Coronavirus

[EVNow]

Biden's top intelligence officials won't rule out lab accident theory for COVID-19 origins

President Biden’s top intelligence chiefs have yet to determine how people first became infected with COVID-19, but they say they haven’t ruled out the possibility that it escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China.

news.yahoo.com

"Intelligence officials" = propaganda / politics.

Biden Brushes Off China’s Complaints, Sends First Delegation to Taiwan

A former U.S. senator and two former U.S. deputy secretaries of state have arrived in Taiwan, leading the first unofficial delegation dispatched by President Biden, amid heightened tensions with Beijing over the future of the self-ruling island.

www.wsj.com

 

[bkp_duke]

"Intelligence officials" = propaganda / politics.

Biden Brushes Off China’s Complaints, Sends First Delegation to Taiwan

A former U.S. senator and two former U.S. deputy secretaries of state have arrived in Taiwan, leading the first unofficial delegation dispatched by President Biden, amid heightened tensions with Beijing over the future of the self-ruling island.

www.wsj.com

Ironic that they are referred to as propaganda in this administration, but in the previous one their word was "iron clad" when it was against that administration.

Just an observation.

 

[TEG]

America is about to hit a 'vaccine wall' as demand drops — with or without Johnson & Johnson

As supply begins to outstrip demand for COVID-19 vaccine, surveys show that vaccine reluctancy may still prevent the U.S. from achieving herd immunity in the pandemic.

news.yahoo.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

America is about to hit a 'vaccine wall' as demand drops — with or without Johnson & Johnson

As supply begins to outstrip demand for COVID-19 vaccine, surveys show that vaccine reluctancy may still prevent the U.S. from achieving herd immunity in the pandemic.

news.yahoo.com

Seems like a GREAT problem to have. Everything sounds good. Definitely time to roll out the messaging to address the hesitancy (which hasn't been done yet really AFAIK). There's no point in hassling people to get a vaccine if it isn't easy to get!

Really good news: Only 21% of people surveyed now say no to the shot. Down from 25% a couple months ago. The trend continues! (This reduction is primarily coming from people under 50 - partly because they are really the only ones who are against the shot, anyway, and partly (in my opinion) because it is now possible for them to get the vaccine, so it's no longer a theoretical question.)

The "unsure" have come down a lot too - converting to yes or vaccinated.

Obviously this is not uniformly distributed, so there will be areas with much less immunity and they will likely suffer a bit as a result (though since the most vulnerable are only 13% "no," the impact should be small and will help keep disease out of these communities). That suffering will likely tend to encourage more vaccination.

Not really too worried, in most areas, though it definitely seems some states will be in trouble if they don't fix their messaging. But you can see from the trends that peer pressure is real, and having peoples' questions answered also helps. A lot of the "no" votes are still likely vaccine hesitant/wait and see folks. Obviously there are large numbers of people (though a small percentage!) who are against it, but again, it's a problem that will solve itself.

https://civiqs.com/results/coronavirus_vaccine?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

 

[EVNow]

Ironic that they are referred to as propaganda in this administration, but in the previous one their word was "iron clad" when it was against that administration.

Just an observation.

I neither subscribe to "Russia is the root of all evil" that HRC fans spread to deflect the fact that she lost an election to the most disqualified person ever to run for president - nor to the idea that KGB is better than CIA.

Just saying

ps : Trust has to be earned. Fool me one etc.

 

[TEG]

Really good news: Only 21% of people surveyed now say no to the shot. Down from 25% a couple months ago. The trend continues! (This reduction is primarily coming from people under 50 - partly because they are really the only ones who are against the shot, anyway, and partly (in my opinion) because it is now possible for them to get the vaccine, so it's no longer a theoretical question.)

Also perhaps some has to do with vaccinated people surviving and thriving. Less worry about short test cycle and unknown side effects.

"Come on in, the water is nice...."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Also perhaps some has to do with vaccinated people surviving and thriving. Less worry about short test cycle and unknown side effects.

"Come on in, the water is nice...."

Yeah, for sure, I think the concerns about fertility etc. that were bounced around the dark corners of the internet will probably be shown to be a lie once the post-COVID baby boom starts. Etc. All of these factors will just get better and better with time, and as time goes by without any problems other than serious allergic reactions to the Pfizer & Moderna (which seem pretty predictable, and thus now extremely rare), the chances of there being any safety issue at all with those vaccines is dropping way off. It's basically a miracle, or a triumph of 30 years of research into mRNA.

I got my Pfizer booster yesterday. I feel completely normal today; sore arm but nothing to write home about. Temperature has stayed below 99 degrees. I guess I got the placebo. Went and did some mountain biking yesterday evening, set some Strava PRs, and plan to zoom around the neighborhood tonight. All is well. I guess this means I would have died for certain, or at least not been asymptomatic, if I had got COVID.

Another study putting protection level of prior COVID infection at around 80%. Seems like that's the likely number, probably a bit higher if there are no variants around, a bit lower if there are. Right in the ballpark of what you'd expect, from the vaccine titers & corresponding measured efficacy. Definitely want to get vaccinated even if you have had COVID (follow the timing recommendations from your doctor of course).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382829830777958400

 

[TespaceX]

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/deliver...80005070026124113112065119&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE

Somewhat interesting study. They compared one dose Pfizer to one dose AZ vaccine after 5 weeks in people over 80yo.

1. Antibody response was pretty much the same from one dose of Pfizer and one dose of AZ.

2. T cell response was markedly weaker with both vaccines, but still 3-fold greater with AZ. This difference held true in both uninfected and previously infected individuals.

3. Previous infection elevated humoral and immune responses significantly with both vaccines.

They acknowledge two dose of Pfizer would illicit a better response, but did not quantity in this study as they were just looking at a one-dose regimen.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

T cell response was markedly weaker with both vaccines, but still 3-fold greater with AZ

I’m curious what an immunologist would say about why this might be. @bkp_duke maybe could comment, if he is feeling his oats.

I don’t really understand why there is a difference, unless the AZ hangs around longer in the system? Or maybe it has something to do with the prefusion stabilized spike in Pfizer, though that typically helps that vaccine by keeping the spike in the stable shape, the one it usually looks like before it fuses with a cell. Not sure why it would impact T-cell strength.

“The mechanisms that lead to improved celluar response are not clear but may potentially relate to an adjuvant effect from the adenovirus vector. “

Adjuvants are weird! Unfortunately apparently they can also lead to crazy antibody responses attacking your platelets or whatever.

 

[byeLT4]

First dose done (yesterday)! Didn't even feel the prick. I have a tiny headache this morning and my arm is sore but other than that I feel fine. Parents got their second dose Tuesday and are fine. They are moving the vaccine site to a smaller venue here in my town. It was at the community center, tons of space and while I was there waiting after the shot I'd say there was maybe 30 people in the 'dome' waiting with me. Worst part about it was no phone service while waiting Second dose scheduled for May 18th.

 

[TespaceX]

Has anyone’s teenage kid here receive a vaccine yet?

A couple reports on my social feeds mentioned that their high school kids had unusual bleeding after their first Pfizer dose, both within the first 12-24 hours. Two cases of first ever nose bleed for 10-15 minutes. Neither ever had a nose bleed in their life that they can remember. (Now that I think about it, I don’t think I ever had one, either).
One of them already got bloodwork done and said everything was fine.

These aren’t people to be lying about such things. After all, both these families are very pro-vaccine and even had their teenage kids get the vaccine.

 

[XLR82XS]

It's not a vaccine - stop calling it that.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It's not a vaccine - stop calling it that.

Lol. Help us out here.

 

[EVNow]

India's new wave is now officially double that of last wave.

The correct way to deal with Covid is to establish TWO targets (# of cases / positivity etc). One would be the floor - when this is hit some measures can be relaxed. The other is the ceiling - if you hit this, measures would be reintroduced.

Having one target has made the Target the floor rather than the ceiling.

A good example is King county (Seattle is part of). As soon as the test positivity of 2% is hit, the county relaxes measures - that push up the cases and the positivity rate ! Its like the speed limit - instead of being the ceiling, it has become the floor.

 

[bkp_duke]

I’m curious what an immunologist would say about why this might be. @bkp_duke maybe could comment, if he is feeling his oats.

I don’t really understand why there is a difference, unless the AZ hangs around longer in the system? Or maybe it has something to do with the prefusion stabilized spike in Pfizer, though that typically helps that vaccine by keeping the spike in the stable shape, the one it usually looks like before it fuses with a cell. Not sure why it would impact T-cell strength.

“The mechanisms that lead to improved celluar response are not clear but may potentially relate to an adjuvant effect from the adenovirus vector. “

Adjuvants are weird! Unfortunately apparently they can also lead to crazy antibody responses attacking your platelets or whatever.

Feeling my oats, eh?

There is not enough data to say, honestly, without digging deep into the construction of both of these vaccines (where in the adenoviral vector they are, what remaining adenovirus genes are expressed, what adjuvant(s) are used, etc., etc.). There are too many unknown variables.

The one commonality of both vaccines (J&J and AZ) that cause rare blood clot problems are both based on adenoviral vectors is . . . interesting.

AV vectors are hard to work with (splice variants are common and difficult to purify out early in the design process - at least 15 years ago when I worked with them). You are putting extra "material" into cells in order to express the desired protein you want to generate an immune response to, and you are exposing the outside of the cells to many more proteins (the AV phospholipid bilayer / membrane proteins). It's difficult to distinguish what "else" you are forming an immune reaction to in addition to your desired "payload" protein.

I would expect these kinds of vaccines to fall out of favor in the future for those based on mRNA technology. It's like using a scalpel vs. a hammer (and old traditional vaccines are akin to sledge hammers, if to continue the analogy). The precision that can be obtained with the mRNA technology is truly revolutionary.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

India's new wave is now officially double that of last wave.

Still not as bad as the US is currently! Depends on how localized their outbreaks are in India, of course, as far as how to judge it. Per capita measurements can be pretty misleading in India. In the US, COVID is for the most part homogeneous at the state level, with some obvious exceptions at any particular point in time, so per capita isn't such a bad measurement.

India should probably do something about this, though; the trajectory is not good. The US should do something about our higher case levels too, but seems like we're banking on the vaccine (not a bad bet). Our trajectory is at least sort of stable. For now.

For tracking purposes, here's Eric Topol's variant/scariant info tracker; B.1.617 may be driving the spread in India, though there are likely just societal factors as well:

 

[uujjj2]

Goes to show you the reason why clinical trials usually last years to show comprehensive data. Right now, everyone getting a vaccine under EUA is basically in an extended phase 3 trial.
I’m pro-vaccine, I’ve gotten the Pfizer vaccine, and I hope people will as well. But, it’s been my belief that vaccines should not be forced or required under EUA.

Clinical trials usually don't last years actually. Clinical trials are often too short.

One of my family members has a rare, slow-moving chronic condition, and I pay close attention to clinical trials for treatments. I've been struck by the mismatch between the very slow (like over decades) progression of the chronic condition and the short 3 to 12 month timeframes for all the clinical trials. Ya no duh all these trials are failing! They're way the heck too short!

 

[Dave EV]

First dose done (yesterday)! Didn't even feel the prick. I have a tiny headache this morning and my arm is sore but other than that I feel fine.

Had my first Pfizer yesterday morning. Arm gradually got more sore yesterday through the day, more than I can recall with other vaccines. Started feeling moderately tired late afternoon, but nothing to change normal behavior. Arm still a bit sore now, but getting better.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Got my first shot yesterday in a nearby town of ~20k. Moderna. No fever or anything. I stopped on the way home and bench pressed for the first time in a while, now my upper left arm where I got the shot and chest are about equally sore.

Easy and efficient process, in and out in 15 minutes. The way public health should work. I'd guess they give a couple hundred shots per hour and I think yesterday's event lasted 6-8 hours. So maybe 1500 total shots. Follow-up is 33 days, they'll e-mail that week with choice of time slots.

 

[FlatSix911]

Still not as bad as the US is currently! Depends on how localized their outbreaks are in India, of course, as far as how to judge it. Per capita measurements can be pretty misleading in India. In the US, COVID is for the most part homogeneous at the state level, with some obvious exceptions at any particular point in time, so per capita isn't such a bad measurement.

India should probably do something about this, though; the trajectory is not good. The US should do something about our higher case levels too, but seems like we're banking on the vaccine (not a bad bet). Our trajectory is at least sort of stable. For now. For tracking purposes, here's Eric Topol's variant/scariant info tracker; B.1.617 may be driving the spread in India, though there are likely just societal factors as well: View attachment 654333

New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Have countries flattened the curve? Daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases for the most affected countries over time.

coronavirus.jhu.edu