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Yes, no comparison really. The future is grim in India because
- Vaccination is slow
- The efficacy is lower (not mRNA)
- Even though 400M might have already been infected first time (estimates) / vaccinated - that still leaves 800M !
 
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I made it very very clear I was looking at per capita numbers - I even said you had to be careful when using per capita measurements particularly for very large countries like the United States and India - they can be very misleading. The India situation is very bad and they may well exceed our per capita case rate (7-day avg of course) this week (it almost certainly will I think).

I also spoke of the trajectory; really clearly bad in India.


My point was that if India seems bad, you should also take a look at the United States; we would have a 7-day average of 280k cases while India has only 218k 7-day average if we had the same population.
 
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meanwhile in Oz
We are presumably the first country with a sizable cohort (18-49 yr female) that has had more AstraZeneca Covid19 Vaccine deaths than Covid19 deaths (for that cohort)

1618813733186.png



nil Covid-19 deaths for female 18-49 yr old
1 ChAdOx1-S COVID-19 vaccine death 48yr old female
 
we would have a 7-day average of 280k cases while India has only 218k 7-day average if we had the same population.
Obviously India could be undercounting cases significantly. It’s hard to calculate exactly by how much. Historically India’s CFR is actually only ~2/3 that of the US, but they have a MUCH younger population so you might expect it to be something like 1/3 of the US death rate (this is a WAG - you’d have to look at population pyramids to figure out exactly how the IFR and CFR would differ) if ascertainment rates were the same. So perhaps if India had the same amount of testing coverage as the US they’d be finding twice as many cases as they are. Which makes them already worse per capita than we are currently, but still not as bad as the US winter wave. Soon though, probably!

But these CFR metrics are increasingly useless as vaccinations continue.

Anyway, it is really bad in India. We’ll have to see how high the death rates go. Hopefully they vaccinated their elderly first.
 
‘Double Mutant’ Covid Variant: Here’s What We Know As Israel Reports Vaccine Efficacy Against Variant First Detected In India

"Israeli health officials on Tuesday reported the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is at least partially effective against the potentially worrisome Indian variant of the coronavirus which has been rapidly spreading in India’s worst-hit Covid-19 hotspots and is being viewed as the likely culprit behind the country’s devastating second wave.

The B.1.617 or “double mutant” Indian variant carries two mutations including the L452R and E484Q which have been seen separately before in other variants but never together in one variant.

The L425R mutation which has been spotted in fast-spreading variants in California can reportedly increase the binding power of the virus’ spike proteins with human cells, making it more transmissible and can also potentially increase viral replication.

The E484Q is reportedly similar to the E484K mutation found in the U.K. and South African variants of the coronavirus which have shown to lower the effectiveness of antibodies generated by a vaccine or a previous bout of Covid-19.

Experts in India have expressed concern about the purported high transmissibility of double mutant variant as almost 60% of all positive cases in India’s Covid-19 epicenter, Maharashtra, have been caused by the B.1.617 variant.

The concerning variant has now also been detected in several countries including the U.K., U.S., Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Germany and several others prompting travel bans and or advisories.

Israel on Tuesday registered eight cases caused by the Indian variant—mostly among people arriving from abroad—and reported that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine “has efficacy against it, albeit a reduced efficacy,” Reuters reported.
---------------------------------
Vaccinate the world or continue to keep dealing with new mutations.
 
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‘Double Mutant’ Covid Variant: Here’s What We Know As Israel Reports Vaccine Efficacy Against Variant First Detected In India

"Israeli health officials on Tuesday reported the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is at least partially effective against the potentially worrisome Indian variant of the coronavirus which has been rapidly spreading in India’s worst-hit Covid-19 hotspots and is being viewed as the likely culprit behind the country’s devastating second wave.

The B.1.617 or “double mutant” Indian variant carries two mutations including the L452R and E484Q which have been seen separately before in other variants but never together in one variant.

The L425R mutation which has been spotted in fast-spreading variants in California can reportedly increase the binding power of the virus’ spike proteins with human cells, making it more transmissible and can also potentially increase viral replication.

The E484Q is reportedly similar to the E484K mutation found in the U.K. and South African variants of the coronavirus which have shown to lower the effectiveness of antibodies generated by a vaccine or a previous bout of Covid-19.

Experts in India have expressed concern about the purported high transmissibility of double mutant variant as almost 60% of all positive cases in India’s Covid-19 epicenter, Maharashtra, have been caused by the B.1.617 variant.

The concerning variant has now also been detected in several countries including the U.K., U.S., Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Germany and several others prompting travel bans and or advisories.

Israel on Tuesday registered eight cases caused by the Indian variant—mostly among people arriving from abroad—and reported that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine “has efficacy against it, albeit a reduced efficacy,” Reuters reported.
---------------------------------
Vaccinate the world or continue to keep dealing with new mutations.

The problem is that we have death cults hoping for armageddon.
 
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I think that in some places, the future is already here. In Chatham County GA, vaccination rates have basically already plateaued, and at a much lower level than that required for aspirational herd immunity. The data in the chart below is confirmed by the trickle of cars making their way through local "mass vaccination" sites. Picture the lines of cars you see at big stadiums on TV. Contrast that with here, where this week they're down to ~1 car every 10 minutes. Vaccine eligibility here has been open to pretty much all adults for a couple of weeks now, and there is a large majority of people who are just choosing not to be vaccinated.
1618936665420.png

Once the lines are drawn between the vaccinated and the un-vaccinated, (and by the way, the unvaccinated are also most likely to be un-masked and un-social distanced), the only thing that's left is for Covid to slowly burn its way through that population. There may be parts of the country that can nearly snuff this thing out. But in others, it's just going to be bad, and it will probably for a long time.

The question for me, now that I'm vaccinated is, how am I going to conduct myself as Darwinism plays out before our eyes? People have made a choice that I don't agree with, but that's free will. So disappointing. I was totally on board with protecting people who are innocently unprotected. But protecting those who actively choose to take that risk? Not sure I'm willing to do that long term.
 
I think that in some places, the future is already here. In Chatham County GA, vaccination rates have basically already plateaued, and at a much lower level than that required for aspirational herd immunity. The data in the chart below is confirmed by the trickle of cars making their way through local "mass vaccination" sites. Picture the lines of cars you see at big stadiums on TV. Contrast that with here, where this week they're down to ~1 car every 10 minutes. Vaccine eligibility here has been open to pretty much all adults for a couple of weeks now, and there is a large majority of people who are just choosing not to be vaccinated.
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Once the lines are drawn between the vaccinated and the un-vaccinated, (and by the way, the unvaccinated are also most likely to be un-masked and un-social distanced), the only thing that's left is for Covid to slowly burn its way through that population. There may be parts of the country that can nearly snuff this thing out. But in others, it's just going to be bad, and it will probably for a long time.

The question for me, now that I'm vaccinated is, how am I going to conduct myself as Darwinism plays out before our eyes? People have made a choice that I don't agree with, but that's free will. So disappointing. I was totally on board with protecting people who are innocently unprotected. But protecting those who actively choose to take that risk? Not sure I'm willing to do that long term.
Undoubtedly some areas will never reach great levels. But overall, you have to keep in mind that we have not yet really made any outreach efforts to encourage vaccination. When there is ample vaccine available I would expect that effort to ramp up. But yeah, definitely seems likely that some communities will do the “slow burn.” It’s a little hard to predict how it will work out. It’s a feedback system, which will tend to encourage more vaccination, so that is good. We’ll see!

Rather than overall vaccination rates, it’s nice to focus on percentage of people over 50 (or 65) vaccinated. Those numbers are probably getting high in Chatham, though certainly not high enough. While many people will still die completely avoidable deaths, we can tolerate coronavirus death tolls at a rate of 10-40k deaths per year, which is likely what we would see (average years of life lost will likely be over 25 years in that group). And that sort of death demographic profile will increase awareness and encourage people to get vaccinated.


The question for me, now that I'm vaccinated is, how am I going to conduct myself as Darwinism plays out before our eyes?

I’m going to continue to wear my N95 mask inside (no more P100; it is back in storage), because it protects me by lowering any dose I receive. And I’ll continue to dine outdoors exclusively (probably the main accommodation I will have to make). I honestly don’t really worry about others’ choices. Anyone I know personally who isn’t vaccinated, I’ll probably ostracize; fortunately that’s currently only a thought experiment; I know of no such people.
 
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This is about the same as the prior week as I recall. Vaccine doses level now at a rate consistent with 4 million doses per day (so I expect us to ramp slowly back to that level in the next week assuming demand remains high, which I expect for a little longer).

It'll be nice to have J&J back later this week. In all the hand wringing about the J&J pause, I think it's been overlooked that J&J is still making that vaccine (not in the US though), so there will likely be ample supply immediately when the pause is ended. So the effect would be a week or so shift in time of some vaccinations (of course at the cost of some lives), doubling up in the coming weeks. Hopefully they won't limit the age, and will just provide a warning to be on the lookout for the exceedingly rare side effects, since these vaccines are important for reaching the hard to reach (which also increases the risk of these side effects not being properly treated, of course). We'll see.
 
Rather than overall vaccination rates, it’s nice to focus on percentage of people over 50 (or 65) vaccinated. Those numbers are probably getting high in Chatham, though certainly not high enough.
Yes, the local elderly vaccination rate is comparatively good.
1618943297592.png

I honestly don’t really worry about others’ choices. Anyone I know personally who isn’t vaccinated, I’ll probably ostracize; fortunately that’s currently only a thought experiment; I know of no such people.
I have a variety of social circles. At work, in the tech sector, yesterday I was outraged to see an unmasked foreign visitor roaming my building looking for a restroom. But when I (vaccinated) went out to play volleyball last night for the first time in 13 months, there were 20+ people in a gym acting like there is no pandemic whatsoever. And based on the chart above, I'd bet that less than 20% are vaccinated. They have made their choice... a completely different socio/economic/political/ethnic/cultural group. SMH
 
Back to the rock climbing gym today (N95 + safety glasses, 6.5 days out from second Pfizer, so not fully vaccinated, but oh, so close), 25% capacity, reservations only, masks mandatory. Followed by beer (outside) and bean and cheese burritos (outside). Just 200 cases daily in San Diego, so probably pretty safe! It’s been 13 months. COVID is over. Hopefully. I will be just living my life from now on, except with a mask and appropriate easy precautions, when it seems advisable. Will try to roughly follow CDC guidance.

We’ll see. Everyone just needs to do what they can to encourage the vaccine hesitant to come along and join the party (not clear they ever left, of course). It is so satisfying to be vaccinated. The vaccines really work, most of the time.
 
Back to the rock climbing gym today (N95 + safety glasses, 6.5 days out from second Pfizer, so not fully vaccinated, but oh, so close), 25% capacity, reservations only, masks mandatory. Followed by beer (outside) and bean and cheese burritos (outside). Just 200 cases daily in San Diego, so probably pretty safe! It’s been 13 months. COVID is over. Hopefully. I will be just living my life from now on, except with a mask and appropriate easy precautions, when it seems advisable. Will try to roughly follow CDC guidance.

We’ll see. Everyone just needs to do what they can to encourage the vaccine hesitant to come along and join the party (not clear they ever left, of course). It is so satisfying to be vaccinated. The vaccines really work, most of the time.

Beer, bean and cheese? That needs to be done outside even without COVID. LOL