Coronavirus

[byeLT4]

Unlike the reporting of the wreck in Tesla wreck in Texas, I waited to get all the facts before I posted a headline like- My coworker got very sick from her first dose of Moderna, and it is a good thing I did. Turns out she was exposed and actually had the virus. She had 8 days of fever with a high during that time of 102.8, trouble breathing/catching her breath. She is in her 50s although she could pass for mid 30s and is in great shape. Honestly, after seeing her yesterday, it was the first time you could tell she was an older woman, just, looked so tired She still gets winded very easily and says she has very little energy. It sucks because she was really good about masking but might have let her guard down around family, I believe I overheard she was exposed from her sister.

 

[eevee-fan]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/world-s-most-vaccinated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

What's missing in the article is whether the infections now are as severe as before vaccine. But it's all click-bait journalism nowadays, so I guess the important thing is to get the story out for a click with no investigative work.

 

[jerry33]

What's missing in the article is whether the infections now are as severe as before vaccine. But it's all click-bait journalism nowadays, so I guess the important thing is to get the story out for a click with no investigative work.

Or to frame the story the way your advertisers want it.

 

[EVNow]

Or to frame the story the way your advertisers want it.

Now-a-days its all so automated ... advertisers don't even know where the ads are showing up. All managed by Google and other platforms.

So, all that websites/media tries to do is get as many many eyeballs as possible. The editors experiment with headlines and pick the one that seems to catch the most attention.

 

[eevee-fan]

Now-a-days its all so automated ... advertisers don't even know where the ads are showing up. All managed by Google and other platforms.

So, all that websites/media tries to do is get as many many eyeballs as possible. The editors experiment with headlines and pick the one that seems to catch the most attention.

Helps to use misleading headlines like Electrek and InsideEV too. LOL

 

[EVNow]

The vaccines will need to get approval first (not just EUA) I believe. For example, the California public universities, as well as many private universities, have said they will require it only when approval is given.

When is the EUA expected ? I guess EUA for kids won't be available until '22 fall.

 

[EVNow]

Helps to use misleading headlines like Electrek and InsideEV too. LOL

Well, if misleading headlines get the most clicks.

 

[EVNow]

The funniest thing is 'Dear Leader' got his vaccine. LOL

Its all a PR game. Unfortunately on both sides. As long as you can get your votes, doesn't matter how many get killed. Biden insisted on going ahead with in-person primary in Florida to make sure he can win the nomination, for eg.

 

[eevee-fan]

Its all a PR game. Unfortunately on both sides. As long as you can get your votes, doesn't matter how many get killed. Biden insisted on going ahead with in-person primary in Florida to make sure he can win the nomination, for eg.

I guess both parties feel FL residents are expendable.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Thats what makes it difficult to achieve. Unless by now most Trump culture war fans have been infected ...

I think it's a surprisingly large number at this point. The CDC says:

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

This is confusing...but...they're using 26.6 million cases from a while back (current case count is 32 million according to CDC) to project 114 million infections. So moving that estimate forward, that works out to be 138 million (4.3*32 million). That's 42%. I think that's high, and the low end of their CI is 114 million (34.5%) which seems more reasonable to me. It's a preliminary estimate, subject to change, in any case.

But 35% is a lot of immunity! It's just not nearly enough to stop exponential growth (and exponential growth is bad - "slow" exponential growth is still stunningly fast). The vaccinations have nearly finished the job at this point, though. Just need to remove another 10% (33 million people) or so from the susceptible pool, most likely.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/world-s-most-vaccinated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

Umm...they're not getting an mRNA vaccine. What's the efficacy? This matters! (Though also a close eye should be kept on mortality associated with this case surge - I suspect it will be relatively low). The Sinopharm vaccine has efficacy around 50% (who knows what it actually is but it's unlikely to be 90%+).

Also, who's getting infected?

We are truly blessed with bougie vaccines in the US. They are a gift from God. It's almost like He wants us to get it as part of His plan.

 

[EVNow]

But 35% is a lot of immunity! It's just not nearly enough to stop exponential growth (and exponential growth is bad - "slow" exponential growth is still stunningly fast). The vaccinations have nearly finished the job at this point, though. Just need to remove another 10% (33 million people) or so from the susceptible pool, most likely.

I think the problem we might face is that a large number of people - who interact with each other are going to be unvaccinated. Even if they have had Covid - they are going to be susceptible to new variants. They are there not just in "red" states - but everywhere. This keeps the count high (even if stable) and we could continue in this weird state where the risk is not all that high - but still high enough to not resume normal activities for next few months. And then all it needs is a new variant that is deadlier and we'll see another wave.

They are talking about paying people to get vaccinated. Hopefully that will entice the fence sitters.

 

[eevee-fan]

I think the problem we might face is that a large number of people - who interact with each other are going to be unvaccinated. Even if they have had Covid - they are going to be susceptible to new variants. They are there not just in "red" states - but everywhere. This keeps the count high (even if stable) and we could continue in this weird state where the risk is not all that high - but still high enough to not resume normal activities for next few months. And then all it needs is a new variant that is deadlier and we'll see another wave.

They are talking about paying people to get vaccinated. Hopefully that will entice the fence sitters.

Almost like Pizza Gatez...

 

[EVNow]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/world-s-most-vaccinated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

Wonder how much it has to do with India - Seychelles is a popular destination for Indians.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

but still high enough to not resume normal activities for next few months. And then all it needs is a new variant that is deadlier and we'll see another wave.

Even if they have had Covid - they are going to be susceptible to new variants.

Yes, this is all possible. But that's why I assumed 60% immunity efficacy for a prior infection in the estimates above - probably fairly reasonable for the variants with immune escape characteristics.

I do think what you're saying is likely to happen to some extent. But the effect of 10% more vaccination, no matter who it is, will be dramatic. Of course, local communities with very low vaccination rates will see outbreaks - I do think that's right. But overall I expect the case numbers to plummet from their current levels if we can get 10-15% more people vaccinated (which I think is very likely).

People getting COVID in these under-vaccinated communities will also help.

I do think lots of incentives for the people who are laggards on vaccination is a good thing. No reason not to I think given the safety profile of the mRNA products.

 

[EVNow]

Of course, local communities with very low vaccination rates will see outbreaks - I do think that's right.

I think what is missing is the fact that this "local community" is everywhere ! Its not a geographically distinct community - but an ideological one. Those people are among us (looking at my NextDoor messages) - they meet with each other a lot (Churches!) - and they interact with rest of us too. Among them the % with any kind of immunity might be quite low, and mostly through earlier infections. That "community" looks more like India than the mRNA vaccinated community.

Seriously, Biden should enlist the help of Republicans to get those vaccinated (may be through churches). Good thing is Republican leaders are not overtly anti-Vaccine now - so, there is a window of opportunity here. After all - he kept talking about "bi-partisanship" and if he can't get it here, he for sure isn't getting that anywhere else (unless he wants to bomb some brown people).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That "community" looks more like India than mRNA community.

I don't know about that. Look at the elderly community vaccination rates and stated plans for vaccination, regardless of party affiliation. The problem with India is that they have neither immunity from infection (basically no one has had COVID!), nor do they have any significant immunity from vaccination.

I agree these vulnerable communities are in all states. I do think we're going to see exactly what you suggest. However, the NUMBERS will be much lower than where we're currently at, and these outbreaks will tend to fizzle rather than propagate. It's just going to look very very different from our current situation, where infections are dropping but not all that low.

Seriously, Biden should enlist the help of Republicans to get those vaccinated (may be through churches)

I'm pretty sure he's trying. I think the issue is that it's important to try not to make it too politicized (more so than it already is). I think the current push is to make it easy to get vaccinated (no appointments, no searching, etc.), which is a good next step.

 

[EVNow]

I'm pretty sure he's trying. I think the issue is that it's important to try not to make it too politicized (more so than it already is). I think the current push is to make it easy to get vaccinated (no appointments, no searching, etc.), which is a good next step.

You can't politicize it more than it already is.

The problem with India is that they have neither immunity from infection (basically no one has had COVID!),

Not really - the first wave may have infected 300M people ... leaving 900M for the second wave.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not really - the first wave may have infected 300M people ... leaving 900M for the second wave.

Seems unlikely - otherwise we'd have seen the current situation in the first surge. I know there were a lot of people claiming herd immunity in various places, but I've seen no good evidence that there has been infection at that level. India did a good job at first with suppressing infection. Trying to contain the virus really works!

(I'd estimate maximum infections in India to date at around 200M, just after perusing a little literature (that would pencil out to ~700k deaths taking into account their younger population) . But it's really hard to say; this is a total WAG. But that's just 14% of the population - a totally different situation than the US finds itself in. India would have had to have seen 500M infections to be in a similar situation to the US.)

 

[TespaceX]

Got my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday morning and by late evening, I felt like I was a defenseless punching bag at a UFC gym.
Fever, headache, chills, fatigue, pain at injection site, and general muscle weakness.

Interestingly, all my siblings and all of Mrs. siblings experienced this same gamut of side effects.