uujjj2
Member
I don't know if I buy IHME's numbers for the US. The CDC only has 628k excess deaths over the course of the pandemic through late April. That's larger than the official 561k deaths, but far short of IHME's 900k.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
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Which models do you prefer? Blondes, brunettes, redheads, raven hair beauties?
Sorry it's been one of those days.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is a little tricky. I’ve seen estimates for adjusted excess deaths closer to 700k but it depends on overall trends of mortality. But yeah 900k seems way high. My guess is at most we missed about 75k COVID deaths - and that’s an upper bound; not sure it exceeded 50k.
We’ll see how it turns out... in a couple years. Really hard to just guess. Lots of analysis needed, and even then will be plenty of uncertainty.
The first step is definitely to understand what were the actual excess deaths - and when and where they occurred, so they can be correlated (or not) with local disease burden and seasonal factors.
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I can see the COVID restrictions (masks, distancing) resulting in fewer deaths from things like meningitis, flu, other contagions. Thus more actual COVID deaths beyond the estimated excess deaths actually related to COVID. But 50% higher does seem way too high.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
There's some amateur and professional analysis of this at this point, but it's TBD exactly what happened.
This guy has some more recent analyses as well (vs. time), not linked to here, but you can just look at his TL.
uujjj2
Member
There's a big jump in "Causes not listed here". Perhaps there's a lot of undiagnosed, uncounted at-home COVID deaths here. But that's still ~60k, not 300k.
A few other things stand out. The big jumps in Alzheimer's seems odd. Same with diabetes. Nursing homes covering up COVID? That could be another 20k, still far from 300k.
A few other things stand out. The big jumps in Alzheimer's seems odd. Same with diabetes. Nursing homes covering up COVID? That could be another 20k, still far from 300k.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes. This is of course only through the end of 2020 and there were a lot of deaths in January-March, but generally I'd expect counting of deaths to be better this year than last year - so 300k still seems very difficult to get to. (He's also done an analysis of when the excess deaths not associated with COVID occurred - and the excesses were generally front loaded to earlier in 2020, and generally correlated with surges in COVID...generally as one would expect. In the final surge of 2020, the excess death not related to COVID was much less prominent - suggesting possibly that we were actually catching most COVID-related mortality by that point.)
Still, just because excess non-COVID deaths are correlated with surges doesn't necessarily mean they are from COVID. Undoubtedly some of them are - but changes in ability to access timely care also leads to increased mortality. So getting that all untangled will be a lot of work!
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Navajo Nation is now about 58-60% fully vaccinated (with another 10-15% partially vaccinated).
They've seen generally good results, though cases have not gone to zero - presumably due to non-uniformity. Similar results in the US would take us to something around the 5k-10k daily case level.
Their overall population fatality rate ended up (for now) at ~0.7%. (The IFR would be higher.)
They've seen generally good results, though cases have not gone to zero - presumably due to non-uniformity. Similar results in the US would take us to something around the 5k-10k daily case level.
Their overall population fatality rate ended up (for now) at ~0.7%. (The IFR would be higher.)
My mother, who died in early March 2020, had AHD and Alzheimer's as her cause of death. No COVID tests then for people who died at home or in nursing homes. At that point they had been closed to visitors for several weeks so I hadn't visited her for 3 weeks prior to her death. She was end stage old age so her death wasn't a surprise but she might have lingered on longer. So who knows.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I should add it might be better because Navajo nation is dealing with unscreened introductions from outside, which the US as a while would not have to deal with as much.
This is the great thing about vaccinations - even if they are “only” 75% effective, if that’s enough to get on the correct side of the exponential, it drives your probability of infection to zero rapidly (since it is a multiplier of exposure probability and vaccine efficacy). Herd effects FTW! Holding out hope for this in the US. Will be much more clear when we get to over 50-55% fully vaccinated.
CDC accepting COVID-19 home tests for international flights to US
On Friday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its COVID-19 testing requirements to accept home tests for international travelers flying to the U.S.
www.foxnews.com
Just saw this on my Google News. Coming from FAUX news, this is suspect. Any other news outlet confirming this?
Update: Checked CDC site, looks like this is the real deal.
COVID-19 and Your Health
Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.
Does a self-test meet the conditions of the Order?
International air passengers traveling to the United States can use a self-test (sometimes referred to as home test) that meets the following criteria:
The test must be a SARS-CoV-2 viral test (nucleic acid amplification test [NAAT] or antigen test) with Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
The testing procedure must include a telehealth service affiliated with the manufacturer of the test that provides real-time supervision remotely through an audio and video connection. Some FDA-authorized self-tests that include a telehealth service may require a prescription.
The telehealth provider must confirm the person’s identity, observe the specimen collection and testing procedures, confirm the test result, and issue a report that meets the requirements of CDC’s Order (see “What information must be included in the test result?” below).
Airlines and other aircraft operators must be able to review and confirm the person’s identity and the test result details. The passenger must also be able to present the documentation of test results to U.S. officials at the port of entry and local/state health departments, if requested.
For travelers who test positive, CDC recommends the telehealth provider report positive test results to relevant public health authorities in the traveler’s location following local requirements. The telehealth provider should also counsel the traveler on what they and their close contacts should do. This would include not traveling until they complete isolation (if infected) or quarantine (if exposed), in accordance with local requirements.
Some countries may restrict importation of tests that are not authorized or registered there. Travelers who are considering bringing a U.S.-authorized test with them for use outside of the United States should contact authorities at their destination for information before they travel.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Seems fine.CDC accepting COVID-19 home tests for international flights to US
On Friday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its COVID-19 testing requirements to accept home tests for international travelers flying to the U.S.
Just saw this on my Google News. Coming from FAUX news, this is suspect. Any other news outlet confirming this?
Update: Checked CDC site, looks like this is the real deal.
COVID-19 and Your Health
Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.www.cdc.gov
Does a self-test meet the conditions of the Order?
International air passengers traveling to the United States can use a self-test (sometimes referred to as home test) that meets the following criteria:
The test must be a SARS-CoV-2 viral test (nucleic acid amplification test [NAAT] or antigen test) with Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
The testing procedure must include a telehealth service affiliated with the manufacturer of the test that provides real-time supervision remotely through an audio and video connection. Some FDA-authorized self-tests that include a telehealth service may require a prescription.
The telehealth provider must confirm the person’s identity, observe the specimen collection and testing procedures, confirm the test result, and issue a report that meets the requirements of CDC’s Order (see “What information must be included in the test result?” below).
Airlines and other aircraft operators must be able to review and confirm the person’s identity and the test result details. The passenger must also be able to present the documentation of test results to U.S. officials at the port of entry and local/state health departments, if requested.
For travelers who test positive, CDC recommends the telehealth provider report positive test results to relevant public health authorities in the traveler’s location following local requirements. The telehealth provider should also counsel the traveler on what they and their close contacts should do. This would include not traveling until they complete isolation (if infected) or quarantine (if exposed), in accordance with local requirements.
Some countries may restrict importation of tests that are not authorized or registered there. Travelers who are considering bringing a U.S.-authorized test with them for use outside of the United States should contact authorities at their destination for information before they travel.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
If you didn't watch SNL Elon finally capitulated on Covid 19 and mask wearing.
The skit isn't up yet but will be at https://www.youtube.com/snl/videos soon I'm sure. They already have the monologue and several skits from the episode posted.
edit it's up now: it's
The skit isn't up yet but will be at https://www.youtube.com/snl/videos soon I'm sure. They already have the monologue and several skits from the episode posted.
edit it's up now: it's
I didn't watch it live as I expected it to be a miss and the stock to take a dump on Monday, but watching the clips it was rather good. Musk should keep his day job but he was funny. Decent material. And TSLA will still take a dump on Monday.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Fox is fine for actual news. Its their opinion and commentary that you need to be weary of.
ps : I'd say the same thing with other major news networks too.
Or maybe she's just trying to get free publicity. Well, at least this may get more people to get vaccinated.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
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