Well, if there's any doubt whether the vaccine is working or not, I think this chart tells it all.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Well, if there's any doubt whether the vaccine is working or not, I think this chart tells it all.
Not sure if county sites near me closing is a good or bad thing.
If this means that CVS/Walgreens/etc are ramping up, that's probably better as those are more accessible. I also hear that that instead of the vax pods, they will put more effort into mobile vax units which is also good.
A group of guys I used to play pick-up basketball with are all vaccinated and we just played for the first time in 14 months (outdoors obv)... that was pretty fun. Hopefully I can lose all this Covid weight I've gained.
If this means that CVS/Walgreens/etc are ramping up, that's probably better as those are more accessible. I also hear that that instead of the vax pods, they will put more effort into mobile vax units which is also good.
A group of guys I used to play pick-up basketball with are all vaccinated and we just played for the first time in 14 months (outdoors obv)... that was pretty fun. Hopefully I can lose all this Covid weight I've gained.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
It's surely helping but I want to see this graph after school starts up in the fall. If we have these 4 humps and then a flat line for the summer and fall of 2021 or even a tiny hump in fall that would be a victory for sure.
A third of vaccine skeptics would accept COVID-19 shot if offered $100
A UCLA study of yet-to-be vaccinated Americans found 34% would be more likely to get the jab when offered $100. But public health experts warn there's a 'thin line between incentivizing and coercion'.
So it's like those college students volunteering for experiments to get some cash. Sad state.
In NV, we have drive through service, that is innovative and matches well with driving an EV... no pollution while enjoying AC in the car for the 15 min wait after vaccination.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Possible conflicts of interest regarding the lab leak hypothesis.
This is a politics show. Sagaar Enjeti is cast as the “Republican conservative” co-host. This was his rant of the day for this episode. Ignore him. The actual underlying article is available here:
The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?
If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.
thebulletin.org
Also here:
Origin of CovidâââFollowing the Clues
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendasâ¦
nicholaswade.medium.com
I haven’t carefully read through it yet but I guess I’ll be doing that now. As I understand it from reading other people’s summaries, it presents various evidence (some of which is allegedly “cherry-picked”) and apparently ends with a bunch of somewhat inflammatory speculation.
The author was a long-time mainstream science writer at the New York Times. Seems like a credible guy, right?
However, since leaving the paper, he wrote a book on race and supposed genetic influences on behavior that is approved of by white supremacists and some intellectual race theorists like Charles Murray and is denounced by genetic scientists.
Background on the author:
A leading expert on viral genetics picks apart a key quote from the highly-influential virologist David Baltimore in the Nicholas Wade article:
Tweet thread:
Tweet thread:
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4 days from qualifying for the vaccine... 
Well, at least she's good now.
Well, at least she's good now.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
B.1.617
www.cnbc.com
WHO classifies triple-mutant Covid variant from India as global health risk
Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead for Covid-19, said the agency will provide more details in its situation report Tuesday.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is good news. Good that it hasn't reached the level of Variant of High Consequence, and excellent news that vaccines are still highly effective. Not great for India of course, or people who have had prior infection but no vaccination.B.1.617
WHO classifies triple-mutant Covid variant from India as global health risk
Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead for Covid-19, said the agency will provide more details in its situation report Tuesday.
Keep those fingers crossed that the virus has nothing else to throw at us!
The CNBC article has a "tell" that it is not particularly informative, because they call it a "triple mutant" (which is mostly meaningless).
We'll see what additional details the WHO provides tomorrow - obviously the key point (for the US) is what efficacy level has been measured with the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines - but I imagine they only have data on the AZ and the other vaccine in India.
It would be good if the US would start introducing vaccination requirements for incoming international travelers, in addition to the testing, at some point, though.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
4 days from qualifying for the vaccine...
Apparently she seems to think that the disease provides the same immunity as a vaccine. Hopefully in a couple months when it's medically recommended (I guess you're supposed to wait a bit) she'll get the vaccine to give herself a bit broader protection than the 80-90% (same variant) protection. She does say she's only protected for several months so hopefully she'll advance her vaccination plans to the earliest recommended date.
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I’ve seen claims on Twitter that the India B.1.617 variant overpowered B.1.1.7 in India and is showing signs of doing so now in the UK. As far as I know, 617 seems to be handled well by the vaccines but I haven’t seen much data.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah tough to know. Kind of easy to be lulled into a false sense of complacency with all the false alarms so far. The B.1.1.7 wasn't really a false alarm exactly - it's clearly more contagious (how much so, no one seems to know). But all the other scariants have basically resulted in very little immune escape - though variants like B.1.351 I would still expect to eventually have some sort of competitive advantage in under-vaccinated communities. They clearly have SOME immune escape - it's just not apparently enough to worry about if we get vaccination levels high enough (though what happens over time as immunity wanes, we will see...). And there's a lot more to immunity than neutralizing antibodies, even when it comes to herd immunity thresholds.
With samples like the above, it's super hard to draw any conclusion - the import rate may be dependent on which communities in India are spreading which variant, etc., and which of those communities travel to the UK. And travelers & their close contacts would be screened more heavily than other people so determining growth rates is difficult. Especially with such reduced case rates in the UK itself...it's just a very confusing picture. Add on top of that that AZ vaccine in the UK (part of population) and how it does with B.1.617 is not representative of potential US results.
As far as overpowering B.1.1.7 I suppose it could have been at a slight advantage to B.1.1.7 because it has immune escape characteristics so the 10-20% heterogeneous population natural immunity (or whatever it was prior to the latest wave) in India could have been nullified a bit. Just really hard to say and the data is really sparse.
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
When you have no valid argument... attack the presenter. Try listening to other points of view before you dismiss... you may learn something.This is a politics show. Sagaar Enjeti is cast as the “Republican conservative” co-host. This was his rant of the day for this episode. Ignore him. The actual underlying article is available here:Also here:The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?
If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.I haven’t carefully read through it yet but I guess I’ll be doing that now. As I understand it from reading other people’s summaries, it presents various evidence (some of which is allegedly “cherry-picked”) and apparently ends with a bunch of somewhat inflammatory speculation.Origin of CovidâââFollowing the Clues
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendasâ¦
The author was a long-time mainstream science writer at the New York Times. Seems like a credible guy, right?
However, since leaving the paper, he wrote a book on race and supposed genetic influences on behavior that is approved of by white supremacists and some intellectual race theorists like Charles Murray and is denounced by genetic scientists.Background on the author:
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Maybe this is one analysis you saw?
Anyway, guess we will see. I do have concerns about immune escape from the AZ vaccine; at least I recall that being a potential issue. We’ll see if it ends up being a factor here.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, I saw that.
Another follow up (but note not identical to B.1.617.2 - though close, it probably has key differences as Trevor mentioned - whether that deletion and substitution makes a difference in neutralization is TBD).
To be clear: this is good news if it holds for B.1.617.2 - puts it on the similar footing to B.1.351 - which is neutralized well enough by mRNA (~75% efficacy) - though is likely to have some fitness advantage in immunized populations.
The travel restrictions are not nearly strict enough, of course. Just a matter of time before this virus variant is widespread in the US, though it clearly could be prevented with appropriate policy. For this sort of thing we want to buy as much time as possible - if it’s six months before it establishes here then we’ll likely be fine because we’ll have boosters which have some cross-protection.
Another follow up (but note not identical to B.1.617.2 - though close, it probably has key differences as Trevor mentioned - whether that deletion and substitution makes a difference in neutralization is TBD).
To be clear: this is good news if it holds for B.1.617.2 - puts it on the similar footing to B.1.351 - which is neutralized well enough by mRNA (~75% efficacy) - though is likely to have some fitness advantage in immunized populations.
The travel restrictions are not nearly strict enough, of course. Just a matter of time before this virus variant is widespread in the US, though it clearly could be prevented with appropriate policy. For this sort of thing we want to buy as much time as possible - if it’s six months before it establishes here then we’ll likely be fine because we’ll have boosters which have some cross-protection.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Overall the consensus seems to be that this is just another scariant. I would say we don’t have neutralization data for this specific sub-clade yet, but overall we’ll likely be fine with substantial protection for vaccinated individuals, less so for convalescents. But still, somewhat TBD and we’ll know with more certainty soon.
And of course, it has only been designated a variant of concern - a lower level of variant than we would typically be worried about.
Regarding how transmissible it is - I think interpreting that sort of data is really really difficult especially when the number of outbreaks is small, and pre-existing immunity and vaccination coverage is a patchwork.
Anyway: It’s this sort of variant the boosters will hopefully work well for - will be interesting to see neutralization results for the MRNA booster for this variant.
But even 75% efficacy will probably be fine with high enough levels of vaccine coverage - 60-70% coverage will likely be good enough in the US but depends on convalescent protection levels. Just have to be on the downward side of that exponential for long enough, and then the actual efficacy doesn’t really matter at an individual level since you’ll likely never be exposed! Herd immunity FTW. We’ll see.
And of course, it has only been designated a variant of concern - a lower level of variant than we would typically be worried about.
Regarding how transmissible it is - I think interpreting that sort of data is really really difficult especially when the number of outbreaks is small, and pre-existing immunity and vaccination coverage is a patchwork.
Anyway: It’s this sort of variant the boosters will hopefully work well for - will be interesting to see neutralization results for the MRNA booster for this variant.
But even 75% efficacy will probably be fine with high enough levels of vaccine coverage - 60-70% coverage will likely be good enough in the US but depends on convalescent protection levels. Just have to be on the downward side of that exponential for long enough, and then the actual efficacy doesn’t really matter at an individual level since you’ll likely never be exposed! Herd immunity FTW. We’ll see.
uujjj2
Member
Malls here in Santa Clara County are packed. Wow, the shoppers are seriously out in force these days. Back in January the same malls were so lightly trafficked they were ghost towns. Restaurants are also packed. What is it Christmas in May or something?
Is it like this everywhere or just California? When we were in Orlando in March the malls were still pretty empty, but I wonder if it's changed since.
Is it like this everywhere or just California? When we were in Orlando in March the malls were still pretty empty, but I wonder if it's changed since.
Yeah, people are bored out of their minds. CA has high vaccination rate, so this is a good test of herd immunity.
Las Vegas is seeing lots of visitors recent weeks too.
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