Coronavirus

[dhanson865]

Problem is it will not really be over after this wave if we don’t get more vaccination. The winter will bring a different set of dynamics and other people still not infected will be exposed in new ways and we will have another wave - barring a strong vaccination push.

Do we really want another wave? It is quite constricting of people’s freedom to have another wave. I want more freedom.

More vaccination, whats' that? We stalled here under 49.99% for first shot or second shot, and 47.x% for 2nd shot complete. I'm not sure if we'll hit 2nd shot at 50% before Thanksgiving and I'm pretty darn sure we won't get past 52% before the end of the year.

And don't let that legend for the blue line fool you, we are no where near 100% vaccinated, the blue box should say "series initiated + Fully Vaccinated" but I guess they thought that it was too wordy and the implication was clear.

 

[dhanson865]

and it's even worse for the sate than it is for my county

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

How much of a difference do think it will make getting more vaccinated versus not?

A huge difference. At some point exponent becomes less than 1 and the virus disappears except for introductions.

Also vaccination makes a huge difference:

What is easy to see from this plot is that having everyone vaccinated would likely eliminate the disease (it is 8x more prevalent in unvaccinated groups, so that would mean roughly that complete vaccination can eliminate the virus if it has an R0 roughly less than 8).

It really will be “like a miracle” and the virus will just go away. It so far has shown no evidence of substantial immune escape. So far…

It might be flu

Flu is 20-30x less deadly than COVID in the age groups which determine mortality. So, we don’t need to worry about flu - similar death rate to fully-vaccinated COVID, until herd immunity eradicates COVID (if that ends up being the end game). Influenza remains more difficult to maintain immunity against than COVID.

 

[FlatSix911]

The snapshots below are from this morning, thus represent data ending July 31, 2021. The graphs have the same time scale and cover roughly 17 months from Mar 2020 to July 2021.

View attachment 690723

What I would have called the 4th spike in US cases doesn't stand out on the deaths chart and the increase in deaths corresponding to the 5th spike above has just barely started it's uptick. Can't even see it yet (nothing definitive).

Also interesting how the 2nd and 3rd wave on both graphs are similar in magnitude but the 1st wave was much worse in deaths than it was in cases and the 4th wave is the inverse of that (to a lesser extent).

View attachment 690724

Interesting to note the lack of correlation in phases 4 and 5... for the TLDR crowd, the vaccine has proven to be very effective in reducing deaths

 

[dhanson865]

Interesting to note the lack of correlation in phases 4 and 5... for the TLDR crowd, the vaccine has proven to be very effective in reducing deaths

still too early to say that for 5. We are at the start of an uptick, you can sure say that 4 was clearly muted.

In the first 2 waves the peak of deaths was about 9 days after the peak in new cases.

In wave 5 of new cases we haven't seen the peak yet so we have more than 2 weeks to wait to see where deaths go, most likely months not weeks (to wait for both new cases to peak and then deaths to peak) .

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

More vaccination, whats' that?

Something the federal government mandates, in order to be allowed on an airplane or a train and anything else in their control

It’s a push for freedom and self-determination and individual rights, led by the federal gov’t. It’s a war, to restore liberty for all.

I guess we will see what happens. As long as we dance around the issue, COVID will remain. Sometimes it’s best to forcefully use the established power of the government to govern in the interest of collective security. Because that means liberty and safety for all.

Temporarily, not exactly a Libertarian approach, but in the end I just want everyone to be able to do whatever they want.

 

[JRP3]

The fed not renewing the eviction moratorium is a good thing - again, because we have the vaccine now.

Vaccine won't stop the streets being flooded with the homeless which will include both vaccinated and unvaccinated. It's not as if getting vaccinated suddenly turns your financial situation around.

 

[deonb]

Initially, we did not have the vaccine and a lock down made sense. I really think that since the vaccine is available, we should do what the party of 'personal choice' wants, which is let it rip and get this thing behind us.

Does the E in your icon stand for the "Epsilon" variant you're trying to create by "letting it rip"?

 

[eevee-fan]

Vaccine won't stop the streets being flooded with the homeless which will include both vaccinated and unvaccinated. It's not as if getting vaccinated suddenly turns your financial situation around.

You're not understanding... Basing whether to extend the eviction moratorium (living rent free) to vaccination rate motivates some people to NOT get the vaccine. So you are saying homeless live rent free which is true with or without the eviction moratorium.

 

[JRP3]

Basing whether to extend the eviction moratorium (living rent free) to vaccination rate motivates some people to NOT get the vaccine.

Doubt it.

 

[eevee-fan]

28 year old male, they were vaccine hesitant.

 

[Jeff N]

An interesting take on the CDC’s new MMWR report which provided evidence for the new masking stance.

The Provincetown outbreak is actually good news (if you are vaccinated)

August 1, 2021 — by Ingu Yun, MD

inguyun.medium.com

 

[eevee-fan]

An interesting take on the CDC’s new MMWR report which provided evidence for the new masking stance.

The Provincetown outbreak is actually good news (if you are vaccinated)

August 1, 2021 — by Ingu Yun, MD

inguyun.medium.com

Agreed that messaging is getting off track. Vaccination is about reducing hospitalization and risk of death. We went into a lockdown to flatten the curve (to not overwhelm the hospitals) - not because of the mortality rate.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

An interesting take on the CDC’s new MMWR report which provided evidence for the new masking stance.

The Provincetown outbreak is actually good news (if you are vaccinated)

August 1, 2021 — by Ingu Yun, MD

inguyun.medium.com

Yeah, this is consistent with how I viewed the original MMWR. It always seemed like good news. If you aren't given denominators, the prior is that the vaccine works really well!

Without any additional data, you have to stick with the prior. We also know from prior data from scientists that the Delta (B.1.617.2) has substantially less immune escape than some other variants which seem adequately addressed by 2-dose mRNA vaccination so far. So there was no reason to be too concerned.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416928756602654726

Once there's data showing immune escape or failure of the vaccine, then there is reason to be concerned. We may get that at some point. But we need to see it before we get concerned.

It does seem that for the vulnerable, boosters will be coming. But the data driving that recommendation seems to be coming from other sources (Pfizer, issues with outbreaks in nursing homes, etc.) , not from the P-town outbreak.

Vaccination is about reducing hospitalization and risk of death.

It's also about reducing infection - which it does REALLY well. If everybody were vaccinated, Delta would not survive, even though it can infect vaccinated people (it just can't do it enough, based on currently available evidence).

 

[madodel]

Vaccination rates rise in Central Florida as COVID-19 infections strain health systems

Hopefully this holds up.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Tough times. He'll be fine, though! Good to see he is using his platform to message responsibly about the vaccine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1422272144059289602

 

[scottf200]

Ok, so I was a little surprised how low of percentage the Delta variant is so far. Wow, we have a ways to go and for it to make it through the clustering groups of unvaccinated.
Source: outbreak.info

 

[madodel]

Equinox and SoulCycle to require proof of vaccination starting in September

 

[Jeff N]

Ok, so I was a little surprised how low of percentage the Delta variant is so far.

Those numbers showing USA with Delta at 4% and Alpha at 32% are goofy. I haven’t looked closely enough to understand why.

CDC and Helix Labs both say Delta makes up around 80-90% of infections happening now in the USA.

The orange color in the CDC bar chart below represents the relative prevalence of the Delta variant.

The lower cluster of charts is taken from the latest update of a paper from Helix that was just uploaded on July 30. You can find it here:

SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta rapidly displaced variant Alpha in the United States and led to higher viral loads

This study reports on the displacement of Alpha (B.1.1.7) by Delta (B.1.617.2 and its substrains AY.1, AY.2, and AY.3) in the United States. By analyzing RT-qPCR testing results and viral sequencing results of samples collected across the United States, we show that the percentage of SARS-CoV-2...

www.medrxiv.org

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[scottf200]

Those numbers showing USA with Delta at 4% and Alpha at 32% are goofy. I haven’t looked closely enough to understand why.

CDC and Helix Labs both say Delta makes up around 80-90% of infections happening now in the USA.

Thanks. I looked for another reference but didn't look hard enough.

Perhaps the difference is the
a) CDC is %s as of right now (ie. they add up to ~100%) and
b) the outbreak . info ones are "Cumulative prevalence since detection" (so % of all since the beginning and why they don't add up to ~100%).
I think 'b)' is novel and 'a)' is more pertinent.