So you don't think that:
- Substantially more individuals from the South in the Pfizer group
- Substantially more vaccinated individuals previously hospitalized in prior year (close to 50%) than in the control group (36%)
- Generally observing a group of hospitalized individuals
- 58% of vaccinated individuals are over 65, while 35% of unvaccinated individuals are over 65
...would have any impact on actual efficacy, as applied to the general population (which is what matters)???
Note that I do think that in this Pfizer group studied, the efficacy against hospitalization is substantially lower than it is for Moderna group studied. I mean, that's literally what they found. But the groups are not demographically the same, so I suspect the actual gap in efficacy is smaller than they found, though likely still significant. And smaller still when generalized to the overall population (perhaps same ratio of breakthrough rates, but that means a smaller gap).
I just don't think that taking a group of people, half of who have been hospitalized in the past year for other reasons, 58-59% of whom are over 65, is generalizable to the population.
And I don't think calculating efficacy, with a population which is 58% over 65 in one case, and 35% in the unvaccinated control group, is a good way to calculate efficacy, as we normally think about it.
Yes, I think I would still question this data. I've had my booster, so I don't really feel motivated by what I WANT to be true. I was happy to take a dose which otherwise would have been wasted.
Note again that I do think Pfizer efficacy against hospitalization is declining, likely more than Moderna, as I've made very clear. And I think that older people and healthcare workers should absolutely be getting boosted ASAP and the data supports that. (And everyone should be allowed to boost as soon as possible - needs to be before November in my opinion.) Just to make sure you understand where I'm coming from.
But the 77% number against hospitalization is too much clickbait, sorry. Not representative. My efficacy against hospitalization prior to receiving my booster was very likely over 95%, for example. But taking that up to 98% (or whatever) was a no-brainer (that's twice as good).
If it were reported as "Pfizer efficacy against hospitalization falls to 77% in older, sickly populations, weighted towards generally economically depressed areas, when compared to healthier younger unvaccinated individuals" - I can agree with that.
There's tons of evidence that in immunocompromised and elderly populations, the larger dose and longer spacing of Moderna is doing good work. And it likely helps quite a bit at all eligible ages: