EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, UK restricts travel from SA, though ...Seeing a lot of buzz about the new variant: (B11529 OR "B.1.1529") in South Africa
Google search for your own DD
(B11529 OR "B.1.1529") variant - Google Search
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
MedCram R COVID Vaccines Vs. Delta Variant: State of Texas Study (Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson)
Comparison of death rates between Russia and the US, as well as comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths in Texas of all places.
Comparison of death rates between Russia and the US, as well as comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths in Texas of all places.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
New thread on Nu.
Doesn’t sound great but hopefully triple vax holds up ok. Probably next boosters will need to be targeted for Nu but I guess we’ll see how it plays out in reality (virulence, transmissibility, vaccine efficacy). Of course it is not going to be confined to South Africa. Restrictions can only buy some time. The human immune system and affinity maturation is a fearsome foe, so hopefully it is up to this challenge when appropriately primed and boosted.
Hopefully, if it turns out to be necessary FDA can find a way to expedite approval and manufacturing of a new variant vaccine. They seem far too plodding so far on this front. At some point we have to realize that rapid response and overreaction when it comes to vaccination is beneficial.
Doesn’t sound great but hopefully triple vax holds up ok. Probably next boosters will need to be targeted for Nu but I guess we’ll see how it plays out in reality (virulence, transmissibility, vaccine efficacy). Of course it is not going to be confined to South Africa. Restrictions can only buy some time. The human immune system and affinity maturation is a fearsome foe, so hopefully it is up to this challenge when appropriately primed and boosted.
Hopefully, if it turns out to be necessary FDA can find a way to expedite approval and manufacturing of a new variant vaccine. They seem far too plodding so far on this front. At some point we have to realize that rapid response and overreaction when it comes to vaccination is beneficial.
Last edited:
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Interesting development... I'm still glad I received my booster.
The five most vaccinated states in the United States—Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, Connecticut and Massachusetts—are all experiencing surges in new COVID-19 cases, as the Biden administration urges people over 50 to get their booster jabs.
The five most vaccinated states in the United States—Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, Connecticut and Massachusetts—are all experiencing surges in new COVID-19 cases, as the Biden administration urges people over 50 to get their booster jabs.
The question here is what is the percentage of infected unvacinated people compared to other states. Even if the vaccinate rate would be 80% there would still be 20% of the population that can get the virus and that is still a large number of sick people.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It's so annoying that news outlets can't just report this data with the links. Or do the research to figure it out... And also that some states don't seem to track it carefully. It's important! Really of course the CDC should be doing this...more than once a month...and by state.
Looks like something like 3-4x the rate in unvaccinated individuals in RI; not great but not awful. These are just case rates of course - hospitalization picture would look better, while deaths not quite as good as hospitalization (the most vulnerable are more likely to be vaccinated). Get boosted.
ArcGIS Hub
Discover, analyze and download data from ArcGIS Hub. Download in CSV, KML, Zip, GeoJSON, GeoTIFF or PNG. Find API links for GeoServices, WMS, and WFS. Analyze with charts and thematic maps. Take the next step and create StoryMaps and Web Maps.
ri-department-of-health-covid-19-breakthrough-cases-rihealth.hub.arcgis.com
For Massachusetts they force you to put together the data yourself AFAIK. How hard could it be for them to calculate rates for their community? Maybe I missed something. Couldn't find easy data on the other states in the list.
Looks like about 1/3 of the cases, 7000 out of 20000k in the past week were in vaccinated individuals, so twice as many in unvaccinated. Just really rough eyeballing this. So likely again maybe a similar 4x-5x the reduction in rate if you're vaccinated.
Fairly consistent with what we've seen, and I expect with the abysmal booster messaging we'll see the gap narrow in the coming months unless that messaging changes in a big way.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
I find that the John Hopkins University of Medicine site is a good data source for state, national and international reporting.
Home - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins
Daily Confirmed Case Trends (7-Day Moving Average) in the US
coronavirus.jhu.edu
Last edited:
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Well "35% of South Africans are fully vaccinated" so this low percentage could be party of the story there.
Reuters article: EXCLUSIVE South Africa delays COVID vaccine deliveries as inoculations slow
uujjj2
Member
It only takes about 10% of the adult population getting COVID at the same time to overrun the hospital system. Even the "most vaccinated states" aren't 90% vaccinated. Even in New England there's enough people walking around with no immunity to allow a pretty substantial COVID wave.
there is an article in the Washington Post about Michigan Emergency rooms and hospitals getting overwhelmed by Covid-19 and being full, and anticipating _even worse numbers over the next few weeks when it goes beyond “code red” the highest level and then going a worse level up.
what’s the next level up?
perhaps it is mirrored and realized in the comments section
a loss of patience and sympathy and coldness, society breaking apart, a forced, very unwelcome Sophie’s choice where _society is triaged.
………snip………
“mostly unvaccinated . . . “
“The way to fix this situation with the terminally stupid is to change the rules:
No jab - no Medicare/Medicaid.
No jab - no Social Security.
No jab - no job.
No jab - unemployment benefits.
No jab - no family assistance.
No jab - last in line for medical care.”
……..snip……
“Michigan gets what it gets.. They are all woefully ignorant.”
……..snip…..
“You paint with too broad of a brush. It is mostly the Trumpanistas who are not getting vaccinated or those who watch Faux Tv which continually peddles lies about the vaccines while the network mandates their employees to get vaccinated.”
…….snip…..
and
…….snip…..
“ A few months ago I heard an epidemiologist say something that really struck me:
You don't catch the virus. It finds you.
When you think about it like that, you begin to understand better the reality of the thing. It doesn't sleep. It doesn't get distracted. It's hunting. And if you don't get vaxxed, it will find you.
That's how to understand what's happening in the Michigan hospitals and elsewhere... everywhere. “
……..snip………
what’s the next level up?
perhaps it is mirrored and realized in the comments section
a loss of patience and sympathy and coldness, society breaking apart, a forced, very unwelcome Sophie’s choice where _society is triaged.
………snip………
“mostly unvaccinated . . . “
“The way to fix this situation with the terminally stupid is to change the rules:
No jab - no Medicare/Medicaid.
No jab - no Social Security.
No jab - no job.
No jab - unemployment benefits.
No jab - no family assistance.
No jab - last in line for medical care.”
……..snip……
“Michigan gets what it gets.. They are all woefully ignorant.”
……..snip…..
“You paint with too broad of a brush. It is mostly the Trumpanistas who are not getting vaccinated or those who watch Faux Tv which continually peddles lies about the vaccines while the network mandates their employees to get vaccinated.”
…….snip…..
and
…….snip…..
“ A few months ago I heard an epidemiologist say something that really struck me:
You don't catch the virus. It finds you.
When you think about it like that, you begin to understand better the reality of the thing. It doesn't sleep. It doesn't get distracted. It's hunting. And if you don't get vaxxed, it will find you.
That's how to understand what's happening in the Michigan hospitals and elsewhere... everywhere. “
……..snip………
The confirmed case in Israel is being reported as having been triple vaccinated.
It has never been claimed that the vaccine (including booster) offer full protection against infection with the virus, but they do drastically reduce the chances of developing serious and life threatening symptoms.
Correct. What we don’t quite know yet is whether this variant has evaded the various protections of vaccination etc …..
Seems we have a window of uncertainty while things get sorted.
Now, three confirmed cases in Israel.
All three were vaccinated.
(I understand the purpose of a vaccine. Just stating what is happening).
Last edited:
Well I would not go quite as far as you suggest. However, it would be reasonable to allow insurance companies to surcharge the unvaccinated and/or not cover the costs of treatment for the unvaccinated. I would add more restrictions - no flying, concerts, sporting events etc. for the unvaccinated.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
A tracking site that started yesterday (25th) gets updated several times per day.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Re: "you suggest" ---
it seemed he was quoting things from a comment section of the articles
Update: I'm fine with insurance companies charging more for the folks unvaccinated by choice (vs medical reasons) ... our health insurance jumped $100+ / month with your re-signup on ACA from 2021 to 2022 coverage. We know there are a handful of companies that have shared cost with their employees that are charging unvaccinated more. Imagine the cost of multiple weeks of unvaccinated in an ICU.
Last edited:
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
FYI, they already do. Most insurance companies in the US within the past 2 months stopped waiving co-pays and deductibles for COVID treatment if you are unvaccinated.
EDIT - my administrative assistant's father passed away from COVID last week. He refused to be vaccinated and "thought he had already had it". We will continue to see many more of these stories.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
There is a person I follow on FB and has a more readable (format) substack that summarizes very well.
"Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)" -- "Masters in Public Health and PhD in Epidemiology and Biostatistics."
About page: Your Local Epidemiologist | Katelyn Jetelina | Substack
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
>>>>>>>>
There is some good news though
First, we can detect B.1.1.529 on a PCR test. This typically isn’t the case. Usually a swab would have to go to a special lab for genome sequencing to know which variant caused the infection. However, it looks like B.1.1.529 has a special signal like Alpha on the PCR directly. For example, when the PCR is positive it lights up two channels instead of three channels, indicating that it’s B.1.1.529. This is amazing news because it means we can track this virus much easier and much quicker around the world.
Second, we caught this virus incredibly early. I can’t stress enough how amazing South Africa has been on communicating and taking hold of the situation. Because of their swift response, scientists around the world are already working together to decode this new threat. Early detection means that we have a surveillance system in place and it’s working.
Third, if we need another vaccine, we can do this incredibly quickly. Thanks to the new biotechnology, mRNA vaccines are really easy to alter. Once the minor change is made, only 2 dozen people need to enroll in a trial to make sure the updated vaccine works. Then it can be distributed to arms. Because the change is small, an updated vaccine doesn’t need Phase III trials and/or regularity approval. So, this whole process should take a max of 6 weeks. We haven’t heard from Moderna or Pfizer if they’ve started creating an updated vaccine, but I guarantee conversations have started behind closed doors.
Bottom Line: There’s still so much that we don’t know but what we do know is incredibly concerning. We are in a lull right now as we wait for scientific evidence to answer two questions as soon as possible:
<<<<<<<<<<
"Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)" -- "Masters in Public Health and PhD in Epidemiology and Biostatistics."
About page: Your Local Epidemiologist | Katelyn Jetelina | Substack
New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529
I hope everyone in the States had a fantastic Thanksgiving (even if you’re a Dallas Cowboys football fan). I hate to ruin the holiday, but… We have a new variant. I’ve not seen this much anxiety ridden chatter among scientists about a COVID19 variant before. Even among the calm, cool, and...
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
There is some good news though
First, we can detect B.1.1.529 on a PCR test. This typically isn’t the case. Usually a swab would have to go to a special lab for genome sequencing to know which variant caused the infection. However, it looks like B.1.1.529 has a special signal like Alpha on the PCR directly. For example, when the PCR is positive it lights up two channels instead of three channels, indicating that it’s B.1.1.529. This is amazing news because it means we can track this virus much easier and much quicker around the world.
Second, we caught this virus incredibly early. I can’t stress enough how amazing South Africa has been on communicating and taking hold of the situation. Because of their swift response, scientists around the world are already working together to decode this new threat. Early detection means that we have a surveillance system in place and it’s working.
Third, if we need another vaccine, we can do this incredibly quickly. Thanks to the new biotechnology, mRNA vaccines are really easy to alter. Once the minor change is made, only 2 dozen people need to enroll in a trial to make sure the updated vaccine works. Then it can be distributed to arms. Because the change is small, an updated vaccine doesn’t need Phase III trials and/or regularity approval. So, this whole process should take a max of 6 weeks. We haven’t heard from Moderna or Pfizer if they’ve started creating an updated vaccine, but I guarantee conversations have started behind closed doors.
Bottom Line: There’s still so much that we don’t know but what we do know is incredibly concerning. We are in a lull right now as we wait for scientific evidence to answer two questions as soon as possible:
- Does B.1.1.529 escape vaccines like we fear?
- Does B.1.1.529 continue to outcompete Delta like we’re seeing in South Africa?
<<<<<<<<<<
As of dec 8th, in Singapore, if you don’t have a vaccination it’s strictly pay as you go. No universal healthcare for unvaccinated.
Similar threads
