Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

I fully agree that this low level of vaccine efficacy was predictable... even before COVID19, coronavirus in general was always very expensive to economy and there were many attempts to develop vaccine that did not really pan out. (I used to get cold 4 times a year losing lots of billable time and would gladly pay $100/yr for corona and/or rhinovirus vaccine, even yearly one. )

What you describe however is not what was communicated about vaccine by public officials, especially in context of targeting populations which are unlikely to experience any of 3 benefits that you have listed to a significant degree - for example my kids.

Everyone was encouraged to vaccinate to stop transmission. I found it very disconcerting that it was told even though it was predictably misleading.
I think this misleading messaging is what really killed public trust .. I know it killed mine.

Public officials lie, exaggerate, make stuff up, etc. No, seriously, they lie, make stuff up, etc. What they have said about the vaccine has oscillated from one end of the spectrum to another, and usually has not been consistent with the scientists and what the manufacturers say when it comes to vaccine efficacy, morbidity/mortality, etc. Right or left, they have an agenda that they are pushing. The vaccines DO REDUCE transmission, but it is not to zero. Several factors lower, but again not zero.

As a physician, I've had these conversations for years with my patients (classically it has been about flu vaccines - "but doc, I got the flu last time I got the vaccine"). They are stigmas of a simple mind (i.e. N=1 thinking - "my case must represent everyone"), and make my job infinitely more difficult. The internet and especially social media has only amplified this 1000X. It's hard for the medically untrained to understand that even though they got the flu, that vaccine probably reduced the severity of their illness, and possibly (statistically in some) saved their life.


Specifically regarding COVID-19: IF HERD IMMUNITY HAD BEEN REACHED through vaccination, it was 100% true that it would have stopped transmission. We see this with every other vaccine in existence (classically measles, but applies to others as well). The problem is that herd immunity is determined through (primarily) two variables, and us hitting it was always going to be a stretch:
1) % vaccination rate of the population
2) R value of the virus (i.e. infectivity/transmissiveness)

Regarding variable 1 (% vaccination rate), we were only going to hit this if enough of the antivaxxing dumbasses could be brought onboard. That was always a stretch, and clearly never happened, even in high vaccination rate states and even among populations that should know better (i.e. nurses) there was marked vaccine "hesitancy".

Regarding variable 2, the Delta variant completely destroyed this, being 2.5X more infective (or more, depending upon the data) than the original strain. It meant that hitting herd immunity required a vaccination rate > 90%, which is just going to be impossible. As a virus becomes more infective (i.e. higher R), it requires a much higher % of the population to be vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity.



Now, in regards to your comment about cold viruses - that's too broad of an oversimplification. Even if we had a one-shot 100% effective vaccine for traditional coronaviruses, you would still get colds. Viruses that cause colds are: para-influenza, influenza (in some, more severe symptoms in others), metapneumovirus, RSV, rhinovirus, adenovirus (sometimes this gets bad and feels like the flu). Coronavirus is actually NOT the most common cause, it is rhinovirus, of which there are over 100 subtypes.



Anyway, I'm not monologing here to "disagree" with most or all of what you are saying. I'm on board and in line with the general sentiment, I'm just trying to make the point that "group think" has twisted a lot of the facts regarding the public message of COVID-19.

From a "medical history" standpoint, as I mentioned back in early 2020 in this thread, most pandemics last 2-3 (4 in some cases) years. Hopefully we are more than halfway through this, but there is still a great deal to play out here.



And one final comment about the COVID vaccines - the mRNA vaccines specifically - are nothing short of a miracle of modern medicine. I kid you not that the individuals that pioneered these are probably on the short list for Nobel prizes in the next 10 years (Nobels are notoriously slow to award). If we have similar technology employed to fight other diseases, we would certainly usher in a new "golden age" of medicine. Given how effective these vaccines are, compared to the traditional vaccines that have been developed, and considering how many mutations the original virus has accumulated, is just remarkable. I can only hope that this technology becomes widespread for use against other communicable diseases (HIV and hepatitis are on my short list here).

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Studies showed the vaccine did, in fact, greatly reduce infections. After a period of months the levels of antibodies circulating in the blood reduced to the point where it became less effective at preventing infections (but still highly effective at reducing severe illness due to memory B cells that make more antibodies after a new infection takes hold and from T cells).

The booster shots bring back the original high level of infection immunity, at least for a few more months and possibly a bit longer than after the 2nd dose.

There was discussion from very early on in the vaccinations about the uncertainty of how long the high level of protection from infection would last.

The fact that benefits of the vaccine were and continue to be overstated for political reasons does not contradict any of your statements

Both positions are true, and are not mutually exclusive. This conversation is perfect summary of why the discussion lasts 2 years with no conclusion

From the investor point of view it is the overselling of vaccination that matters the most, because we can expect calls for Gigafactories to be shutdown until we have everyone vaccinated for new variant.

P.S. Thank you for trying to explain how vaccines and immunity work, I find it entertaining that you think that you know this subject better because I did not agree with public messaging on the vaccine.

 

[bkp_duke]

I believe that is pretty much what was initially claimed, vaccine was supposed to be key to herd immunity, significantly stopping transmission, not just deaths. Transmission is much higher threshold to pass than not-dying (by 2 or 3 orders of magnitudes). This is not a speculation .. this claim of vaccine based immunity was widely made by both politicians and experts.

What you describe is however correct about what we now know about vaccine, but it is definitely not what was promised/expected. At this point it should really be called "periodic preventative COVID treatment for vulnerable individuals".

I think it important to measure how accurate previous predictions were, because it allows us to estimate predictive accuracy of currently offered expert opinions.

One more thing, you need to stop thinking of this as "one virus".

You should have the mindset that each new "variant" is a new virus, with new characteristics.

Example: Delta was 2-6X more transmissible than the original Wuhan strain. That's a MAJOR change when you talk with virologists. For most, that's something that they are "taught about", but never actually have seen first hand in their lifetimes.

 

[bkp_duke]

Vaccines should be for older people and people with underlying health conditions. The chances of someone dying from corona otherwise is <1%. Cdc/fda/politicians who are pushin the mandate and even that idiot fauci completely ignore natural immunity even though it is known to protect you longer than the vaccine. Vaccine vaccine vaccine. It's the end all be all cure blah blah blah. We've got money to make and people's livelihoods to ruin!

The people have lost all trust in the powers that are runnin this country. Promises aren't kept, our $ value is crap, inflation is at an all time high along with so many other things. Religious and medical exemptions aren't even being considered for the most part. Those poor individuals who have been forced to quit due to their choice of not wanting the jab are unfortunately SOL, especially since this mandate will be dead at some point but their jobs are done for. Military folks who are dishonorably discharged for not wanting the jab, their status will probably stay as that even after the mandate is dismissed. C19 isn't going anywhere. We just have to adapt and live with it and take whatever precautionary measures that make sense to the individual. There is no blanket treatment that works for everyone but all treatments should be considered as a possible treatment. So much wrong with this country.

Money to make, from vaccines? PLEASE, do your homework.

Pharma manufacturers don't make much on vaccines, but they make a TON on "treatments" like monocolonal antibody treatments, small molecule viral inhibitors (remdesevir, etc.). This conspiracy theory of yours doesn't pass the sniff test. Not if financial gain was the main goal.

I'm all about choice (see my previous posts in this thread), but on the financial facts, you are way way off.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

One more thing, you need to stop thinking of this as "one virus".

You should have the mindset that each new "variant" is a new virus, with new characteristics.

Example: Delta was 2-6X more transmissible than the original Wuhan strain. That's a MAJOR change when you talk with virologists. For most, that's something that they are "taught about", but never actually have seen first hand in their lifetimes.

Of course. Anybody who knows anything about viruses knew that when vaccine effort started. Thats the whole point

It was always true and we always knew it that coronaviruses mutate rapidly, it was brought up as doubt for vaccine as the primary solution from the very beginning and official answer was that COVID19 appear particularly stable. It was a lie, COVID19 is not that stable. That story late evolved .. spike proteins is stable and thats what the best vaccines target, best being RNA (... or were margins are best). Now it was also disproved as you pointed out.

That lie about COVID19 being particularly stable strain was so widely circulated that even my elderly parents told it to me when I said .. "that vaccine is not going to be much more effective than Flu vaccine".

We went through SARS and SwineFlu before, SARS is coronavirus too. Canada had a major SARS outbreak, it is only new topic for some people.

 

[bkp_duke]

Of course. Anybody who knows anything about viruses knew that when vaccine effort started. Thats the whole point

It was always true and we always knew it that coronaviruses mutate rapidly, it was brought up as doubt for vaccine from the beginning and official answer was COVID19 appear particularly stable. It was a lie, COVID19 is not that stable.

We went through SARS and SwineFlu before, thats coronaviruses too.

Actually, coronaviruses mutate slower than seasonal influenza. They have a proof-reading mechanism in their viral replication machinery that influenza lacks.

The reason we are seeing more variants is because this is a pandemic virus, and there is little to no native immunity, and because of that it is cranking through "viral generations" very very quickly.

Basically, even though the mutation rate (as measured by mutations per X generations is about 1/2 to 1/4 that of influenza) is lower, the number of people infected give this virus so many more chances to mutate. It's basically "brute forcing" it's way to new variants.

Know what would have stopped that? Getting every F-ing dumbass a shot as soon as we could have.

 

[TespaceX]

Know what would have stopped that? Getting every F-ing dumbass a shot as soon as we could have.

Even if we could have, the rest of the world is still in need of shots

 

[jerry33]

I believe that is pretty much what was initially claimed, vaccine was supposed to be key to herd immunity, significantly stopping transmission, not just deaths. Transmission is much higher threshold to pass than not-dying (by 2 or 3 orders of magnitudes). This is not a speculation .. this claim of vaccine based immunity was widely made by both politicians and experts.

What you describe is however correct about what we now know about vaccine, but it is definitely not what was promised/expected. At this point it should really be called "periodic preventative COVID treatment for vulnerable individuals".

I think it important to measure how accurate previous predictions were, because it allows us to estimate predictive accuracy of currently offered expert opinions.

My understanding has always been that to get herd immunity vaccination rates needed to be above 85%. Because we're nowhere near that, the virus has a much better chance of mutating and increasing it's resistance to the vaccine. And because it's world-wide, it really means that every country with less than 85% has a good chance of infecting travelers or neighbouring countries. South Africa only has a 35% rate according to what I have read.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The new variant B1.1.529 has been named "omicron", not "nu"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464303344789307394

 

[SO16]

Vaccines should be for older people and people with underlying health conditions. The chances of someone dying from corona otherwise is <1%. Cdc/fda/politicians who are pushin the mandate and even that idiot fauci completely ignore natural immunity even though it is known to protect you longer than the vaccine. Vaccine vaccine vaccine. It's the end all be all cure blah blah blah. We've got money to make and people's livelihoods to ruin!

The people have lost all trust in the powers that are runnin this country. Promises aren't kept, our $ value is crap, inflation is at an all time high along with so many other things. Religious and medical exemptions aren't even being considered for the most part. Those poor individuals who have been forced to quit due to their choice of not wanting the jab are unfortunately SOL, especially since this mandate will be dead at some point but their jobs are done for. Military folks who are dishonorably discharged for not wanting the jab, their status will probably stay as that even after the mandate is dismissed. C19 isn't going anywhere. We just have to adapt and live with it and take whatever precautionary measures that make sense to the individual. There is no blanket treatment that works for everyone but all treatments should be considered as a possible treatment. So much wrong with this country.

As of Tuesday my hospital is no longer accepting ambulances and having to cancel elective surgeries. So if someone is in a car accident or has a heart attack or stroke near that hospital, they will now need to travel farther to a different one which increases the risk of death or permanent damage. Our ED is full. All our beds are taken. When Covid patients leave the hospital, it is too often in a body bag. People think that covid only affects the weak and elderly. No. Everyone can be affected by this.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

My understanding has always been that to get herd immunity vaccination rates needed to be above 85%. Because we're nowhere near that, the virus has a much better chance of mutating and increasing it's resistance to the vaccine. And because it's world-wide, it really means that every country with less than 85% has a good chance of infecting travelers or neighbouring countries. South Africa only has a 35% rate according to what I have read.

Nope it is now 90%, and 85% was not an original threshold, it used to be around 70%. It keeps on moving away like a carrot in front of the donkey cart, which is precisely what you would expect with vaccine that is much less effective than promised (... or with fudged efficacy data).

Couple examples of moving goal post:

Before (Jan 2021)
For a vaccine with a claimed 95% efficacy, the required herd immunity level would be 63% to 76% (R divided by the vaccine efficacy).
(Herd Immunity to COVID-19 )

Now
Getting to herd immunity will require 90% of people to be vaccinated against COVID-19 [Getting to herd immunity will require 90% of people to be vaccinated against COVID-19, experts say]


Anyway now we have combination of decreasing immunity from previous "vaccine" and new variant that does not match the vaccine, so donkey cart game restarts from level 1.
The joke is on the donkey.

 

[SO16]

Nope it is now 90%, and 85% was not an original threshold, it used to be around 70%. It keeps on moving away like a carrot in front of the donkey cart, which is precisely what you would expect with vaccine that is much less effective than promised (... or with fudged efficacy data).

Couple examples of moving goal post:

Before (Jan 2021)
For a vaccine with a claimed 95% efficacy, the required herd immunity level would be 63% to 76% (R divided by the vaccine efficacy).
(Herd Immunity to COVID-19 )

Now
Getting to herd immunity will require 90% of people to be vaccinated against COVID-19 [Getting to herd immunity will require 90% of people to be vaccinated against COVID-19, experts say]


Anyway now we have combination of decreasing immunity from previous "vaccine" and new variant that does not match the vaccine, so donkey cart game restarts from level 1.
The joke is on the donkey.

As more information becomes available, things will change.

So what is your suggestion that we do?

 

[winfield100]

perhaps a “voluntary “ poll from commenters here
me first.
I got 2 Moderna in March/April and Pfizer booster in November.
(it was difficult to get jabs in Florida, USA, at first, until things got organized, otherwise sooner)
as an inverse ratio of credibility perhaps…..due to a recent comment by a new member, @Double0 who has a “cutesy ‘santa clarita’ diet”

 

[LightngMcQueen]

As more information becomes available, things will change.

So what is your suggestion that we do?

I was not suggesting anything other than critical look at track record of experts who made predictions in the past and taking that track record into account when evaluating their present and future recommendations.
Incidentally in discussion it was also brought up, not only by me, that poor efficacy of vaccine was quite predictable, which I think is worth pondering too.

I am still amazed how controversial it was. I even got downvoted for quoting articles with numbers above . I agree reality sucks, but lets not pretend it is not real.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

perhaps a “voluntary “ poll from commenters here
me first.
I got 2 Moderna in March/April and Pfizer booster in November.
(it was difficult to get jabs in Florida, USA, at first, until things got organized, otherwise sooner)
as an inverse ratio of credibility perhaps…..due to a recent comment by a new member, @Double0 who has a “cutesy ‘santa clarita’ diet”

1 P$izer here, and good suspicion of getting real virus in early 2020 (I would say 30% chance, no PCR to prove)

 

[bkp_duke]

Before (Jan 2021)
For a vaccine with a claimed 95% efficacy, the required herd immunity level would be 63% to 76% (R divided by the vaccine efficacy).
(Herd Immunity to COVID-19 )

Now
Getting to herd immunity will require 90% of people to be vaccinated against COVID-19 [Getting to herd immunity will require 90% of people to be vaccinated against COVID-19, experts say]

Snipped the irrelevant BS out of your response, all that is important is this above

Specifically, the "goal posts keep moving" because the R value changed. NOT the logic in how the message is determined, but the actual R VALUE.

The MESSAGE is changing because the MATH is changing. If the R value was not higher with Delta, then the % vaccinated to get to herd immunity would not change. Simple as that.

 

[Double-O]

Ok dude, turn off right-wing media. The time you've wasted rotting your brain on right wing media and social media convincing yourself you don't need the shot is far larger than the time it would take to just get the shot.

Kind of an ignorant thing to say but okay. I actually don't watch the news for this exact reason. The virus isn't deadly or bad as the media makes it seem for healthy individuals. No one should be FORCED to inject anything into their bodies. This whole BS about "even if you don't do it to save you, do it to save others" is just that...BS.

The president and his overreach with this mandate nonsense is unconstitutional and just plain wrong. The fact that what's supposed to be a health and medical issue which is obviously mainly a political issue is also wrong. Stay in your lane, run the country which is your primary role and leave the medicine side of things to the professionals. When doctors and nurses are not willing to get something injected in them and are willingly leaving their careers, something is wrong with that. Agree or disagree. It's one extreme or the other. The way this pandemic is being managed by the the clowns in office is only creating a bigger divide in this country.

 

[scottf200]

Genomic thread on Omicron (formerly Nu)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464353224417325066

4 of 16

This extremely long branch (>1 year) indicates an extended period of circulation in a geography with poor genomic surveillance (certainly not South Africa) or continual evolution in a chronically infected individual before spilling back into the population. 4/16

 

[shinytop]

Facts are facts. They are not political. Masks work. Distance works. Vaccines work. It is not our current resident of the WH that politicized this. It was/is politicians building up their campaign funds by demonizing anything said by a president not named Trump. You have the right to your opinion but facts remain facts.

 

[madodel]

My wife told me today that she thinks she is seeing more COVID patients in her office and the hospital now than she did a year ago. She said that definitely, vaccinated people have far decreased problems with it and the overwhelming majority are still unvaccinated. I just checked and our county is still at only 53.5% fully vaccinated. These people are in denial of reality.

She's also finding that the COVID rooms she goes into the patients aren't wearing masks. She doesn't see that in other non-COVID rooms. She has to almost always tell COVID patients to put on their mask.