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So those nAbs titers are probably going to be the best predictive value we have, and hopefully when available they’ll show a comparison of double vax vs. triple vax, etc.

Trevor is also looking forward to this data (the last tweet in a long thread adjusting his estimates of transmissibility and immune escape).


Seems to me that most likely it’s going to have decent immune escape with a little lower inherent transmissibility than Delta. Hopefully three doses will provide strong protection for at least a few months.
 
I thought this overlay comparison chart was very interesting now and going forward.
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John Burn-Murdoch (@)jburnmurdoch 2:05 PM · Dec 1, 2021
NEW: updated chart showing today’s numbers from Gauteng in South Africa:
• Now with test positivity, for those who have asked whether this is driven by increased testing
• And stating in the title that hospital admissions are a lagging indicator, as many have requested

tkUtJrG.jpg
 
About 120 employees of a Norwegian company tested negative for Covid before attending a holiday party. Several of them had recently returned from the Cape Town office in South Africa. After the party, 30 to 40 of them tested positive for Covid, apparently the Omicron variant.


Meanwhile, the San Francisco person with “mild” symptoms who tested positive for the Omicron variant after returning from a trip to Africa in late November had received their 2nd dose of Moderna 3-4 months ago.

This all seems potentially consistent with significant escape from prior immunity.
 
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About 120 employees of a Norwegian company tested negative for Covid before attending a holiday party. Several of them had recently returned from the Cape Town office in South Africa. After the party, 30 to 40 of them tested positive for Covid, apparently the Omicron variant.


Meanwhile, the San Francisco person with “mild” symptoms who tested positive for the Omicron variant after returning from a trip to Africa in late November had received their 2nd dose of Moderna 3-4 months ago.

This all seems potentially consistent with significant escape from prior immunity.
That’s pretty wild. So, everyone was vaccinated and tested negative just prior. But, still almost a third tested for the virus so far.

Omicron now available in California for immediate delivery.

May come included with your next Prime delivery.
 
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This all seems potentially consistent with significant escape from prior immunity.

Yes, a lot of pointers in that direction. However, you’d also have to wonder how well Delta would spread in such a circumstance (I’d expect quite a few cases there too, though probably not so many). No word on booster doses in this party. The biggest unanswered question is how the breadth and quantity of nAbs from a booster will respond to Omicron infection. If there were boosted attendees there, it would be nice to know how they fared.
 
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The NorCal case has been updated with some more info: 18-49 years old, no booster shot because patient is not yet 6 months since original vaccine course.
As we know, omicron will break through triple vax as well. The question of course is how often. I’m hoping it is above 85% effective against symptomatic infection for at least 4-5 months. This would be quite good in today’s context of minimal restrictions and mitigation efforts (which makes breakthrough easier due to higher viral loads), would result in very good protection for most, and a chance that omicron could not survive in more highly vaccinated populations (it’s possible that Delta would outcompete it in the vulnerable population - we’re not seeing this in South Africa for obvious reasons!).
 
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Questionable abstract making the rounds trying to connect mRNA vax to heart issues


My wife is an actual cardiologist and she has never mentioned seeing any patients with heart disease related to vaccination. She sees several patients every day with heart disease or related problems caused by COVID. Her comments on the known issue of myocarditis and pericarditis are that they are self limiting. She only sees adults (18+) and has never seen a case of that in the past year since the vaccines have been out. She has seen breakthrough cases of vaccinated patients who got COVID and either had comorbidity heart disease or developed cardiac issues.
 
NY Times misinformation campaign continues. I need to cancel my subscription. I can’t believe “experts” are still saying things like this! I am no expert, but I am confident this is false. And that’s not Dunning-Kruger at work!

View attachment 735200

Meanwhile:
View attachment 735201
And now….

 
The best case scenario is that omicron really does produce milder disease, at least among vaccinated/recovered people. That could be part of COVID-19's evolution from a pandemic disease to a mild endemic disease.

Worst case it is like delta with an even higher R0, and immunity from vaccines/recovery is ineffective. In that case we might as well call this COVID-21, an all-new pandemic we can start from scratch.
 
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That’s pretty wild. So, everyone was vaccinated and tested negative just prior. But, still almost a third tested for the virus so far.


May come included with your next Prime delivery.

It's also possible somebody had a false negative test before the party.

My wife is an actual cardiologist and she has never mentioned seeing any patients with heart disease related to vaccination. She sees several patients every day with heart disease or related problems caused by COVID. Her comments on the known issue of myocarditis and pericarditis are that they are self limiting. She only sees adults (18+) and has never seen a case of that in the past year since the vaccines have been out. She has seen breakthrough cases of vaccinated patients who got COVID and either had comorbidity heart disease or developed cardiac issues.

It's ironic that the conspiracy type who attribute various health problems to the vaccine are not true, but most of those health problems are known side effects of COVID.
 
And now….

I guess this is an easier “out” for these experts than admitting they were wrong about boosters all along?

I still don’t understand their rationale for no boosters against Delta, which will remain the dominant virus in the US for at least the next couple months, ripping through the vaccinated (albeit much more slowly than it goes through the unvaccinated).

At least this starts to get the booster messaging right. It’s still really weak though. A lot of people think it is optional because it is not “required” for fully vaccinated status.
 
It's ironic that the conspiracy type who attribute various health problems to the vaccine are not true, but most of those health problems are known side effects of COVID.

If you get vaccinated you will die. ...Eventually... And the anti-vaxxers will claim the vaccine was the cause. I have a friend who won't get vaccinated because he seriously believes that there might be a side-effect that shows up five years later that's worse than the virus.
 
If you get vaccinated you will die. ...Eventually... And the anti-vaxxers will claim the vaccine was the cause. I have a friend who won't get vaccinated because he seriously believes that there might be a side-effect that shows up five years later that's worse than the virus.
My wife has patients say that to her as the reason they are "waiting" to get vaccinated. Her response she says is "Are you waiting to die?"