scottf200
Well-Known Member
There is an interactive chart that lets you compare excess mortality over time in any pair of countries. Check out Russia and India as some examples.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The diabetes discussion here is very close to my heart, as that's my core training (Pedi Endo). I do want to caution everyone from drawing conclusions that "COVID causes diabetes in the under 18 age group". There will be a natural inclination for people to make that association, but the data doesn't exactly bear that out, and here is why:
Type 1 Diabetes is a slow smoldering auto-immune process. From all the data we have accumulated over the decades, we know it takes many months to a few years for most people to present as diabetic. We do know, however, that certain things accelerate this process, some of which are: poor diet excessively rich in carbohydrates, siblings with Type 1 diabetes, and most importantly acute illness. Basically, these individuals just have enough insulin-producing beta cells left in their pancreas to get by without going into a crisis (diabetic ketoacidosis). It takes very very little to tip those scales and then they present as new-onset Type 1 diabetics. I was practicing in the hospital during the H1N1 influenza pandemic and we noted a large up-tick in new diabetics during that pandemic and for up to a year afterwards.
Type 1 Diabetes is an auto-immune disease, and there is a long-standing theory of the "trigger" of that disease being a viral infection, which the body fights off but in the process of doing so creates antibodies that attack the beta cells of the pancreas. This theory has been well studied over the past 3 decades, but even with all the resources we have thrown into it, has not been proven, and coronaviruses have not historically been part of the group of viruses suspected to trigger that auto-immune reaction. Coxsackievirus B is the most classically associated virus with Type 1 diabetes (but again, it's complex and not as simple as "that virus causes Type 1 Diabetes"). We do know there is a strong genetic component to this disease as well.
I encourage anyone interested in this theory to read the following articles:
blogs.bcm.edu
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www.health.com
Until proven, I would urge extreme caution about saying COVID causes Type 1 diabetes. The patients and parents of these children often are emotionally overwhelmed dealing with the diagnosis, and until there is definitive proof I would not want to make this association for them, as they will cerebrate on it, continually. We are still early on in evaluating the association, if any, of COVID-19 and Type 1 Diabetes.
Type 1 Diabetes is a slow smoldering auto-immune process. From all the data we have accumulated over the decades, we know it takes many months to a few years for most people to present as diabetic. We do know, however, that certain things accelerate this process, some of which are: poor diet excessively rich in carbohydrates, siblings with Type 1 diabetes, and most importantly acute illness. Basically, these individuals just have enough insulin-producing beta cells left in their pancreas to get by without going into a crisis (diabetic ketoacidosis). It takes very very little to tip those scales and then they present as new-onset Type 1 diabetics. I was practicing in the hospital during the H1N1 influenza pandemic and we noted a large up-tick in new diabetics during that pandemic and for up to a year afterwards.
Type 1 Diabetes is an auto-immune disease, and there is a long-standing theory of the "trigger" of that disease being a viral infection, which the body fights off but in the process of doing so creates antibodies that attack the beta cells of the pancreas. This theory has been well studied over the past 3 decades, but even with all the resources we have thrown into it, has not been proven, and coronaviruses have not historically been part of the group of viruses suspected to trigger that auto-immune reaction. Coxsackievirus B is the most classically associated virus with Type 1 diabetes (but again, it's complex and not as simple as "that virus causes Type 1 Diabetes"). We do know there is a strong genetic component to this disease as well.
I encourage anyone interested in this theory to read the following articles:
Unexpected viral behavior linked to type 1 diabetes in high-risk children
Study links prolonged enterovirus infection and the development of autoimmunity to the insulin-producing cells that precedes type 1 diabetes.
blogs.bcm.edu
Type 1 Diabetes May Be Triggered By a Common Virus, Study Suggests
Researchers found that kids exposed to enteroviruses are more likely to develop the autoimmune disease.
Until proven, I would urge extreme caution about saying COVID causes Type 1 diabetes. The patients and parents of these children often are emotionally overwhelmed dealing with the diagnosis, and until there is definitive proof I would not want to make this association for them, as they will cerebrate on it, continually. We are still early on in evaluating the association, if any, of COVID-19 and Type 1 Diabetes.
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scottf200
Well-Known Member
That was a very nice post and followed everything I know about T1D. I figured that COVID19 was just an 'acute illness' with characteristics that triggered / accelerated the tipping point. Our 8 year old at the time had what we thought was a normal cold/flu that spiraled into a week+ hospital stay and T1D diagnosis. His older brother got it a couple years later. Just told us one morning that he was up during the night going to the bathroom (#1). We knew that was a symptom by that time and a test with his brother's tester showed he was higher than the meter could display ... thus 'high' was displayed.
Diabetes has been on the rise for a number of years (below quote) so there are many factors certainly. The impact of the on-going cost (all interpretations of that word) on families is tremendous too. Most know the cost of USA purchase insulin is outrageous and all 'competing' brands pricing rise in lockstep of each other. We saw it for 2 decades and is well documented/graphed. Anyway sorry for the tangent.
Aug 2021: via CDC Newsroom
I understand, but it's still disturbing since it's been identified in children. Thanks for the information. But since COVID or the immune response attacks other organs it shouldn't be surprising it can affect the pancreas as well. My wife questions why in the 2 years we've been dealing with it, no one saw this in adults. Though she said there are so many adults with DM2 that it may just have never stood out.The diabetes discussion here is very close to my heart, as that's my core training (Pedi Endo). I do want to caution everyone from drawing conclusions that "COVID causes diabetes in the under 18 age group". There will be a natural inclination for people to make that association, but the data doesn't exactly bear that out, and here is why:
Type 1 Diabetes is a slow smoldering auto-immune process. From all the data we have accumulated over the decades, we know it takes many months to a few years for most people to present as diabetic. We do know, however, that certain things accelerate this process, some of which are: poor diet excessively rich in carbohydrates, siblings with Type 1 diabetes, and most importantly acute illness. Basically, these individuals just have enough insulin-producing beta cells left in their pancreas to get by without going into a crisis (diabetic ketoacidosis). It takes very very little to tip those scales and then they present as new-onset Type 1 diabetics. I was practicing in the hospital during the H1N1 influenza pandemic and we noted a large up-tick in new diabetics during that pandemic and for up to a year afterwards.
Type 1 Diabetes is an auto-immune disease, and there is a long-standing theory of the "trigger" of that disease being a viral infection, which the body fights off but in the process of doing so creates antibodies that attack the beta cells of the pancreas. This theory has been well studied over the past 3 decades, but even with all the resources we have thrown into it, has not been proven, and coronaviruses have not historically been part of the group of viruses suspected to trigger that auto-immune reaction. Coxsackievirus B is the most classically associated virus with Type 1 diabetes (but again, it's complex and not as simple as "that virus causes Type 1 Diabetes"). We do know there is a strong genetic component to this disease as well.
I encourage anyone interested in this theory to read the following articles:
Unexpected viral behavior linked to type 1 diabetes in high-risk children
Study links prolonged enterovirus infection and the development of autoimmunity to the insulin-producing cells that precedes type 1 diabetes.Type 1 Diabetes May Be Triggered By a Common Virus, Study Suggests
Researchers found that kids exposed to enteroviruses are more likely to develop the autoimmune disease.
Until proven, I would urge extreme caution about saying COVID causes Type 1 diabetes. The patients and parents of these children often are emotionally overwhelmed dealing with the diagnosis, and until there is definitive proof I would not want to make this association for them, as they will cerebrate on it, continually. We are still early on in evaluating the association, if any, of COVID-19 and Type 1 Diabetes.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Tell your wife that is because adult onset Type 1 Diabetes is typically a far more mild disease, and it is not uncommon for those individuals to keep some residual beta cell function for years or even decades.
Does the Indian medical system know something the US doesn't?
In the US there is zero treatment for people until they go to the ER in distress. While I have not dealt with it directly, anecdotally from my circle of people who have gotten covid:
1. They have been told simply to isolate and come to the ER if you have serious breathing problems or chest pains. Zero treatment.
2. If they go to the ER they are at the mercy of the local monoclonal antibody supply where it may be rationed, in which the case the correct answer to the question "Do you smoke?" is YES! as otherwise they may not give you the MCA if it rationed where you are. They may also get steroids.
But short of going to the ER, or knowing a MD friend who might go out a limb for you, there is no prescription, no over-the-counter-meds, and no supplements (even totally safe, and who-knows-it-may-benefit, things like zinc) options available in the US. There is a big gap in early treatment for those who test positive in the US and utterly missing a potentially valuable early treatment window.
Agreed, it's inexcusable that COVID patients here in the US are sent home to isolate until they deteriorate to the point where they require hospitalization. The "I" drug is a very touchy subject, so I will refrain from commenting on that other than to say that India generated a lot of lessons learned as a result of the Delta wave from March through June 2021. The antibiotic was prescribed to inhibit opportunistic secondary infections (primarily bacterial pneumonia). I also forgot to mention that all those family members are taking aspirin as well. Latest update is that everyone including the unvaccinated, high risk person is stable. O2 saturation for that high risk individual did dip into the upper 80s over the last 24 hours, but they were given supplemental O2 at home and it recovered.
I don't know if it applies here, but in the early 80's I had heard that Thailand prescribed aspirin for AIDs patients and sent them home. Countries do what they have the resources for. Do you really want Ivermectin? As to the other things, other than the antibiotic you can get over the counter.
Early data, perhaps a bit “cherry-picked”, but still something that fits the reasonable narrative that Omicron is quickly transmitting to such an overwhelming number of people that the overall impact of hospitalization and even death is still very serious.
www.nytimes.com
Cases & Deaths:
Hospitalizations/ICU/Ventilated:
Early Data Hints at Omicron’s Potential Toll Across America (Published 2022)
In the cities that were among the first to experience rapid rises in Covid cases due to Omicron, serious outcomes including I.C.U. stays and deaths are following case curves upward.
Cases & Deaths:
Hospitalizations/ICU/Ventilated:
I've been watching this data on CDC's website for daily new cases. Stunning.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I've been watching this data on CDC's website for daily new cases. Stunning.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.covid.cdc.gov
View attachment 753968
And the CDC said that is an undercount. They believe people are testing positive at home and not reporting.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Although nationwide the death rate has been down to 900/day, it is up again to around 1500/day, which is higher than the average since beginning of Covid in the US, and it seems to be going up. Perhaps not just a little bit. That does pose a question about Omicron being "mild" in total.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep, no surprises, exactly what everyone expected in late November (with hospitalization picture filling out in early December). At least this stuff is predictable within certain limitations now!
It definitely seems like the CFR has dropped but exactly how much in the unvaccinated, we’ll only know after the damage is done and the dust settles! Clearly deaths are headed higher but I have no guesses for how high. But definitely not to 5-10k a day. I’m curious to see whether Delta will re-emerge after the dust settles. Hope not.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Plus people testing negative multiple times before finally testing positive, how many people get a false negative and just accept it because of mild symptoms? One example, girlfriend gets sick, has multiple negative quick tests plus a negative PCR but finally gets a positive PCR test:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I just want some evidence based information on early treatment. I don’t care if its ivermectin or zinc or pepcid or some new Rx. But is annoying that the treatment is zero until people end up in the hospital when for many of those people hospitalization could have been avoided if more work was done and more resources were used to identify better early treatment.
So much of the research is only on people that are hospitalized.
Where is our CDC version of this? https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/Update...mentProtocolforCOVID19adultsdated24052021.pdf
And yes I realize that anecdote above and the link in this post shows the standard of care in India — of course it would be more plaudible if only India were a country that produced any medical doctors. . . .
Here in the Seattle area...
"Just to be clear, within UW Medicine facilities, this is the largest number of COVID-19 patients we've had in the entire two years," Lynch said.
KING5.com: COVID-related hospitalizations rise amid surge in omicron cases in King County.
"Just to be clear, within UW Medicine facilities, this is the largest number of COVID-19 patients we've had in the entire two years," Lynch said.
KING5.com: COVID-related hospitalizations rise amid surge in omicron cases in King County.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
@JRP3 , I think the reference would be to Cefixime mentioned above.
Related summary info that certainly has been talked about several times in this thread:
"Cefixime is used to treat many different types of infections caused by bacteria."
And "The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is caused by a virus, NOT by bacteria."
And FDA FAQ: COVID-19 Frequently Asked Questions
"Q: Are antibiotics effective in preventing or treating COVID-19?
A: No. Antibiotics do not work against viruses; they only work on bacterial infections. Antibiotics do not prevent or treat COVID-19, because COVID-19 is caused by a virus, not bacteria. Some patients with COVID-19 may also develop a bacterial infection, such as pneumonia. In that case, a health care professional may treat the bacterial infection with an antibiotic."
From @bhzmark referenced document even mentions not prescribing Antibiotics --- "Where is our CDC version of this?"
vi. Antibiotics should not be prescribed routinely unless there is clinical suspicion of a
bacterial infection. Few patients with COVID-19 develop secondary bacterial infection.
Consider empiric antibiotic therapy as per local antibiogram.
Norbert
TSLA will win
The CFR will surely drop further below 1.4% in terms of known deaths per known cases, but the number of cases will be very high for an unknown amount of time. That's why I said "in total".
The absolutely highest rate so far was close to 3,600 per day, at the peak, so if we reach 2,000 per day, I wouldn't call that "mild" anymore, even if it takes a lot of cases to get there.
It now seems reasonable to me to expect that we will reach an overall total of 1 million COVID deaths in the US, at some point this year.
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