Coronavirus

[wdolson]

You say that like it's done producing ash/dust for the year. It's still active and it remains to be seen how much activity it will do going forward.

The types of volcanoes that have explosive eruptions like the Tonga volcano tend to output most of what they're going to do in a large explosion. There are often burps before and after, but in total ejected matter those are small compared to the big blast.

Hot spot volcanoes like Hawaii and Iceland can burble away with long, low intensity eruptions. Those volcanoes are actual holes in the Earth's crust that leak almost constantly. Interestingly hot spots don't move with respect to the core of the Earth with time, but do move with respect to the plates on the surface. The Hawaiian hotspot has been there over 100 million years. The Hawaiian islands extend in a chain of mountains under the surface of the ocean until they disappear under the Aleutians.

Yellowstone is a hot spot volcano that went underneath a large mountain range, which makes it one of the most dangerous volcanoes on the planet. If it were to erupt today it might end civilization on Earth. The hotspot eats away at the bottom of the granite in the Rockies until it fails and explodes violently. When the hotspot was in Southern Oregon it just leaked for a very long time. The volume of output was enough to change Earth's climate. That was about 14 million years ago.

I believe Tonga is on the boundary between the Pacific plate and the Australian plate. The Pacific Ocean is shrinking (and the Atlantic expanding) with the Pacific plate going under the Eurasian plate in the north and the Australian plate in the south with the small Philippine plate wedged in the middle. There are a lot of subduction zone volcanoes all along this line. The US has a short subduction zone from the northern most part of California on up into British Columbia. It's why the Cascade mountains are there.

The volcanoes in the South Pacific and South China Sea can be very violent. Tambora and Krakatoa were both on the subduction zone between the Eurasian plate and the Australian plate. Chances are we won't see another VEI-7 during our lifetimes. Those tend to be once in 500 year events, but VEI-6s happen about every 10 years or so. Though the Earth has its own timetable and we could see another VEI-7 anytime mother nature decides to do it.

Volcanoes can also be unpredictable. My sister and her partner are both Geologists. Her partner told me once every one of his classmates who went into Vulcanology were killed by a volcano. Odds are this volcano is done with the big show for now, but there is always a chance of a bigger encore.

 

[dhanson865]

Volcanoes can also be unpredictable. Odds are this volcano is done with the big show for now, but there is always a chance of a bigger encore.

and I said "It's still active and it remains to be seen how much activity it will do going forward."

So wall of text later and you are in violent agreement with me I guess.

 

[ohmman]

Everyone I know is burned out in the medical field. They have hit the limit of their empathy for those that are not vaccinated.

Reading this thread, I get the sense that all of the participants here are burned out in general and have lost empathy. It's fierce in here!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is simply an assumption, not actual fact. And Fauci should not be making that clear-cut a statement. The appropriate statement would be "To date we have not been able to associate any long-term adverse affects of any vaccine, however this is something this is very difficult to study because of the incredibly large number of variables involved." I'm sorry, but long-term effects are so multifactorial that they are EXTREMELY difficult to tease out. It's the most common theme in medicine I know. Fauci is playing the political game and doesn't want to scare people away from vaccines, that's appropriate.

Fauci's statement might also be considered wrong, by some people. There is a growing body of evidence that the Anthrax vaccine that was given to the military in the late 1990s and early 2000s is associated with gulf-war syndrome and exacerbates PTSD. Those are things that show up FAR later than the window you attribute. This is an on-going hotbed of research, and you will find opinions about it with data to support both sides of the argument published and easily obtained by a Google search, so I'm not going to re-hash that here.

Another example - look how long it took us to prove that vaccines were NOT associated with Autism. That was a 15 year research pathway. Why? Because you MUST conduct longitudinal trials to tease something like this out. There is no possible other study that is appropriate, and you MUST collect a ton of data to tease out the statistics properly. RCTs are not valid to answer that kind of question.

CLASSIC example from my own research - we've been working on things for 50+ years and we STILL don't know what triggers Type 1 diabetes long-term. That is another incredibly multifactorial problem.

I'm sorry, but you are making a conclusion based upon your own personal biases and not based upon any reasonable scientific knowledge. I understand that's probably because you have an engineering background and are used to working with systems that are far less complex that biological systems, but your conclusions are unproven. And in the scientific community, unproven == WRONG until proven otherwise. It's the classical conundrum of proving that the null hypothesis is null.

Fair enough.

Notably Fauci is not being as black and white as I am.

I guess all we can say is to date, there has not been documented any long-term effect of a vaccine that was not evident in the first 60 days after vaccination. (Basically your rephrasing.)

Notably, previously I have not ruled it out (“first time for everything,” and I made it clear this was a claim based on history, not based on some sort of physical law).

I certainly understand it is not a provable statement. But knowing mechanisms is important for determining likelihood.

Nevertheless, we can be quite confident there is nothing to worry about long term with COVID vaccines, based on vaccine history.

I’d be a little surprised if Gulf War Syndrome or Type I diabetes ended up being tied to vaccination (unless soldiers with the anthrax vaccine started showing signs of GWS within 60 days of vaccination - then it would not be surprising at all). In any case, those connections have not been made at this time.

 

[bkp_duke]

I guess all we can say is to date, there has not been documented any long-term effect of a vaccine that was not evident in the first 60 days after vaccination.

Did more digging, care to retract that statement? The WHO does not agree with you.
https://www.who.int/bulletin/archives/78(2)205.pdf (See Table 4)

I will happily admit that most things on this list are rare, but you made a blanket statement that just doesn't fit. Also, these are notoriously difficult to trace back to a cause, years or even decades later. So that these were conclusive back to these vaccines is really impressive scientific work to make that association.

I will also admit that these are vaccines made with much older and less "clean" technology than mRNA vaccines, from a molecular biology standpoint. But that should not be taken as we expect mRNA vaccines to have no long term consequences. I'm happy with LESS, but my expectations will not be NONE.

 

[wdolson]

and I said "It's still active and it remains to be seen how much activity it will do going forward."

So wall of text later and you are in violent agreement with me I guess.

I left the possibility you may turn out to be right about this, but I doubt there will be another large explosion from this volcano in the next few years. The pressure the volcano had has mostly been relieved. At least that's the way it plays out with this type of volcanoes more than 99% of the time.

 

[golfcart]

I've had people argue "My son's (not sure of exact age) got COVID 3 times - not only does he have immunity now but the risk of myocarditis is worse than COVID!"

My response is that myocarditis risk is less even in the highest risk groups (teenage boys) from vaccines than COVID - but they remain unconvinced, none-the-less.

Are you sure you’re telling them the truth?

Based on this research males under 40 are at much higher risk on myocarditis after a second dose of an mRNA vaccine than they are from a COVID infection.

Myocarditis study

Maybe the parents are on to something?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Did more digging, care to retract that statement? The WHO does not agree with you.
https://www.who.int/bulletin/archives/78(2)205.pdf (See Table 4)


I will happily admit that most things on this list are rare, but you made a blanket statement that just doesn't fit. Also, these are notoriously difficult to trace back to a cause, years or even decades later. So that these were conclusive back to these vaccines is really impressive scientific work to make that association.

I will also admit that these are vaccines made with much older and less "clean" technology than mRNA vaccines, from a molecular biology standpoint. But that should not be taken as we expect mRNA vaccines to have no long term consequences. I'm happy with LESS, but my expectations will not be NONE.

Interesting information. Thanks for the link. Definitely good to chase down these situations where poorly designed vaccines or incorrect administration have caused problems. TL;DR here is that I disagree with the WHO that these are long-term effects that are not obvious in some individuals in the short term in 3/4 of their stated cases, or they are ADE or vaccine-enhanced disease related (which I've clearly specifically excluded).

#1 "Studies in monkeys have shown that atypical measles is due to failure of the inactivated vaccine to induce a mature Ab or T cell response with production of low avidity Ab that does not effectively neutralize WT virus. After WT MeV infection, large amounts of low avidity Abs are produced that bind, but do not neutralize, MeV, leading to immune complex formation, vasculitis, and pneumonitis". This falls under the category of antibody-dependent enhancement (or vaccine enhancement) for me, which I've specifically excluded as something that qualifies as a long-term effect at the time of my statement. It also does not qualify as a long-term effect which is not evident in the short-term. "Experience with the inactivated MeV vaccine emphasized the potential for vaccine-induced enhancement of disease and was withdrawn." In large populations this would be evident right away (even if not immediately identified as related to the vaccine), as individuals were exposed, so a short-term-evident issue, as Fauci said (it would take longer with measles since the disease was not as widespread as SARS2, even at that time). Measles Vaccine

#2 This sounds like it was hard to attribute to the vaccine. It's not clear, but looks like the precautionary principle applies and high-titer vaccines are apparently no longer used. This one was the hardest one to understand what was going on, or whether there was even a connection. If there is more info on it, it would be interesting to figure it out. High-titer measles vaccination before 9 months of age and increased female mortality: do we have an explanation? - PubMed. Differential mortality by measles vaccine titer and sex - PubMed

#3 We've discussed this one already. ADE is a short-term effect (it will occur in a very short time if exposed to the virus in a very large vaccinated population, even if in some individuals it may take years). Vaccines with ADE have short-term obvious outcomes and we should avoid ADE (which is why I explicitly excluded it from consideration with my original statement, multiple times in this thread, since while they are evident in the short-term at a population level, for some individuals it could be very delayed).

#4 The use of live attenuated or even inactivated vaccines in immunocompromised individuals is contraindicated. This appears to be an immune dysfunction issue and involves live vaccines (it’s the vaccine itself causing problems with the compromised host!).

Fact Sheets | Infection Control & Prevention | Fact Sheet - BCG Vaccine | TB | CDC

A fact sheet on bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), a vaccine for tuberculosis disease. Provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

www.cdc.gov

"The BCG vaccination itself is believed to be merely safe for a competent immune system. However, a potentially lethal infection could be expected in immunocompromised hosts. In fact immunocompromised patients are vulnerable not only to mycobacterial diseases, but also to adverse complications of BCG vaccine."

This also is an effect that is evident in the short-term in large populations!: "Immunization over the right deltoid muscle with Moreau BCG vaccine (Fundao Ataufo de Paiva, Rio de Janeiro) at 10 days of age had resulted in a nonhealing ulcer." https://watermark.silverchair.com/2...YL_ygxfb_FjfuR3Hwc75D41GFRRHNvT_ott2Ewr00vkjA

In many individuals this occurred very quickly (even though in some individuals it may have taken years). So it's a short-term effect showing up in the first two months after vaccination in some cases. "the interval between administration of the vaccine and onset of the adverse reactions was within 4 month for three cases, between 4 and 12 months for nine cases (60%), between 12 months and 72 months in three cases." (We're talking about a very large population here - the only way to assess vaccine safety is to look at a lot of outcomes and look for warnings.)

Another paper.

I'm happy with LESS, but my expectations will not be NONE.

I most definitely expect none at this point (which is why I would have waited two months to get the vaccine if I were immediately eligible and not at high risk). What specific issues would you expect with this vaccine? I just don't see anything in the historical record that would suggest we should expect anything at this point (obviously excluding all individuals with issues that arose within 2 months of vaccination).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Are you sure you’re telling them the truth?

Based on this research males under 40 are at much higher risk on myocarditis after a second dose of an mRNA vaccine than they are from a COVID infection.

Myocarditis study

Maybe the parents are on to something?

Confidence intervals seems to overlap for everything except for dose two of Moderna (and for that the confidence intervals seem pretty wide). Obviously there's the separate extremely significant and now well-understood issue of the severity of the myocarditis (vaccine-induced is nearly invariably mild), as well as the hospitalization rate from COVID in young people vs. that from the vaccine.

 

[golfcart]

Confidence intervals seems to overlap for everything except for dose two of Moderna (and for that the confidence intervals seem pretty wide). Obviously there's the separate extremely significant and now well-understood issue of the severity of the myocarditis (vaccine-induced is nearly invariably mild), as well as the hospitalization rate from COVID in young people vs. that from the vaccine.

That’s all well and good but I responded to a very specific claim with evidence that the claim was likely false. You agreed that the claim was clearly false (based on the study I posted) for the Moderna second dose and said that the claim may be false for other vaccines as well but probably falls within the uncertainty interval. Sure maybe the benefits outweigh the risks still for young men but I’m not gonna beat up a parent for having doubts especially if their son has already had it and recovered.

This issue is close to my heart (pun intended) as I spent the day after my Moderna shot in the ER with chest tightness, shortness of breath, and heart palpitations. EKG showed ventricular bigeminy (type of arrhythmia). Persisted regularly (20%+ of the day) for over 2 weeks at varying intervals and I still have occasional episodes 9 months later. Never had a heart issue in my life prior to vaccination. I’m 6’ 1” and 180lb, exercise regularly, under 10% body fat, and have no comorbidities.

I’m boosted but you better believe I thought long and hard about it after that experience. Scared the *sugar* out of me. If I had a 16 year old son I’d be conflicted for sure.

 

[traxila]

That’s all well and good but I responded to a very specific claim with evidence that the claim was likely false. You agreed that the claim was clearly false (based on the study I posted) for the Moderna second dose and said that the claim may be false for other vaccines as well but probably falls within the uncertainty interval. Sure maybe the benefits outweigh the risks still for young men but I’m not gonna beat up a parent for having doubts especially if their son has already had it and recovered.

This issue is close to my heart (pun intended) as I spent the day after my Moderna shot in the ER with chest tightness, shortness of breath, and heart palpitations. EKG showed ventricular bigeminy (type of arrhythmia). Persisted regularly (20%+ of the day) for over 2 weeks at varying intervals and I still have occasional episodes 9 months later. Never had a heart issue in my life prior to vaccination. I’m 6’ 1” and 180lb, exercise regularly, under 10% body fat, and have no comorbidities.

I’m boosted but you better believe I thought long and hard about it after that experience. Scared the *sugar* out of me. If I had a 16 year old son I’d be conflicted for sure.

Wow. Glad to hear you are better. Hope this is the end of it for you.

I confess to dragging my feet on my two male adolescent offspring. My daughter is fully vaccinated. She wanted it.

My sons were mostly indifferent. So compromise for me was to dose them with the Pfizer once. Blew off the second round for now. Have seen research that shows incidence of myocarditis to drop with longer time periods between first and second dose. Will revisit the second dose at some point, but I am happy that they have something on board and it was incident free.

My SO was very hesitant over the whole deal for our sons. Had to overcome issues there as well.

 

[bkp_duke]

Wow. Glad to hear you are better. Hope this is the end of it for you.

I confess to dragging my feet on my two male adolescent offspring. My daughter is fully vaccinated. She wanted it.

My sons were mostly indifferent. So compromise for me was to dose them with the Pfizer once. Blew off the second round for now. Have seen research that shows incidence of myocarditis to drop with longer time periods between first and second dose. Will revisit the second dose at some point, but I am happy that they have something on board and it was incident free.

My SO was very hesitant over the whole deal for our sons. Had to overcome issues there as well.

I don't have boys, but with Omicron (less deadly), a single-dose of mRNA vaccine would probably be the way I would go as well. The side-effects are showing up in young adult boys/men after that 2nd shot, and it's not an insignificant number. As someone pointed out, they all recover, but this certainly reduces the risk/benefit ratio.

 

[golfcart]

Wow. Glad to hear you are better. Hope this is the end of it for you.

I confess to dragging my feet on my two male adolescent offspring. My daughter is fully vaccinated. She wanted it.

My sons were mostly indifferent. So compromise for me was to dose them with the Pfizer once. Blew off the second round for now. Have seen research that shows incidence of myocarditis to drop with longer time periods between first and second dose. Will revisit the second dose at some point, but I am happy that they have something on board and it was incident free.

My SO was very hesitant over the whole deal for our sons. Had to overcome issues there as well.

Thanks, I hope it is over for me as well. Having your heart do strange things pretty unnerving.

Your one shot compromise seems pretty reasonable to me especially if your SO is not fully on board. I’ve heard of some countries where that was the official policy for teenagers. My 16yo nephew did that and then caught COVID last week… he had a very mild case (3 days of cold like symptoms) and was back to normal quickly.

 

[bkp_duke]

I most definitely expect none at this point (which is why I would have waited two months to get the vaccine if I were immediately eligible and not at high risk). What specific issues would you expect with this vaccine? I just don't see anything in the historical record that would suggest we should expect anything at this point (obviously excluding all individuals with issues that arose within 2 months of vaccination).

Snipped out the BS. When you have an MD, I'll take your opinion with some weight vs. the WHO. Until then, you are simply wrong, and have been proven so by a nice review bulletin from the WHO.

Regarding the above - the myocarditis is a SIGNIFICANT problem. Did you know (since you are a know-it-all) that the MAIN REASON we treat Scarlet Fever is not because of the immediate fever and rash? While those are unpleasant, they are typically not life-threatening. It's because the inflammation that that happens can result in Rheumatic Fever, which causes inflammation in the heart and puts individuals at increased risk for future heart problems, as adults? Scarlet fever is a kid's disease, with adult complications in a small but significant portion of the kids that get it. This is why we treat it, to reduce the inflammation rate, and thereby the number of people that get Rheumatic Fever.

The heart doesn't like inflammation. Myocarditis is not something that is "mild", it's significant, and can have long-lasting complications as an adult (increased risk of cardiovascular disease, arterial wall hardening, valvular insufficiency, valvular leaf adherence, etc. etc.).

 

[byeLT4]

Waiting my 15 minutes after getting boosted currently... Man, kinda hurt this time, I'm guessing it was a Monday morning shot lol

Cases in my county have been rising for the last 2 weeks, guess Omicron finally made it to my neck of the woods.

 

[JRP3]

Not sure if valid but supposedly this compound was used to treat flu in the past.

Pakistan says trial of Chinese traditional medicine for COVID-19 successful

Pakistani health authorities on Monday announced the completion of a successful clinical trial of Chinese traditional herbal medicine for treating COVID-19, as the South Asian nation enters a fifth wave of the pandemic driven by the Omicron variant.

www.reuters.com

 

[TespaceX]

That’s all well and good but I responded to a very specific claim with evidence that the claim was likely false. You agreed that the claim was clearly false (based on the study I posted) for the Moderna second dose and said that the claim may be false for other vaccines as well but probably falls within the uncertainty interval. Sure maybe the benefits outweigh the risks still for young men but I’m not gonna beat up a parent for having doubts especially if their son has already had it and recovered.

This issue is close to my heart (pun intended) as I spent the day after my Moderna shot in the ER with chest tightness, shortness of breath, and heart palpitations. EKG showed ventricular bigeminy (type of arrhythmia). Persisted regularly (20%+ of the day) for over 2 weeks at varying intervals and I still have occasional episodes 9 months later. Never had a heart issue in my life prior to vaccination. I’m 6’ 1” and 180lb, exercise regularly, under 10% body fat, and have no comorbidities.

I’m boosted but you better believe I thought long and hard about it after that experience. Scared the *sugar* out of me. If I had a 16 year old son I’d be conflicted for sure.

Interesting.
One of my brothers who’s in his early-30’s, healthy and no medical history, also had some chest tightness and heart palpitations for some time after second dose of Pfizer. Has been monitoring it, but he seems okay now. He’s been hesitant to get booster because of the experience as well like you. But, he’ll be getting a booster soon next week because he won’t be able to continue working at the hospital without getting it. His hospital is requiring all doctors to get it, and they won’t exempt him with his experience.

 

[msm859]

I don't have boys, but with Omicron (less deadly), a single-dose of mRNA vaccine would probably be the way I would go as well. The side-effects are showing up in young adult boys/men after that 2nd shot, and it's not an insignificant number. As someone pointed out, they all recover, but this certainly reduces the risk/benefit ratio.

So what is your recommendation for a 6 year old boy and 9 year old girl?

 

[bkp_duke]

So what is your recommendation for a 6 year old boy and 9 year old girl?

It's the teenage boys that are having issues.

9 yo girl - get 2 doses, Pfizer (it's mRNA dose is lower than the adult dose)
6 yo boy - probably 2 doses Pfizer as well. The side effect profile in boys this age is really low, it's the 12 and older boys that are showing the rare myocarditis side effect (and it does appear to be dose-dependent - so the pediatric 12 and younger dose is better than the adult dose).

EDIT - as always, consult with your pediatrician. He/she is on the front lines of this.

 

[golfcart]

Interesting.
One of my brothers who’s in his early-30’s, healthy and no medical history, also had some chest tightness and heart palpitations for some time after second dose of Pfizer. Has been monitoring it, but he seems okay now. He’s been hesitant to get booster because of the experience as well like you. But, he’ll be getting a booster soon next week because he won’t be able to continue working at the hospital without getting it. His hospital is requiring all doctors to get it, and they won’t exempt him with his experience.

Thankfully my booster shot just made me feel crappy for about 36 hours. No heart issues with that dose.

Unfortunately, what you’re describing is the situation we’re in with the mandates right now. I do work on federal contracts and we had some seriously contentious meetings before Christmas where a few of the holdouts (full time telecommuters) were put on notice that they’d be fired if they didn’t get their shots… regardless of previous infection or adverse reactions to the first dose. CEO just told them it’s not our call this came straight from the White House.

The healthcare thing is really interesting, my sister works at a hospital and they fired a bunch of staff over vaccines and now have shortages during the omicron surge. A lot of the remaining vaccinated staff are out sick because the vaccine doesn’t really prevent omicron infection… so even though they are having mild cases they can’t come to work fora certain period due to a positive test.

I get both sides of it but it’s a mess.