Coronavirus

[SO16]

So, the unvaccinated only are putting themselves at risk.

if only this was true. If it was, I’d be totally fine with people not getting vaccinated.

I work at a hospital and the unvaccinated VASTLY outnumbered the vaccinated taking up beds. Like by over 70%. And for ICU/ventilator needs, over 95%.

We have had to turn away ambulances several times. Another hospital turned away over 700 patients within a couple month timeframe due to being full. This means people with heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, kidney stone surgery, you name it. This affects absolutely EVERYONE.

Now maybe, just maybe, after this omicron surge, we will be done with Covid overflowing the healthcare system. We may actually luck out here. But if that turns out not to be the case and the healthcare system gets overrun again after Omicron, the vaccines are absolutely essential in helping this situation. Boosters help even more. Yes, even you or a loved one can easily be affected by not having access to needed healthcare.

 

[shinytop]

I see that, but when the discussion is about the trend then the 7 day rolling average gives a truer picture. Florida may have the 6 most total cases per capita as you say but it is 41st in the 7 day rolling average figure and that gives a better idea of the current trend. See, it is possible to understand two different numbers.

As to what you always say the part of your chart visible in your post above clearly shows the 7 day rolling average of Florida well below the other states that brief view. Thank you for your time.

 

[JRP3]

I see that, but when the discussion is about the trend then the 7 day rolling average gives a truer picture. Florida may have the 6 most total cases per capita as you say but it is 41st in the 7 day rolling average figure and that gives a better idea of the current trend. See, it is possible to understand two different numbers.

As to what you always say the part of your chart visible in your post above clearly shows the 7 day rolling average of Florida well below the other states that brief view. Thank you for your time.

The discussion was about the supposed effects of Flordia's policies over the span of covid not a narrowly defined segment of time. The 7 day rolling average is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

[scottf200]

Those are good odds.

https://twitter.com/ScientistSwanda

_ yes, not all states record this type of data. but, the ones that do record, show that the *percentage* of those having a breakthrough case with any of the US approved vaccines is remarkably low vaccinated 2-4%
_ full vaccinated breakthrough means completed vaccination series 14+ days prior to diagnosis. it includes anyone with a booster if they had it 14+ days prior. it excludes anyone who did not complete their series per FDA, or who had completed but was infected within the 14 days.
_ while, the chance of someone not protected at all (from the vaccines) climbs unvaccinated 17.4%

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Those are good odds.

I don’t like presentations like this because they make it look like the primary course of vaccination is really good. But it’s not good enough with Delta and Omicron around. It’s better to say that primary vaccination reduces risk of infection by 6x or so (which is what this data also suggests, roughly, using the 17% number). That’s good, but it’s not good enough, because the risk of severe disease is still far too high (we want to see at least a 20-30x reduction in that, in non at-risk groups).

We desperately need people to get their booster (and also get vaccinated of course, but a separate problem which is more difficult).

 

[scottf200]

I don’t like presentations like this because they make it look like the primary course of vaccination is really good. But it’s not good enough with Delta and Omicron around. It’s better to say that primary vaccination reduces risk of infection by 6x or so (which is what this data also suggests, roughly, using the 17% number). That’s good, but it’s not good enough, because the risk of severe disease is still far too high (we want to see at least a 20-30x reduction in that, in non at-risk groups).

I wonder what that average Jill/Joe find easier to interpret and relate to? 6 times better or 3% chance of being a breakthrough case.
Rhetorical but the masses (Jill/Joe) should be the target PR --- IMO

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I wonder what that average Jill/Joe find easier to interpret and relate to? 6 times better or 3% chance of being a breakthrough case.
Rhetorical but the masses (Jill/Joe) should be the target PR --- IMO

True. Depends on whom you are trying to reach. But I think right now we have a much larger group that is vaccinated, and the unvaccinated are recalcitrant, for the most part. So I think making the double-vaccinated overconfident is costing lives, and these are lives of people who are amenable to vaccination. So that seems like a more important issue to address. (Of course, it is more useful to vaccinate people who are not yet vaccinated in a general sense...but here we are.)

In the end, I guess I just want presentations to accurately capture the risk reduction even if that picture is not as rosy.

 

[CatB]

Lots of people seem to be impressed because the state is booming during the pandemic.

Of course, FL economy is booming because tourism, no state income tax. Medicare funds so much healthcare for retirees, and now unemployment checks are going to people who prefer to be unvaxed, unemployed and living off the largesse of the rest of us taxpayers... (kidding, not kidding)

 

[FloridaSun]

Except your claim is that the higher number of unexplained deaths are not covid. If as you say hospitals "benefit" from covid deaths then that would incentivize them to claim HIGHER numbers of covid deaths, but that's the opposite of explaining the high number of NON covid reported deaths than expected. Your logic doesn't follow.

What I'm saying that the deaths are caused by what is on the death certificate unless proven otherwise. Burden of proof is at the ones claiming that something fishy happened. EVERY death has a cause of death listed. If someone listed a death knowingly as something that is not true, they are committing a crime and the burden of proof is at the accuser, not the accused. Innocent until proven guilty.

It's very common to list multiple reasons for death on a death certificate. My father had a laundry list of organ failures (he was 100). The doctor couldn't tell which failed first.

I think it was posted here something like 12 to 18 months ago that some states were not counting a death as COVID unless the death certificate listed COVID as the first cause. Someone may have had cancer, got COVID and it pushed them over the edge. Others were facing one or more organ failure and COVID pushed them over the edge. Some people have died anyway even if they didn't get COVID, but others may have lived for at least a few years, or a cancer patient may have recovered fully and went on to live a full life, but COVID cut their life short.

Right now we are having deaths that are indirectly attributable to COVID. With some many people in the hospital with COVID, people who have strokes, heart attacks, traffic accidents, etc. are not getting the care they need and some are dying as a result. Many of those people are people who would have survived, but are dead because of the pandemic.

There are clear guidelines on death reporting. If someone violates them, they are commiting a criminal offense and for such, the burden of proof is at the accuser.

Norway for one, and with 5 times lower death rates than Sweden. Imagine that, keeping people alive and still having a good economy.

Sustained growth in the Norwegian economy

GDP for mainland Norway increased by 2.6 percent from the second to the third quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted figures show. The recovery of the Norwegian economy continued, employment rose, and increased prices on Norwegian exports gave a huge rise in the trade surplus.

www.ssb.no

I'm an individualist. Everyone is reaponsible for their own well being. Don't want to get COVID? Order groceries delivered, wear 5 masks on top of each other when out in public.. Keep 6 foot diatance etc. At this point, everyone had the chance to get vaccinated, reducing their risk by a HUGE margin. Government should be there to inform and people should make their own decisions. I 100% oppose a nanny state.

 

[JRP3]

Whenever I disprove your claims you change the subject.

I'm an individualist. Everyone is reaponsible for their own well being.

And everyone in a functioning society has responsibility to other members of society. Some people seem to have a childlike assumption that only they matter.

 

[CatB]

And everyone in a functioning society has responsibility to other members of society. Some people seem to have a childlike assumption that only they matter.

Right, so when the unvaxed are only allowed to use up their fair percentage of hospital rooms, ICU beds, etc. then we'll agree that they're accepting responsibility for their well-being and not infringing on the rights of others.
And hopefully, they'll have the decency to let children get first dibs, after all they are either not eligible for vaccination, or they're being penalized by the mistakes of their parents.

 

[golfcart]

Of course, FL economy is booming because tourism, no state income tax. Medicare funds so much healthcare for retirees, and now unemployment checks are going to people who prefer to be unvaxed, unemployed and living off the largesse of the rest of us taxpayers... (kidding, not kidding)

Population is booming if you actually read the link, though I hear the economy is doing well too. I actually made no mention of the economy. My point was actually that people are voting with their feet that they like the Florida pandemic response based on migration numbers.

Since you felt the need to interject with unrelated information and unsubstantiated speculation I do feel like I should point out that the unemployment rate is higher in both California and New York than Florida. And both those states have huge net migrations away from the state while Florida is growing.

Unemployment rate by state

NY to FL

Hopefully those 34,000 New Yorkers didn’t bring the virus with them and spread it around when they got down there.

I knew 3 people personally that moved from DC metro to Florida in the last year. None of them regret the decision and all are gainfully employed, saving money, and leading productive lives.

 

[SO16]

I'm an individualist. Everyone is reaponsible for their own well being. Don't want to get COVID? Order groceries delivered, wear 5 masks on top of each other when out in public.. Keep 6 foot diatance etc. At this point, everyone had the chance to get vaccinated, reducing their risk by a HUGE margin. Government should be there to inform and people should make their own decisions. I 100% oppose a nanny state.

I hope you remember this if you are ever denied healthcare due to the hospitals being full because of Covid patients and don’t take it out on the staff for not being able to get a bed.

And if this doesn’t happen to you or a loved one…well, lucky you. I guess for the ones that it does happen to…. Well tough luck?

This is why I’d be in favor of hospitals keeping a certain amount of beds open regardless of need if a person chooses not to be up to date on their vaccinations. People that tout personal responsibility and individualism should also deal with the consequences. Actions have consequences. It’s all about taking responsibility. We certainly cannot rely on enough people doing the right thing.

I just hope that Omicron is the last big wave because I’m getting darn sick of my local hospitals being stretched to overcapacity due to the vast majority of the Covid patients CHOOSING not to be up to date on their vaccines. I don’t like the idea of having to go another 30 minutes or an hour to the next available hospital if I was in a car accident or needed other critical care.

 

[golfcart]

This is why I’d be in favor of hospitals keeping a certain amount of beds open regardless of need if a person chooses not to be up to date on their vaccinations. People that tout personal responsibility and individualism should also deal with the consequences. Actions have consequences. It’s all about taking responsibility. We certainly cannot rely on enough people doing the right thing.

Exactly. I think we should turn away heart attack patients if they’re smokers or obese too. No care for drug addicts or alcoholics whose issues are caused by their addictions. No abortions unless you are up to date on your birth control. No surgery after a motorcycle accident if you aren’t wearing a helmet. And definitely no treatment for STDs unless all parties involved had negative tests within a week of the act and can verify that condoms were used. I’m tired of all these dumbass people making dumbass decisions and expecting to get treated at hospitals.

 

[SO16]

Exactly. I think we should turn away heart attack patients if they’re smokers or obese too. No care for drug addicts or alcoholics whose issues are caused by their addictions. No abortions or prenatal care unless you are up to date on your birth control. No surgery after a motorcycle accident if you aren’t wearing a helmet. And definitely no treatment for STDs unless all parties involved had negative tests within a week of the act and can verify that condoms were used. I’m tired of all these dumbass people making dumbass decisions and expecting to get treated at hospitals.

Not ONE of those other examples (or even all combined) are what is causing the hospitals to be overrun. Not even close. Nor have they EVER affected anyone else’s access to healthcare. But I do think people that make poor decisions should pay higher health premiums for insurance. (For easy to determine things like tobacco use or morbid obesity.)

Funny how we should “respect antivaxxers freedom” but we better give up our healthcare access for them and pay for their higher medical costs. Especially when the vaccine is so simple/free to get and very effective at reducing the need for a hospital bed/ICU/ventilator.

 

[shinytop]

"Not ONE of those other examples (or even all combined) are what is causing the hospitals to be overrun. Not even close. But I do think people that make poor decisions should pay higher health premiums for insurance. (Like tobacco use.)"

While I agree with those sentiments in principle I don't think it possible to put it into practice. How much government or insurance company overwatch do we want? Do we want neighbors reporting on neighbors? Do we want STD stations on each street corner so those hooking up can get checked easily? Do we want chips in condoms that report their use?

 

[SO16]

"Not ONE of those other examples (or even all combined) are what is causing the hospitals to be overrun. Not even close. But I do think people that make poor decisions should pay higher health premiums for insurance. (Like tobacco use.)"

While I agree with those sentiments in principle I don't think it possible to put it into practice. How much government or insurance company overwatch do we want? Do we want neighbors reporting on neighbors? Do we want STD stations on each street corner so those hooking up can get checked easily? Do we want chips in condoms that report their use?

Tobacco use and obesity is easy to determine. I wasn’t saying to track every single thing. I guess I should have been more clear when I just said tobacco use. Some Health plans track tobacco use now.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I feel like I have sufficient protection with my 2 shots of Pfizer in June

Sufficient is subjective, I guess.

Your anecdotal "but my 25 friends" is just that - anecdotal.

Yes. Another anecdote, to be fair and balanced with anecdotes:

Coronado-based Navy sailor battling COVID-19 placed on ventilator

The wife of a San Diego sailor is making a plea for prayers as her husband begins receiving a last-resort treatment for COVID-19.

www.10news.com

(Reasonable chance this was Delta, but who knows…)

Get your booster. It’s better. It’s not just for addressing variants. It’s just better. It is part of your initial vaccination.

Obviously, even with a booster, bad things can happen in unlucky cases. But they’re less likely.

I realize life comes with risks, but this is a major modifiable risk. Certainly it is not comparable to getting a flu shot every year - way bigger benefit here.

 

[golfcart]

Not ONE of those other examples (or even all combined) are what is causing the hospitals to be overrun. Not even close. Nor have they EVER affected anyone else’s access to healthcare. But I do think people that make poor decisions should pay higher health premiums for insurance. (Like tobacco use.)

Funny how we should “respect antivaxxers freedom” but we better give up our healthcare access for them and pay for their higher medical costs. Especially when the vaccine is so simple/free to get and very effective at reducing the need for a hospital bed/ICU/ventilator

That’s only because the size and capacity of our current healthcare system is based on our tacit acceptance of all those other dumbass decisions on a regular basis. Each patient is just an individual that takes up a bed regardless of which dumb decisions they made. The unvaxxed COVID patient only seems worse because you’ve attached them to the group of “antivaxxers” but they’re just one dumb person making dumb decisions just like the others. If we applied your principle universally we could have a much smaller healthcare system with much less capacity where only “deserving” people got treated. I think it’s genius actually.

 

[FloridaSun]

I hope you remember this if you are ever denied healthcare due to the hospitals being full because of Covid patients and don’t take it out on the staff for not being able to get a bed.

And if this doesn’t happen to you or a loved one…well, lucky you. I guess for the ones that it does happen to…. Well tough luck?

This is why I’d be in favor of hospitals keeping a certain amount of beds open regardless of need if a person chooses not to be up to date on their vaccinations. People that tout personal responsibility and individualism should also deal with the consequences. Actions have consequences. It’s all about taking responsibility. We certainly cannot rely on enough people doing the right thing.

I just hope that Omicron is the last big wave because I’m getting darn sick of my local hospitals being stretched to overcapacity due to the vast majority of the Covid patients CHOOSING not to be up to date on their vaccines. I don’t like the idea of having to go another 30 minutes or an hour to the next available hospital if I was in a car accident or needed other critical care.

Hospitals being overrun by patients has been greatly exxagerated by the media.
While it is true that some hospitals were at capacity, peope still got treatment at nearby facilities.