Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Note that this paper doesn't represent the situation most people will be in (since it is testing either Omicron booster OR Moderna "old" booster).

However, generally interesting findings, suggesting that there may not be a huge benefit to an Omicron-specific booster, because cross-reactive memory B cells are produced and become the majority of B-cells with EITHER booster. However, again, this is NOT the scenario that most people would be looking at. They would be boosting on top of another booster, which is not assessed here. That scenario will be tested in the Omicron booster trials, however (in addition to the other scenarios).

Also interesting was the finding that mucosal immunity is much stronger after boosting in general. And of course boosting improves cross-reactive memory B-cell quantities.

Anyway, it seems reasonable to think with these results that a fourth Omicron-specific booster would have diminishing returns, either due to already strong protection, original antigenic sin, or possibly lower immunogenicity of the structure of the Omicron spike. I still want it though. It might nudge the immune system enough towards Omicron neutralization to make a bit of a difference in likelihood of infection.

One thing it seems to mean for sure is that if you're not boosted, you should NOT wait for an Omicron booster. Get boosted! This was done in non-human primates, just to be clear.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489675533461831681

 

[EVNow]

Actually, reporting guidlines require to report the infected based on state of residence. This is not just in Florida.
Death reporting I believe happens a few days later in Florida, so the curve always seems to be dropping even if it isn't. The way Florida reports those is different while the way non residents are counted is the same everywhere.

WA reports the same way - but they show recent days in grey to emphasize incomplete data.

 

[EVNow]

I'm in full agreement that we should have never shutdown schools unless we were actually serious about #zerocovid (which in hindsight I don't think the US had a snowball's chance in hell of pulling off).

Considering a lot of households have seniors too (in our case 85+ yr old parents) I’m glad the schools closed.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Considering a lot of households have seniors too (in our case 85+ yr old parents) I’m glad the schools closed.

I should clarify that there should have been a remote option. I just think schools should have opened before any "non-essential" business.

I was thinking about "lockdown" studies and I was wondering if the anti-lockdown side really thinks that lockdowns did nothing to delay cases? And if they delayed cases wouldn't they have saved lives? Or did doctors learn nothing about treating COVID in the first few months?

 

[EVNow]

I should clarify that there should have been a remote option. I just think schools should have opened before any "non-essential" business.

I was thinking about "lockdown" studies and I was wondering if the anti-lockdown side really thinks that lockdowns did nothing to delay cases? And if they delayed cases wouldn't they have saved lives? Or did doctors learn nothing about treating COVID in the first few months?

I just think - if the age situation was reversed (ie. kids being more susceptible than seniors) - there would be vigilantes in every city shooting at people without masks

Clearly people attach low value for the life of seniors.

ps : We have periodically pulled out our kids from scholl this year too - esp. Omicron and Delta highs. I wish we had hybrid ...

 

[Daniel in SD]

I just think - if the age situation was reversed (ie. kids being more susceptible than seniors) - there would be vigilantes in every city shooting at people without masks

Clearly people attach low value for the life of seniors.

I agree with that. However I think it's rational to value the lives of children higher than seniors.

 

[wdolson]

On NPR today there was a discussion between a reported in Beijing for the Olympics and one of the anchors. She had been covering China before the pandemic and they talked about the extreme measures the government took to keep COVID under control. It does appear the extreme measures did keep spread down, so lock downs can work to curb the spread, but it takes extreme measures to work. The way the rest of the world did lock downs was leaky and was obviously not as effective.

I think we need to do more study to see just how much lock downs worked to slow the spread. Looking at it on a state level is not fine enough. To get an accurate picture takes looking on a more granular level. Some states had horrific outbreaks in some part of the state, but were lightly hit in other areas. For example in California the Bay Area countries were relatively lightly hit compared to the country as a whole, while Los Angeles got hit hard in the late spring of 2020 and the central valley also got hit hard.

I watched the spread happen in California. It first got bad in the Imperial Valley during the spring harvest, then spread to Los Angeles around the time the harvest ended, next it spread to the San Joaquin Valley. The Bay Area was lightly hit throughout this wave. It followed the migrant farm workers. They first harvested the spring crops in the Imperial Valley, which are among the first crops harvested in the US every year. Then they had a few weeks break before crops started coming in further north, so they visited family in Los Angeles before heading to the central valley.

The Bay Area had the advantage of having some living memory of pandemics from the AIDS pandemic in the 80s. The nature of this pandemic was different, but people were more aware that you don't mess around with a deadly virus.

 

[shinytop]

There is only one problem with current policy regarding Covid. There are many things we should do that are related to lockdowns. These include mask and proof of vaccination before entry to any public place. But these are not perfect. So what is the biggest protection we have found so far. That's right, vaccinations. Now I am not saying vaccinations are perfect but they are better than anything we have found except isolation and that cannot be implemented. But when even the most ardent anti-vaxxer (my freedom to not get a shot outweighs your freedom to live crowd) can't fly, go out to eat, get groceries then even the stupidest will get in line. Require vaccinations, damnit. Get vax centers setup everywhere. Use government to get vaccinations to every place in the country. Make them available to the immobile in their homes.

We have lost 900,000 plus lives to this virus. How many more must we lose because of ignorance?

 

[EVNow]

However I think it's rational to value the lives of children higher than seniors.

I don't know how rational that is - but we have regularly killed hundreds of thousands of kids because some old politician thought it was fine. And people have supported such efforts in large majorities.

 

[EVNow]

It does appear the extreme measures did keep spread down, so lock downs can work to curb the spread, but it takes extreme measures to work. The way the rest of the world did lock downs was leaky and was obviously not as effective.

I think it is possible to be strict about lockdown without the associated inhumanity.

NewZealand has a population similar that that of South Colorina ~ 5M.

Deaths in New Zealand : 15
Deaths in South Colorina : 15,971

But China is the only country that has completely kept cases under check after the initial pandemic. For all the weird sh*t Elon has said about Covid, he hasn't said a word about Chinese methods.

 

[madodel]

I think it is possible to be strict about lockdown without the associated inhumanity.

NewZealand has a population similar that that of South Colorina ~ 5M.

Deaths in New Zealand : 15
Deaths in South Colorina : 15,971

But China is the only country that has completely kept cases under check after the initial pandemic. For all the weird sh*t Elon has said about Covid, he hasn't said a word about Chinese methods.

It is easier to contain entry into an island than a country that has land borders. But not quarantining people from the beginning who came into the US through land entries, airports and ports was a huge mistake. Hopefully someone learns something from this and makes some plan and preparations for a future pandemic. Maybe some supplies of masks would be a nice gesture as well.

 

[ohmman]

 

[EVNow]

It is easier to contain entry into an island than a country that has land borders. But not quarantining people from the beginning who came into the US through land entries, airports and ports was a huge mistake. Hopefully someone learns something from this and makes some plan and preparations for a future pandemic. Maybe some supplies of masks would be a nice gesture as well.

Sure - New Zealand had some unique geographic features. But not all island countries have such low fatality rates.

The only way this could have been contained was to ban all flights to China as soon as the situation was known and then be very strict about quarantining, tracing etc. Not just by US but by all countries. But the entire world is so economically dependent on China, this had no chance of actually happening ... if Covid had originated elsewhere, say Iran - it just wouldn't have spread like Covid did.

 

[Double-O]

There is only one problem with current policy regarding Covid. There are many things we should do that are related to lockdowns. These include mask and proof of vaccination before entry to any public place. But these are not perfect. So what is the biggest protection we have found so far. That's right, vaccinations. Now I am not saying vaccinations are perfect but they are better than anything we have found except isolation and that cannot be implemented. But when even the most ardent anti-vaxxer (my freedom to not get a shot outweighs your freedom to live crowd) can't fly, go out to eat, get groceries then even the stupidest will get in line. Require vaccinations, damnit. Get vax centers setup everywhere. Use government to get vaccinations to every place in the country. Make them available to the immobile in their homes.

We have lost 900,000 plus lives to this virus. How many more must we lose because of ignorance?

You can't be serious.

Over 75% of vaxxed deaths have had a minimum of 4 underlying health conditions. This is per CDC.

Again, I'll use sports arenas/stadiums for example.

Vaxx card gets you straight in. No questions asked. This may have been "acceptable" back when everyone assumed vaxx was the solution and would prevent you from getting it or passing it on to someone but this is completely unacceptable of an approach if the end goal is prevention or reduction of spread. Almost no one wears a mask at a game even though it's mandated. Getting vaxxed may help some, specifically the elderly and those who are have underlying health conditions but this isn't and never has been a blanket protection for the masses. Let's get real.

A vaccinated person can get in a rapid test line to get into whatever indoor function and test positive, hop out that line and get in a line showing his vaxx card and walk right in. Said individual is covid positive and yet this can and has happened. How is this acceptable? It doesn't matter if the chances of spread are reduced in a vaxxed individual. It's not zero and obviously with omicron, it's greater than other variants so getting vaxxed isn't the end all be all solution.

 

[ohmman]

Over 75% of vaxxed deaths have had a minimum of 4 underlying health conditions. This is per CDC.

I'm trying to figure out how this supports your argument, so please excuse me if I'm being dense. This statement suggests that vaccinated people are not dying often unless they have at least 4 underlying health conditions. So, basically, vaccination is valuable and keeps people from dying except in mostly troubled situations.

Getting vaxxed may help some, specifically the elderly and those who are have underlying health conditions but this isn't and never has been a blanket protection for the masses.

But your statement above argues differently. Indeed, it says that death in vaccinated individuals mostly occurs if they have multiple underlying conditions.

 

[shinytop]

Reading comprehension is a lost art on some. I believe I said vaccination was not perfect but is better than anything else we have. 00, can you please share what is better. The world wants to know.

 

[wdolson]

There is only one problem with current policy regarding Covid. There are many things we should do that are related to lockdowns. These include mask and proof of vaccination before entry to any public place. But these are not perfect. So what is the biggest protection we have found so far. That's right, vaccinations. Now I am not saying vaccinations are perfect but they are better than anything we have found except isolation and that cannot be implemented. But when even the most ardent anti-vaxxer (my freedom to not get a shot outweighs your freedom to live crowd) can't fly, go out to eat, get groceries then even the stupidest will get in line. Require vaccinations, damnit. Get vax centers setup everywhere. Use government to get vaccinations to every place in the country. Make them available to the immobile in their homes.

We have lost 900,000 plus lives to this virus. How many more must we lose because of ignorance?

In an ideal world where everyone is getting the same factual information and is willing and capable of understanding nuanced information, a vaccination mandate has a good chance of working. Not just in the US, but in quite a few countries there are people who have chosen to believe charlatans and liars over factual sources and too often those people also have a tendency toward violence.

In most of the US the vaccine is ready available pretty much everywhere. With vaccination rates over 50% in many areas and the remaining population resistant, large scale vaccination centers are a waste of effort. Here in this small town of about 12,000 people there are three places I know of to get vaccinated if you want it. There was a bit of a back up when people were getting the boosters, but now it's essentially next day.

I think it is possible to be strict about lockdown without the associated inhumanity.

NewZealand has a population similar that that of South Colorina ~ 5M.

Deaths in New Zealand : 15
Deaths in South Colorina : 15,971

But China is the only country that has completely kept cases under check after the initial pandemic. For all the weird sh*t Elon has said about Covid, he hasn't said a word about Chinese methods.

Any place that can control its borders easily has a leg up on containing a pandemic. Australia has also fared much better than most developed countries. Here in the US Hawaii did quite well too. Australia and I believe New Zealand also have histories of strict import controls to try and curb invasive species. The mechanism as already there at the beginning of the pandemic.

Of countries with land borders to other countries and normally heavy trade across its borders, it has probably fared the best compared to the rest of the world. But it has taken draconian measures.

I don't think China has done quite as good as they claim. Their media has a history of playing hide the ball to make everything look rosy, but they still have probably fared better than other continental countries.

In the piece on NPR I heard yesterday the reporter said that China locked down like it did expecting COVID to go away, but now that it looks like it's going to become a somewhat bad endemic disease they are going to have to shift focus and figure out how to live with it with the rest of the world. Apparently the population went along with the draconian measures early on, but starting with Delta last year, the measures have become more common and people are beginning to grumble.

Their lock downs can happen without warning. The reporter interviewed a woman who was only on her second date with a guy and was over at his parents' house when a flash lockdown happened and she had to be locked in with them for several weeks. Another case someone who had been in a business meeting at an office building got a notice to return to the building the next morning. She found out someone had tested positive in the building and everyone who had been in the building at the time were locked in there for a few days with only sleeping bags, no showers, and no privacy. She had to sleep on a window sill.

Many of the east Asian countries have also done fairly well without the draconian measures China did. Like the Bay Area, they had living memory of dealing with a serious infectious disease outbreak. SARS was something that was a very scary and real threat in east Asia, but most of the rest of the world had little contact with it. Many countries also put more measures into place to test and control the outbreaks than western countries did.

The western developed countries could have done better, but the virus quickly got politicized and that made controlling it much more difficult. The politicization has been very prominent in the US, but it has also been a factor in other western countries too.

 

[Double-O]

Reading comprehension is a lost art on some. I believe I said vaccination was not perfect but is better than anything else we have. 00, can you please share what is better.

Point is, vaxxed individuals get treated as if they have a permanent pass. Common sense and logic doesn't apply when it comes to the purpose of a vaxx card. Testing everyone before entering any large indoor gathering makes more sense than just accepting a vaxx card. Regardless of the efficacy of the vaccine, having a vaxx card somehow makes an individual immune to the virus. This is how establishments are told to treat people because of the amount of brainwashing that's taken place. You have a vaxx card? Welcome. A person could be asymptomatic and it wouldn't matter because he carries a silly vaxx card. Unvaxxed? Sorry, you're not welcome here. Doesn't matter if this guy is negative. The risk between these 2 types of individuals in society is defined by a useless vaxx card. Again, this may have been some kinda benefit early on since no one knew what was what but these days, it means absolutely nothing.

Most of the people are completely over this mess. Just look outside, look on tv, watch your favorite sports team play. You need a vaxx and a mask to get in. Once you're in, you don't need to social distance or wear a mask. Almost no one does.

I mentioned the death in vaxxed because the mention of 900k deaths. Who knows exactly how many of those was directly caused by covid and nothing else. No one does. So to mention a death count of 900k in the same context of pushing the vaccine insinuates that the vaccine will prevent contribution to the death count which obviously is false. Of course the vaxx isn't perfect. This push for vaxx mandate has gotten some people not seeing straight and has seriously clouded ones logical judgment. The mandate was tossed in the trash. No idea why it's still even being mentioned. If one feels this is the solution for them, cool. Vaxx on. This blame on the unvaxxed is getting old.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Point is, vaxxed individuals get treated as if they have a permanent pass. Common sense and logic doesn't apply when it comes to the purpose of a vaxx card. Testing everyone before entering any large indoor gathering makes more sense than just accepting a vaxx card. Regardless of the efficacy of the vaccine, having a vaxx card somehow makes an individual immune to the virus. This is how establishments are told to treat people because of the amount of brainwashing that's taken place. You have a vaxx card? Welcome. A person could be asymptomatic and it wouldn't matter because he carries a silly vaxx card. Unvaxxed? Sorry, you're not welcome here. Doesn't matter if this guy is negative. The risk between these 2 types of individuals in society is defined by a useless vaxx card. Again, this may have been some kinda benefit early on since no one knew what was what but these days, it means absolutely nothing.

Most of the people are completely over this mess. Just look outside, look on tv, watch your favorite sports team play. You need a vaxx and a mask to get in. Once you're in, you don't need to social distance or wear a mask. Almost no one does.

I mentioned the death in vaxxed because the mention of 900k deaths. Who knows exactly how many of those was directly caused by covid and nothing else. No one does. So to mention a death count of 900k in the same context of pushing the vaccine insinuates that the vaccine will prevent contribution to the death count which obviously is false. Of course the vaxx isn't perfect. This push for vaxx mandate has gotten some people not seeing straight and has seriously clouded ones logical judgment. The mandate was tossed in the trash. No idea why it's still even being mentioned. If one feels this is the solution for them, cool. Vaxx on. This blame on the unvaxxed is getting old.

Couldn't you look at excess deaths statistic to determine how many people died who would not have otherwise?

I think you're overthinking things. It's very simple.

• Most people are over this mess.
• Vaccines mandates require people to be vaccinated to be over this mess (e.g. go to large indoor events, go into offices to work, etc.)
• People who would not otherwise get vaccinated get vaccinated so they can be over this mess.
• Vaccines reduce the transmission, chances of going to hospital, or dying.
• Less sickness and death

Note that I'm not making an argument about the morality of vaccine mandates.

 

[msm859]

Couldn't you look at excess deaths statistic to determine how many people died who would not have otherwise?

I think you're overthinking things. It's very simple.

• Most people are over this mess.
• Vaccines mandates require people to be vaccinated to be over this mess (e.g. go to large indoor events, go into offices to work, etc.)
• People who would not otherwise get vaccinated get vaccinated so they can be over this mess.
• Vaccines reduce the transmission, chances of going to hospital, or dying.
• Less sickness and death

Note that I'm not making an argument about the morality of vaccine mandates.

I will make the morale argument. If you are a Christian you should get vaccinated. That is what Jesus would say. The Pope said it is a moral obligation for everyone to get vaccinated. He is correct. Part of living in a civil society is the social compact. Sometimes we have to do things for the good of all. The only reason we are talking about "mandates" is sadly there are too many selfish and ignorant people. Health insurance should no longer cover treatment for unvaccinated people. The unvaccinated should not be allowed on planes or trains. The math and science is unequivocal. We have been too timid for too long.