Coronavirus

[traxila]

At this point I am not sure how well proof of vaccination would actually work especially in highly vaccinated areas or countries. For example, supposedly Israel has 97 or 98% compliance so I imagine most breakthrough cases being spread are from the vaccinated. Perhaps it is because the vaccine works so well that symptoms are reduced or to the point of being asymptomatic so many go about their daily business.

There are large parts of the Israeli population that are not vaccinated and never will be. Ever.

 

[scottf200]

I am not sure what you mean by compliance. Israel is not highly vaccinated. They have a rate of vaccination similar to the United States. Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491073741480394753

 

[SDRick]

I am not sure what you mean by compliance. Israel is not highly vaccinated. They have a rate of vaccination similar to the United States. Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19

Thanks for the link.

I was referring to a link on Reuters (99%) and NPR showing a 78% Israeli vaccination rate (as of August last year). Surprised that these numbers can vary so much depending on the criteria and source..

Vaccination​

Israel has administered at least 17,923,712 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 99% of the country’s population.

Israel: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps

Tracking the COVID-19 outbreak, updated daily

graphics.reuters.com

Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing A Dramatic Surge In New COVID Cases. Here's Why

What happened? Here are six lessons learned from Israel's experience — and one looming question for the future of the pandemic.

www.npr.org

 

[wdolson]

I think it's possible, but this is extremely difficult to measure. Measles isn't a novel virus, and immunity against measles seems to be quite robust (thankfully, since it is not uncommon for measles to destroy your immune system and make you vulnerable to everything which you previously were immune to!).

For coronavirus, it's difficult to determine whether increases in rate of spread and how quickly a variant takes over from other variants are due to shorter serial interval, or greater transmissibility, or immune escape characteristics of the new variant.

Remember that the original virus spread extremely quickly as well (Wuhan & NYC come to mind). We had similar levels of mitigations in place over Christmas & New Year's this past year, so you'd expect rapid spread in the absence of immunity (which was definitely in short supply!). And indeed the results seemed similar. (I'd guess a similar (same order of magnitude) number of people in NY were infected in the initial wave - perhaps as much as half the number as were infected by Omicron? I haven't really gone back and dug into the numbers, but under-ascertainment was huge in that first wave in NYC. WAGs here.)

I think it's fairly clear that Omicron is considerably more contagious than the original given the substantially higher numbers of cases observed in most places...but as contagious as measles? Tough to make that comparison at this time. Maybe in a few months or a year, after there's been some time to study spread in various different scenarios, we'll have a better idea of the exact numbers. I'd guess an R0 of 6 or 7, but really a total WAG.

Fauci is optimistic at least, though note that he doesn't like to talk about "endemicity" - seems to me we have a ways to go before we can talk about that and what that might look like. Malaria and tuberculosis are also endemic. Hopefully we don't have that sort of situation!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491205840036319232

We are headed towards endemic, but COVID is still much more dangerous than anything else that's endemic. Malaria is the closest comparison, but it doesn't lay low large swaths of the population at once and it only is a problem in certain climates. There is TB in the US, but the cases are on the order of 2 per 100,000 per year. That's less than 10,000 cases a year. It is still a serious problem in the developing world.

There is no such thing as a serious, endemic disease loose in the general population in developed countries since widespread vaccination became common. Dying from non-infectious diseases is far more common in these countries. My parents were born in the 1920s and they grew up in the tail end of the era where infectious diseases killed a lot of people. Before COVID I can only think of one person I knew who died of an infectious disease (got a super bug in the hospital). I've known lots of people who died of non-infectious causes: heart attack, stroke, cancer, old age, etc.

Thanks for the link.

I was referring to a link on Reuters (99%) and NPR showing a 78% vaccination rate (as of August last year). Surprised that these numbers can vary so much depending on the criteria and source..

Vaccination​

Israel has administered at least 17,923,712 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 99% of the country’s population.

Israel: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps

Tracking the COVID-19 outbreak, updated daily

graphics.reuters.com

Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing A Dramatic Surge In New COVID Cases. Here's Why

What happened? Here are six lessons learned from Israel's experience — and one looming question for the future of the pandemic.

www.npr.org

I believe in Israel there is a big difference in vaccination rates between Arab Israelis and Jewish Israelis. That might be why the numbers differ so much.

 

[ohmman]

Vaccination​

Israel has administered at least 17,923,712 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 99% of the country’s population.

Enough to have vaccinated 99% doesn't equate to 99% being vaccinated, though. Some may have had 3 or more. This is more of take the total and divide by the population (times two). That's a very different statistic.

 

[Yuri_G]

Enough to have vaccinated 99% doesn't equate to 99% being vaccinated, though. Some may have had 3 or more. This is more of take the total and divide by the population (times two). That's a very different statistic.

Bloomberg keeps good track of this. You can see many countries have more vaccine than double their population now.

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories

www.bloomberg.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

78% Israeli vaccination rate

NPR article: "and 78% of eligible Israelis over 12 years old are vaccinated."

Eligibility criteria have since changed (5 and older now). There are 1.2 million children between 5 and 11 out of 9.4 million people. And also when referencing total population you would have to include 0-4.

It all makes sense.

78% (that was in August, so presumably it's a bit higher now) isn't all that good, even if you're just talking about 12 and older, as compared to some of the other countries in the images posted above. But in any case that'll probably lead to something on the order of 1/3 to 1/2 of infections being in the unvaccinated depending on exact efficacy, booster uptake, etc.

 

[FloridaSun]

Update on my COVID infection... As I previously posted, my wife first tested positive on 1/26 with an antigen home test. She followed up on 1/27 with the PCR lab test which came back on 1/29 also positive She had mild common cold symptoms. I initially tested with the home antigen test on 1/27 and it came back negative.
On 1/31, I tested again with the antigen home test and came back positive. The wife maintained common cold symptoms and I remained asymtomatic. On 2/4, 9 days after the initial positive Antigen test and 8 days after the first PCR test, she had another PCR test.. Still positive.. I also had a PCR test done last Sunday 2/6 and on Monday 2/7 it came back that I was still positive. It seems that the infection lasts longer than the 5 days quarantine that the CDC recommends, at least for me and my wife. Wife's common cold symptoms seem to be mostly gone by now and I'm still asymptomatic and have been at least 8 days with the virus. Not sure how high the likelyhood of spreading is after that many days with the virus.

 

[ohmman]

Update on my COVID infection... As I previously posted, my wife first tested positive on 1/26 with an antigen home test. She followed up on 1/27 with the PCR lab test which came back on 1/29 also positive She had mild common cold symptoms. I initially tested with the home antigen test on 1/27 and it came back negative.
On 1/31, I tested again with the antigen home test and came back positive. The wife maintained common cold symptoms and I remained asymtomatic. On 2/4, 9 days after the initial positive Antigen test and 8 days after the first PCR test, she had another PCR test.. Still positive.. I also had a PCR test done last Sunday 2/6 and on Monday 2/7 it came back that I was still positive. It seems that the infection lasts longer than the 5 days quarantine that the CDC recommends, at least for me and my wife. Wife's common cold symptoms seem to be mostly gone by now and I'm still asymptomatic and have been at least 8 days with the virus. Not sure how high the likelyhood of spreading is after that many days with the virus.View attachment 766758

Glad to hear you're both in good shape!

 

[FloridaSun]

Glad to hear you're both in good shape!

Thanks.. it just sucks to quarantine when feeling great.. I'll test again with the home antigen test before the weekend and hope to be negative so that I can get out for at least the weekend.. Wife should be negative by then too.. I find this so weird that I have absolutely no symptoms and yet maintained infection for over a week..

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It seems that the infection lasts longer than the 5 days quarantine that the CDC recommends, at least for me and my wife.

A PCR test does not require live virus - it finds RNA fragments and amplifies them, so can potentially test positive for weeks after an infection (though it can run clear sooner). It is quite sensitive, though it can also have false negatives. I know someone who was symptomatic and had been for a couple days, got a PCR test, and tested negative. They ended up passing it to someone else as a result (they didn't assume they had COVID, as you should if you have any symptoms), several days later. Then they finally tested positive.

The antigen test is a better predictor on the downward side of an infection of when you are still infectious.

I find this so weird that I have absolutely no symptoms and yet maintained infection for over a week..

Well, you're vaccinated. Also, even before vaccination, there were a considerable number of asymptomatic infections (some estimates were as high as 40%). It is weird though. It's not clear whether vaccination increases the number of asymptomatic infections or just reduces symptom severity in the symptomatic cases.
It's not extremely well studied, I think, but in general the lower the level of symptoms, the less of an immune response and protection against future infection you will have. There definitely have been studies suggesting this, but I think it's probably not a super crisp relationship. It's just a correlation.

Glad you're doing well. Asymptomatic is good!

 

[FloridaSun]

A PCR test does not require live virus - it finds RNA fragments and amplifies them, so can potentially test positive for weeks after an infection (though it can run clear sooner). It is quite sensitive, though it can also have false negatives. I know someone who was symptomatic and had been for a couple days, got a PCR test, and tested negative. They ended up passing it to someone else as a result (they didn't assume they had COVID, as you should if you have any symptoms), several days later. Then they finally tested positive.

The antigen test is a better predictor on the downward side of an infection of when you are still infectious.


Well, you're vaccinated. Also, even before vaccination, there were a considerable number of asymptomatic infections (some estimates were as high as 40%). It is weird though. It's not clear whether vaccination increases the number of asymptomatic infections or just reduces symptom severity in the symptomatic cases.
It's not extremely well studied, I think, but in general the lower the level of symptoms, the less of an immune response and protection against future infection you will have. There definitely have been studies suggesting this, but I think it's probably not a super crisp relationship. It's just a correlation.

Glad you're doing well. Asymptomatic is good!

Interesting to know, I always thought that the PCR test was a better indication of infection.. I will test with Antigen test on Friday and hope to be virus free by then. Keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[madodel]

I asked my wife (a cardiologist for 30 years) if she has ever seen a patient with cardiac issues from a COVID vaccine. She has never seen any cases of vaccine induced cardiac issues in the 2 years she has been dealing with COVID patients everyday. What cases she has read about were a few mostly male youths with immune response myocarditis that is self limiting. She has seen COVID induced myocarditis and pericarditis but most of what she is seeing is arrhythmias, predominately atrial fibrillation. And she sees some of these people everyday and pretty much all are unvaccinated. Many were asymptomatic with COVID with them being tested because of other reasons.

 

[madodel]

The director of the hospital my surgeon brother works in had a heart attack 3 months after Covid. No prior heart issues.

This is why good stats are better than anecdotal data

Not sure of your point. My point is the people who keep insisting that vaccines are causing heart disease are spreading misinformation. I've asked her about this before and this time was triggered by reading nonsense on the Internet yet again. A guy in a high stress job, having a heart attack is a single anecdotal data point with zero information about his COVID status. My wife has seen literally hundreds of these COVID patients over the past 2 years. And no cases of a heart issue onset after a COVID vaccination, A study would be confirmation, but I'd feel pretty comfortable saying it is rare at best in adults. And certainly not a reasonable reason to not get vaccinated.

 

[EVNow]

Not sure of your point. My point is the people who keep insisting that vaccines are causing heart disease are spreading misinformation. I've asked her about this before and this time was triggered by reading nonsense on the Internet yet again. A guy in a high stress job, having a heart attack is a single anecdotal data point with zero information about his COVID status. My wife has seen literally hundreds of these COVID patients over the past 2 years. And no cases of a heart issue onset after a COVID vaccination, A study would be confirmation, but I'd feel pretty comfortable saying it is rare at best in adults. And certainly not a reasonable reason to not get vaccinated.

I misunderstood - this was a case of heart problem after Covid (not after vaccination). Deleted the post.

 

[JRP3]

CLAIM: A report by health officials in the United Kingdom showed that the COVID-19 vaccines are “damaging the immune response” in people who were vaccinated after a previous infection.

AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. The report did not reach that conclusion. The finding being referenced dealt with people who were infected after being vaccinated — not the reverse — and experts say it showed that vaccine-induced immunity was working properly.

THE FACTS: A video clip of a Yale epidemiologist who spoke at a panel discussion on COVID-19 Monday is spreading on social media, misrepresenting what a report by U.K. health officials found.

UK report did not find COVID-19 vaccines damage immune response

A video clip of a Yale epidemiologist who spoke at a panel discussion on COVID-19 Monday is spreading on social media, misrepresenting what a report by U.K. health officials found.

apnews.com

 

[TespaceX]

Thanks for the link.

I was referring to a link on Reuters (99%) and NPR showing a 78% Israeli vaccination rate (as of August last year). Surprised that these numbers can vary so much depending on the criteria and source..

Vaccination​

Israel has administered at least 17,923,712 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 99% of the country’s population.

Israel: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps

Tracking the COVID-19 outbreak, updated daily

graphics.reuters.com

Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing A Dramatic Surge In New COVID Cases. Here's Why

What happened? Here are six lessons learned from Israel's experience — and one looming question for the future of the pandemic.

www.npr.org

From the same exact website you are referencing:

 

[madodel]

Old Drug May Have New Trick: Protecting Against COVID-19 Lung Injury

Good news regarding lung damage from immune response in COVID-19 infections:

The researchers, whose report appears Feb. 8 in JCI Insight, found that the drug disulfiram protected rodents from immune-mediated lung injury in two separate models of this type of injury: infection with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and a lung failure syndrome called TRALI that in rare cases occurs after blood transfusion.​

 

[cwerdna]

Hope this isn't a repeat. I saw what's in the video at Protesters angry over Covid-19 mandates blocked roads in Canada. Now a judge has temporarily banned some from honking their horns on TV a few days ago.

Now the nuttiness is affecting auto production besides other US/Canada trade:

Stellantis production hampered by lingering bridge blockade between U.S. and Canada

Stellantis confirmed that its Windsor Assembly Plant "had to short shift its first shift due to parts shortages" on Tuesday. The truckers' protest against the Canadian government's Covid policies lingered into its third day at the Detroit-Windsor bridge.

www.autonews.com

Ford says Detroit/Windsor bridge disruption impacting Canadian plants

Ford Motor Co said on Wednesday that an interruption to traffic at a key U.S.-Canadian bridge, as a result of demonstration against coronavirus mandates, has hurt production at some of the second largest U.S. automaker's plants in Canada.

www.reuters.com

Ford, Toyota halt some output as U.S., Canada warn on trucker protests

Ford and Toyota on Wednesday both said they were halting some production as anti-coronavirus mandate protesters blocked U.S-Canada border crossings that have prompted warnings from Washington and Ottawa of economic damage.

www.reuters.com

 

[JRP3]

Even people with mild covid can have longer term heart issues.

An average of one year after their recovery from the acute phase of the infection, the COVID-19 survivors had a 63% higher risk for heart attack, a 69% higher risk for problematic irregular heart rhythm, a 52% higher risk of stroke, a 72% higher risk of heart failure, and a nearly three times higher risk of a potentially fatal blood clot in the lungs compared with the other two groups,

The risks were high even in people who had mild COVID-19 and did not need to be hospitalized for it, he noted in a Twitter thread. "It really spared no one," Al-Aly told Reuters. "People with COVID-19 should pay attention to their health and seek medical care if they experience symptoms like chest pain, chest pressure, palpitation, swelling in the legs, etc."

Risk of new heart problems jumps after COVID; mRNA shot side effects no different for cancer patients

Long after recovery from COVID-19, people face significantly higher risks for new heart problems, a large study has found. Researchers at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs compared rates of new cardiovascular problems in 153,760 individuals infected with the coronavirus before vaccines...

www.yahoo.com