Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

I just imagine they have undercounted their deaths quite a bit in the official reporting. I am just replying to the other guy saying that the Chinese situation will be interesting to watch. It’s only interesting to me if I believe the numbers. At the end of the day it’s not that important though I’m just about over worrying about COVID unless some wicked new variant comes along… I’m not gonna be sitting around staring at the data like I did 3 months ago.

Just a note that China did later update the death toll by 50% for the Wuhan outbreak.

Coronavirus: China outbreak city Wuhan raises death toll by 50%

The revision of Wuhan's toll comes amid growing scepticism over the transparency of China's response.

www.bbc.com

I just think if there is another massive outbreak in China we will know and it seems really hard to prevent massive Omicron outbreaks.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Seriously though it looks like we're going to have a nice spring and summer

Hopefully not too hot.

 

[Daniel in SD]

BEIJING — China is facing its biggest coronavirus outbreak since the early days of the pandemic, with more than 800 new cases reported over the weekend — almost as many as were reported altogether during the previous week.

Most of the new infections have been fueled by the Omicron variant, which has been identified in nearly a dozen major cities, including Shanghai, Xi’an, Suzhou, Qingdao and Wenzhou. A few cases of the Delta variant have been reported near China’s borders with Mongolia and Myanmar.

“Right now the epidemic situation is severe and complex, with many uncertain factors,” said Wu Jinglei, the director of the Shanghai Health Commission.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/07/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#a-surge-in-cases-is-challenging-chinas-zero-covid-approach

 

[Daniel in SD]

Hopefully not too hot.

It will cool down significantly after the firestorms giving us a nice respite from global warming.

 

[JRP3]

For people who never got COVID, what are the odds they never will? Here’s what experts say

As pandemic restrictions start to come down again, how likely are the 57% of people not...

www.sfchronicle.com

“From my perspective, no, it’s not inevitable” over the next year or two, said UCSF Chair of Medicine Dr. Bob Wachter, who also hasn’t gotten COVID yet. He said when case rates are low, as they are now in the Bay Area, the roughly 60% of the population that has not had COVID is unlikely to get it, “since they won’t be exposed very much.”

 

[Daniel in SD]

For people who never got COVID, what are the odds they never will? Here’s what experts say

As pandemic restrictions start to come down again, how likely are the 57% of people not...

www.sfchronicle.com

“From my perspective, no, it’s not inevitable” over the next year or two, said UCSF Chair of Medicine Dr. Bob Wachter, who also hasn’t gotten COVID yet. He said when case rates are low, as they are now in the Bay Area, the roughly 60% of the population that has not had COVID is unlikely to get it, “since they won’t be exposed very much.”

The 43% is based on blood samples up to Jan 29th. There have been a lot of infections since then and it takes time to produce antibodies so the number is even higher than that.
I still haven't gotten COVID but I've decided to follow the CDC guidance for San Diego county and go mask free from now on. We'll see what happens! I'm a little concerned because asking around the office I found that none of my coworkers have had it either... bunch of antisocial engineers I guess.

 

[JRP3]

The 43% is based on blood samples up to Jan 29th. There have been a lot of infections since then and it takes time to produce antibodies so the number is even higher than that.

Yeah I thought that number was probably on the low side.

 

[EVNow]

I still haven't gotten COVID but I've decided to follow the CDC guidance for San Diego county and go mask free from now on. We'll see what happens! I'm a little concerned because asking around the office I found that none of my coworkers have had it either... bunch of antisocial engineers I guess.

In my team nobody got it either. Including people who went everywhere (but masked and vaxxed).

 

[EVNow]

I just think if there is another massive outbreak in China we will know and it seems really hard to prevent massive Omicron outbreaks.

Though it is obviously easier to fudge numbers in autocratic countries, I don’t think it serves any purpose in China now to fudge … so I expect the numbers to be correct.

It would have made sense that reported numbers in Russia and Iran were lower than actual, but we still knew they had massive outbreaks. Ultimately you can’t hide sick people sleeping in hospital corridors.

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500865562632769540

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500865562632769540

Note that many (if not all?) of these people were unvaccinated, based on the window in which they were infected (ending April 2021). And they were certainly unboosted.

It's not clear what this finding means, in any case.

Get vaccinated! Even if you have a fairly serious case after vaccination, you may well be better off in terms of long-term sequelae than someone unvaccinated who has a mild case. I don't get the sense that symptom severity is particularly correlated with the "depth" of infection (what the virus reaches).

 

[EVNow]

Sad statistics … co-incidentally about the same number who were killed in the holocaust.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501288698758844419

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I find it remarkable how high the cases in places like UK, France, etc. are still. I don't really understand it, since their vaccination rates are relatively high and I don't get the sense that they had had (previously) substantially fewer infections than the US (maybe they did?). Maybe they have better testing/reporting? They seem to be following the same trajectory (they're way off their peaks), but just at much higher levels. But ascertainment rates can't explain it entirely...can it (France for example has about 5x the per capita case rate)?

Anyway, makes me wonder about future prospects for the US. Depends what is going on. Maybe a ton of people still have it in the US but aren't bothering to get tested.

 

[EVNow]

France / UK have higher density ?

PS :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501257683504087043

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

France / UK have higher density ?

PS :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501257683504087043

Maybe. But if that really is the reason, I would kind of expect a couple more large waves in the US (and I don't really expect that). If the ascertainment rates are the same, a much larger % of the population have been infected in the Omicron wave in these other countries. For example, assuming 4x underascertainment, 13M*4 = 52 million (80% of the population) have been infected in France, whereas in the US it is 30M*4 = 120 million, just 36%. These %s are just for the Omicron wave. Maybe we're just really good at stopping COVID in the US?

As far as the loss goes, it's awful. It is considerably more palatable now that people are (largely) dying by choice. It's the worst for the immunocompromised, and it's absolutely awful that we're not aiming for COVID Zero for them, but with the ready availability of N95 masks they can protect themselves without major compromises in lifesyle (to be clear, it still totally sucks for them).

I would prefer COVID Zero, but that is not happening, even though it's not that hard (in my imaginary ideal world).

Getting on a plane in April. And then immediately going to see my parents. COVID is over.

 

[EVNow]

Getting on a plane in April. And then immediately going to see my parents. COVID is over.

Thankfully the BA.2 didn’t cause another wave.

In my city & county the numbers are finally at pre-omicron levels. We finally took the courage to send our parents back home. We are sending kids in school bus now … and discussing visiting a coffee shop - after 2 full years.

 

[CatB]

Sad statistics … co-incidentally about the same number who were killed in the holocaust.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501288698758844419

11-17M killed in the holocaust, 6M were Jews. Coincidentally 1/2 - 1/3.

 

[wdolson]

When historians write the story of Covid, they will note how many thousands of lives were saved in NZ/Aus and even China …. compared to US.

And life in NZ/Aus has also been much better with few restrictions.

The experience of those three countries tells us if you're lucky enough to not have any land borders and you do strict border control, you can keep a disease like COVID at bay and live normal lives within the bubble. Or if you do have land borders and you go absolutely nuts with restrictions anytime a case is detected, you can also keep case numbers low.

Something not really possible in most countries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500865562632769540

COVID causes brain damage. My former neurofeedback therapist has become an expert in spotting long COVID on a brain map. He's also been developing treatments to treat and often reverse the damage.

11-17M killed in the holocaust, 6M were Jews. Coincidentally 1/2 - 1/3.

The Roma people were almost completely wiped out by the Holocaust. I believe more Roma now live outside of mainland Europe than there because of the Holocaust.

 

[Dave EV]

Thankfully the BA.2 didn’t cause another wave.

There's still time - BA.2 is still taking over from BA.1.

Not generally a fan of Eric Feigl-Ding's posts as I find them alarmist, so keep that in mind:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501232919683104776

 

[scottf200]

I find it remarkable how high the cases in places like UK, France, etc. are still. I don't really understand it, since their vaccination rates are relatively high and I don't get the sense that they had had (previously) substantially fewer infections than the US (maybe they did?). Maybe they have better testing/reporting? They seem to be following the same trajectory (they're way off their peaks), but just at much higher levels. But ascertainment rates can't explain it entirely...can it (France for example has about 5x the per capita case rate)?

Anyway, makes me wonder about future prospects for the US. Depends what is going on. Maybe a ton of people still have it in the US but aren't bothering to get tested.

I've been watching other countries and was surprised how high cases were in well-vaccinated places. Give you pause.

My feeling is that places that were great precautions eventually let them down some and the more contagious variants caught up with them.
S. Korea is a great example IMO.

COVID-19 Weekly Trends by Country - Worldometer

New cases and deaths in the last 7 days vs. the preceding week. Absolute and percentage change, weekly cases and deaths per million people in every country in the world

www.worldometers.info