Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Boosters should NOT be dropping off that quickly. In the vaccine world, this means effectiveness has dropped so much you need to re-formulate.

This study you quoted is not really evidence of the amount of waning in the headline quote. This was the study quoted multiple times earlier here. There are a couple of limitations, quoted by the study, which were highlighted in earlier posts (namely the inclusion of immunocompromised in the numbers). You can review all the recent posts.

Anyway, just disagrees from you, with no apparent strong evidence to back up the claims. You will have to bring your A game to this thread. You can review the limitations of the study you posted and let us know (also Topol has summarized it). You only have to go back a few pages, skipping over the recent feud posts…it’s essentially the last thing of substance posted here.

There are a few more follow ups after this one:

Coronavirus

 

[Doggydogworld]

Story about a 75 year old Covid victim that touches on reasons people go down conspiracy rabbit holes and how it affects families.

Their mom died of COVID. They say conspiracy theories are what really killed her

Stephanie was usually careful about her health and regular vaccinations. But then she got into sharing far-out videos and fringe ideas. When COVID hit, misinformation put her and her husband at risk.

www.npr.org

 

[JRP3]

From that article, making my earlier point:

These people were/are spreading lies and causing illness and death. If they are exposed as charlatans maybe some of their followers will wake up.

But she still thinks about the people who make the paranoia-laced videos that her mother consumed day after day. She understands that something inside her mother drew her to those voices, but Laurie still sees Stephanie mainly as a victim of the grifters and attention-seekers who generate many hours of falsehoods every day to grab money, likes and shares.


"Whoever is creating all this content, is on some level waging a war — here in America — inside of every family," she says. "I think people need to wake up to that."

 

[TespaceX]

This probably isn’t news to any of you, but in a desperate attempt to get us back on topic:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/04/29/covid-deaths-unvaccinated-boosters/

I am hoping “Your local epidemiologist” will chime in on whether/if/how we can take better care of elderly. it sounds like even if vaxed and boosted and double boosted, those of us caring for an elderly parent need to mask, social distance, avoid public gatherings, etc. indefinitely. And that elderly may have to get boosted quarterly?

Still wearing masks everywhere we go for the benefit of my little one that isn’t eligible for a vaccine yet, the grandparents and great grandparents. Good thing my kids school has about 99% mask usage even with the mask mandate gone. (Private school. I’m reading on ND and FB that our public schools have the opposite situation, only about 25% at best with masks.)

 

[PACEMD]

Story about a 75 year old Covid victim that touches on reasons people go down conspiracy rabbit holes and how it affects families.

Their mom died of COVID. They say conspiracy theories are what really killed her

Stephanie was usually careful about her health and regular vaccinations. But then she got into sharing far-out videos and fringe ideas. When COVID hit, misinformation put her and her husband at risk.

www.npr.org

At least we get yet another opportunity to prove to the world that we are a country of Kentucky fried idiots.........and couldn't read our way out of a wet paper baggie..........

 

[dhanson865]

If I've never had covid and my 3rd booster is 6 months old and getting older am I really supposed to go out into the world and not worry about Covid just because 70% of the people in the US have already had it?

It's still going to affect me if I get it. Even if it doesn't kill me or put me in the hospital there are still possible long term effects.

If I'm in the 20% of the people wearing a mask, isn't that right in line with the fact that I've never been infected and shouldn't I do my best to stay that way (masked and uninfected).

I sure don't mind that I stand out in the crowd at this point. I still get my food to go and almost every time I'm the only customer with a mask on at that restaurant. Seems the staff are mostly mask less but at a higher masking ratio than the customers.

 

[jerry33]

If I've never had covid and my 3rd booster is 6 months old and getting older am I really supposed to go out into the world and not worry about Covid just because 70% of the people in the US have already had it?

It's still going to affect me if I get it. Even if it doesn't kill me or put me in the hospital there are still possible long term effects.

If I'm in the 20% of the people wearing a mask, isn't that right in line with the fact that I've never been infected and shouldn't I do my best to stay that way (masked and uninfected).

I sure don't mind that I stand out in the crowd at this point. I still get my food to go and almost every time I'm the only customer with a mask on at that restaurant. Seems the staff are mostly mask less but at a higher masking ratio than the customers.

I got my second booster, no side effects. Silly not to get one. Your chances of becoming infected are lower, and the probability of having a severe case is also lowered. My opinion is that you should still wear your N95 masks and social distance. That's what I do. 70% doesn't mean 70% in your (or my) area, and those who haven't been vaccinated can catch it multiple times. I believe it will be another year before Covid really become endemic (and hopefully each new strain will be less deadly--there is also the possiblity of new vaccines tuned to the newer strains.

 

[bkp_duke]

Time for a fourth Covid vaccine dose? Here's why medical professionals are skeptical

Medical professionals are undecided on whether a fourth dose of the Covid-19 vaccine would benefit the wider population.

www.cnbc.com

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was saying late last week.

Nice to see the chief scientist for the WHO and I agree:

“What we know from immunology is that if you give another booster, you will see a temporary increase in the neutralizing antibodies. But what we’ve also seen is that these neutralizing antibodies will wane quite rapidly,” Swaminathan told CNBC in an interview.

“This happened after the third dose. And it’s happened again after the fourth dose,” she added.

Paul Goepfert, professor of medicine at the University of Alabama, shared that view, saying that “a fourth dose doesn’t really do much of anything ... I’m not sure we need to get out and just jump up and down screaming that everybody needs to get aboard.”

And this is the underlying problem being faced in this scenario:

If the virus “changes so much that you need to change your vaccine composition, then you won’t need another shot,” Swaminathan added. “The challenge of changing the vaccine composition is that you’re always playing catch-up.”

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was saying late last week.

Last week you were referring to the booster, not the second booster, weren’t you? (It was not clear, though a direct reading was that you were referring to a first booster.)

The benefits of a second booster definitely seem more limited, of course, since the added benefit of affinity maturation and breadth of the antigens targeted by both antibodies and the t-cell response has already been realized by the first booster. Likely the second booster is still beneficial and recommended for those at high risk, though, as the article you reference states, simply because it reduces the risk of a dangerous infection for a period of time - which is why it is made available to these groups.

We certainly need an immunogenic and retargeted vaccine - don’t think there is much debate over that.

 

[bkp_duke]

Last week you were referring to the booster, not the second booster, weren’t you? (It was not clear, though a direct reading was that you were referring to a first booster.)

The benefits of a second booster definitely seem more limited, of course, since the added benefit of affinity maturation and breadth of the antigens targeted by both antibodies and the t-cell response has already been realized by the first booster. Likely the second booster is still beneficial and recommended for those at high risk, though, as the article you reference states, simply because it reduces the risk of a dangerous infection for a period of time - which is why it is made available to these groups.

We certainly need an immunogenic and retargeted vaccine - don’t think there is much debate over that.

I was referring to the 2nd booster last week, but the WHO Chief Scientist makes it clear that the Ab generation profile after both is similar. As in the 2nd booster and the first booster only provide about 3 months of increased antibodies.

Interestingly enough, they point out in that article, that risk of death appears to "remain low" regardless of if getting a 2nd booster or not. This is a strong indication of persistent T-cell immunity.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

the first booster only provide about 3 months of increased antibodies.

I don’t think this is a true statement. I believe the evidence shows that the first booster improves the breadth of immunity (for T-cells too!), which is thought to be why the infection rates and severe outcomes have remained persistently low for Omicron infections in boosted individuals (seems to be about 50% efficacy against symptomatic infection) , in spite of Omicron’s partial immune escape.

This is a strong indication of persistent T-cell immunity.

I just can’t square this statement with your prior statements. Yes, it appears there is strong, persistent T-cell immunity. It also appears at this point that the first booster improves this (in addition to antibody levels).

Others (@Doggydogworld don’t want to speak for him though ?) have speculated that perhaps we are just seeing the higher antibody levels provide better protection briefly and that is why we have seen improved outcomes. But I believe the neutralization studies have shown broader protection due to affinity maturation and this likely applies to T-cells too.

So the mental framework of “the booster just boosts antibody levels for a few months which reduces severe outcomes during that period” seems false, based on the evidence and immunology.

Time will tell. Many people are 6-8 months out from their boosters and I guess we’ll see if death rates in the less at-risk populations stay low (we expect at-risk populations to need repeated boosting). That’s really the important question.

And it seems clear to me that if you want to reduce your risk of getting infected, the second booster is desired, even if you are not at risk. Since I plan to travel internationally soon, I’ll likely get my second booster even though I don’t qualify (they don’t require you to attest). I’d prefer to get a retargeted booster but we don’t have results yet and if I boost now I can get another (retargeted hopefully) one in six months before next winter. I’d like to minimize the risk of having a positive test while traveling, stranding me temporarily in another country.

 

[JRP3]

BA.4 and BA.5—like the original Omicron, BA.1—originated in South Africa. Cases are surging there despite the fact that almost all South Africans have been vaccinated or had COVID, Bloomberg reported last week.

BA.4, BA.5, 2 new Omicron variants detected in the U.S., could spark another COVID wave. Research shows these people will fare best

The new spawns of Omicron sweeping South Africa have arrived in the U.S.

www.yahoo.com

 

[EVNow]

Even emergency medical staff are giving up on masks ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520887843266207745

 

[Dave EV]

Even emergency medical staff are giving up on masks ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520887843266207745

That's crazy. You would think that someone working medical would be wearing a mask all the time, especially in NYC where they were hit really hard early on.

The COVID incidence rate must be mile-high among those employees.

 

[bkp_duke]

That's crazy. You would think that someone working medical would be wearing a mask all the time, especially in NYC where they were hit really hard early on.

The COVID incidence rate must be mile-high among those employees.

Actually, COVID incidence is probably significantly lower than the general population. This late in the pandemic, it might be becoming near zero for this group. They have so much exposure, they probably have "super immunity" at this point, and they are aware of it.


Anecdotally, we see this among the "interns" in residency, especially pediatrics. The interns are ALWAYS getting sick early in their internship. They are front line, and they get every runny nose, GI bug, and common virus that their patients have.

By the end of their intern year, however, and through their next 2 years of residency, it's very rare for them to get sick. The constant exposure means they always have ramped-up antibody levels to every common cold, GI bug, etc. that school-age kids carry. It's pretty impressive actually.


Don't worry about the EMTs, they are fine. I doubt that they could even be "silent spreaders", as long as they are properly washing hands, etc. after each patient contact (there is no excuse if they are not) The virus isn't going to cause even an asymptomatic infection in this group.


Sure, if the family asked, they should have probably masked up. But at this point they are probably triply-vaccinated and have been exposed over 100 times to the virus. They are not getting infected.

 

[JRP3]

Technique to handle anti maskers. *edit, the reply tweet. Guess you can't link to only a reply.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521120753680220161

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

BA.4, BA.5, 2 new Omicron variants detected in the U.S., could spark another COVID wave. Research shows these people will fare best

The new spawns of Omicron sweeping South Africa have arrived in the U.S.

www.yahoo.com

And unfortunately it looks like BA.2.12.1, starting to become dominant in the US, and BA.4 and BA.5, evade neutralization from vaccines, and also prior Omicron infection to an extent. It also implies that the BA.1-targeted vaccine (currently under development) is possibly going to be a "miss." (This is in addition to its potential lack of immunogenicity.)

Hopefully severe disease protection holds up (it's somewhat decoupled from neutralization, due to the large number of epitopes which are targeted, but having a ton of infections leads to increase mortality, so infection prevention is important).

Annoying! If they can't figure out how to speed up the vaccine update cycle, and just roll out variant updates without significant efficacy testing (rapid development is one huge benefit of mRNA which we're not using), we're just going to keep going in circles for a while, it seems.

We'll find out very soon whether BA.2.12.1 can actually induce a large surge, the one that BA.2 has failed to do. Seems very possible, if there is actually a decent level of immune escape from prior infection and vaccination as this paper suggests. We'll know in a couple weeks.

It'll be interesting to see how the virulence turns out. I've seen claims that it (BA.2.12.1) could be more virulent than Omicron, but I haven't seen anything definitive yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521479365103546374

 

[madodel]

FDA Warns of Counterfeit Home COVID-19 Test Kits

The phonies “are made to look like authorized tests so the users will think they are the real, FDA-authorized test,” the FDA said in a statement about the fakes. “The FDA is concerned about the risk of false results when people use these unauthorized tests.”​

​

Certain red flags might help you spot the counterfeits, according to the FDA. They include:

• Poor print quality of images or text on the outside box label or in the instructions for use included in the box.
• Missing information on the outside box label for the product, such as the lot number, expiration date or barcode or QR codes.
• Grammatical or spelling errors in product labeling.
• Kit components that do not match the content description. For example, missing instructions for use, missing or unfilled components, different number of components than listed.
• The tradename for product printed on component or box labels differ from the authorized labeling found on the FDA website.
• The box label or printed instructions for use look different from the authorized labeling found on the FDA website.

 

[madodel]

When we arrived at Newark Airport from Germany last Friday, there was a table set after leaving the secure arrival area where free COVID home tests were being handed out. Also Germany is giving free COVID tests (PCR and quick antigen) tests to everyone including non-citizens. Since a negative test result is required to re-enter the US we just went to the closest COVID test booth and got an antigen test and they sent the results to our phone via an emailed link. It would have just showed up in our digital vaccine app except of course we're American so we don't have such a thing like the rest of the world.

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521951742002405379