Coronavirus

[golfcart]

It seems to me that either the vaccination numbers are off or the death numbers are off. Maybe something else I'm not thinking of?

COVID-19 Deaths Among Older Adults During the Delta Surge Were Higher in States with Lower Vaccination Rates | KFF

This analysis looks at the relationship between vaccination rates and COVID-19 deaths for adults 65 and older since the Delta variant took hold, and finds that states with lower vaccination rates among adults ages 65 and older had higher death rates among older adults during this period.

www.kff.org

View attachment 816496

More cases in certain states during delta or waning immunity from early vaccine adoption? Data calculated differently?

It’s not a particularly great fit (does it have R^2?) but Florida and West Virginia are certainly outliers on that graph. It’s also a very small period of time. Excess deaths for all of 2021 would be more compelling in my opinion.

 

[Darreno]

More cases in certain states during delta or waning immunity from early vaccine adoption? Data calculated differently?

It’s not a particularly great fit (does it have R^2?) but Florida and West Virginia are certainly outliers on that graph. It’s also a very small period of time. Excess deaths for all of 2021 would be more compelling in my opinion.

Excess deaths is the key statistic.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Excess deaths is the key statistic.

Here is excess death data (they have from all causes). Looks like West Virginia might be undercounting COVID deaths.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

Anyway I don't have time to start messing around with CSV files.

More cases in certain states during delta or waning immunity from early vaccine adoption? Data calculated differently?

It’s not a particularly great fit (does it have R^2?) but Florida and West Virginia are certainly outliers on that graph. It’s also a very small period of time. Excess deaths for all of 2021 would be more compelling in my opinion.

Yep, a lot of the data is garbage. Generally I think the death data is better though. R=-.59

 

[heltok]

This made me a bit less worried about BA.5:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536805427190562817

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This made me a bit less worried about BA.5:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536805427190562817

Yep, just get boosted again and worry even less! Original antigenic sin is probably already set in at this point, and for whatever reason they're not pushing hard to get the variant booster (which isn't an awesome match anymore but is better than the original) out there. I got a booster to get the clock ticking on the 5-month delay before I can get another. Also I was traveling and wanted to try to minimize chance of picking up an infection, even though 4 doses don't work great against Omicron.

Another thing it looks like we are not going to do that would make sense, tweet thread below. Heaven forbid we actually try to get people protected...it looks like it could be a good idea to do a two-shot series of the new booster to improve breadth against Omicron variants. Of course they'll probably decide to do this next December rather than starting now. Ideally they'd quickly update to the latest Omicron variant BA.4/BA.5 and start pumping that out. But that definitely is not going to happen. It's not clear how much better than would be. At least it would be nice if they were testing it now to make sure it works well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537908527808663552

This is also a great related (and linked) thread, particularly the discussion about type 2 errors which I alluded to here previously:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508557955846729729

 

[scottf200]

Would seem that WY would be related to people being in close contact dealing with the flooding issues.
A little surprising since I probably would have expected many of them already to be less cautious (mask, vaccination, etc). 52% per fully vac U.S. Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Trends

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Would seem that WY would be related to people being in close contact dealing with the flooding issues.

I’d guess coincidence exacerbated by generally poor weather in some parts of the state, driving people indoors. Flooding didn't affect that many people did it? Most of the population is in the eastern part of the state which I don't believe was strongly affected was it?

They have to have a wave at some point - as you point out they have some of the lowest vaccination rates so that doesn't help either. Let it rip!

 

[DrGriz]

I'm guessing that there was nothing to do in Wyo for the last few months and suddenly ~summer came and people showed up. I passed through 6 weeks ago and there was no reason to stop except to charge. Hotel parking lots were empty.

 

[EVMeister]

UK ONS reported over 95% of the UK has had covid now.

Where was this reported? Do you have a link? I've checked through the official ONS literature and the most recent estimation was ~71%, reported back in April. The only reference to "95%" I see is a "95% credible interval" which is something completely different and relates to the statistics themselves.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Quick look around found this for vaccinations:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
For the whole UK (aged 12 and over):

----------------
As for antibodies (from both vaccinations and infections):
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics
"The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 suggests that a person has previously been infected with COVID-19 or vaccinated. Between 23 to 26 May 2022, the percentages of adults estimated to have antibodies above a 179 nanograms per millilitre (ng/ml) level are:
99.3% in England
99.3% in Wales
99.4% in Northern Ireland
99.4% in Scotland"

Couldn't find recent data on estimated total infections.

 

[NikolaACDC]

I quickly summed up the daily estimates from here
How epidemiological models of COVID-19 help us estimate the true number of infections

for the ICL and IHME models' data

​	Cumulative estimated infections of COVID-19 (ICL, mean)​	Cumulative estimated infections of COVID-19 (IHME, mean)​	Cumulative confirmed cases due to COVID-19​
Million cases​	48.4​	57.5​	21.8​
​	​	​	​
Data start date​	2020-01-13​	2020-02-04​	2020-02-05​
Data end date​	2022-03-15​	2022-06-06​	2022-06-18​

With a UK population of ~68 million the IHME model (data only until 6/6) would mean ~84.5% estimated to have been infected.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Quick look around found this for vaccinations:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
For the whole UK (aged 12 and over):
View attachment 818431
----------------
As for antibodies (from both vaccinations and infections):
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics
"The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 suggests that a person has previously been infected with COVID-19 or vaccinated. Between 23 to 26 May 2022, the percentages of adults estimated to have antibodies above a 179 nanograms per millilitre (ng/ml) level are:
99.3% in England
99.3% in Wales
99.4% in Northern Ireland
99.4% in Scotland"

Couldn't find recent data on estimated total infections.

Can vouch for this. Visited UK, did not get COVID. Lol. (Several tests rule out asymptomatic infection.)

Nice to be in a country where people take vaccination seriously. They show extremely little interest in masks, even in places with vulnerable people, so just as well. When in Rome I did not do as the Romans, though I did party it up without a mask on the (well ventilated) dance floor for a bit.

The 70-85% infected number seems pretty reasonable. Plenty of people haven’t had it. Most people I interacted closely with in the UK had not had it. Obviously anecdotal, but that range seems reasonable. And 95% clearly too high - that is basically everyone!

 

[Jeff N]

The 70-85% infected number seems pretty reasonable. Plenty of people haven’t had it. Most people I interacted closely with in the UK had not had it. Obviously anecdotal, but that range seems reasonable. And 95% clearly too high - that is basically everyone!

But in a country with a very high number of confirmed cases, how many of those who think they haven’t had it actually had an asymptomatic case over the past 2+ years?

 

[scottf200]

I’d guess coincidence exacerbated by generally poor weather in some parts of the state, driving people indoors. Flooding didn't affect that many people did it? Most of the population is in the eastern part of the state which I don't believe was strongly affected was it?

They have to have a wave at some point - as you point out they have some of the lowest vaccination rates so that doesn't help either. Let it rip!

I think the previous map with % for each state was probably misleading based on the population size and number of cases. ie. also seeing cases/100K would be more relevant. Probably just a statistics quirk.

As well in emergency situations, people have to prioritize and even cautious people may take risk they normally wouldn't. (mask, crowds, being around people you don't know, etc).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

But in a country with a very high number of confirmed cases, how many of those who think they haven’t had it actually had an asymptomatic case over the past 2+ years?

I think pretty unlikely in many cases, but obviously depends on the circumstances. I think most asymptomatic people probably at least know they had a close contact (we had to get the asymptomatic percentages somehow - these people were getting PCR tested, either for work, or they suspected something). The specific people I talked to in general had no known close contacts for the prior couple years.

For the 70-85% number that presumably is accounting for those asymptomatic cases since it is from the models. I still wonder whether the “40%” number for asymptomatic cases is actually correct, and I wonder if it has gone DOWN after vaccination. Being asymptomatic doesn’t necessarily seem like a completely good thing…though obviously you avoid the major issues of destroyed lungs that way. Things like PASC…who knows how it affects the asymptomatic…. And it seems like vaccination generally leads to more pronounced earlier (but generally mild) symptoms.

I assume asymptomatic positive rates have gone down a lot as testing has shifted more to antigen testing and less PCR, but I guess I’m curious about that too. That seems like a better metric. I am not sure how the immunology works in cases where interferon response clears the virus without having to really build up a proper antibody defense against future infection…is it possible to trigger a PCR positive but never develop an antibody response because your body never really got infected? No idea. And is it common?

 

[Jeff N]

B.4 & B.5 were added (retroactively too).
13% currently (7.6+5.4)

BA.4 (11.4%) and BA.5 (23.5%) now account for 35% of new U.S. Covid cases up from a combined 13% just 2 weeks ago.

Ladies and gentlemen, what we’re seeing speaks for itself. The BA.5 variant is apparently taking over, 'conquering’ if you will, the previous BA.2.X variants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point exactly what the long-term consequences will be. One thing is for certain: there is no stopping it. And I, for one, do not welcome our new viral overlord.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

BA.4 (11.4%) and BA.5 (23.5%) now account for 35% of new U.S. Covid cases up from a combined 13% just 2 weeks ago.

View attachment 819347

Ladies and gentlemen, what we’re seeing speaks for itself. The BA.5 variant is apparently taking over, 'conquering’ if you will, the previous BA.2.X variants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point exactly what the long-term consequences will be. One thing is for certain: there is no stopping it. And I, for one, do not welcome our new viral overlord.

Seems like it is probably going to be fine though. This study, which Eric Topol misinterpreted AFAIK, shows very decent antibody titers to BA.4/BA.5 after a Omicron BA.1 breakthrough. 20x better than after a booster! Will there be reinfections? Yes. Do we need an Omicron booster (two-shot series) ASAP? Yes. It’s quite disruptive to have people out at work sick so boosters are an easy win economically.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539035010727936000

Hopefully we’ll just see this new variant create a longer tail than we’d have had otherwise. And hopefully we’ll actually get boosters available soon. Doesn’t seem like they have to match BA.4/5, though obviously would be better if they did. There are going to be future mutations in any case.

 

[heltok]

A bit OT, but Monkeypox has been declared a Pandemic by WHN:

Monkeypox Press Release — World Health Network

The World Health Network has declared Monkeypox a global pandemic. Due to the ongoing spread of the virus, our team of experts has declared Monkeypox an urgent global health emergency.

www.worldhealthnetwork.global

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – June 22, 2022 – The World Health Network (WHN) today announced that they are declaring the current monkeypox outbreak a pandemic given that there are now 3,417 confirmed Monkeypox cases reported across 58 countries and the outbreak is rapidly expanding across multiple continents. The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action. Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A bit OT, but Monkeypox has been declared a Pandemic by WHN:

Monkeypox Press Release — World Health Network

The World Health Network has declared Monkeypox a global pandemic. Due to the ongoing spread of the virus, our team of experts has declared Monkeypox an urgent global health emergency.

www.worldhealthnetwork.global

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – June 22, 2022 – The World Health Network (WHN) today announced that they are declaring the current monkeypox outbreak a pandemic given that there are now 3,417 confirmed Monkeypox cases reported across 58 countries and the outbreak is rapidly expanding across multiple continents. The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action. Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled.

Seems like they want it to spread enough uncontained that it is a real challenge to stop. It seems a lot easier to stop than COVID! Anyway this is not a surprise after COVID. Sounds like we are ready for the next pandemic, we’ve really learned from COVID. It seems in this day and age at least in developed countries a disease that spreads this incredibly slowly should be easy to stop, if there is any will.

 

[scottf200]

Seems like they want it to spread enough uncontained that it is a real challenge to stop. It seems a lot easier to stop than COVID! Anyway this is not a surprise after COVID. Sounds like we are ready for the next pandemic, we’ve really learned from COVID. It seems in this day and age at least in developed countries a disease that spreads this incredibly slowly should be easy to stop, if there is any will.

And if I understand correctly most of us are not protected via the SmallPox vaccine.