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And if I understand correctly most of us are not protected via the SmallPox vaccine.

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To be fair, it wouldn’t really matter much that we weren’t vaccinated, if we had sufficient stockpile of this vaccine. Ring vaccination works really well since it spreads so incredibly slowly (and you can get vaccinated after exposure I believe). But we likely don’t have enough. It probably makes sense to just design a modern vaccine while modestly boosting supplies of the safest available smallpox vaccine.
 
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A bit OT, but Monkeypox has been declared a Pandemic by WHN:


CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – June 22, 2022 – The World Health Network (WHN) today announced that they are declaring the current monkeypox outbreak a pandemic given that there are now 3,417 confirmed Monkeypox cases reported across 58 countries and the outbreak is rapidly expanding across multiple continents. The outbreak will not stop without concerted global action. Even with death rates much lower than smallpox, unless actions are taken to stop the ongoing spread—actions that can be practically implemented—millions of people will die and many more will become blind and disabled.
Also worth noting that the WHN is in no way affiliated with the WHO. So not sure what significance this has.

Obviously health agencies should be working to track down every case and bring this outbreak to a halt.
 
Also worth noting that the WHN is in no way affiliated with the WHO. So not sure what significance this has.

Obviously health agencies should be working to track down every case and bring this outbreak to a halt.
Indeed. WHN is a group founded in October 2021, with an aim of eliminating COVID-19, opposing a policy of living with it.
 
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Seems like they want it to spread enough uncontained that it is a real challenge to stop. It seems a lot easier to stop than COVID! Anyway this is not a surprise after COVID. Sounds like we are ready for the next pandemic, we’ve really learned from COVID. It seems in this day and age at least in developed countries a disease that spreads this incredibly slowly should be easy to stop, if there is any will.

I did some reading on how monkey pox is spread. It is not airborne, you need to have contact with infected bodily fluids to contract it and good sanitary procedures immediately after contact readily kills the virus before it can infect a person unless the fluids came in contact with an open wound or a mucus membrane.

The health officials are not talking about this, but almost all the people infected thus far outside of Africa are men who have sex with other men indiscriminately (the article I read had no information on cases in the US, but had data on UK and Portuguese cases). They are probably trying to avoid a repeat of the problems from the early AIDS epidemic, but it is an important bit of information if you are not someone who has unprotected sex with random people. Men who have sex with men are more likely to do this than women which is why the cases are almost all men at this point.

Compared to COVID, the various pox diseases are much easier to avoid with adequate precautions. Airborne respiratory viruses are tough to protect against, modern sanitary practices are good enough to protect from most other viruses.
 
To be fair, it wouldn’t really matter much that we weren’t vaccinated, if we had sufficient stockpile of this vaccine. Ring vaccination works really well since it spreads so incredibly slowly (and you can get vaccinated after exposure I believe). But we likely don’t have enough. It probably makes sense to just design a modern vaccine while modestly boosting supplies of the safest available smallpox vaccine.
We don‘t have that big stockpiles of vaccines, many people are not elgible for the vaccine, many of the vaccines we have lots of are pretty nasty with serious side effects for 1-2%, and the live virus in the vaccines can spread to from person to person to people who are vulnerable to it. Read more here:


Imo the main risk of the virus right now are:
1. If you a man having sex with men
2. If the virus get evolutionary pressure to become more contagious(through animals, different modes of transmission)
3. That it eventually reaches more kids who get more severe illness
4. That the illness last very long and the economic cost of having people home for 3-4weeks will be very high
5. Permanent scarring of skin and/or organs, risk of blindness

Maybe in the west it would not be so bad, but many other countries might have hard times. Anyway seems like silly experiment to run.

R0 seems to be >1, if not as high as it seemed in May:
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We don‘t have that big stockpiles of vaccines, many people are not elgible for the vaccine, the vaccines we have many of are pretty nasty with serious side effects for 1-2%, and the live virus in the vaccine can spread to from person to person to people who are vulnerable to it. Read more here:
Exactly. Hence my post.
 

On June 13, a man in New York began to feel ill.

"He starts to experience swollen lymph nodes and rectal discomfort," says epidemiologist Keletso Makofane, who's at Harvard University.

The man suspects he might have monkeypox. He's a scientist, and knowledgeable about the signs and symptoms, Makofane says. So the man goes to his doctor and asks for a monkeypox test. The doctor decides, instead, to test the man for common sexually transmitted diseases. All those come back negative.

"A few days later, the pain worsens," Makofane says. So he goes to the urgent care and again asks for a monkeypox test. This time, the provider prescribes him antibiotics for a bacterial infection.

"The pain becomes so bad, and starts to interfere with his sleep," Makofane says. "So this past Sunday, he goes to the emergency room of a big academic hospital in New York."

At this point the man has a growth inside his rectum, which is a symptom of monkeypox. At the hospital, he sees both an ER doctor and an infectious disease specialist. Again, the man asks for a monkeypox test. But the specialist rebuffs the request and says "a monkeypox test isn't indicated," Makofane says. Instead, the doctor speculates that the man might have colon cancer.

A few days later, he develops skin lesions — another key sign of monkeypox.

A misleading case count​

On the surface, the monkeypox outbreak in the U.S. doesn't look that bad, especially compared with other countries. Since the international epidemic began in May, the U.S. has recorded 201 cases of monkeypox. In contrast, the U.K. has nearly 800 cases. Spain and Germany both have more than 500.

But in the U.S., the official case count is misleading, Makofane and other scientists tell NPR. The outbreak is bigger — perhaps much bigger — than the case count suggests.

For many of the confirmed cases, health officials don't know how the person caught the virus. Those infected haven't traveled or come into contact with another infected person. That means the virus is spreading in some communities and cities, cryptically.

"The fact that we can't reconstruct the transmission chain means that we are likely missing a lot of links in that chain," Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Brown University, says. "And that means that those infected people haven't had the opportunity to receive medicines to help them recover faster and not develop severe symptoms.

"But it also means that they're possibly spreading the virus without knowledge of the fact that they're infected," she adds.

In other words: "We have no concept of the scale of the monkeypox outbreak in the U.S.," says biologist Joseph Osmundson at New York University. "

Why are so few cases getting detected? Testing. In many ways, the U.S. has dropped the ball on monkeypox testing.

Across the nation, public health agencies are running too few tests — way too few, Osmundson says. "State officials are denying people testing because they're using a narrow definition of monkeypox to decide who receives a test. They're testing in only a very restrictive number of cases."

Take for instance the man Makofane knows. Eventually, after seeing more than four doctors, the man finally finds an activist who's trying to expand testing. The activist connects the man with a doctor who orders a test through a private company (that's working to produce a commercial test.) The result: He's positive. He has monkeypox.
 

On June 13, a man in New York began to feel ill.

"He starts to experience swollen lymph nodes and rectal discomfort," says epidemiologist Keletso Makofane, who's at Harvard University.

The man suspects he might have monkeypox. He's a scientist, and knowledgeable about the signs and symptoms, Makofane says. So the man goes to his doctor and asks for a monkeypox test. The doctor decides, instead, to test the man for common sexually transmitted diseases. All those come back negative.

"A few days later, the pain worsens," Makofane says. So he goes to the urgent care and again asks for a monkeypox test. This time, the provider prescribes him antibiotics for a bacterial infection.

"The pain becomes so bad, and starts to interfere with his sleep," Makofane says. "So this past Sunday, he goes to the emergency room of a big academic hospital in New York."

At this point the man has a growth inside his rectum, which is a symptom of monkeypox. At the hospital, he sees both an ER doctor and an infectious disease specialist. Again, the man asks for a monkeypox test. But the specialist rebuffs the request and says "a monkeypox test isn't indicated," Makofane says. Instead, the doctor speculates that the man might have colon cancer.

A few days later, he develops skin lesions — another key sign of monkeypox.

A misleading case count​

On the surface, the monkeypox outbreak in the U.S. doesn't look that bad, especially compared with other countries. Since the international epidemic began in May, the U.S. has recorded 201 cases of monkeypox. In contrast, the U.K. has nearly 800 cases. Spain and Germany both have more than 500.

But in the U.S., the official case count is misleading, Makofane and other scientists tell NPR. The outbreak is bigger — perhaps much bigger — than the case count suggests.

For many of the confirmed cases, health officials don't know how the person caught the virus. Those infected haven't traveled or come into contact with another infected person. That means the virus is spreading in some communities and cities, cryptically.

"The fact that we can't reconstruct the transmission chain means that we are likely missing a lot of links in that chain," Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Brown University, says. "And that means that those infected people haven't had the opportunity to receive medicines to help them recover faster and not develop severe symptoms.

"But it also means that they're possibly spreading the virus without knowledge of the fact that they're infected," she adds.

In other words: "We have no concept of the scale of the monkeypox outbreak in the U.S.," says biologist Joseph Osmundson at New York University. "

Why are so few cases getting detected? Testing. In many ways, the U.S. has dropped the ball on monkeypox testing.

Across the nation, public health agencies are running too few tests — way too few, Osmundson says. "State officials are denying people testing because they're using a narrow definition of monkeypox to decide who receives a test. They're testing in only a very restrictive number of cases."

Take for instance the man Makofane knows. Eventually, after seeing more than four doctors, the man finally finds an activist who's trying to expand testing. The activist connects the man with a doctor who orders a test through a private company (that's working to produce a commercial test.) The result: He's positive. He has monkeypox.

Monekypox will never become anything as widespread as COVID, but it's spread is concerning.

It's basically an "intimate contact" disease, not airborne. I.e. for the most part sexually transmitted right now.

Unlike COVID, there is also no asymptomatic viral shedding with pox viruses.
 
Interesting COVID case that happened to us this past week. It appears negative COVID test is possible even with high likelihood of infection.

Saturday: our kids who are fully vaccinated (as well as us, parents) went to their swimming lesson. Since the lessons are either 2:1 or 1:1, the pool is fairly empty.

Monday: all of us were fine but we scheduled PCR tests for the next day, Tuesday, just in case.

Tuesday: kids woke up with headache, fever, chills. Rapid test negative for everyone. Did PCR test.

Wednesday: kids have a little fever with chills, and lethargic. We start having major body ache, chills, fever, headache, diarrhea. PCR confirmed kids have COVID. Rapid test positive for kids now. Our PCR test and Rapid test negative.

Thursday: kids have low fever and cough. We still have same symptoms as prior day.

Friday: kids just have cough. We have a little headache, slight chill, lethargic, and upset stomach a little. Took another PCR test.

Saturday: we (parents) are just mostly cough and lethargy. Kids have slight cough. Rapid test still positive for kids and negative for parents. PCR test still negative for us.

I can’t possibly imagine our infection was anything but COVID since neither of us went anywhere else since. And, it’s not like we were being super careful around the kids at home.
Alas, our repeated PCR and rapid tests were always negative.
BTW, first time COVID infection has happened to our family during this entire time.
 
Glad you are all doing fine.

Alas, our repeated PCR and rapid tests were always negative.

I’d try a different antigen test, make sure to swab both nostrils thoroughly and also swab the car back of throat and see what happens. Which antigen test were you using? Given the timing of this, if this was this week, you should still be positive antigen.

Did you use an at-home PCR (there is one) or go somewhere? Definitely have heard of false negative on both test types.

Though it is certainly possible you have something else I’d just try a few variations to try to bring out that positive (it would be good information to know that you were positive, so there is some value in fiddling around with the parameters to get a positive).
 
Glad you are all doing fine.



I’d try a different antigen test, make sure to swab both nostrils thoroughly and also swab the car back of throat and see what happens. Which antigen test were you using? Given the timing of this, if this was this week, you should still be positive antigen.

Did you use an at-home PCR (there is one) or go somewhere? Definitely have heard of false negative on both test types.

Though it is certainly possible you have something else I’d just try a few variations to try to bring out that positive (it would be good information to know that you were positive, so there is some value in fiddling around with the parameters to get a positive).

Thanks.

I tried to account for differences in the tests. So, our negative rapid tests were from iHealth at-home, and Qiagen and Lucira RT-LAMP from my wife’s clinic.

The PCR tests were done at two different locations: our usual medical office and the county test site.

All negative so far.
 
Thanks.

I tried to account for differences in the tests. So, our negative rapid tests were from iHealth at-home, and Qiagen and Lucira RT-LAMP from my wife’s clinic.

The PCR tests were done at two different locations: our usual medical office and the county test site.

All negative so far.

I think I would assume positivity and behave that way regardless of the PCR and Antigen tests.
 
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I think I would assume positivity and behave that way regardless of the PCR and Antigen tests.
Oh, we are definitely assuming we have had COVID, for sure. We’ve also been wearing a mask everywhere in public and staying up to date on vaccinations since the beginning.

Just another reminder of how quickly COVID can spread and how important it is to get vaccinated because, like us, you may not be one of the lucky ones to have an asymptomatic COVID infection.

We’re in our 30’s and healthy. I can’t imagine what we would have been like without vaccine. The fever, chills, and body ache were not pleasant. On top of that, the weather here in the beginning of the past week was in the 100’s, yet we were in our beds with a blanket.
 
I’d try a different antigen test, make sure to swab both nostrils thoroughly and also swab the car back of throat and see what happens. Which antigen test were you using?
For those that believe in this testing alternative.

Via: UK Health Security Agency
How to take a combined throat and nose swab for COVID-19
905,594 views May 13, 2020
"This video shows how to use the self-swabbing kit from PHE to test for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). It shows how to take a throat swab and nose swab using a single swab."
 
Even though it seems like this Coronavirus thread is losing a little steam someone should start a new one on Monkeypox.
Let me know if I should leave this thread. Mods have been deleting my recent posts about monkeypox in the other thread, saying that I am not allowed to bump my own thread. I find it very strange that nobody seems to care that the number of cases are doubling every ~10 days. Maybe it will become a pandemic, maybe not, but it seems important enough to at least monitor and discuss. Getting Don’t Look Up vibes from many people around the world. Guess people are tired of pandemics, but I fear pandemics are not tired of us.


WHO didn’t declare it a pandemic today(which was not what the meeting was about), but they are deeply concerned:

WHO Director-General's statement on the report of the Meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the multi-country monkeypox outbreak

Monkeypox outbreak represents evolving threat that needs collective response

25 June 2022


I am deeply concerned by the spread of monkeypox, which has now been identified in more than 50 countries, across five WHO regions, with 3000 cases since early May. The Emergency Committee shared serious concerns about the scale and speed of the current outbreak, noted many unknowns, gaps in current data and prepared a consensus report that reflects differing views amongst the Committee. Overall, in the report, they advised me that at this moment the event does not constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, which is the highest level of alert WHO can issue, but recognized that the convening of the committee itself reflects the increasing concern about the international spread of monkeypox. They expressed their availability to be reconvened as appropriate.
This is clearly an evolving health threat that my colleagues and I in the WHO Secretariat are following extremely closely. It requires our collective attention and coordinated action now to stop the further spread of monkeypox virus using public health measures including surveillance, contact-tracing, isolation and care of patients, and ensuring health tools like vaccines and treatments are available to at-risk populations and shared fairly.
As the Committee pointed out, monkeypox has been circulating in a number of African countries for decades and has been neglected in terms of research, attention and funding This must change not just for monkeypox but for other neglected diseases in low-income countries as the world is reminded yet again that health is an interconnected proposition.
What makes the current outbreak especially concerning is the rapid, continuing spread into new countries and regions and the risk of further, sustained transmission into vulnerable populations including people that are immunocompromised, pregnant women and children.
That is why it is urgent that all Member States, communities and individuals take the recommendations of the Committee for stepped-up surveillance, improved diagnostics, community engagement and risk communication, and the appropriate use of therapeutics, vaccines, and public health measures including contact tracing and isolation.
Since learning about the outbreak of monkeypox on 7 May, WHO has issued clinical guidance and convened hundreds of scientists and researchers to speed up research and development into monkeypox and the potential for new tools to be developed. WHO has also convened meetings of community members and organizations from the LGBTQI+ community so that health information and advice on protection measures are shared effectively around mass gatherings.
WHO calls on Member States to collaborate, share information, and engage with affected communities so that public health safety measures are communicated quickly and effectively.
WHO calls on Member States and manufacturers to work together to achieve the global public health goals of ensuring that affected populations receive medical countermeasures for monkeypox and that these are used through standardized research and data collection for further evaluation of clinical effectiveness of therapeutics and vaccine effectiveness evaluations.
I thank the scientists and public health experts from around the world who participated in the Emergency Committee. We will continue to monitor the situation closely, follow their advice for continuing vigilance and possible reconvening in the coming days and weeks based on the evolution of the outbreak.
 
Hopefully we’ll just see this new variant create a longer tail than we’d have had otherwise.
Sounds like the experts think there will be another wave.

I’ve heard people say that this means you should just get COVID since there is just going to be a summer, and fall, and winter wave (it’s very seasonal). Stop resisting. Seems self-fulfilling though.

I’m not convinced it will lead to a major wave in the US. But already at high levels, so even a bump to 20% higher levels is actually pretty significant. Will be interesting to keep an eye on hospitalizations and see whether ratio changes much.


My precautions are still in place but it seems like masks work really well (especially the vented ones) so I’m no longer worried and do most of the things I used to.