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Cost Comparison (Model S vs. ICE)

Discussion in 'Model S' started by loganss, Mar 8, 2011.

  1. loganss

    loganss Spaceman

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    #1 loganss, Mar 8, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2012
    Hello Everyone,

    I'm new to the forum and I'm hoping to get some help comparing the Model S to a ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car. I've come up with a crude first cut spreadsheet, which I attached to this post, at comparing my current car Mazda 6s to the Tesla Model S, I know they're not in the same league but that's the best I have to work with. I know the maintenance costs of my car.

    I didn't include items that would be similar in both cars. i.e. tire replacement, painting, car damage, wheel alignments, etc.

    I included brakes in my ICE car and not the Tesla since several people have told me you'd rarely use your brakes in a EV car with regenerative braking.

    Also all the numbers I listed for the Tesla are just a guess but what maintenance am I missing? Have there been any publicized report of a lithium ion EV car lasting over 100,000miles and the performance hit has at higher mileage? Not much info on the web about that.

    Thanks for the help.

    UPDATE -- Added V2
    Change log:
    - Added Gas Cost Rate increase %
    - Added Electricity Cost Rate increase %
    - Added Degradation of Range %
    - Included all Roadster service values except A/C refrigerant since it's part of Annual Service according to this roadster maintenance thread.
    - Added ICE air filter costs
    - Added state tax credit EV

    UPDATE -- Added V3
    Change log:
    - Reformatted calculations to facilitate the generation of a Total Cost Of Ownership plot
    - Added loan calculations for ICE and EV vehicles
    - Color coded cells that can be altered
    - Applied same degradation of EV Range rate to kWh capacity of the battery
    - Changed the calculation of rotor/brake pad replacement on the EV car to be at a frequency 2.25 times that of the ICE car due to regen braking

    UPDATE -- Added Link to V4
    Google Drive Link
    (The sheet is View Only so you'll need to save a copy to your own Drive inorder to edit numbers)

    Change Log
    - Converted to Google Drive
    - Added basic depreciation calculation that rolls into the TCO calculations
    - Added an affordability sheet
    - Assume EPA fuel economy for entire life and decoupled range degradation calcs from fuel economy
    - Added logic to auto populate certain values (Range, Fuel Economy) based on the Tesla Model S battery pack chosen
    - Zeroed out Tesla maintenance items since they are covered under the Annual Tune-up Cost
    - Misc equation fixes
     

    Attached Files:

  2. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    With the Roadster I would put brake replacement at 1/2 of a non-regen car. I might make that a 1/3 for a sedan.
     
  3. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    Nope, no air filters. There's a number of little occasional things - think 30k or 60k service, like timing belts or transmission fluids - that aren't there. When doing the last service before we got rid of the Subie, the dealer had one of those 'fluids in your car' displays on the wall (I think there were around 12). "Don't have that one, don't have that one..."
     
  4. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    #4 richkae, Mar 8, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2011
    Where are you that electricity is 15 cents / kWhr?
    Do you expect the transmission to last 200,000 miles? I'm no expert but that seems very unlikely.

    If you are trying to look at 14 years out, you have to factor in increasing energy costs.
    Nobody knows what they will do. I am confident that the only thing that brings them down is another recession.
    Over the last 6 years U.S. average gasoline is up 11% per year.
    Over the last 10 year span it went up about 9% per year.
    Over the last 20 years it has gone up about 6% per year.
    I believe the electricity rates in my area have gone up 4% per year over the last 5 years.
    Over the last 11 years they have gone up about 3% per year.

    If you think gasoline is only going to go up 8% per year over the next 14 years, you are looking at $10 per gallon by the end and an average of near $7 a gallon gas over that span.

    I think you should calculate several scenarios and compare.
    Sample scenarios:
    Scenario 1:
    Gasoline cost grows 6% per year, electricity grows 3% per year.
    Scenario 2:
    Gasoline grows 7% per year, electricity grows 4% per year.
    Scenario 3:
    Gasoline grows 8% per year, electricity 5% per year
    Scenario 4:
    Gasoline grows at 10% per year, electricity 5% per year
    Scenario 5:
    Gasoline grows at 12% per year, electricity at 6% per year
     
  5. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    By the way. If I take your existing spreadsheet:
    Start with $0.103 per kWh and $3.40 per gallon ( my prices ), factor 6.5% increase per year for both of those over 14 years gets me $0.175 per kWh and $5.80 / gallon average over the 14 years and the Mazda has a higher number than the Model S.
    Assume any higher energy price inflation and the Model S runs away with it.
     
  6. zack

    zack Member

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    Gasoline has gone up 10% around here in the last couple of weeks! We could easily see another recession if gas doubles by June (as some are predicting) as a result of the Mideast messes.
     
  7. Eberhard

    Eberhard #421 Model S #S32

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    The only solution is: produce your own electricity with solar power. No more increase in cost. PV solar panels will still produce 50% power after 100 years. With the old battery pack as longterm storage, you can easily go off grid.
     
  8. loganss

    loganss Spaceman

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    #8 loganss, Mar 9, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2011
    The Roadster doesn't have any air filters? Not even cabin air filters?

    @vfx: You're right I'll include some cost for brakes.

    @richkae: Yeah I should try and project out using existing trends to see what the average energy costs could be but I pulled this spreadsheet together in a couple hours in one day. Basically I was being lazy and didn't want to look up trends yet. I'll put that in my next version.

    My electricity is $0.10/kWh but I rolled in all the fees into the electricity energy costs, which resulted in the $0.15/kwh number.

    I was more concerned in the maintenance items I was missing from an electric car since I'm just learning about them.

    And yes a transmission can last 200000 miles on an ICE car if it's properly taken car of. I've had 3 cars and none of them have had transmission failures. Two were manual but the auto i had with over 160,000miles had no transmission issues.

    @Eberhard: That would be awesome but it'd take a chunk of money for me to make that happen that I don't have. Possibly after my Model S.


    So for the Roadster does the Annual service mean they will replace fluids or is it just a check and there will be an additional charge when fluids need replacing (i.e. transmission, brake, coolant)?
     
  9. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    The Roadster must have a cabin air filter. No other part of the car "consumes" air.
    The Roadster/Model S have a transaxle that is probably about as complex as an ICE differential ( no shifting, just a reduction gear ). Whatever maintenance that needs in an ICE car, they need.
    The brake fluid will need bleeding or replacing mostly because of age.
    The battery coolant will need replacing due to age, but remember that it is treated gently ( exposed to far smaller temperature variations ) when compared to ICE coolant.

    The current cost of electricity is so low compared to gasoline that even if energy cost doubles or triples it remains a small component of the other overall cost, but gasoline dominates.
     
  10. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    Even if it does (Google search... huh, who knew?), I don't remember ever having paid for a replacement cabin air filter - those recommendations for replacing it every 12k miles seem quite nuts. Looks like about $15 maybe? Every 3 years / 30k miles seems a more reasonable replacement rate. Could be it's so cheap that like wiper blades the cost gets rolled into the service amount.
     
  11. loganss

    loganss Spaceman

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    Hmm looks like I should include the air filters to the ICE costs then if there is no filter replacements for the Roadster. When google searching tesla roadster cabin air filter this article shows up lol.

    TeslaRoadster_servicef.jpg

    So should I include every single one of the maintenance items listed in the image above? (with the assumption the Model S maintenance will be similar)

    The description of the Annual service isn't the clearest. If they are "servicing" the components listed in the Annual Service maintenance does that mean you also have to pay more to replace fluids? For example, a tesla owner does the annual service do they even have to get the Coolant service?
     
  12. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

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    That's a great idea but most people are afraid of the up front cost for the PV panels and install.
     
  13. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    The current payback is about 4 years, so the upfront cost should not be that scary compared to your monthly power bills.
     
  14. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    The current payback for me is still about 20 years !!!
     
  15. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    You can buy Sharp ND224 panels now for about $2 per watt, plus inverter, some pipe, wire, conduit and little time, and you're in business. $25000 should buy a 7.5 KW system. At my rate that is about $500 per month off of the power bill!

    As smart meters become more prevalent, billing you at a higher rate during the day and peak periods, the solar option will give you an even earlier payback.
     
  16. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    You pay over $500 a month???
     
  17. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    Yes, First solar system cut it in Half! It was over 1000 per month. 3 acres of grapes to water, big house and lots of lighting. 3 freezers as I hunt and fish a lot, pool and pumps, water well and pressure pumps, cooled wine cellar. They all add up. Once I finish this last system I should be Net Zero.
     
  18. donauker

    donauker Member

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    Wow! You must live in an area with an incredible amount of sunshine and with extremely high electric rates!

    7.5 kW system here in PA will produce an average of $92 a month
     
  19. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    #19 Lloyd, Mar 10, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2011
    Yes our rates are high. They should not be as we live next door to Diablo Nuclear Power. My existing 7.5 kw system produced 55Kwh today. It was mostly sunny with some fog in the am early. Our rates vary from 12 cents to 44 cents per kwh! so today in winter my system produced about $18.00 of power.

    http://www.pge.com/tariffs/tm2/pdf/ELEC_SCHEDS_A-6.pdf
     
  20. donauker

    donauker Member

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    My 16.2 kW system could produce around 105 kWh a day this time of year, but on a lousy day like today it produced a mere 7.6 kWh @ 11 cent per for a grand total of 84 cents
     

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