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Cost of ownership of buying Model 3 vs keeping my M235i.

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Oyinko, Aug 4, 2018.

  1. Oyinko

    Oyinko Member

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    Hi!

    I'm on the fence for pulling the trigger on a Model 3 (AWD or Performance). To fully convince myself (and my wife :D), I have done some calculations regarding cost of ownership of buying a Model 3 vs keeping my M235i.

    I bought my M235i in 2014 for 52K MSRP (paid cash). I got an offer last month for 30K. I anticipate its cost of ownership over the next 3 years to be about $22650 (including additional depreciation and maintenance). If I compare the cost of ownership of a Model 3 AWD ($19280) and Model 3 PD ($23920), the numbers are very close.

    You can see the breakdown of my calculation in this spreadsheet. I would appreciate any feedback you might have.

    Thanks!
     
  2. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    What did you use for the basis of the depreciation on the Model 3s? Is that just a percentage that sounds right? Historical for Teslas? Historical for cars in general?

    Also, I'm not sure how you got to 18K for the M235i? If you are estimating it'll be worth 18K in 3 years shouldn't you be starting at the 30K (tax included) right now, rather than the initial purchase price?
     
  3. KCapital

    KCapital Member

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    #3 KCapital, Aug 4, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2018
    You are way off on your depreciation calculations. In three years with SR/AWD out and available, price/markup for LR and Premium won't be the same. You should easily have 50% depreciation for 12Kmiles/year usage as in long runTesla's (at least Model S/X) prices drop YoY for fully loaded models.

    Also - Add this list to start the reall computation:

    Ownership Duration
    Price
    Midlife crisis cost (wraps, ceramics, chrome delete etc)
    Sales Tax (Varies by state)
    Car Registration
    Tax Break/Incentive
    Net Price
    Interest Rate (on Loan)
    Loan Period
    Miles Driven
    Monthly Payment
    Total Interest Paid
    Wall Charger + Install Cost
    Yearly Service
    Tire Replacement (over ownership duration)
    Additional Warranty
    Real Electric/Fuel Cost
    Car Insurance
    Resale Value
    Total Miles Driven
    Total Cost of Ownership
    Cost/Mile
    Monthly Cost
     
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  4. KCapital

    KCapital Member

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    #4 KCapital, Aug 4, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2018
    Here is a sample, your mileage my vary based on electricity rate, car insurance, actual resale value etc (Note: electricity is cheaper in NJ):

    upload_2018-8-4_12-42-10.png
     

    Attached Files:

  5. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    The reality of car buying is people like to think it comes down to numbers when the reality is it usually comes down to emotion of one kind or another.

    Go test drive a Performance Model 3, if you like it better as well as doing something good for the planet buy it.
     
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  6. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    50% depreciation is above average for cars in general, no? An average depreciation for a 60K car over 6 years is more along the lines of 41K rather than the 45K you're using here. This seems off. Your electricity seems well off, too. For 20K miles you're looking more at 5000kWh. What rates are you using there? I can't speak to insurance rates, but mine has been quoted below that.

    The tire changes seems high, too. For a total of 120K miles, if you're dropping $1000 per change for top line tires, should should be getting a lot more miles out of them than that. Originals + 2 changes seems a lot more in line.
     
  7. Gavyne

    Gavyne Member

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    Only thing I see is your cost of gas would actually be higher than what you've calculated, if assuming we're calculating the average 12,000 miles per year being driven as data shows for average Americans. Your car at the moment gets 25 combined mpg, at the current gas price, you're looking at roughly $5k the next 3 years on gasoline. So your savings are higher for energy cost.

    Assuming you charge your new Model 3 at home, electricity cost in San Francisco is averaging 15 cents per kilowatt hour. That comes out to roughly $1300 the next 3 years on charging, which you correctly calculated.

    I think for you the upgrade is a no brainer. Your BMW is 4 years old, it isn't getting any better. Both cars go roughly the same range per "tank". But explain to your wife that with Model 3, you'll wake up to a full tank of gas every morning. So unless you drive over 300 miles a day, you will have zero range anxiety issues that most ICE car owners have when thinking about switching to EV. And if you ever need to charge on the road, there are plenty of superchargers around.

    -The acceleration and drive is going to feel much better all around with the Model 3 AWD or Performance.
    -You're getting better tech, with over the air updates that'll make your car better and better.
    -All wheel drive is going to perform better in weather and harsh road conditions.
    -Model 3 is one of the safest cars engineered, with amazing crash ratings.
    -Zero emissions, don't forget the healthcare cost and effects of breathing in gasoline fumes. Think about the children.

    Bottom line is you'll love how the car looks, drives, and feels. It's a no brainer upgrade, even if you don't factor in the cost of ownership.
     
  8. Oyinko

    Oyinko Member

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    It's a average % based on many researches and readings done online. Also, I have managed to get an offer at 58% of MSRP for my M235i after 4 years of ownership and 28K miles. My assumptions will be that I would at least manage to get 65% after 3 years.

    For my M235i, I'm looking at cost of ownership over the next 3 years. I could sell it now for 30K (I bought it in 2014 new for 52K MSRP) but I if I decide to keep it and put another 15-20k miles in 3 years, my guess is I would sell it for about 18K.
     
  9. Oyinko

    Oyinko Member

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    Thanks for your inputs!

    I have a hard time to believe it will drop by 50% over 3 years for a well maintained car. I got an offer for 58% of MSRP for my M235i after 4 years of ownership and it's a very difficult car to sell.
     
  10. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    Yeah, so you should use the $30K there instead of the $52K+taxes, because you are comparing your situation going forward with the used vehicle as opposed to some hypothetical new 235i you'd be purchasing now.

    What is the warranty situation with your 235i?
     
  11. Oyinko

    Oyinko Member

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    Thanks! That's very useful. I'm trying to compare what would be different from keeping the M235i and buying the Model 3. The bulk will come from depreciation, gas/charging and maintenance cost. I plan to pay the car cash so no interest charges. Title & registrations will be about the same.
     
  12. KCapital

    KCapital Member

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    Tire cost is inclusive of buying, install, balance. It is in the ballpark with change at every 30-40K mileage mark.

    My calculations on electricity usage are here: Approx. $7200 over 6 years (YMMV)

    upload_2018-8-4_13-32-47.png
     
  13. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    A $1000 tire set, installed, should be getting you a lot more miles than that (w/warranty).
     
  14. Oyinko

    Oyinko Member

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    Thanks for the inputs!

    For cost of gas, I have calculated 6000 miles per year at 25mpg and $4 per gallon (I use premium 91).

    For charging, electricity cost is about 0.30 per kilowatt because I use clean power with 100% renewable.

    I'm definitively with you on all the other points!
     
  15. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    This is weirdly arranged with a lot of extraneous math. :p

    Also is quite out of line with what the original poster's situation, in multiple ways. SF "real miles" is more like 47 miles/kWh (also in NJ, outside of winter, your average for the whole year seems quite off). Electricity rate isn't like that, at all, in SF either.
     
  16. Oyinko

    Oyinko Member

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    You are right, makes sense! I corrected the spreadsheet. My M235i is out of warranty since April 2018. I have factored about $800 of reparation cost if I'm lucky :)
     
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  17. KCapital

    KCapital Member

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    My assumption is that it will cost you with rebate/discount about $200/tire + tax + install (Tesla charged me $40/tire) = $250/tire if not more. For reference My Model S tire from Tesla is 240 + 50 install = 290/tire. You will not get more than 30K-40K miles out of them.

    upload_2018-8-4_13-41-30.png
     
  18. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    #18 ℬête Noire, Aug 4, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2018
    That's very much the wildcard in your calculations. It kinda comes down to the risk you want to live with there. Could be cheaper, could be more. I don't know much about BMW 2-series to say one way or the other on that number but it at least seems sane.
     
  19. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    Don't have my notes handy but I've been quoted less than $1000 for installed set with 50,000 mile warranty tires (priced it out, ahead). Plus the originals, that should easily be $2000 to get you 6 years and 120k miles.

    EDIT: AWD is a lot better wear than RWD on Teslas.
     
  20. KCapital

    KCapital Member

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    It is simple formula: power (kwh) = amp x volt / 1000

    Rated range of 44 miles charge/hour at 11.5kwh matches what tesla has for Model 3 at 60Amp breaker with max output of 48amp.
    Home Charging Installation

    To get 47miles/Kwh you have to be on some serious never-ending downhill drive. As that basically translates to 47 miles/kwh x 75Kw battery = 3,525 miles on a single fully charged battery. That is absurd. (we wish :p)
     

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