Cost of Tesla Solar Roof Tiles

[Green Pete]

Pete:
Some roofs have their panels mounted on racks tilted to the optimum angle, but the far-cheaper "right on the roof" variety also exists in many, many places.

And rightly so, if I can describe the logic correctly - these numbers are for illustrative purposes only. If I need ten panels' worth of PV output, and if it is 30% more expensive to tilt-rack a set of 10 panels, and I have room on my roof to install 13 panels....then, ta da! - I'm ambivalent as to which route to go.

Now, some real-world experience. One of my three sets of panels in Alaska is ground-mounted (another is tower mounted; the third roof-mounted). As we're at 63ºN lat, our mid-summer incident angle is really steep, and our mid-winter incident angle is really, really steep! I can alter the panels' angle - either every single day or, less insanely, twice a year (say, at the equinoces). HOWEVER....what we have found by experimentation is that the day-long kWh intake, at mid-summer, is indistinguishable whether at "perfect mid-summer" or "dead mid-winter". And, since it's a pain-in-the-neck really kludgy operation to move the panels (I need use my excavator with bucket at full extension), several years ago I abandoned the process and just leave them at their very steepest mid-winter optimum all year round.

I have surmised that one of the reasons this works for me - but might not at 45º or 40º or 35º or 30º latitude is because of the crazy round-the-heavens track that our summer sun follows. That's another situation we have to contend with. Might be, maybe not (It's also partly the reason that our tower-mounted small array - just four panels - is on a tracker. But that's a different subject).

Someone with more knowledge than me is going to have to step in but I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that maximizing effiency in Alaska is a cost-install outlier. Adding 30% to the cost of even 1 panel just to add a rack seems beyond highway robbery.

 

[Green Pete]

Was on the phone with solar city yesterday. We had a PPA agreement ready for installation when the solar roof was announced. I told them we wanted to wait on the conventional solar panels until we got more information about the solar roof, as our current asphalt roof it 22 years old and will likely need replacement in the near future.

The woman on the phone gave me an admittedly wild ball park figure. She said, take the cost of a conventional solar installation and add 120% of the cost of a conventional roof. So, that puts us up in the 40-50k range, which is way, way more than just a roof replacement.

Of course, this would be a fantastic system if its longevity is as promised. But well out of our price range for now.

When you had this conversation were there more concrete details about what the expected costs of a conventional roof might be? A small installer might charge 250/square (square = 100 square ft). Whereas I worked briefly for a nationally recognized roofing company as a salesman (I got into it thinking it was something quite different than what it turned out to be) and our prices ranged from a list price of 451 per square to 361 a square after "discounts" (which were nothing more than shady car salesman price negotiations).

120% of a roof quoted at 250/square compared to 120% of a roof quoted at 450/square (yes, there are many people paying double for a roof for no reason other than shady sales tactics) is a massive difference.

If you private message me your address and tell me the pitch of your roof I could estimate what a fair price for your roof should be (plenty of apps now using google earth that can be used to estimate roof cost)

Or, if you have a simple A-line roof with no outcroppings or anything just download measuremap from the app store, map out the square footage of your roof multiply that by ~1.2 to account for the fact that your roofing footage is not flat area as it would be perceived by arial photography, divide by 100 to get # of square, multiply by 450 (for an overpriced roof) or multiply by 250 (for a "chuck and a truck" roof), add 400 bucks for removal of old roof.

None of that includes re-decking cost, if your roof is leaking its likely you'll need new wood.

Call them back with that knowledge and let us know based on that.

 

[msnow]

I find it wildly unlikely that a salesperson has any information right now about install cost of the system. That was likely (an unapproved by corporate) attempt to get you to buy now.

I never said I asked him about cost. He was clear that they wouldn't know until late 2017. My question was about whether anyone else was told by Solar City about availability.

 

[RDoc]

My question on these is what is the output vs age of the solar panels? The tiles themselves may have a 50+ year lifetime, but the solar cells certainly will have much lower output after 20 years or so.

 

[Electroman]

What is the point of announcing a product with lots of showmanship when Tesla can't really say when it will be available and what the cost is, anytime in the near future. Why not wait till those details are known?

 

[msnow]

What is the point of announcing a product with lots of showmanship when Tesla can't really say when it will be available and what the cost is, anytime in the near future. Why not wait till those details are known?

I took it as an "investor relations" presentation. It was all staged at on the old "Desperate Housewives" Hollywood set and 30 days before the shareholder acquisition votes are counted.

 

[AudubonB]

....I was using "30%" as a stand-in. I've no idea what racks are, but really, whether it's Uni-strut "B"-line or some other system, the cost of them plus the additional labor involved does add up! If that additional cost is more than the cost of the additional panels needed when laid flat on the roof, then one should proceed with the latter.

RDoc: PV collector degradation appears to be significantly less than commonly is believed.

 

[30seconds]

My question on these is what is the output vs age of the solar panels? The tiles themselves may have a 50+ year lifetime, but the solar cells certainly will have much lower output after 20 years or so.

Why would this be the case? Seems that there now are already plenty of examples of solar panels lasting 20 years+. I'm guessing latest technologies will last longer.

 

[Green Pete]

What is the point of announcing a product with lots of showmanship when Tesla can't really say when it will be available and what the cost is, anytime in the near future. Why not wait till those details are known?

Getting a merger to pass without revealing the secret sauce before the product is ready for market

 

[brucet999]

That is really the big question. At least in this part of the country, 99% of houses have asphalt shingles. I don't see how it's possible for the Tesla solar roof to cost the same (even after energy savings) as asphalt shingles. So how much more it costs than this type of "normal" roof will really be determinative for many people.

I am sure that the "normal" roof materials would be slate or some form of tile; terra cotta or concrete. Both are good for 50 years or more. Asphalt composition or cedar shingles might be comparable in cost if you factor in the cost of having to re-roof at least once and replace ridge cap twice.

 

[Green Pete]

I am sure that the "normal" roof materials would be slate or some form of tile; terra cotta or concrete. Both are good for 50 years or more. Asphalt composition or cedar shingles might be comparable in cost if you factor in the cost of having to re-roof at least once and replace ridge cap twice.

Honestly. I think it all comes down to installation costs. I used to sell roofing and the more and more I dive into this from a materials perspective I'm realizing they've gotten material cost to be close to asphalt roof levels (close enough that the difference is now between getting robbed by a shitting sales guy selling asphalt or getting a good roof for the same price)(this happens WAY more often than people realize). The big question is the cost of labor at install. And we have ZERO answers on that.

 

[bonaire]

Honestly. I think it all comes down to installation costs. I used to sell roofing and the more and more I dive into this from a materials perspective I'm realizing they've gotten material cost to be close to asphalt roof levels (close enough that the difference is now between getting robbed by a shitting sales guy selling asphalt or getting a good roof for the same price)(this happens WAY more often than people realize). The big question is the cost of labor at install. And we have ZERO answers on that.

I had a roof done a few years ago. From being ripped off by the "big name" in town - with initial quote of $19k and then "talked down to $15k" and that removed the commission from the original young sales guy - to a mid-level roofer installing the same roofing (GAF Lifetime Architectural) on the same roof for $10.5k. Labor turned out to be a crew from Brazil who worked their butts off and got it done in a day - but were using good skills to bang it out. No problems since. If it were local guys, I bet it would have been two days and double the input costs for the labor. Labor and overhead are apparently "big" in the roofing business. The shingles are just a pawn in the game. Now, if each solar shingle is to work and if they are installed with wiring "in series" and they don't want warranty labor call backs, installing a roof is going to take a lot more time and require precise wire management. That's not muscle, that is technical. The labor costs, permitting (if even allowed in some counties and townships - who may not write permits for electrical shingles) and then fire-ordinance verification will make an electrical roof a bit pricey. This is a new market with new product. Calling out expected sales numbers on it is very pre-mature.

The quote by Musk of "the roof will cost about the same as a standard roof plus the electricity" - doesn't he realize that in some states, electricity is .11/kWh and in other states can be up to .20/kWh and even higher in high TOU rate plan areas like CA? It's not that easy to price and will do better in areas like Hawaii and California than Ohio and West Virginia. The target market is the suburbs of wealth who may already be on board with Model S in the garage. I don't think the target market are those wanting Free Solar from Solar City today (under PPA with annual upward adjusted price). Certainly these roofs will not be priced well enough to offer "free roof". And then there's the issue of the looming decline in net-metering to be replaced by gross metering or none at all, eventually. (yeah yeah, buy batteries too...will customers be explained the details about round trip efficiency losses of the powerwall?)

 

[electracity]

My question on these is what is the output vs age of the solar panels? The tiles themselves may have a 50+ year lifetime, but the solar cells certainly will have much lower output after 20 years or so.

The solar cells will be down perhaps 20% in twenty years. At the same time electrification will probably increase substantially. A typical more expensive house may be all EV and the water heater switched from gas to heat pump.

So will a gen 1 Tesla solar roof be desirable and working reliably after 20 years? Probably not. But with the price curve of renewables and batteries perhaps grid electricity will be cheap in 20 years.

Residential energy today may be at the point of computers in 1996. 20 years ago was windows 3.1 on an IBM PC with an AOL account charged by the hour.

 

[brucet999]

Honestly. I think it all comes down to installation costs. I used to sell roofing and the more and more I dive into this from a materials perspective I'm realizing they've gotten material cost to be close to asphalt roof levels (close enough that the difference is now between getting robbed by a shitting sales guy selling asphalt or getting a good roof for the same price)(this happens WAY more often than people realize). The big question is the cost of labor at install. And we have ZERO answers on that.

From what I find, asphalt shingles run around $90 per square. There is no way solar tiles could be remotely comparable to asphalt shingle cost. Moreover, installation labor for tile of any sort of tile is much higher than for asphalt shingles, given that there are at least three times as many tiles to place as asphalt per square, tiles have to be hand nailed, not stapled, and tiles must be cut with a diamond saw instead of a utility knife. Solar tiles will have additional labor costs for electrical connections and testing.

Elon's comparable cost statement had to be vs concrete tile, clay tile and genuine slate. Concrete tile runs from $350 to $500per square, clay tile $700 to $1000 per square and slate $1,000 to $4,000 per square, so material costs alone is likely to be at least 4 times, probably 12 times as much as asphalt.

 

[bonaire]

The solar cells will be down perhaps 20% in twenty years. At the same time electrification will probably increase substantially. A typical more expensive house may be all EV and the water heater switched from gas to heat pump.

So will a gen 1 Tesla solar roof be desirable and working reliably after 20 years? Probably not. But with the price curve of renewables and batteries perhaps grid electricity will be cheap in 20 years.

Residential energy today may be at the point of computers in 1996. 20 years ago was windows 3.1 on an IBM PC with an AOL account charged by the hour.

My desktop PC case is the same size as an Intel 386 1-core system I used in early 1992.
The difference is in the "secret sauce" needed to etch internal CPU circuits and memory chips, hard drives and SSDs today.
From the outside, the case is the same size.
On the inside, it is an enormous difference.

When we compare PCs of yesteryear to today, we must think "the chemistry inside". How will a roof shingle be any more than 50% more efficient in 30 years than today? If it were to become 400% more efficient than today it would be effectively 100% totally efficient - taking all energy from the 2-D surface area into electricity. I doubt that will happen. We may see roofs reaching 20-30% more efficient unless the physical embodyment of solar can go 3-dimensional in a matrix of 3-D absorption and that could help get closer to 100% total efficiency but it's improbable. Solar rays come in via straight lines. Other than curved collectors (like concentrators) - roofs will be roofs.

I'd skip the "Moore's Law" type analogies for solar anything. It is what it is - a totally different chemistry environment than PCs/Computers.

Our energy future should be entirely based on a collective agreement for one thing. Conservation.

 

[brucet999]

Consumers reports estimates cost of solar roof.

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

I don't get how they come up with asphalt shingles costing more than clay tile, though. Clay tile costs a lot more per square than asphalt and is more labor intensive to install.

 

[Green Pete]

From what I find, asphalt shingles run around $90 per square. There is no way solar tiles could be remotely comparable to asphalt shingle cost. Moreover, installation labor for tile of any sort of tile is much higher than for asphalt shingles, (1)given that there are at least three times as many tiles to place as asphalt per square, (2)tiles have to be hand nailed, not stapled, and tiles must be cut with a diamond saw instead of a utility knife. (3)Solar tiles will have additional labor costs for electrical connections and testing.

Elon's comparable cost statement had to be vs concrete tile, clay tile and genuine slate. Concrete tile runs from $350 to $500 per square, (4)clay tile $700 to $1000 per square and slate $1,000 to $4,000 per square, so material costs alone is likely to be at least 4 times, probably 12 times as much as asphalt.

1.Why 3 times as many tiles? Most of those systems looks to have larger, in some cases, much larger tiles, implying fewer tiles per square.

2.Elon said this would snap into a skeletal backbone, like screwing in a lightbulb, arguable easier than nailing or stapling.

3. If the roofers are all solar city employees and the system is designed to be easy to set up quickly and easily this might not be added time overall.

4. Automotive glass is like $166 per square if you get it outsourced. And these are much smaller (cheaper mass produce) and seem to be produced in house.

 

[Green Pete]

Consumers reports estimates cost of solar roof.

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

I don't get how they come up with asphalt shingles costing more than clay tile, though. Clay tile costs a lot more per square than asphalt and is more labor intensive to install.

The whole article seems totally wrong to me. But I'm guessing the fundamental basis for the assumption they are making there is based of total refoofing cost and places where Tuscan tile is installed have less regulations about things like Ice and water shield and underlayment.

 

[brucet999]

1.Why 3 times as many tiles? Most of those systems looks to have larger, in some cases, much larger tiles, implying fewer tiles per square.

2.Elon said this would snap into a skeletal backbone, like screwing in a lightbulb, arguable easier than nailing or stapling.

3. If the roofers are all solar city employees and the system is designed to be easy to set up quickly and easily this might not be added time overall.

4. Automotive glass is like $166 per square if you get it outsourced. And these are much smaller (cheaper mass produce) and seem to be produced in house.

Asphalt shingles come in pieces about 3 feet wide. Tiles are about 1 foot wide, hence three times as many pieces to handle, place and fasten. The reveal of terra cotta tiles is greater than for asphalt shingles, so the number of pieces may be only twice as many as asphalt.

The tiles' electrical connections might snap into a "skeletal backbone" but the tiles clearly have nail holes at the top edges, just like every other roof tile used in the US. In Europe tiles have for centuries been set on horizontal skipped sheathing boards with lugs on the back of the upper edge of the tiles hanging over the upper edge of the sheathing boards. The weight of overlapping tiles kept them secure and the steepness of roof styles there make wind-lifting less of a problem. Lugged tiles in the US are typically placed over furring strips nailed to the plywood sheathing of roofs built in the past 20 or 30 years. Before that time, skipped sheathing was common even for shingled roofs in the US.

 

[brucet999]

The whole article seems totally wrong to me. But I'm guessing the fundamental basis for the assumption they are making there is based of total refoofing cost and places where Tuscan tile is installed have less regulations about things like Ice and water shield and underlayment.

Ice and water shield regulations would be the same for any roof material, so should not figure into the comparisons.

CR says they got estimates from Tile Roofing Institute, Slate Roofers Association, and Remodeling 2016 Cost vs. Value Report.