Cost to own Model 3 AWD vs Subaru Outback

[Palmtree]

My 2008 Prius is approaching 300,000 miles and it is using oil like crazy (I have to add a quart between 5k mile oil changes). It's been a great, reliable car but I'm not sure how much longer I can keep it going. We live in rural Missouri and have a long steep gravel driveway that requires AWD any time it snows more than an inch. We have given away all 3 of our AWD cars to the kids as they have gone away to college leaving my wife and me with a chevy volt and a prius. The volt only has about 50k miles on it, so the old prius will need to be replaced soon with something than can get up the driveway in the winter.
We don't have any debt other than still owing about $4k on the Volt. We do have 2 kids currently in college and a third starting soon so even though our house and everything is paid for we still have a fat chunk of change going out to get our kids educated. So the expense of a Tesla isn't going to sink us but it isn't going to be easy either. I've just never been a big spender on cars. I like to buy them used and run them until they die.
After owning a volt I can't imagine buying another ICE car. We also have 14.8 kw of grid tied solar that is paid for so the expenditure on EV charging will be nearly zero. I'm still going to need some help to convince my wife on such an expense. I need to justify spending an extra $15-20k for the M3 over a Subaru Outback.
I know this is a Tesla fan site but I am by no means set on buying a Tesla over a different EV. However, I just can't think of any other EV that has anywhere near the range of the M3 with AWD. If anyone knows of something more affordable that is available or coming soon please let me know.
I have a fairly lengthy commute (110 miles 3 days a week and 230 miles one day a week). Can I expect the M3 LR AWD to make that 230 mile drive in the winter without any range issues?
I figure the outback would get around 28 mpg so that's about $2500/year on gas at $2.5 per gallon, or about $200 a month. Add in 5 oil changes a year at $35 each (I always do my own oil changes with whichever full synthetic oil is on special) so that's another $175 plus brakes and filters and other things should get me close to $2800 a year to operate the Outback. I feel like the numbers are getting me close on the M3 (assuming a can find a slightly used one LR AWD for $35-40k) unless I'm forgetting something, which is why I am here.
Thanks

 

[Palmtree]

See what I mean?

 

[IraB]

You might want to check with your car insurance agent on the cost for the M3. Some people have gotten unpleasant surprises with the unexpected high cost of insurance, but it seems to vary widely by company. Before the M3, my wife had an Audi RS3 and the M3 is actually a bit less expensive to insure for us, but it is still more expensive than my Porsche which is crazy.

 

[IraB]

With respect to range in winter, it will depend on ambient temperature, how much you run the heat, the snow tires you use and the road conditions. I was alarmed when I took a winter drive of less than 200 miles and came close to running out of charge, but that was under some fairly bad conditions, including lots of hills, diving speeds of 70 MPH, 28* outside temperature and 72* inside temperature, wide performance snow tires (that seem to have significant rolling resistance) on 20" wheels, etc. I also started out with 90% charge instead of 100% as making this drive in the summer was never a problem.

You probably can get 230 miles w/o stopping to charge in winter, but you will likely need to keep your speed below 60 MPH to be safe.

 

[RayK]

Move to California. All jokes aside, I don't have any experience in cold weather operations with the 3. I have a 2018 LR RWD that I took up to Tahoe but only when the roads were dry; skied Squaw Valley on July 4th last year. Are there any Superchargers or other DC FAST stations on your 230 mile commute? If so, then I wouldn't worry about the range. On the other hand, if fast charging opportunities are not available anywhere along your route then I'd probably have to say "go with the Subaru",

 

[Ugene]

I'd guess 230 miles could be problematic on the colder and snowier end of Missouri weather if you don't have opportunities to charge. You might be able to make it driving conservatively but it will not be relaxing. If you have opportunities to charge on the way it may make sense, though.

My experience. I have Model 3 Performance with 20" wheels and put performance winter tires in winter. I don't go further than 170-180 miles round trip to the furthest ski resort (Crystal Mountain from Seattle Eastside) without an opportunity to charge. That trip has 4500ft elevation gain/loss and I need to budget for 4 extra hours of being stuck in traffic, and to be able to drive on a snowy road. I recall I came back with 9 miles on the battery starting from close to 100% charge when this worst case materialized.
Note that LR AWD with 18" standard wheels can be 15-20% more efficient than Performance with 20".

On a trip to British Columbia during a cold spell I preferred to charge to 90% to drive 130 miles between superchargers to have a safety buffer and not to have to artificially limit my speed.

 

[1.21GW]

If you are truly using cars to that high of mileage, it may be best for you to wait for the anticipated “1 million mile” battery. Although details are limited to random comments from Elon.

Battery Day for investors is on the near horizon, it may have the information you require to pull the trigger on a future Model 3.

I am very opposite from you and do not keep my cars very long (boredom more than anything), however, this Model 3 may be the car I own the longest. It just does everything so well.

 

[PNWLeccy]

Something to consider is if you have a place to charge at work on that 230mi. commute day. Do you drive 115mi one way, sit at work and then drive back? Or are you roaming all over throughout the day?

If you are sitting at work, even with a normal 120v wall charger you could get 5mi/hr x 8 hours and get ~40mi. That may be the buffer you need but it'll likely still be close. 315 rated miles x .6 (40% winter range loss) = 189mi + 40mi work charging gets you to that 230mi commute if you charge to 100% every day. That seems too close for comfort

 

[Palmtree]

Wow. Thanks for all of the great input. I have thought about that million mile battery claim. I'm not sure the old prius will survive till it's available.
Sadly no superchargers on my long commute. No charger of any kind at this time. It's pretty rural. If course I could always drive the volt in the coldest weather.

 

[PNWLeccy]

This is a good chart to reference: Teslike.com

If you are willing to go 55mph on 18" w/ Aero covers you may have a shot but it will depend on how cold it is.

 

[jrweiss98020]

If no Superchargers, are there any other commercial chargers that you could use for an emergency top-off?

 

[Palmtree]

Thanks for that chart.
I can't even plug on at the hospital at this point. You never know--maybe I could talk to someone and get an outlet outside somewhere.

 

[IraB]

Even if you can only get a 120 volt plug at work you will still be able to add about 3 miles of driving range for each hour of charge. Not much, every bit will help.

 

[andrew1039]

Something else to consider is the stock ride height on the model 3
If you get quite a bit of snow you do want a higher ride height car..
maybe the y?
That’s what I thought last year when the winter got bad and it was my first winter with the car
I got quite a bit of snow on the ground and opted to drive my other car instead because the model 3 bumper is closer to the ground than my other car
Something to consider

 

[Gasaraki]

Can I expect the M3 LR AWD to make that 230 mile drive in the winter without any range issues?

If you charge to 100% and preheat the car while it's charging and your destination has a charger.

 

[Tomc62]

My 2008 Prius is approaching 300,000 miles and it is using oil like crazy (I have to add a quart between 5k mile oil changes). It's been a great, reliable car but I'm not sure how much longer I can keep it going. We live in rural Missouri and have a long steep gravel driveway that requires AWD any time it snows more than an inch. We have given away all 3 of our AWD cars to the kids as they have gone away to college leaving my wife and me with a chevy volt and a prius. The volt only has about 50k miles on it, so the old prius will need to be replaced soon with something than can get up the driveway in the winter.
We don't have any debt other than still owing about $4k on the Volt. We do have 2 kids currently in college and a third starting soon so even though our house and everything is paid for we still have a fat chunk of change going out to get our kids educated. So the expense of a Tesla isn't going to sink us but it isn't going to be easy either. I've just never been a big spender on cars. I like to buy them used and run them until they die.
After owning a volt I can't imagine buying another ICE car. We also have 14.8 kw of grid tied solar that is paid for so the expenditure on EV charging will be nearly zero. I'm still going to need some help to convince my wife on such an expense. I need to justify spending an extra $15-20k for the M3 over a Subaru Outback.
I know this is a Tesla fan site but I am by no means set on buying a Tesla over a different EV. However, I just can't think of any other EV that has anywhere near the range of the M3 with AWD. If anyone knows of something more affordable that is available or coming soon please let me know.
I have a fairly lengthy commute (110 miles 3 days a week and 230 miles one day a week). Can I expect the M3 LR AWD to make that 230 mile drive in the winter without any range issues?
I figure the outback would get around 28 mpg so that's about $2500/year on gas at $2.5 per gallon, or about $200 a month. Add in 5 oil changes a year at $35 each (I always do my own oil changes with whichever full synthetic oil is on special) so that's another $175 plus brakes and filters and other things should get me close to $2800 a year to operate the Outback. I feel like the numbers are getting me close on the M3 (assuming a can find a slightly used one LR AWD for $35-40k) unless I'm forgetting something, which is why I am here.
Thanks

Our awd Model 3 hasn't experienced much snow since we are in SE Indiana and didn't really get much snow this past winter. I drive 140 miles a day 5 days a week and have zero issue with range in cold weather. Now that we have had the car almost 10 months we have been able to determine the cost of charging is right around $50 /month. No oil changes, no breaks to replace, and all the tech and comfort of the Tesla is well worth the extra.

 

[1.21GW]

Also, if you want to keep an eye out for super chargers being installed in your area, take a look at

supercharge.info

 

[Stanwood Steve]

As andrew1039 noted, the clearance on the Model 3 is a bit low (particularly on the Performance model). I found out that snow deeper than about 8 inches and the front lip of the car became a snow plow packing snow into the battery cooling vents. That being said, the car handles the snowy conditions very well with AWD. I have the 20" wheel package and a separate set of wheels with winter tires on them, so traction was optimized. As much as it pains me to say so, given your commute distance, winter conditions, and lack of charging options at work, I'd probably opt for the Subaru.Oh, it hurts to type that...

 

[cypho]

I have a fairly lengthy commute (110 miles 3 days a week and 230 miles one day a week). Can I expect the M3 LR AWD to make that 230 mile drive in the winter without any range issues?

No - you would need to find a way to charge on that 230 mile day. Even during the summer that is going to be tough after a few years when the battery has degraded.

 

[DwightKSchrute]

Road clearance on a Model Y is a bit better - 6.6 inches vs 5.5. They will get the quality correct, soon on the Y