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Could I drive my S forever w/ pack upgrades?

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by Rama, May 5, 2016.

  1. Rama

    Rama Member

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    image.png


    I tried to search for this topic but did not see it. With Elon confirming that pack upgrades will be available, could one in theory drive their Tesla forever if they replaced the pack every 8-10 years? Maybe motors would need to be swapped out as well. This is very interesting idea. Every upgrade would get you more range and maybe even more performance too. Of course you would have to live with or pay for other things that wore out. But hey, cheaper and better for the environment than buying a brand new luxury car.
     
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  2. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    Yeah, that's the plan when my 60kWh battery degrades in 8 years, get a 120kWh replacement ;)
     
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  3. SmartElectric

    SmartElectric Active Member

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    Combined, both my EV's total 90000 km and they both run like new. Tesla at 96% original capacity, and my Smart ED at least that good or better, no noticeable degradation. I can't imagine needing a new battery given the distance travelled, and tough winter conditions these two cars have seen, and yet they run like new.
     
  4. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

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    That's awesome. My Leaf battery range (2011) is starting to get pretty low to cause me a little range worries. Mine gets 50 or so... but I drive like a banshee up hill.

    Originally I was just going to pay the $6k or so for a new Leaf battery... but now I've gotten the Tesla bug. Big time. Maybe I'll buy a high mileage 85. :)

    I have a 3 reserved... but it's going to be hard to wait!!!
     
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  5. Beryl

    Beryl Member

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    I'm pleased to see Elon confirm it himself. I'm thinking that it may make more sense (cost-wise) to trade up for even more technology and warranty.

    If only he'd confirm that we can upgrade the current AP equipment to support AP 2.0.......

    @cdub - given what I know now after 5 months, there is no way I'd could wait another 18 months.
     
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  6. Rama

    Rama Member

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    I don't know about that based on this (Tesla Model 3 battery will be smaller than the Chevy Bolt's).

    A 150kWh pack could cost less than $20k after the Gigafactory gets going. I called a sales center and checked, a trade up to a 90D would already cost more than that. As my car continues to depreciate the trade up cost will get even higher. Plus I see no reason why new packs wouldn't come with the same 8 year infinite mile warranty. BTW a 150kWh pack would be rockin' a 500 mile range!

    Comments on my math are appreciated.
     
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  7. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

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    I doubt this will happen for liability reasons but I could be wrong.
     
  8. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Regardless of the specific number, I'm hopeful that my Signature P85 will have a new, larger number on the trunk by 2025.
     
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  9. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Okay, I'm missing something here.

    What would liability have to do with replacing the current camera and ecu with new updated versions to enable AP 2.0 on older cars?
     
  10. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

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    Well if AP 2.0 is autonomous... the liability will be high as the car will be driving itself. They can't afford to have someone upgrade an old car wrong and someone gets hurt.
     
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  11. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

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    That post was funny?
     
  12. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Autonomous driving certainly presents some new challenges in liability, but I'm not seeing what that has to do with Tesla offering an AP2 upgrade to current AP cars.

    Tesla hasn't suggested they plan to discontinue the S and X in a couple years, and if they don't, they are clearly going to have to be building versions of the S and X with AP2.

    I seriously doubt they'll be changing the drive motors, steering, or braking systems for those AP2 cars - there's nothing suggesting that these might be limits of AP expansion. However, we know they need more sensors, and presumably a better processor set to understand the additional sensors. This is a fairly small set of discrete parts which could easily be replaced.

    How would an AP1 car upgraded to AP2 be any different than an AP2 car for liability purposes?

    It seems to me like Tesla is going to have to do all of the engineering work anyway for AP2 S and X cars, so there's no reason not to offer an upgrade except the traditional industry desire to sell you a new car - which Elon's quote at the beginning of the thread suggests Tesla isn't going to let drive them.

    (That's not to say the upgrade will be cheap - if they don't have the cars prewired for it it might get rather expensive.)
     
  13. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Firstly, we don't know what AP2 entails yet so assuming that anything is "easy" about it is premature.

    Secondly, in the tech world it's often far more expensive and/or a lower quality result to retrofit something than to just build a new one. Tesla has generally shown significant reluctance to retrofits. Sometimes the answer is no. And then no unless you keep badgering. And then ok, fine, but it's some crazy large number. There are a few exceptions of course. But try getting AP on a Signature car for example and it'll likely be a very quick "no" followed by muffled hysterical laughter.
     
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  14. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    True. But I think that was mostly driven by the brake system change and the need for new bumpers for ultrasound. (Did they change the steering system, too? I was never quite sure...)

    And you're right, of course we've never seen AP2. Having said that, I have a hard time believing that it'd be hard to retrofit the triple camera that's floating around in rumors today or that the result would be degraded from a new installation.
     
  15. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Parking sensors required new body panels. Autopilot required a harness that previously didn't exist. The HEPA filter required a new frunk design.

    I'm surprised how confident some are that AP2 will be "important to get" and "a technological advance" yet "be reasonable to retrofit". Cognitive dissonance IMO.
     
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  16. Piney999

    Piney999 Member

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    Oh man, up-gradable batteries?!?! That would be fantastic. I wonder how much of an old battery would be recyclable into new batteries. Tesla might actually be able to make a killing on this.
     
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  17. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    I'm not confident. I think it's a much simpler proposition than Pre-AP to AP, but I'm not at all confident it'll be available.

    I'm more in the "hoping desperately" category, since my Model X order will confirm an hour or two from now, with an initial estimate on the first order screen of July sometime. :)
     
  18. Beryl

    Beryl Member

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    I agree with your math if you are only considering the battery cost. If other desirable technology is added to the newer model, it may be more cost effective to trade up.

    I see upgrading the Tesla battery like adding more storage to a desktop (which I've often done). Sometimes it is more cost effective to buy a new computer for increased processor speed, chips, updated USB ports, plus a new warranty on everything.
     
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  19. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner

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    Who the F is disliking my posts? And why the heck was this one disliked? The internet is weird.
     
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  20. sorka

    sorka Active Member

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    Saw that. I liked it just to counter. Problem is I actually liked it too but couldn't do it twice.
     
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