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Could Model 3 be too late?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by mchelen, May 10, 2015.

  1. mchelen

    mchelen New Member

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    Imagine that sooner or later BMW would announce i5 or 3 series electric.....
    Benz C class electric drive ....
    Audi , Porsche 's full electric model also around corner ....

    Would you still take Model 3 instead of the German electric cars?
     
  2. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    1. Announcements are cheap VW/Audi has been making them for years.

    2. Based on what the Germans have delivered so far--in an eye blink.
     
  3. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    Can't see any real competition on the horizon. The new Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt might come close when it comes to range, but they probably won't be premium cars, and they probably won't have supercharging (unless there are talks with Tesla ongoing behind closed doors).

    The BMW i5 is rumoured to be a plug-in hybrid, due in 2018. So, it won't be all electric and it will arrive after the Model 3. Colour me unimpressed.
     
  4. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    Unless there's a top-secret plan behind the scenes, the Germans will simply not have the batteries at scale to make their Model 3 rivals (with comparable range) cheap enough. Tesla's going about it the right way with the Gigafactory investment as a precursor to the Model 3.

    The biggest reason that I'd take the Model 3 over anything else: the Supercharger network. Tesla's going to be eons ahead on that front in the next 2-3 years.
     
  5. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    Also, do you mean the B class electric drive? It has a Tesla drivetrain. So, it barely fits in the category "competitor".
     
  6. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    A BMW 3 or MB C-class would be unlikely to have an EV-optimized design because their platforms are meant for petrol drivetrains.

    Production volume is also a consideration. How easy will it be for a customer to buy one of these vehicles? Would BMW or MB commit to 100's of thousands per year? If so, where is the battery factory?

    Finally, there is the matter of long-distance travel. Without a Supercharger-like network in major markets, an electric 3-series or C-class would be a difficult sell.

    Any product can have delays.

    However, I don't see competing products as a serious option yet.
     
  7. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    The only german pure electric cars are just late arrivals to a "me too" party.
    Nissan started with a sub-100 mile car and not one german manufacturer has ventured significantly beyond that.
    Sure, BMW went carbon fibre with the i3, but they did followed the pack with the battery.
    VW couldn't even get beyond sticking a battery and motor into an existing model, but at least it was the new model, Merc couldn't even do that.
    So the chances of the germans getting something like the Model 3 to market before Tesla is pretty darned remote.
     
  8. mwulff

    mwulff Member

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    Supercharger network, Over the air updates, Service centers operating at a break even, no dealers to worry about. I think Tesla will do just fine compared to any german EV. The Supercharger network really is the killer-feature for the car and that it's free with the car is even better.
     
  9. Electricfan

    Electricfan Member

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    Sorry if this is a dumb question, but has Elon Musk stated officially that the Model 3 will be able to use the superchargers? Or are we just assuming this?

    I dread that a little bit, as the Model 3 is supposed to be for the "masses", and if we have "masses" charging on the superchargers its going to affect travelling long-distances in the Model S.
     
  10. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Yes, he's said that, not an assumption.
     
  11. mchelen

    mchelen New Member

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    Well, thanks everyone for the facts.....
    but, let's jump into imagination for a moment, what if the German car makers all announce their full electric mainstream models right be4 Model 3....

    Would you still choose Model 3 instead of the German's electric cars ?
     
  12. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    The supercharger rollout will have to be massively accelerated once Tesla starts selling 500k cars/year. Assuming one 8 spot supercharger per 500 cars, that means Tesla will need to open 1000 new supercharger locations per year. Currently they have 425 supercharger locations.
     
  13. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    They would still be just selling cars - Tesla has the Supercharger network. No contest
     
  14. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    #14 Yggdrasill, May 10, 2015
    Last edited: May 10, 2015
    This is impossible to say. We don't know a whole lot about the Model 3, and we know nothing about the (purely hypothetical) cars the Germans would bring to market.

    But if a German car company brought to market a car with similar range, supercharger access and same general utility, at a price point not dissimilar from the Model 3, I would certainly consider it. (I'm not holding my breath.)
     
  15. spottyq

    spottyq Member

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    The deal-breaker difference with other EV is tesla's range (200+ miles) coupled with a good (super)charging network.

    Anything less then that won't even compete. Sure, short range EV have they use, but they can't compete against the model III. A 200 miles EV without supercharging won't be able to do much more than what is possible with 80 miles, while having a much higher price.

    In order to compete with the III without building out a charging network (or making a partnership with Telsa for their superchargers), a car would need 650+ miles of range, in order to cover a day's worth of riding. Which is of course ridiculous with today's battery technology.
     
  16. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    I'm not sure WE are a good measure for this. Personally, if Tesla and the Germans (sans VW*) produced a vehicle with similar specs and price, I would be weighted towards Tesla. Simply because they have a network of fast chargers, and their goal is more in line with mine.

    *I'm off VW...I've owned several, including indirectly (parents), and have not been happy with the current trend in quality.
     
  17. Electricfan

    Electricfan Member

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    And has Elon said the supercharger network will be massively accelerated?

    Hope so. I can't imagine getting to a supercharger and waiting 2 hours for a stall to open up before I could even start charging. As wonderful as that would be for the Tesla brand - means that there are Teslas cruising up and down the highway commonly - it would sure stink for the owners...
     
  18. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    Does it need to be accelerated?

    Based on their projections, and current roll-out pace, it seems that by the time the Model 3 hit it's production capacity there should be plenty of supercharger locations. I don't think we'll see more than 100,000+ Model 3s on the road until at least 2019. While there will be more Model S & Xs on the road by then...the supercharger usage will probably be pretty limited by those owners...comparatively.
     
  19. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    I'm sure LG can scale very quickly (so can Nissan for that matter).

    Right - this is where Tesla would shine in the US. EU is another matter - since public investment is not seen as evil. They (the governments) will quickly cover the continent with CCS.
     
  20. kaneda

    kaneda Member

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    Well for now in France, they are many public funded projects announced recently (cities, highways, etc) and all are slow charging networks. Car manufacturer here only produce city (<90 miles) range EVs, the latest 2015 Renault Zoe for example even dropped the charge speed from 43 to 22kW.

    I guess it will take a while to see any competition to the SC network in EU and that will make it much more difficult for other manufacturers to get into Tesla league.
     

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