Could Model 3 be too late?

[AustinPowers]

So the chances of the germans getting something like the Model 3 to market before Tesla is pretty darned remote.

Agree 100%. The chances are not just remote, they are zero. Reason: currently the German manufacturers aren't even interested in getting such a vehicle to market. They are interested in
1) PHEV versions for their high-end models to meet future emissions regulations, especially in the EU
2) optimizing what they got in the commuter segment, e.g. for the e-Golf 2.0 scheduled for 2018

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Well, thanks everyone for the facts.....
but, let's jump into imagination for a moment, what if the German car makers all announce their full electric mainstream models right be4 Model 3....

Would you still choose Model 3 instead of the German's electric cars ?

As to the first question, no need to imagine that scenario, not going to happen.

As for the second question: hard to tell without further details about Model 3 or indeed any future competition. At the moment I would say Yes though.

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And in actuality, those are Supercharger sites. Each site has an average of 6 Supercharger stalls (at least in the US). So there are already on the order of 2,000+ Supercharger stalls worldwide...

Just in Germany alone there are currently 38 SC locations with 223 stalls. Quite a lot, considering the low sales volume over here.

 

[scaesare]

(this rant isn't against you, more like adding on to your post since I agree with it more than the OP)

...SNIP....

Tesla has that (ease of use) right and it makes me want a Tesla so much more every time another supercharger location goes live. I shouldn't have to deal with 8 different charging providers just because I want to take a multiple city trip.

My god, You could make it look like a Prius, a Leaf, a Hummer, or a El Derado and I'd drive it over other options if it has the range, reliability, and ease of charging that Tesla promises.

I just don't think people understand how much convenience a Supercharger offers. It isn't just range, it isn't just simple to plug in and use, it's also standardized all over the planet and they don't put one or two here and there, they are wallpapering the planet with them 6 and 8 and 10 at a time.

...SNIP...

To use the common paraphrase ... "It's the superchargers stupid!"

Great example of the value of the SC network... I agree with your sentiments wholeheartedly...

 

[Lex]

I too agree with the power (booyah !) of the Supercharger network, it gives Tesla a big lead but I say for the 3 it should be an option, or limited to certain configurations, to keep the sticker price down and to help prevent SC congestion.

I'm guessing there's a way to add transactional SC fees ie. a software lock instead of a physical difference in the configs. I'd bet folks who would look at a Model 3, at least a base model, because they can finally see an "entry level" Tesla in their future wouldn't mind paying, say, $3 per hour at a Supercharger.

Ironically, while not perfect for everyone I actually have great respect for the "everyone gets it" SC model now on all S configurations as it encourages road trips, and thus more enjoyment from your vehicle, wasting little more than some electrons and tires, while also enriching your life, forging family bonds, etc.... yet another compelling part of the whole story to-date.

Reducing costs just isn't as much fun as making the best thing ever :tongue:

 

[igotzzoom]

Well, thanks everyone for the facts.....
but, let's jump into imagination for a moment, what if the German car makers all announce their full electric mainstream models right be4 Model 3....

Would you still choose Model 3 instead of the German's electric cars ?

First of all...Knowing the Germans, their definition of "mainstream" would be $50k+ starting. Unless the E-Golf miraculously triples its range overnight, not going to happen. Could one of the German brands have a 200+ mile EV on the market by mid/late '17? Possibly, but it will probably be $100,000+, which would put it right where the Model S is, not in the Model 3 realm.

 

[Tedkidd]

Tesla has that (ease of use) right and it makes me want a Tesla so much more every time another supercharger location goes live. I shouldn't have to deal with 8 different charging providers just because I want to take a multiple city trip.

My god, You could make it look like a Prius, a Leaf, a Hummer, or a El Derado and I'd drive it over other options if it has the range, reliability, and ease of charging that Tesla promises.

I just don't think people understand how much convenience a Supercharger offers. It isn't just range, it isn't just simple to plug in and use, it's also standardized all over the planet and they don't put one or two here and there, they are wallpapering the planet with them 6 and 8 and 10 at a time.


To use the common paraphrase ... "It's the superchargers stupid!"

Nailed It!!!

The issue is not whether a manufacturer can build a long range EV or even beat Tesla to market. The issue is whether it will be compelling AND at an affordable price point AND whether it will be produced in mass market numbers. Regarding the Bolt or whatever GM's affordable long range EV is called, it has been reported in the short term (2017 time frame) that they will only have sufficient batteries to build a total of about 20,000 cars and that supply would have to be shared between the Spark, Volts, ELRs and "Bolts".

^^^^^ I'm with Larry, question seems pretty hypothetical.

In 2018 I'll consider any 200 mile, $30-40k five door, 4 people comfortably, 5 in a pinch, Supercharger optional car someone wants to produce.

I think Mercedes and Chevy are the most likely to partner on Supercharging. So those will likely be the two Model 3 contenders.
(I spent a few days last week with a B Class - really love that car! Form factor is PERFECT! 200 miles, Supercharging, sunroof, and a lower sticker would make that AMAZING!)

I dread that a little bit, as the Model 3 is supposed to be for the "masses", and if we have "masses" charging on the superchargers its going to affect travelling long-distances in the Model S.

In my mind:

- one of the big advantages of EV's is home charging.
- strategy behind Supercharger locations originally was to bridge travel, not to provide daily recharging. Clearly there are some heavily used locations, but seems that's pretty uncommon.
- I suspect Tesla is on it, meaning they have a way to model projected station use and once the map is filled out they will focus on delivering capacity.

There may be people living close enough to Superchargers that they'd use them for day to day - but when the value of the electricity you are getting is measured against the time and effort of doing one of the things you bought an EV to get AWAY from (going to a station) earns you less than minimum wage, running around to get "free juice" will lose it's appeal pretty quickly. I suspect the FUD imagined into the problem size, and the actual problem size, have no correlation.

 

[voyager]

In EV World Bill Moore wrote that "building the Model 3 will only weaken its position in the market"...

Tesla Motors and Disruptive Innovation - EVWORLD.COM

 

[dsm363]

In EV World Bill Moore wrote that "building the Model 3 will only weaken its position in the market"...

Tesla Motors and Disruptive Innovation - EVWORLD.COM

Love this " Bartman says he counted 13-14 new EV models coming out of German carmakers alone."

 

[MarkR]

Unless there's a top-secret plan behind the scenes, the Germans will simply not have the batteries at scale to make their Model 3 rivals (with comparable range) cheap enough. Tesla's going about it the right way with the Gigafactory investment as a precursor to the Model 3.

Agree with gg_ that BMW is not likely to be serious competition to the Model 3 because they don't have access to cheap batteries and don't have a supercharger network. BUT, I would welcome to Germans to the BEV market because it would be a serious indication to the world market that BEVs are completely credible.

 

[Larry Chanin]

I think Mercedes and Chevy are the most likely to partner on Supercharging. So those will likely be the two Model 3 contenders.
(I spent a few days last week with a B Class - really love that car! Form factor is PERFECT! 200 miles, Supercharging, sunroof, and a lower sticker would make that AMAZING!)

Yes, I agree.

If the Germans are smart they'll buy their batteries from Tesla, adopt the Tesla charging specification, and pay the admission fee to gain access to the Supercharger network. If I were Daimler I would negotiate with Tesla to furnish the powertrains for their long distance, mass market EV, just as they are doing with the B-Class.

Larry

As has been pointed out numerous times, the Supercharger Network provides Tesla with a competitive advantage. BUT, Tesla is offering access to the network with some terms attached. So if you are a competitor why not take Tesla up on that offer thereby neutralizing a serious competitive advantage?

After partnering with Tesla to build out the network in order to gain access to it, then the only competition would be between the value proposition of the vehicles themselves. The other car manufacturers' long suit is building cars, not electric charging infrastructure. Such a partnership would have them competing in their comfort zone.

Larry

 

[dsm363]

Well said Larry. Definitely agree.

I wonder if any of them can swallow their pride though and accept that someone did something better than they did and give up that control.

 

[Larry Chanin]

In EV World Bill Moore wrote that "building the Model 3 will only weaken its position in the market"...

Tesla Motors and Disruptive Innovation - EVWORLD.COM

The problem with these academic studies on what Tesla should do are usually based on profitability. Whereas it may make Tesla investors a bit uncomfortable for me to say this, but Elon's primary motivations have not been about making money. His key motivations are about inducing the automobile industry to to seriously start building emission free vehicles. The only way to seriously convince the competition to to this is to demonstrate a danger of losing market share. Tesla has already done so with the large, luxury sedan market and now to keep the pressure up they need to do the same with the mass market.

Is this likely to be more difficult and less profitable? Absolutely. Does it need to be pursued nevertheless, despite the academic arguments? Absolutely.

Larry

 

[Tedkidd]

:wink:

Tesla is offering access to the network with some terms attached. So if you are a competitor why not take Tesla up on that offer thereby neutralizing a serious competitive advantage?

After partnering with Tesla to build out the network in order to gain access to it, then the only competition would be between the value proposition of the vehicles themselves. The other car manufacturers' long suit is building cars, not electric charging infrastructure. Such a partnership would have them competing in their comfort zone.

Larry

Irony is by neutralizing one competitive advantage they create another. To use Superchargers the'd likely adopt Teslas A/C charging standards also - an idea some recognize I LOVE...

 

[Larry Chanin]

:wink:



Irony is by neutralizing one competitive advantage they create another. To use Superchargers the'd likely adopt Teslas A/C charging standards also - an idea some recognize I LOVE...

Yes. Of course the benefit of using the Tesla A/C charging specification will accrue to the future EV driving public. The retail price of a Tesla High Power Wall Connector (HPWCs) is $750. The retail price of the least expensive high capacity J1772 charger is $2195. Tesla's charging solution is almost 1/3rd the cost of "standard" equivalent capacity chargers. Tesla of course is aggressively giving away HPWCs as part of its Destination Charging Program. So in addition to the competitive advantage of the Supercharger network, they are also rapidly building out a Level 2 Destination Charging network using the same charging specification. As you say, another competitive advantage.

As an illustrative example of the rapid progress being made in expanding the HPWC network, please refer to HPWCs in Florida.

Larry

 

[Yggdrasill]

Irony is by neutralizing one competitive advantage they create another. To use Superchargers the'd likely adopt Teslas A/C charging standards also - an idea some recognize I LOVE...

I think it's unlikely that any big car maker would adopt the US supercharger plug entirely. If they buy into the network in the US, my guess is they'd go for a two plug solution, like CHAdeMO/J1772.

In Europe, however, Tesla uses the Type 2 plug, and I can see BMW and others buying into the network, if they needed to. They would really *need* to, though, because buying into the Supercharger network strengthens Tesla and undermines CCS. And CCS is their own standard! Really, if BMW or any other big car maker bought into the Tesla network, it would be the end of CCS.

 

[Tedkidd]

I think it's unlikely that any big car maker would adopt the US supercharger plug entirely. If they buy into the network in the US, my guess is they'd go for a two plug solution, like CHAdeMO/J1772.

Multi plug location and installation, particularly multiple big clunky outlets, becomes a pretty fair design constraint. Tesla plug can go almost anywhere.

 

[Larry Chanin]

I think it's unlikely that any big car maker would adopt the US supercharger plug entirely. If they buy into the network in the US, my guess is they'd go for a two plug solution, like CHAdeMO/J1772.

In the US, when Tesla is producing hundreds of thousands of cars per year with the Tesla charging specification, and thousands of Supercharger terminals and Level 2 Destination chargers are in operation that likewise use that same specification, do you still think that big car makers would be wise to go for a two plug solution using specifications that are clearly inferior on a performance and compactness basis?

In Europe, however, Tesla uses the Type 2 plug, and I can see BMW and others buying into the network, if they needed to. They would really *need* to, though, because buying into the Supercharger network strengthens Tesla and undermines CCS. And CCS is their own standard! Really, if BMW or any other big car maker bought into the Tesla network, it would be the end of CCS.

When the car maker's viability is at stake do you really think that they would have any loyalty to a mere charging standard?

Larry

 

[Yggdrasill]

In the US, when Tesla is producing hundreds of thousands of cars per year with the Tesla charging specification, and thousands of Supercharger terminals and Level 2 Destination chargers are in operation that likewise use that same specification, do you still think that big car makers would be wise to go for a two plug solution using specifications that are clearly inferior on a performance and compactness basis?

If we see a situation where Tesla is selling hundreds of thousands of cars in the US, while Nissan, Cheverolet, Ford, BMW, etc are only selling tens of thousands each, I can certainly see the possibility that Tesla's standard could become the de facto standard. But currently Tesla only has ~20% of plugin sales in the US. That's just not enough to go the brute force route. Unless this situation changes fast, J1772 is here to stay. And if J1772 is here to stay for AC, what are the options for DC? They can either go for the SAE Combo plug, or they can go for a two plug solution.

The difference between the US and Europe is that it is a fact that the Type 2 standard has pretty much won. There is very little doubt. Right out of the gate Tesla adopted the Type 2 because of the three-phase support (which J1772 doesn't support, so right there it is doomed in Europe). Knowing that the Type 2 will be the AC charging standard, that leaves three options for the DC charging; CCS, Tesla Type 2 or a combination of both. Both are compatible with regular Type 2, the difference being that Tesla does DC through the standard pins, while CCS uses the two extra DC pins. This means that you can equip a car with a Tesla Type 2 including the two extra DC pins, and the car can use both CCS and superchargers. This is a great way to sell it to the Germans.

When the car maker's viability is at stake do you really think that they would have any loyalty to a mere charging standard?

Certainly not. But they will defend the CCS standard ferociously. It wouldn't surprise me if they would try to get the authorities to outright ban the Tesla Type 2 connector. The only place they could get any traction with that would be Germany, though.

 

[Larry Chanin]

If we see a situation where Tesla is selling hundreds of thousands of cars in the US, while Nissan, Cheverolet, Ford, BMW, etc are only selling tens of thousands each, I can certainly see the possibility that Tesla's standard could become the de facto standard. But currently Tesla only has ~20% of plugin sales in the US. That's just not enough to go the brute force route. Unless this situation changes fast, J1772 is here to stay. And if J1772 is here to stay for AC, what are the options for DC? They can either go for the SAE Combo plug, or they can go for a two plug solution.

The difference between the US and Europe is that it is a fact that the Type 2 standard has pretty much won. There is very little doubt. Right out of the gate Tesla adopted the Type 2 because of the three-phase support (which J1772 doesn't support, so right there it is doomed in Europe). Knowing that the Type 2 will be the AC charging standard, that leaves three options for the DC charging; CCS, Tesla Type 2 or a combination of both. Both are compatible with regular Type 2, the difference being that Tesla does DC through the standard pins, while CCS uses the two extra DC pins. This means that you can equip a car with a Tesla Type 2 including the two extra DC pins, and the car can use both CCS and superchargers. This is a great way to sell it to the Germans.

Certainly not. But they will defend the CCS standard ferociously. It wouldn't surprise me if they would try to get the authorities to outright ban the Tesla Type 2 connector. The only place they could get any traction with that would be Germany, though.

Thank you for your helpful explanation.

In the US I think that Tesla has a real chance of pulling away from the competition rapidly if they are successful with both the Gigafactory and the Model 3. Currently I don't see the major players having the resolve to quickly increase battery production to stay apace with hundreds of thousands of Teslas per year. Even Nissan who has significant battery resources seems likely to maintain a conservative approach to ramping up production. If a major player such as Daimler were to adopt the Tesla specification and enter the market with a serious long range EV, things could turn around quickly.

Larry

 

[Tedkidd]

Fascinating. Sounds like the European approach offers more versatility, which will make the argument to move to the Tesla approach a little tougher.

 

[smac]

You're not doing 0-60 in 4.7 "all whilst able to do 42 mpg". It's one or the other but not both. That 42 mpg goes way down doing 0-60 fast, especially around town with a lot of stops and starts. That's where Tesla has a huge advantage and why I look forward to getting into it every day.

Sorry if my wording wasn't clear. Of course I didn't mean both at the same time

I know a couple of people that have them, and they are obviously far worse MPG if driven to hard, and even with care won't reach the official figures. (But TBH no cars do given how all manufacturers game the NEDC rating system).