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Countdown for 75kwh pack in Model S?

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mtavel

mtavel

Member
Jan 9, 2016
49
64
United States
#1
A little backstory, I've been planning to get a Model S since before they were unveiled. I put down a deposit for one as soon as reservations opened up - but I had to cancel as the price of the car went up, and the recession of 2008 just got uglier.

Here I am now, still saving my pennies to get one and will be able to place my order in June or July. The refresh has come and gone, but now a new twist.... the 75kwh battery.

I'm looking to order a 70d - but always had some concerns about not having the range to make it comfortably between superchargers (I live in an area that doesn't have Superchargers all over the place and I don't want to worry about wind direction). The introduction of the Model X's 75kwh pack seems like just what I was looking for.

I plan on keeping this car long term - so waiting an extra few months to get something with better capabilities seems to make sense to me. Just wondering how many other people may be in the same boat and what your thought are.
 
#4
Seems the vast majority owners here have 90kwh packs.... so the idea of waiting for Tesla to run out of 70kwh packs using only the Model S as an outlet could take a long time.

I would be surprised if Tesla was already including the 75kwh packs on cars and labeling the cars as a 70. I totally agree that they would want to have as small a variety of battery packs to stock and manage as possible.

I guess the 2 main factors that would determine a switchover is how many 70kwh packs they have left, and how many 70kwh cars they sell a week/month. I think both of those numbers would be tricky to come by.
 
#5
Keep in mind that Tesla offered both the 85 and 90 for several months -- and only recently phased out the 85. I really doubt that the 70s currently include a 75 battery -- mostly since the X75s won't be delivered until June (but a S70 ordered today is May delivery).

But I do believe Tesla will drop the 70 and bump it to a 75.

Separately, I have a S60... Regarding your concern on range -- how far are the Superchargers from you? Have you played with EV Trip Planner yet to see what the range estimates are under different conditions? A couple weeks ago, we were up in Monument Valley, and drove ~184 actual miles to the Gallup Supercharger instead of going up to Blanding UT and adding several hundred extra miles to ensure "safe" supercharger access. We drove a little under the limit for part of the drive to ensure enough reserve -- and ended up arriving with 20 rated displayed (which means we could have made it directly to Holbrook instead of the detour to Gallup -- Holbrook was 10 miles additional distance, and I didn't feel like cutting my reserve any closer...).
 
#9
mtavel said:
A little backstory, I've been planning to get a Model S since before they were unveiled. I put down a deposit for one as soon as reservations opened up - but I had to cancel as the price of the car went up, and the recession of 2008 just got uglier.

Here I am now, still saving my pennies to get one and will be able to place my order in June or July. The refresh has come and gone, but now a new twist.... the 75kwh battery.

I'm looking to order a 70d - but always had some concerns about not having the range to make it comfortably between superchargers (I live in an area that doesn't have Superchargers all over the place and I don't want to worry about wind direction). The introduction of the Model X's 75kwh pack seems like just what I was looking for.

I plan on keeping this car long term - so waiting an extra few months to get something with better capabilities seems to make sense to me. Just wondering how many other people may be in the same boat and what your thought are.
Click to expand...
If price is really an issue, why not just wait for Model 3? Did you order Model 3?

If range is an issue, go for the 90D Model S, worth the 13000 dollars upgrade.
 
#12
ggnykk said:
If price is really an issue, why not just wait for Model 3? Did you order Model 3?

If range is an issue, go for the 90D Model S, worth the 13000 dollars upgrade.
Click to expand...
I'm only slightly concerned about range on the occasional road trip. The extra 5kwh would just give me a little extra cushion. 13k for occasional extra cushion seems like overkill to me (based on how I will be driving the car). I will not regularly need to drive 200+ miles at a stretch.

I really like the Model 3, but I'm set on a Model S.... while the S is a bit of a stretch for me, it is manageable and I really can't wait 1.5+ years to get a new car. I'm turning in my current lease this week and will be using a 20 year old beater until my Model S arrives (which I will purchase, not lease). I'm just trying to get as much value in the car as I can - if an upgrade will be available in 1 or 2 months, I can delay a bit to get that (even if it's a $3k upcharge for the extra bit of range). If it's a 6+ month wait for something? Not worth waiting for (for me).

Don't the Model X and Model S use the same battery pack? Seems strange to me they would have engineered a 75kwh pack for the X and never intend to put it into the S. Now the 3 will be a totally different pack since the S and X packs don't physically fit.
 
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#13
mtavel said:
I'm only slightly concerned about range on the occasional road trip. The extra 5kwh would just give me a little extra cushion. 13k for occasional extra cushion seems like overkill to me (based on how I will be driving the car). I will not regularly need to drive 200+ miles at a stretch.

I really like the Model 3, but I'm set on a Model S.... while the S is a bit of a stretch for me, it is manageable and I really can't wait 1.5+ years to get a new car. I'm turning in my current lease this week and will be using a 20 year old beater until my Model S arrives (which I will purchase, not lease). I'm just trying to get as much value in the car as I can - if an upgrade will be available in 1 or 2 months, I can delay a bit to get that (even if it's a $3k upcharge for the extra bit of range). If it's a 6+ month wait for something? Not worth waiting for (for me).

Don't the Model X and Model S use the same battery pack? Seems strange to me they would have engineered a 75kwh pack for the X and never intend to put it into the S. Now the 3 will be a totally different pack since the S and X packs don't physically fit.
Click to expand...
Don't be fooled by the official EPA ratings. Real world range is about 70% of the EPA range depending on conditions. Just like everything in marketing with any companies, take it with a grain of salt. You definitely won't get anywhere close to 200 miles in real world in 70D Model S unless you use a lot of extreme hyper-miling techniques, or you are driving constantly downhill.
 
#15
mtavel said:
Don't the Model X and Model S use the same battery pack? Seems strange to me they would have engineered a 75kwh pack for the X and never intend to put it into the S. Now the 3 will be a totally different pack since the S and X packs don't physically fit.
Click to expand...

Yes they do, but if they have a supply of parts for the 70 and need a supply of parts for the 75 it allows them to use the old parts in the S and the new in the X until they run out of the old and get the two back in sync.

Prior to the X they used to have to list both the 60 and the 70 at the same time or run out and make people wait before they started making the "new low end pack" after they run out of the "old low end pack".

Much cleaner with S for "old low end" and X for "new low end" and as soon as they run out of "old low end" they both get "new low end".

Most likely Model 3 and Model Y will serve the same purpose with any transition causing 3 to get "old ultra low end" and Model Y to get "new ultra low end" while S and X still have larger packs than either one of 3 and Y.

Eventually there will be so many pack sizes and capacities running around you'll have to add years to them because of the overlap. So in 2018 maybe the Model S low end pack is a 85 kWh 2018 edition but we had a 85 kWh pack in 2012.

Model S60 pre AP (2012 to early 2014)
Model S85 pre AP (2012 to early 2014)

Model S60 with AP (late 2014)
Model S85 with AP (late 2014)

Model S70 (early 2015)
Model S90 (mid 2015)

Model X75 (mid 2016?) and S75 (mid 2016?)
Model X100 and S100 (late 2016?)

Model X80 and S80 (2017)
Model X105 and S105 (2017)

Model 3 - 65 (range similar to a S80) - 2018 version
Model 3 - 80 (range similar to a S100) - 2018 version

Model X85 and S85 (2018 version)
Model X110 and S110 (2018)

Model Y - 65 (range similar to a S75) - 2018 version
Model Y - 80 (range similar to a S100) - 2018 version

obviously my 2016 and on packs are guesses and I've had to change this list several times but hopefully that puts the march of packs into perspective.
 
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#16
The web site for consolidation - ev-cpo.com - shows a lot of 90 models and fairly few 70s. Maybe they are going to phase out the 70 and 75 and just offer the 90? The price difference is really not that much. A larger battery alone can help lower the need for as many superchargers to be deployed.
 
#17
ggnykk said:
Don't be fooled by the official EPA ratings. Real world range is about 70% of the EPA range depending on conditions. Just like everything in marketing with any companies, take it with a grain of salt. You definitely won't get anywhere close to 200 miles in real world in 70D Model S unless you use a lot of extreme hyper-miling techniques, or you are driving constantly downhill.
Click to expand...

Says the guy from somewhere in New York to the guy who could live anywhere in the USA.

Do you have any data?
 
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