COVID-19 Recession

[mrmage]

Turbulent times favor companies that offer solutions. People desperate to survive or thrive are open to any change that benefits them.

Covid-19 is great for Tesla of course. Not having to pump gas or visit a gas station is a big plus. So is owning your car rather than sharing vehicles. When people feel insecure, they prefer self sufficiency so v2g would be huge.

With only 1 or 2 percent global market for vehicles, I think Tesla’s growth in market share can offset overall demand reduction.

One potential setback would be a market crash that drops PE ratios across the board. That won’t hold Tesla back, but could impact TSLA short term. Buy and holders won’t care.

 

[Buckminster]

Nothing very new here but makes you think that getting back to 90% of the old economy isn't as good as it sounds.

 

[renim]

I don't think the politicians threw a lot of stimulus into the mix in the 1930s my impression is loan became hard to obtain.

In Australia
..

In Australia, its going pretty well except for tourism and retail. Covid19 gave australia its biggest ever current account surplus, so there's that.

But some of those qld coastal tourist towns are looking at underemployment effects 4x the national average - and real estate issues too.

So its not a general recession coming but a sector specific depressions mixed with other healthy sectors.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Thanks for slowing down the pace of bumping your threads. 2-4 per weekend is much better than the usual 7.

 

[EinSV]

US unemployment report is surprisingly good -- only 13.3% v expectations of 19% -- with 2.5 million jobs gained in May v. expected loss of 7.25 million (a swing of almost 10 million jobs v. expectations!).

We're not out of the woods yet by any stretch but very promising sign of a recovery in the works.

U.S. regains 2.5 million jobs in May, unemployment falls to 13.3% as economy starts to recover from coronavirus

(PS Please forgive the cross-post from the main thread but also thought it was relevant to this one.)

 

[CatB]

Re: not out of the woods. I think we have at least one new forest coming...

I am hearing a lot of companies are learning that telework works and they are rightfully wondering why they spend so much on commercial real estate. Either we will have a series of pandemics (like the 3 plagues of the Black Death) and companies will need that space for fewer people (although elevator capacity/safety will need to be worked out), or as commercial leases expire, that sector of the economy will decline and not recover. Since RE taxes fund city budgets, this will be a big problem in US.

And I would like to believe that BLM will cause some positive changes in at least US values and we will have some social reforms that would have economic impact (funding schools, social work and and community services; more equitable healthcare to address higher BIPOC mortality, etc.)

 

[Buckminster]

How are people feeling following the dexamethasone news? Vaccine likelihood this year seems to be increasing.

 

[MC3OZ]

How are people feeling following the dexamethasone news? Vaccine likelihood this year seems to be increasing.

I posted this tweet in the main thread:-
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1271791093714206721

Skeptics looking at this wrongly as a normal recession. It’s a “flash recession” similar to after 1918 pandemic, 1968 pandemic, 9/11. Flash recessions characterized by “revenge consumption” (Jun’20 credit card spending near Jun’19 levels) + instant Fed put and fiscal stimulus.

I'm not 100% sold on V-shaped recovery, but the majority may have a v-shaped recovery..

Given the progress on vaccines, treatment and testing, a pronounced 2nd wave most places is unlikely ...

The US is however one country I have a lot of doubt about, it seems they may have opened too soon, or not in a well organised fashion, I'm hopeful it might turn out OK, but that might be more like good luck than good management..

A bit like Elon, Gary Black doubts the wisdom of having a shutdown, most of the public don't like shutdowns..

A good treatment option is very welcome...

Fundamentally, I think businesses that will not survive are already in trouble, 2nd wave or not it is too late for them..

Those that are in good shape now, will probably be in even better shape in around 1 year's time..

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I posted this tweet in the main thread:-
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1271791093714206721



I'm not 100% sold on V-shaped recovery, but the majority may have a v-shaped recovery..

Given the progress on vaccines, treatment and testing, a pronounced 2nd wave most places is unlikely ...

The US is however one country I have a lot of doubt about, it seems they may have opened too soon, or not in a well organised fashion, I'm hopeful it might turn out OK, but that might be more like good luck than good management..

A bit like Elon, Gary Black doubts the wisdom of having a shutdown, most of the public don't like shutdowns..

A good treatment option is very welcome...

Fundamentally, I think businesses that will not survive are already in trouble, 2nd wave or not it is too late for them..

Those that are in good shape now, will probably be in even better shape in around 1 year's time..

With NY and NJ deaths going down, despite re-opening, I think there are enough immune (~25%) to rule out a full blown 2nd wave. There just won't be enough carriers for the virus to propagate exponentially again.

Edit: Just to clarify that this is just with NY and NJ! The rest of the nation doesn't have anywhere near that level of immunity (through past infection).

 

[Buckminster]

Angela Merkel fears economic crisis is being underestimated in EU

 

[Davidson1987]

I've heard that Covid has hit very strongly on the Tesla Company. And as the result, the sales are very poor.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

это правда

 

[Buckminster]

There has been some good news on vaccines etc. recently. I am no longer nearly as worried about the world as I was. Everyone in agreement?

I think the UK will be affected the more than most though. A lot of these jobs won't come back. It is definitely looking like WFH will be the norm for millions.

 

[Buckminster]

Great new podcast with Chamath:

Lots on Covid.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

7 thread self thread bumps today? Really?

 

[jbcarioca]

This reaffirms what we know. Despite press enthusiasm we only know that Omicron:
- is more communicable than other variants have been, so far.
-is fairly easy to identify
-has a couple dozen mutations on the spike, that may have negative consequences for vaccines, but we DO NOT know.
- has another group of mutations that may have no material consequences but we DO NOT know.
-Moderna and BioNTech have both received fully sequenced and analyzed samples so will have candidate vaccine modifications within a couple of weeks.
- the samples used thus far have been from samples drawn as early as November 8. Worldwide there si a search for early samples that may not have been recognized at the time. As that data comes in using the next couple fo weeks we'll know much more about the geographical spread andtransmissability of Omicron.

_Despite worldwide press announcements to the contrary there is no reliable validated data about the virulence of Omicron nor the potential for breakthrough nor appropriate treatment choices.

Obviously the press everywhere is anxious so they are pressing hard for opinions. None of those are in any way indicative of factual evidence.

I am reminded of an episode Had a long time ago when data was erroneously presented with a grossly inadequate sample.
A senior colleague said: "...but it is directionally accurate"
My response "...no it is not. We have no way of knowing whether it is relevant, they is insufficient data"

It is really unsatisfying when people almost everywhere are jumping to conclusions.

FWIW: the initial reports of mild symptoms came form a group of people who were young, otherwise healthy and presented mild symptoms. Thus the false inference was made that Omicron may be milder. We have no idea, we'll know in a few weeks time.

Enhancing response to Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant

On 26 November 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 a variant of concern (VOC), on the basis of advice from WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution. The variant has been given the name Omicron. Omicron is a highly divergent variant with a high number of mutations, including...

www.who.int

 

[betstarship]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696583516644053428

Edit: Sorry, I should add context - this was seriously frustrating to learn of just now. I can't imagine how many lives were negatively affected due to the policies related to this disaster.

 

[ggr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696583516644053428

Edit: Sorry, I should add context - this was seriously frustrating to learn of just now. I can't imagine how many lives were negatively affected due to the policies related to this disaster.

Whatever that was, it's gone now. Can you summarize please?

 

[betstarship]

Whatever that was, it's gone now. Can you summarize please?

Whoa - yeah sure - summary: Sweden had the least excess deaths than any country