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CPO Model X sub $45K - when will that happen?

Discussion in 'Model X' started by DJ 240V, Jun 24, 2017.

  1. DJ 240V

    DJ 240V Member

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    Need your advice and some rational guesstimates .

    Curious to know when ( year/month) this will happen and what the specs are likely to be ?

    I was planning on trading in my second ICE car for Model 3 , wondering if I should just go for a used Model x.

    Have a MS now.
     
  2. AEdennis

    AEdennis Active Member

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    Take a look at where Model S dropps to that level... then project the same time frame (so five years from launch? Or three and a half if it's faster? December 2015 delivery for the very first ones delivered, mid 2018 at earliest to 2020?)
     
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  3. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    OP - thanks for asking. I am looking for an affordable CPO too. I will wait for a 100D - with no additional frills - till it hits may be $60K
     
  4. Xminus6

    Xminus6 Member

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    Yeah I'd think it would have to be considerably after the first ones start coming off lease. So 4 or 5 years from now.
     
  5. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Maybe by then a new Model Y will be available at that price?
     
  6. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    I agree with this timeline and only for 60D/75D.
     
  7. DJ 240V

    DJ 240V Member

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    That's what I thought too, except the wait period migh me two more years later.
     
  8. Pandamoanium

    Pandamoanium Member

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    Honestly, it might be sooner depending on what's released. If you just compare it to what Tesla is willing to pay for trades and such, it doesn't look like it'll take long.

    If you find a low battery pack the. It could even be as soon as a year or less.
     
  9. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    You would also need to run out of buyers at the 60-55-50k price points.

    Think how long that would take.

    Those first Model X are NOT losing 66 percent of their value in a year or less.

    I'll sell you a put option on MX pricing right now at the 45k strike for JUN 2018 if you would like.

    Name a price.
     
  10. Pandamoanium

    Pandamoanium Member

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    As of a couple of months ago, they offered me what would be 63.8% of the original value. That's before 8 months of ownership. Now just imagine what they will offer once the one year hits. Sure, they're going to sell it higher, but if they sell a 90D for 75K - 80K, what do you think a current 60D would go for? Now fast forward another year or two at the most, market is going to change and they'll depreciate even more.

    I think Tesla's are in a different category since it's car depreciation and technology evolution. This is also coming at a bad time with the new Model 3 and other companies gearing up to compete.
     
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  11. Maaz

    Maaz Member

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    3-4 years.
     
  12. Pandamoanium

    Pandamoanium Member

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    Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have my X retain value or even appreciate, but I think us early adopters are going to lose the most!
     
  13. DJ 240V

    DJ 240V Member

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    Isn't that an oxymoron? 100D and no frills :)
     
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  14. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    A better barometer is to look at the price cliff between the first gen Model S and the ones with AP1.

    Model X rarity, utility, minimum technology etc will always price it as a premium over the S CPOs

    Even if Tesla gives you awful trade in values, what dictates the price is the willingness to pay from the demand side. These will fly off the shelves at 60k.
     
  15. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    I think you are wrong. Just because Tesla lowballs the trade in, demand keeps the price up.
     
  16. DJ 240V

    DJ 240V Member

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    make sense - the only that will change all this a revolutionary battery tech on the newer models that gets the range significantly higher.
     
  17. Yinn

    Yinn Member

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    A MX 60D currently has a trade in value of ~60k +/- $5-$10k based on options and condition. So subjectively - finger in the wind, I would think maybe 2 years.

    Then based on the depreciation of the S...
    On mileage, at about 70,000 miles. At an average of 12,000 mi/year that's a total of 5-6 years from new. So about another 4 years.
    Report: The Tesla Model S Depreciates Only 28% Over The First 50,000 Miles
     
  18. Pandamoanium

    Pandamoanium Member

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    You're in luck! Today's changes and have rapidly depreciated the current Model X fleet!

    In all honesty, I don't think it's that Tesla doesn't care about resale value, it's that by doing this and rapidly dropping the value of current cars, more people will be getting into an EV. Smart to try and accelerate the move to EVs, rude to owners who actually care.
     
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  19. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    My car still works as far as I know. Still better to own two Tesla's vs lease 3 in the same 9 year time period.

    6 seats is still superior if you want to transport 5-6 people most of the time.

    Existing owners can hope for a software upgrade for the quicker speeds. Only real area of heartburn.
     

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