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CPO (P)85D vs New 75D
- Thread starter Hedgehog3141
- Start date
Do you have a mortgage?
Do you have any cost of capital?
Do you have an opportunities that can yield more than 1.5%?
Take it to the Burbank SC on a mini road trip. They are doing our CPO now. Unless yours fell outside the allowed VIN range? I am guessing your local SC says no?
Cory151
Member
davidc18
Active Member
If you can take advantage of the tax credit passing it up is difficult to do.
Our 5.2 second 70D is a great around town kid(s) hauler, the P90DL is a completely different animal when you plant your foot (at any speed). I expect the new 75D vs old P85D is a similar comparison.
Put another way when driving the 70D I am happy I saved a ton vs the P85D and when driving the P90DL I am more than happy that I spent the money.
Our 5.2 second 70D is a great around town kid(s) hauler, the P90DL is a completely different animal when you plant your foot (at any speed). I expect the new 75D vs old P85D is a similar comparison.
Put another way when driving the 70D I am happy I saved a ton vs the P85D and when driving the P90DL I am more than happy that I spent the money.
whitex
Well-Known Member
I somehow don't think that's the case. On paper P85D is 3.1s 0-60, vs. new S75D 4.2s. That is a larger difference than P85D and P100DL (3.1s to 2.5s) or even P85D to P85DL (3.1s to 2.8s) - an upgrade which I got and gotta tell you you can tell the difference, especially 30mph+.
I think there a way to much emphasize on performance.
Yes, of course, more power equals more fun. But with the current line-up, even with the 75 you can beat 99,631% (scientific fact) of cars on the road.
With these numbers, I would definitely go for the car that have the better options for you as a driver. The seats, the suspension, roof, audio if that is important for you, etc. etc. And, with more warranty, newer battery, better trade-in value, I would say the 75 is the better pick.
Yes, of course, more power equals more fun. But with the current line-up, even with the 75 you can beat 99,631% (scientific fact) of cars on the road.
With these numbers, I would definitely go for the car that have the better options for you as a driver. The seats, the suspension, roof, audio if that is important for you, etc. etc. And, with more warranty, newer battery, better trade-in value, I would say the 75 is the better pick.
whitex
Well-Known Member
I agree that options are important, and performance is one of those options (for example, heated rear seats vs. more power - which one is better depends of course on the buyer). Not sure how you came up with 75 is a better pick based on warranty and trade-in value since warranty on non-high-mileage CPO is the same 4-year except for the 8 year battery warranty which started when it was new, and trade-in value on the CPO is better as a large depreciation hit was already taken.
Exactly for the reason you mentioned.
A 75D, when it will be time for resale in 4-5 years, will be:
- 2 years newer,
- will still have warranty valid for 3 years to come for battery / power train and these are the potential high cost you may face. I am not sure changing a motor or the transmission out of warranty would be cheap
So I understand that today, the P85D / S85D still have a good resale value. But in 4-5 years from now, the old design, old AP, old seats and interior will for sure be less appealing.
Between a S75D and S85D, this is clearly a no-brainer (as the S75D is as good or better in every way without being significantly more expensive).
For the P85D, as Peewee stated, this is really getting 1s less in acceleration (which is nothing to laugh about, I admit) versus newer car, newer AP with more evolution potential, easier to resale in a few years from now, newer interior...
Having just bought a 75 (RWD), I would go for the new 75D for the reasons already cited. The performance increase was significant, which makes it a much better value compared to CPO than it was four months ago.
Having watched the quarterly incentives, I would say if are not in a rush, you buy at the right time of the quarter, and are willing to take an inventory vehicle, you could get significantly better pricing.
Make sure in your mind that you realize you are not getting a "driver's" car like the BMW, and it's not small and light like the M2 -- at all. The Tesla is fun to drive but it's not a German sportscar. That said, I recently owned a 2015 M5 and a 2016 AMG C63S.. I would trade them both in for the Model S in a heartbeat.
Also be aware that Tesla is constantly adding new features, some of which could make you upset for having just bought it before something was upgraded. I wouldn't be surprised to see some major upgrades to the S/X soon, so keep that in mind for your timing. My Owner Advisor stated that people often come back to the showroom after a few weeks, upset about some feature that *just* came out after they purchased. But then three months later they are all thrilled at how awesome their car is. So (short-term) buyer's remorse is common with the car for this reason.
Having watched the quarterly incentives, I would say if are not in a rush, you buy at the right time of the quarter, and are willing to take an inventory vehicle, you could get significantly better pricing.
Make sure in your mind that you realize you are not getting a "driver's" car like the BMW, and it's not small and light like the M2 -- at all. The Tesla is fun to drive but it's not a German sportscar. That said, I recently owned a 2015 M5 and a 2016 AMG C63S.. I would trade them both in for the Model S in a heartbeat.
Also be aware that Tesla is constantly adding new features, some of which could make you upset for having just bought it before something was upgraded. I wouldn't be surprised to see some major upgrades to the S/X soon, so keep that in mind for your timing. My Owner Advisor stated that people often come back to the showroom after a few weeks, upset about some feature that *just* came out after they purchased. But then three months later they are all thrilled at how awesome their car is. So (short-term) buyer's remorse is common with the car for this reason.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Cars largest depreciation happens in the first 2 years, so a if you have a new car and 2 year old car today, both prices the same today, in 2 years the new one will depreciate more, no? In 4-5 years, the difference will be less, a 5 year old 75D vs. 7 year old P85D are not going to have as much different value, but the P85D may actually have higher value (both out of main warranty, both still under 8 year warranty, both outdated as far as features go, P85D providing more excitement to those in the market to 5 year old Tesla).
I think you're overestimating the value of 5 year old AP2. It will be old news by then. When AP came out, people were lamenting about how it devalued their pre-AP cars. Go look at used Teslas today and find similarly equipped cars with and without AP (from ~October 2014 if I recall correctly). You will be shocked to find our that nearly identical cars, one with AP1 and 19" wheels and another with 21" wheels but no AP, the non-AP car sells for more - yea, larger wheels are worth more to general public! You'd think the difference between AP and non-AP is greater than AP1 vs. AP2, and yet, when it comes to 3-4 year old cars, it makes little difference.
Think about this way, if you were going on a trip and renting a car, would you choose a 1 year old S75 or 3 year old P85D? If you chose the P85D, then why wouldn't you choose that for your garage as well if they were both the same price?
I think people attach some value to buying new (as do I btw), but if you choice was not new 75D vs P85D but a 1-year-old, uncorked S75D with Air and all the goodies, vs. 3 year old P85D, for the same money would you still choose a 1 year old S75D over 3 year old P85D?
You have very good points indeed but the thing is that, in case of new car versus 1-2 years old car, usually, the only advantage you have is that it is new.
Here, the thing is that you could expect a S85D to be better, albeit older, than a S75D. But with the performance upgrade, indeed, a S75D is simply a new S85D (in term of performance and autonomy).
Also, regarding the depreciation, there is a difference between selling a car after 5 years, with still 3 years to go of warranty on the battery / motor / transmission, which are the very costly elements, and a car with just 12 months remaining.
I don't think you can discard that as easily.
Just look at premium luxury cars like Audi, BMW or Mercedes, they all have lost between 60 and 70% of their value after 5 years. That is MASSIVE.
Why is that? Simply because people know that you can face major cost in maintenance and often prefer a less powerful / premium / equipped car just because it is newer.
Last point, I understand that AP2 is similar to AP1 at this stage. But do not foul yourself: with AP2,5 hardware, 8 cameras, 16 sensors which can be progressively activated, AP2 has huge potential to evolve whereas AP1 is basically done at this stage.
Tesla personal even said so in this Q&A in Neederlands that they will start activating additional cameras and sensor in the coming months.
So for me, the AP2 in a few years + new fascia + new interior will have a not negligible additional value.
I understand your point on the performance. For me, when you come from a 8s 0-100 kmh car to a 5-6s, the gain is substantial and may impact people decision greatly.
But where we are in sub 4,5s territory, we are speaking of performance that honestly are rarely used on open road and therefore are much less meaningful.
AP2 will probably never be as good as AP1. For starters it lacks a rain sensor. And my AP2 car can't see any cars in other lanes. It will also render a bus as two cars. I don't think the auto high beam is even close to be good enough to use either.
I would actually be happy to swap my car for a similar AP1 one. I won't own it for more than 2-3 years anyway so... And Tesla is already shipping upgraded hardware with new Model S being built now. Model 3 also gets better hardware. And no current Tesla will ever be able to drive on it's own. Not without a lidar it won't.
Sorry but Elon might be visionary but he's also full of crap sometimes .
I think you are dreaming if you think that AP2 does not have the potential to be as good if not better than AP1.
You are speaking of the current state where only one (or 2 ?) cameras are active and some of the ultrasonic sensors. There are 8 cameras built in in AP2 which let, at least in theory, clearly the potential for AP2 to be significantly better than AP1.
If side cameras and rear cameras would be active, you could easily cover incoming car in side lanes, risk of collision from behind, and plenty of other things.
Now, you change the subject about rain sensor and auto high beam, it seems that for Auto-Beam, opinions are divided according to post here in this forum. I retain my judgement for when I will receive my S75D but it does not seem to be absolutely clear that Auto-Beam is universally better for AP1. And, here again, it has the potential to improve on the contrary of AP1.
Anyway, yes, if OP only want to keep his car 2 or 3 years, I guess a 2 year old CPO is a very good option.
If he intends to keep it longer, he potentially faces big improvements on AP2, reach of out of warranty period and sinking resale value of an older pre-facelift version...
whitex
Well-Known Member
Agreed. The uncorked S75D is very close to S85D, except for some range and supercharging speed difference. As a side note, on paper the S75D has a greater range than P85D, however I will tell you from experience if driven the same, the P85D will likely go further - we have both and on few trips when driving together (one closely following the other), their Wh/m was practically the same, but the P85D has ~5KWhr more usable energy, so it would stand to reason it would go about 15 miles farther on full charge, if driven exactly the same on a trips.
That was exactly my point. The part that you didn't state is that while the 5 year old car loses 60-70% of it's value, it lost 50-60% of that during the first 3 years. Tesla "highest in the class" residual formula for 3 year residual is 50% of base price plus 40% of total options. This means if you pick up a 3 year old P85D for $80K, in 2 years it will be worth ~$60K. An $80K S75D will be probably be worth $50K in 2 years because it has to take-on the initial depreciation.
If that was true, everyone would be buying new Toyota Corolla's and such instead of used BMW's, Lexus or even used Camry. Some people prefer to buy the 20 year Lamborghini for the same price as they could get a brand new Honda Civic - the latter is as you put it "less powerful / premium / equipped car" but newer (by 20 years!).
Elon is a Tesla person and he said many things. Tesla sales people are Tesla people and they've said many things too. Not all of them came true, but even if most will, the reality still is that in 5 years, there will be AP4 or AP5, and AP2 will be worth about as much as AP1 is today. While to some people, such as yourself, it may add "significant value", to most it does not and in the pricing of used cars it is basically priced at $2,500 (original price) minus the same depreciation percentage as the rest of the car. EAP will be the same, $5K minus depreciation. FSD may be at best $3K minus depreciation, if it ever works. If you look at leases, that is exactly how the residual value is determined, EAP adds $2,000 to the residual value at the end of 3 years, that's it. If you somehow think that EAP will be worth so much more that everyone at the end of the lease will just buy it out to sell it privately at a large profit, you are in the minority and you are betting against banks, car leasing companies, and even Tesla thinking.
CAVEAT: If FSD on AP2 in fact turns out to be capable of driving at Level 5 - i.e. drive me 50 miles to the airport, drop me off, then come pick me up a week later, regardless of weather or traffic condition, that would be a major disruption which could make used Tesla's very valuable (they could drive 24/7 chauffeuring for you and your family and friends). The likelihood of that happening is extremely low.
I believe you. Value is always relative. Different people value different things at different prices. To some extra warranty is worth it, to others performance or other options. Some people pay $40K+ premium to get a P100D over S100D, while they may pass on the extended warranty for $4K. Those numbers by the way tell you that the performance is priced at 10x the price of added 4 years of warranty. Not everyone sees the value to buy a P100D, but those who do pay the premium. Same will apply to used Teslas.
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Interesting point. I obviously do not know and this is where real experience trumps spec sheet.
And here I disagree. This is CLEARLY not what happen in Europe at least. The S P85D was at 106k€. In France, with the ecological bonus, it was 101k. So even if you had the usual options (AP, pack winter, hifi sound, metal painting, leather…it was 12k€ of options so 113k€ in total.
But you cannot find any P85D in Europe for less than 95k€, 2 years old. It is a 15% depreciation in 2 years.
For the S 85D, it was 69k€ + 12k€ option = 71k€. There are no 2014 S85D below 65k€ in Europe so we are speaking of a 8% depreciation in 3 years.
Now, let’s take an Audi A7 (but the finding are the same on any BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar… premium car): an A7 3.0 biTDI that cost with standard options ~100k€. There are down at 35k€ after 3 years so a 64% depreciation and already 50-55k€ after just 2 years so 50%.
It is clear that depreciation of ICE premium cars is MUCH bigger than what Tesla is experiencing, in crazy proportion.
What you can see also is that “lower end” Tesla are not losing values that much because it is the entry point at Tesla. So they will still keep a good resale value. So I am not really sure than a 4 year old S75D in 4 years will be cheaper than a 7 year old S85D. At least, this is not what we are seeing currently.
This is not black or white. What I am saying is that having newer car has some advantages otherwise everyone, for a given budget, would purchase older but more powerful / better equipped / more premium cars.
Now, obviously, the difference is that a current S75D is AS luxurious, AS performant, AS good in term of range (almost at least it seems) and indeed (slightly) BETTER in term of interior / equipement / feature as a 1-2 year old slightly cheaper S85D / P85.
So given the choice, that seems for me at least a no brainer.
If compared to a P85D, this is another story.
But I am surprise about the price of CPO P85D at 72k$ from the OP as on Tesla website, there is none with AP under 80k$...
Surebut I don’t think it can be compared.
For instance, AP2,5 on current S75D is mostly AP2 with a slightly more powerful GPU. And those could be upgraded anyway if necessary.
The thing is that AP2 has already much more hardware with 8 cameras, 16 ultrasonic sensors and much more powerful GPU than AP1. So AP1 is stuck because the hardware is not here.
AP2 has only 20% of its hardware used today.
So yeah, we may see AP X or Y but there is no denying that AP2,5 has huge potential for improvement whereas AP1 has none.
Hard to tell as we don’t know exactly at what price cars are sold, they have different km and so on but I would bet that for the majority of people, everything else being equal, they would be willing to pay more than just 50% of 2500$ = 1250$ to get AP.
I get your point about the strict leasing residual value but for me, it is valued by buyers at more than that. Indeed, now, the option is 5000€ and the majority of people are taking it which means that people value it clearly higher.
Yes, but I don’t think you have to be so extreme than that for AP to be useful and there are huge margin of evolution between today and full Level 5.
Right. The difference is … crazy. But I would argue that the P100D is quite another beast still than the P85D but yeah, we come back to what I said: it depends if you value better resale value / newer design / better seats / potentially better AP (that can evolve) / security of a 4 years warranty versus going down from 4,4 to 3,4s on the 0-100.
And don't forget depreciation! I recently had to make the same decision as you, and I opted for the CPO 85D. It came with all the bells & whistles, including premium sound, premium lighting, air suspension, carbon fiber trim, sunroof/glass roof, 21" wheels, etc., etc.
It's a beautiful ride for $72k with 22k miles, and the original price for the vehicle was $107k. That's a 32% drop in price in 2 years, which mostly happened with mile 1. The CPO has a new car warranty, so I'm covered for another 4 years up to 72K miles. What's to think about?
And really, who needs Ludicrous? How often will you use it except to show off (or kill yourself)? Range is more important IMHO.
It's a beautiful ride for $72k with 22k miles, and the original price for the vehicle was $107k. That's a 32% drop in price in 2 years, which mostly happened with mile 1. The CPO has a new car warranty, so I'm covered for another 4 years up to 72K miles. What's to think about?
And really, who needs Ludicrous? How often will you use it except to show off (or kill yourself)? Range is more important IMHO.
The value of the USD against the EUR increased also which helped keeping depreciation in Europe down.
Swedish Tesla have quite a few CPO P85Ds for as low as 75k€.
85 kWh Performance Model S 5YJSA7H20FFP73940 | Tesla Sverige
85 kWh Performance Model S 5YJSA7H46FFP78352 | Tesla Sverige
Model S P85D 5YJSA7H49FFP75316 | Tesla Sverige
85 kWh Performance Model S 5YJSA8H27FFP71740 | Tesla Sverige
and some others...Begagnade bilar i lager | Tesla Sverige
Yeah, that seem really good prices for 2 years old P85D, with AP and all the right options (premium seats, air suspension, leather, hifi, ...).
The "issue" here is that, in Europe, Tesla was offering incredible leasing rate. Me and my father have got in June and August respectively leasing at 0,25% rate from Tesla. Now, it is up to 0,75% but it still makes it very attractive.
Financing 75k€ in normal bank at ~5% on 4 years for instance adds 8000€ of interests.
So it makes them more at 84k€ whereas a new 75D with the same options is 88k€ in France for instance (94k€ - 6k€ ecological bonus). Pretty good deal.
On my side, I was not able to finance a 75k€ car because it makes 1415€/month on 5 years.
On the other side, the 75D with a Tesla leasing is only 923€/month.
For many people, I guess this is quite a difference in term of financing and when keeping 5 years, the safety of the longer warranty..
whitex
Well-Known Member
Not sure how it works in Europe, but in US and Canada I have in the past leased cars with very low residuals (lowest ever I had was $157, where it the real value of the car at the end was ~$24,000) solely because a promotional lease rate was so much lower than a lease. Notice that a lease with $0 residual is practically a loan, with minor sales tax implications in the US (tax on interest with a lease, interest on tax with a loan, no difference unless the sales tax changes during the lease, or you move to a different location with a different sales tax rate). That, and with Tesla there is an additional problem with leases in the US because the bank pockets the $7,500 federal incentive if you end up buying the car out at the end of lease.
The dollar value on the other hand can make some really distorted views ofTesla depreciation. I know a person in Canada who bought a Model S in 2013, then traded it in almost 2 years later with near $0 depreciation! It doesn't mean the car didn't depreciate, it's just that the Canadian dollar lost so much during that period against the US dollar. Because Tesla's are so new there is a limited number of them. Combined with the fact that their new price is closed tied to the US dollar, and the volatility of currencies, this can happen. On the other hand, when the guy traded it in 2013 Tesla for a new 2015 one, the new one was so much more expensive for the same reason.
