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CPUC Nem 3.0 discussion as it relates to Energy Products

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Moderator
Nov 28, 2018
16,701
22,030
Riverside Co. CA
(moderator note)

There seems to be an extreme desire to discuss this in the tesla energy subforum, even though this is actually energy policy. After moving a few new threads to the existing discussion in energy policy subforum, I have decided to give in, and make a thread here for people who want to discuss this in this subform as well.

So, Have at it, but with the caveat that I will likely move anything that swerves into politics / politicians out. Please keep the discussion to the policy, ramifications for energy products, etc.

I dont have access to move posts back from energy policy subforum, so if those of you whose posts I moved want to re post them in this thread, even though we dont normally support cross posting, please go ahead.

Tagging @h2ofun , @holeydonut ,@yblaser ,@ucmndd for notification that this thread now exists in this subforum.
 
Last edited:

holeydonut

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jun 27, 2020
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East Bay NorCal
I honestly don't know how to comment on the latest CPUC NEM 3.0 proposal without bringing up politics. This new NEM 3.0 rule-set is set up to nuke residential solar installs. It's all political with very little basis on technology or rational trends in the marketplace. The only technology play I can see is how emergent ESS is now a mandatory pairing alongside new solar in NEM 3.0. Too bad the supply is bottlenecked.

The cost of a residential solar install is going to need to be like $2.00 per kW for a normal household to even sniff a break-even during the useful life of the system. Any amount of inefficiency (shading, orientation, tilt, ash from wildfires, etc) will wipe out a normal ROI. Like who all here has a perfectly unshaded 180 azimuth roof plane that can hold an array worth exactly 100% of annual consumption?

Anyone paying today's prices to eventually get a NEM 3.0 system is out of their mind. Like, if a new customer goes on Tesla's website right now to get solar, they better get in writing that the price of the system goes down 25% if the system isn't PTO'd in time to fall under NEM 2.0. Or they might as well wait until Tesla drops pricing when NEM 3.0 crushes residential solar demand.
 

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Moderator
Nov 28, 2018
16,701
22,030
Riverside Co. CA
Is the discussion in the thread in the energy policy subforum describing "the way its decided it is going to be" or is this "the way we are proposing, that still needs more approvals"?

I am not following it closely (or basically much at all, truth be told), but am unclear on if this is "the latest proposal" or "how its gonna be".
 

holeydonut

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jun 27, 2020
3,592
3,024
East Bay NorCal
Is the discussion in the thread in the energy policy subforum describing "the way its decided it is going to be" or is this "the way we are proposing, that still needs more approvals"?

I am not following it closely (or basically much at all, truth be told), but am unclear on if this is "the latest proposal" or "how its gonna be".

It’s looking terrible for anyone that isn’t taking kick backs from all the waste generated by the IOU’s.

A few months ago, Gonzalez put forward AB 1139 which would have basically handed the IOU’s the major tentpoles that they asked for in their joint filing NEM 3.0 proposal. Luckily this died in the House.

Fast forward to today and the allegedly “interested in the best of California residents” CPUC just published a 200+ page proposal that basically gives the IOU’s everything they asked for in their joint proposal and more.

So no, this isn’t the way it’s decided, but the groups that can influence the CPUC have so far failed. We need some tweets from Elon @CPUC members.
 
I am not following it closely (or basically much at all, truth be told), but am unclear on if this is "the latest proposal" or "how its gonna be".
I wouldn't call it the latest proposal, it is "the" proposal by the CPUC. There is a public comment period before the vote in January so it could change before then.
 

h2ofun

Active Member
Aug 11, 2020
4,000
1,006
auburn, ca
It’s looking terrible for anyone that isn’t taking kick backs from all the waste generated by the IOU’s.

A few months ago, Gonzalez put forward AB 1139 which would have basically handed the IOU’s the major tentpoles that they asked for in their joint filing NEM 3.0 proposal. Luckily this died in the House.

Fast forward to today and the allegedly “interested in the best of California residents” CPUC just published a 200+ page proposal that basically gives the IOU’s everything they asked for in their joint proposal and more.

So no, this isn’t the way it’s decided, but the groups that can influence the CPUC have so far failed. We need some tweets from Elon @CPUC members.
We are toast!! of all the proposals, the 8 bucks a kw is the final nail in the coffin! So much for all the money I spent to help the grid. Guess somehow I just became a rich SOB
 

h2ofun

Active Member
Aug 11, 2020
4,000
1,006
auburn, ca
I have been following my thread that was moved to other forum. Having 2 treads is not good.

Still cannot get an answer on is true up still happening, or are some going to monthly?

And what is happening with tou rates. Do we get residential for 15 years.

I feel bad for the folks I suggested lately get solar!
 

holeydonut

Active Member
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Jun 27, 2020
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East Bay NorCal
I have been following my thread that was moved to other forum. Having 2 treads is not good.

Still cannot get an answer on is true up still happening, or are some going to monthly?

And what is happening with tou rates. Do we get residential for 15 years.

I feel bad for the folks I suggested lately get solar!

The NEM true up of year-round credits and debits is still annual. They're just proposing that if a homeowner is on track for a big true-up then that homeowner will be asked to pay more each month to avoid a monster bill at the end. I think if you're a net generator, they will wait until the annual true up to pay you any credits owed to you.

TOU rates are a separate preceding. Those can change under NEM 3.0. What isn't changing under the proposed NEM 3.0 is that instead of getting export generation at the TOU rate, you're getting the Avoided Cost Calculator (ACC) rate. From what I gather, the ACC rate is not being locked in for the duration of NEM 3.0.

Your system will still have a positive ROI over the next 14 years... so it's not like your purchase is a terri-bad one. But PG&E sucks and is robbing you of long-term value after 14 years. Hopefully by then technology will advance to the point you can just shift your excess solar production to a dedicated off-grid setup to power some new tech that we don't know about today.

Worst case is you'll be removing solar panels that paid for themselves by 2030 off your roof in 14 years.
 
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sorka

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,867
8,041
Merced, CA
We are toast!! of all the proposals, the 8 bucks a kw is the final nail in the coffin! So much for all the money I spent to help the grid. Guess somehow I just became a rich SOB

Is there not a significant grandfather period for existing NEM 2.0 customers? Have you considered going off grid? The main issue I see is that powerwall failures might result in a long down time. Inverters shouldn't be an issue if you're willing to have spares on site. Might need a backup generator for the day or so the system is down due to an inverter swap.
 

sorka

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,867
8,041
Merced, CA
When will existing paired customers have to pay the $8/kw? I may very well upsize my system some, add a few more poweralls, and then go off grid. I already have enough but want a buffer. I did it for 2 weeks after the install in late October of last year so not so far off lowest production of the year.
 

Zorg

Active Member
Oct 24, 2017
2,387
2,262
Fremont, ca
There is a 15 year grandfather period for NEM 1 and 2.0 customers, from what I remember. The real issue, that nobody talks about, is that PGE prices are completely out of control. Winter prices are $0.25 and $0.28 per KWh (off peak/peak) in the winter under TOU-C (I may be off by a cent or two) and quite a bit more in the summer. That's also just for Tier 1. I'm guessing that the average customer pays about 30c per KWh on average over a year. This is completely out of whack with the rest of the country (except for Hawaii...). If PGE prices were in line with the rest of the country, the desire to go solar wouldn't be so great. Right now, solar plus PW generates electricity at $0.11-0.12 /KWh after incentives (if purchasing from Tesla) over 20 years. With that kind of delta between self generation cost and PGE bloated cost structure, solar growth was inevitable. CPUC apparently would rather stop residential competition than tell the IOU to get their house in order...
 
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Zorg

Active Member
Oct 24, 2017
2,387
2,262
Fremont, ca
When will existing paired customers have to pay the $8/kw? I may very well upsize my system some, add a few more poweralls, and then go off grid. I already have enough but want a buffer. I did it for 2 weeks after the install in late October of last year so not so far off lowest production of the year.
If NEM 3.0 comes to life as is, I can see how it would encourage some folks to do just that: upsize the solar panels, get PWs, and maybe a back up generator, and stay off grid.
 
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Reactions: sorka
When will existing paired customers have to pay the $8/kw? I may very well upsize my system some, add a few more poweralls, and then go off grid. I already have enough but want a buffer. I did it for 2 weeks after the install in late October of last year so not so far off lowest production of the year.

How will that allow you not having to pay $8/kw monthly fee?
 

sorka

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,867
8,041
Merced, CA
How will that allow you not having to pay $8/kw monthly fee?

I would terminate service with PG&E and have them remove the meter and put the blank in it's place.
Aready did this one one line of service although they didn't remove the meter, they just stopped charging me my minimum billable and told me that I start using it again they'll automatically resume service.
 

h2ofun

Active Member
Aug 11, 2020
4,000
1,006
auburn, ca
The NEM true up of year-round credits and debits is still annual. They're just proposing that if a homeowner is on track for a big true-up then that homeowner will be asked to pay more each month to avoid a monster bill at the end. I think if you're a net generator, they will wait until the annual true up to pay you any credits owed to you.

TOU rates are a separate preceding. Those can change under NEM 3.0. What isn't changing under the proposed NEM 3.0 is that instead of getting export generation at the TOU rate, you're getting the Avoided Cost Calculator (ACC) rate. From what I gather, the ACC rate is not being locked in for the duration of NEM 3.0.

Your system will still have a positive ROI over the next 14 years... so it's not like your purchase is a terri-bad one. But PG&E sucks and is robbing you of long-term value after 14 years. Hopefully by then technology will advance to the point you can just shift your excess solar production to a dedicated off-grid setup to power some new tech that we don't know about today.

Worst case is you'll be removing solar panels that paid for themselves by 2030 off your roof in 14 years.
I just read that the credit per KWh, starting NOW for everyone, would be like 5 cents per KW hour. Since we cannot make solar in the winter, I sure would consider resorting to the hack to just let me batteries charge from the grid and see what happens.

But the 240 per month just to have panels is NUTS!
 
When will existing paired customers have to pay the $8/kw? I may very well upsize my system some, add a few more poweralls, and then go off grid. I already have enough but want a buffer. I did it for 2 weeks after the install in late October of last year so not so far off lowest production of the year.
The problem is, I don't think you are allowed to be off grid, so good luck eliminating the $8/kw fee. If it were that easy, we all would do the same thing. I also do not think you can opt out of NEM, so I am pretty sure, anyone with solar will pay. I keep kicking myself for not purchasing a house 2 blocks away, not in PG&E territory.

My grandfathering will end in 5 years under the new proposal. On my older system, I have some bad panels, it may make more sense to remove rather than repair under the new rules. I also have less than ideal exposure, so that old system looks less and less attractive.
 

holeydonut

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jun 27, 2020
3,592
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East Bay NorCal
I just read that the credit per KWh, starting NOW for everyone, would be like 5 cents per KW hour. Since we cannot make solar in the winter, I sure would consider resorting to the hack to just let me batteries charge from the grid and see what happens.

But the 240 per month just to have panels is NUTS!

What will you do if PG&E includes your battery export potential in the system size fee? Another $200 a month for your Powerwalls…
 

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