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CPUC Nem 3.0 discussion as it relates to Energy Products

getakey

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Jan 28, 2020
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It was set to close in 2025 but within recent months legislature has been pushing to keep it open five years longer. Diablo Canyon produces 2,250MW, nearly 9% of California's electricity last year and ~15% of the state's clean energy production.

But as mentioned a couple posts ago, most of this will be covered. The California Energy Commission is planning 2,000-5,000 MW of offshore wind by 2030 and 25GW by 2045. Aside from this, increasing amounts of utility scale and residential combined solar PV + grid battery storage will continue to roll out for many years to come.
Diablo produces electricity 24/7/365. Will have to have a lot of grid storage to make up for that
 
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It was set to close in 2025 but within recent months legislature has been pushing to keep it open five years longer. Diablo Canyon produces 2,250MW, nearly 9% of California's electricity last year and ~15% of the state's clean energy production.

But as mentioned a couple posts ago, most of this will be covered. The California Energy Commission is planning 2,000-5,000 MW of offshore wind by 2030 and 25GW by 2045. Aside from this, increasing amounts of utility scale and residential combined solar PV + grid battery storage will continue to roll out for many years to come.
No zero emission nuclear plant should ever be allowed to close until we've closed each and every last carbon dioxide emitting coal and fossil gas power plant.
 

iPlug

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Sep 14, 2019
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Rocklin, CA
Diablo produces electricity 24/7/365. Will have to have a lot of grid storage to make up for that
Grid development is well on track to cover Diablo and then some.

No zero emission nuclear plant should ever be allowed to close until we've closed each and every last carbon dioxide emitting coal and fossil gas power plant.
Many thoughts here covered in other threads by others and economics a big part of things. I've contributed more than my fair share of thread topic drift here, so I'll try to defer.
 

getakey

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Grid development is well on track to cover Diablo and then some.


Many thoughts here covered in other threads by others and economics a big part of things. I've contributed more than my fair share of thread topic drift here, so I'll try to defer.
Well on track? I don't see much evidence of that. Sure would like to see it though
 
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iPlug

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Well on track? I don't see much evidence of that. Sure would like to see it though
Again, best to discuss in relevant threads over in the subform:
Energy, Environment, and Policy

Many examples, here is one:
The Edwards Sanborn Solar-plus-Storage facility in Kern County will total 755MW of solar PV alongside the battery energy storage when the second phase comes online over Q3 and Q4 2022 and Q3 2023. It combines both stand-alone battery storage and batteries which charge from the PV.
The first phase came online late last year, as reported by Energy-Storage.news, meaning 345 MW of PV and 1,505 MWh are already operational. The second phase will add 410MW of nameplate solar PV (358MW at the point of interconnection) and 1,786 MWh of battery storage.
The solar PV is expected to come online in Q4 2022 and the battery storage should be fully operational in Q3 2023.

Terra-Gen closes US$1 billion financing for second phase of world's largest solar-plus-storage project
 
Agree, you might be able to take advantage of current and future price arbitrage with a dual fuel system if economics are the primary driver and continue to pencil out.

NG historically has been cheap for many years. But with current and future forecast LNG prices/demand and US LNG exports increasing to meet that demand, that will likely squeeze US NG prices a lot over the next few years and the utilities will pass that on to us.


We were concerned about that possibility but in our case (PG&E) + home solar PV that proved to be far from the case:

PG&E 2021 electric power mix

en-powermix.png

....
So I took a look at the morning of January 26, 2021, when it nearly reached freezing at the San Jose Airport and almost certainly went below freezing where I am. CAISO supply for that morning shows around 2200 megawatts of nuclear, 5000 megawatts of renewables prior to the sun coming up, and 7000 megawatts of natural gas, ramping up to around 10000 megawatts around 7 am before solar started kicking in. There were also around 7000 megawatts of imports. The previous evening, natural gas was almost 11000 megawatts, the largest single source of energy, with imports at 9000 megawatts. Renewables were around 5000 megawatts. So on cold nights, there's no way we're getting that mix of power, and any incremental usage likely comes from natural gas peaker plants. If not, I can always adjust the thermostat to let the heat pump run at lower and lower temperatures if it is also cheaper to do so.
 

iPlug

Active Member
Sep 14, 2019
1,049
3,118
Rocklin, CA
So I took a look at the morning of January 26, 2021, when it nearly reached freezing at the San Jose Airport and almost certainly went below freezing where I am. CAISO supply for that morning shows around 2200 megawatts of nuclear, 5000 megawatts of renewables prior to the sun coming up, and 7000 megawatts of natural gas, ramping up to around 10000 megawatts around 7 am before solar started kicking in. There were also around 7000 megawatts of imports. The previous evening, natural gas was almost 11000 megawatts, the largest single source of energy, with imports at 9000 megawatts. Renewables were around 5000 megawatts. So on cold nights, there's no way we're getting that mix of power, and any incremental usage likely comes from natural gas peaker plants. If not, I can always adjust the thermostat to let the heat pump run at lower and lower temperatures if it is also cheaper to do so.
Hope you don't mind; fascinating topic but trying not to derail this thread; I responded in this thread:

Natural Gas vs Heat pumps for heating
 
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stopcrazypp

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Dec 8, 2007
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No zero emission nuclear plant should ever be allowed to close until we've closed each and every last carbon dioxide emitting coal and fossil gas power plant.
I don't think that necessarily makes sense, especially in reference to NG plants. Nuclear plants tend to be great baseload plants, but they are no replacement for NG peaker plants. I think we'll need NG peaker plants around for a long while even with all Nuclear plants shut down.
 
I don't think that necessarily makes sense, especially in reference to NG plants. Nuclear plants tend to be great baseload plants, but they are no replacement for NG peaker plants. I think we'll need NG peaker plants around for a long while even with all Nuclear plants shut down.
While that's true now, if the emphasis is on storage for renewables, and we have enough storage, all you have to do is set the nuclear plant to produce the average amount of power needed and then use the storage as a peaker plant, if the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing.
 
California already has over 2.4 GW of pumped storage capacity in just two projects: Castaic Power Plant - Wikipedia, Helms Pumped Storage Plant - Wikipedia. Batteries are great for quick response, but other technologies are capable of scaling more easily to really large numbers.
It only takes about 4-7 years to construct a pumped storage plant. I do not know of any in California that have begun construction. Eagle Crest was licensed in 2014 for 1300/MW but has yet to start contstruction. Apparently scaling even for pumped storage is an issue.
 
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gene

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Feb 11, 2013
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Santa Barbara, CA
I highly recommend this 30 minute podcast which will give you more reasons to hate SCE, PGE, and SDGE:

"Why do studies like these come to the wrong conclusion? For the simple reason that they ignore distributed generation (DG) solar and storage. Solar on the roofs of homes and businesses — especially when coupled with storage — provides less expensive, more reliable and safer electricity. But these DG systems reduce utility profits. So direct and indirect utility-sponsored research almost never considers the superior benefits of DG energy systems.

EVs are great for the environment, but only cheaper to operate if you charge smartly. If you are planning to buy an EV you should definitely charge your car at home, ideally from rooftop solar under full retail net metering. As a reminder to California residents, get that solar system installed soon before the transition to Net Metering 3 next year.

For more details on costs associated with EV charging, please tune in to this week’s Energy Show."

 
I highly recommend this 30 minute podcast which will give you more reasons to hate SCE, PGE, and SDGE:

"Why do studies like these come to the wrong conclusion? For the simple reason that they ignore distributed generation (DG) solar and storage. Solar on the roofs of homes and businesses — especially when coupled with storage — provides less expensive, more reliable and safer electricity. But these DG systems reduce utility profits. So direct and indirect utility-sponsored research almost never considers the superior benefits of DG energy systems.

EVs are great for the environment, but only cheaper to operate if you charge smartly. If you are planning to buy an EV you should definitely charge your car at home, ideally from rooftop solar under full retail net metering. As a reminder to California residents, get that solar system installed soon before the transition to Net Metering 3 next year.

For more details on costs associated with EV charging, please tune in to this week’s Energy Show."

I found a direct link in case that helps others. Have not listened yet…

Keep in mind that this is produced (or maybe just sponsored) by a company that does solar and battery installation. Some of the assertions on the page I link to below do not ring true to me. I have not found charging at public chargers to be more expensive than filling a car with gasoline (at least in California).

Repeating that I have not yet listened to the podcast.

 
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