The problem though, my first system was installed in 2010, and it cost 3x the amount my system in 2021 cost. I finally broke even with that first system, but now it needs repairs. I have 4 panels under performing or not working at all. Under the new changes, my grandfathering expires in 4.5 years. In 4.5 years, half my expected savings will be wiped out... At that point I have a decision to make, make the repairs, which will likely be in the thousands, or remove to save the PG&E fees. Is it worth keeping that system in operation, under the new rules, not likely. To recoup my repair costs could take another 5 years. By the time I break even, may need more repairs. Notice, CPUC and PG&E have not said anything about what solar owners pay to keep their systems operational. Its not a one time install, and savings forever. As it stands today, its worth fixing those panels, but I won't if these changes take affect. Now the big question is, will they even allow you to remove in the future. Am I stuck paying for a broken system forever? They control the interconnection agreement.I guess in some ways, the infrequent revisions of NEM couldn't fairly account for the rapid drop in cost of solar installs. If you halve the installation cost, you halve the payback period, and double the ROI (roughly). Installed per-watt costs dropped from $7.5/watt in 2010 to half that by 2014. Then from 2014 to present, by almost another 50% if you use Tesla's $2/watt pricing. This has made it more lopsided or less lopsided depending on what you paid and when you paid it.
The utilities have compensated a bit by flattening tiers and shifting TOU periods, but it doesn't overcome the drop in costs
The NEM3 propsal swings it back towards non-solar, perhaps too far, but who can predict whether future cost drops might swing it to a more equitable balance?
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CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion
- Thread starter jjrandorin
- Start date
Thats basically what I did in the last few years, plus the solar. Lots of money
RKCRLR
Active Member
To me, this should be pretty simple.
Charge an initial connection fee for Solar/Powerwall installs that covers the utilities' cost for supporting the install.
Charge a slightly higher monthly fee over the standard monthly connection fee proportional to the increased burden on the utility of being connected to a producer.
Charge a "storage" fee proportional to the utilities' storage cost when a producer "buys" its energy back. Self consumption behind the meter has no impact on the utilities' cost other than lost revenue. And if lost revenue is a justification for increased costs then the government should be encouraging people to use as much electricity as possible to reduce the lost revenue.
And don't try to get out of prior commitments.
Charge an initial connection fee for Solar/Powerwall installs that covers the utilities' cost for supporting the install.
Charge a slightly higher monthly fee over the standard monthly connection fee proportional to the increased burden on the utility of being connected to a producer.
Charge a "storage" fee proportional to the utilities' storage cost when a producer "buys" its energy back. Self consumption behind the meter has no impact on the utilities' cost other than lost revenue. And if lost revenue is a justification for increased costs then the government should be encouraging people to use as much electricity as possible to reduce the lost revenue.
And don't try to get out of prior commitments.
PG&E proposed an upwards of 45% increase to Natural Gas prices in the most populated inland zones over the next 5 years. You're kind of screwed no matter what at this time. Hopefully there are more off-grid modular-solutions that show up in the coming years.
yeah, true... They still have some life left, when they die will re-evaluate. I was looking to replace perfectly good gas appliances with electric thinking the long term savings was worth it. I guess the only real fix is, move out of PG&E territory, which is not likely at this point.
Here's a cool looking setup. Variable speed brushless motor that can be driven by an off-grid solar. Imagine if they found a way to integrate some form of ESS...
Edit, I am so stupid... I thought you said pool pump. You said pool heater. Lololol.
I am 2 blocks from being in Roseville Electric... If I could go back in time, would have made sure to find a house on the Roseville side of my neighborhood. At the time had no idea how corrupt and expensive PG&E was. Our first bill was shocking, we lived in Roseville before. Normal bill in Roseville was less than $40, first bill in Rocklin jumped to $350. We moved to a larger home, with pool, but once we started trying to cut the bill down, we realized the rates were double. The lowest we could ever get our bill was about $150. This is what got us interested in solar back in 2010.
charlesj
Active Member
Not to mention the utility provider is using all that cheap excess solar you give them while on vacation to sell at peak prices on top of that $80. Right.
skepticcyclist
Member
Fortunately for us SCE customers, SCE only does electricity. We have a separate gas company and a lot less expensive.
I predict that there will a NEM 4 within 2 years. NEM 3 is going to pretty much kill all new solar installs. That's pretty obvious. So, a couple years from now, the idiots at the CPUC will revise NEM 3 when they'll discover (shocker...) that new PV installs will have stopped.
For those of you who have been under NEM1/2 for a few years, you may consider adding another 1000W of solar panels before end of May 2022, as I believe that it restarts your NEM. For sure, if you're under NEM1, that will push you into NEM2 (that happened to me), and that should restart your 15 years grandfathered NEM. I haven't read the CPUC nonsense, so this is a personal opinion not based on actual facts.
For those of you who have been under NEM1/2 for a few years, you may consider adding another 1000W of solar panels before end of May 2022, as I believe that it restarts your NEM. For sure, if you're under NEM1, that will push you into NEM2 (that happened to me), and that should restart your 15 years grandfathered NEM. I haven't read the CPUC nonsense, so this is a personal opinion not based on actual facts.
If all the proposal items get approved, how will it impact when you sell your house down the road? I would think it will make the potential buyers to think twice about buying houses with solar systems since NEM 3 will be in effect. What's the cost to remove the solar system?
My solar project is pending installation permit now, hope to clear before EOY. Not sure when installation can start. It's been a long way to get to this point (replace my HVAC system and roof) but with the recent NEM 3 proposal, I have to ask myself should I go forward or cancel it and forget about solar. The uncertainty of cost saving is really making it difficult for me to make the right decision.
My solar project is pending installation permit now, hope to clear before EOY. Not sure when installation can start. It's been a long way to get to this point (replace my HVAC system and roof) but with the recent NEM 3 proposal, I have to ask myself should I go forward or cancel it and forget about solar. The uncertainty of cost saving is really making it difficult for me to make the right decision.
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Ironic that Utility PV skyrocketed the year after they successfully slit the throat of the Residential PV market...It doesn't seem like CPUC is taking into consideration that residential solar has capital costs, I don't think they really care whether it's $2/w now, or $4-8/w that current owners may have paid in the last 10 years. While I don't profess to know what the right balance of costs is for different ratepayers, the reality is that these measure would pretty much kill future solar installations, and then there will be no more new solar owners to "subsidize" non-solar users, or vice versa. Then making the fees here actually moot for new solar owners, as there wouldn't be any.
We can look at Nevada, they had the same arguments in 2015 “when non-solar residential customers are said to be subsidizing those without solar for using NV Energy’s grid.” They killed NEM outright, with no grandfathering, in 2015, and residential solar installs died within two years - so much so that they brought back a NEM successor in 2017. You can see the impact of both years in the graph:
Rules for Thee... Not Rules for Me...
RKCRLR
Active Member
FWIW, I tried calling the Governor's office and leaving a message but the mailbox is full....
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The proposed export & import tariffs are $0.06 vs $0.25. So you're still better off using energy than exporting it. Why add another bill? One of the best things I did was disconnect my gas service. Saves me $14/mo just in a service fees. Probably more in CA.
charlesj
Active Member
charlesj
Active Member
Boy, I hope they have plenty of expansion space for all of us moving up there.
RKCRLR
Active Member
As I remember, SMUD was even better...Boy, I hope they have plenty of expansion space for all of us moving up there.
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