TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
  1. TMC is currently READ ONLY.
    Click here for more info.

Crash Rates

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by EVNow, Jan 27, 2021.

  1. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    9,240
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    #1 EVNow, Jan 27, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2021
    Moving this discussion into a new thread.

    Here is the data from Cruise. L1 being severe and L4 being small dings etc. So, about 10k miles per "crash" or "error" in FSD terms. Thats about 1 per year of driving - and seems about right. I've to hunt for the original source document - but these are the figures I've in my spreadsheets (along with lots of other data I've gathered).

    Code:
    Crash Type   Miles
    L1           282,485
    L2+           99,404
    L3+           20,661
    L4+            9,218
    If we take 150k miles per even small dings - or more than 10 years of driving - that looks just wrong on the face of it. Just look around at all the cars - how many are a few years old and have dings ? Almost all of them. Ask yourself - how many times have you had small/big crashes in the last 10 years ?
     
    • Like x 2
  2. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    6,832
    Location:
    Terre Haute, IN USA
    I've driven ~20 years with only 1 real accident (losing control on icy road and going off the road, no other vehicles hit) and a couple of curb rashes. I've had some near misses though. But ultimately, that is anecdotal. Just because you've seen a lot of old cars with dings does not mean that the statistic is wrong. The stat is based on a larger sample.

    I won't quibble over the stats. I am just quoting what the article says. The 1 accident per 150k miles stat is for more than dings though.

    I would add that the article data and the Cruise data are not equivalent. Cruise data is looking at accidents by severity type. The article references accidents by "dings", "insurance claims", "police reports" and "injury crashes". So they are not using the same metrics at all.

    I can accept your Cruise data. My main point still stands that 1 intervention per 378 miles, as the other poster claimed, is definitely not good enough. It will not get you better than human safety.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  3. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    9,240
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ofcourse - 1 error per 378 miles won't fly. Per Cruise the current rates are 1 per 10k miles - so some 30 times better than that.

    Now - FSD "error" is probably a little different from the crash rates. Essentially crash is something that happens because of an error - but not all errors result in crashes. We have all had a lot of near crashes - you change the lane and someone honks. I don't know what that rate is - I'll look around. Most of this kind of solid data comes from SHRP - The Strategic Highway Research Program run at Virginia Tech Transportation Institute. See the attachment for one such report.

    Where AVs can really make a difference is by being attentive all the time. Something we can't do - and every time I've had any kind of crash (dings / tire scrapes and one rear-ending) - I've been inattentive / distracted. AVs can eliminate that.
     

    Attached Files:

    • Like x 1
  4. tsh2

    tsh2 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2019
    Messages:
    268
    Location:
    Cambridge, UK
    30 years driving (10-15k miles per year probably). Zero reported incidents. 2 minor moving contact (one from behind). 3 or 4 manoeuvring errors (half being selecting reverse rather than 1st gear, both hired vehicles). Maybe 10 near misses (didn't look/see, insufficient traction, etc), some of which had scope to be fatal. Maybe the last ones are interesting because they are mostly observational failures, and should count against FSD even if there is no trace of them in a human record. These are of course only the ones I noticed at the time and still remember well enough to count.

    Based on this, one minor (non crash) per 10k miles for an average human seems reasonable.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. KITT77

    KITT77 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2021
    Messages:
    5
    Location:
    California
    Daily I take the most dangerous freeway in America, the 99, and before that, Los Angeles' 5 freeway, I always had long 45 minute commutes to work. In my 28 years of driving, I had one major accident. I was sitting at an intersection and some lady plowed into me. Now I leave a good space in front of me at intersections and I leave the camera on -- thank God for the new update where, when the cameras go up on the screen on a model 3, the next turn in the directions move to the visualization screen on the left.

    Point is, people evolve and because people evolve, while some don't, some drivers almost never get into accidents. Just always got to be aware. People are looking for FSD so much to take over, like it has to be something else driving. I see the driver intervention part as important, and even a time frame to learn to work with AI to be a better overall driver. I do see a point in having it. I do believe it expands my field of awareness, but I'm also not the kind that lets autopilot "do its thing." I never stopped making changes to my defensive driving, so beyond curb rash, and with a little luck, you're good.
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC