I don't expect the competition to hit critical mass till 2022. By then model 3 will be in v2, with bugs shaken out, and other carmakers will have had a chance to iterate. Until then, I suspect S will reign.
I'm being lured in to early adoption at a steep surcharge. By 2022, cheaper/better should be everywhere. I suspect that's the sweet spot. If I enter before then, it's going to be emotional, not rational. OTOH, there are so many good reasons for this tech to be an exception to my normal early-adoption recalcitrance. This forum is a goldmine of temptation on that front....
Eric, I was attracted to Tesla because of the tech. I stayed for a lot of other reasons including:
1.
Safety. Model S may be the safest production car ever made. We lose more than 30,000 people to automobile crashes in the U.S. each year. How can anyone who could afford it have their family ride in anything less?
2.
Designed, owned, and manufactured in the U.S.A.. Almost all of the money spent buying the Model S stays here, helping Americans work for decent pay and, in turn, multiplying that money because they will spend most of it here.
3.
No subsidy (paying for oil) to the very countries who would like to see us fail. And that is on their good days. They wish us much worse on their bad days.
4.
No dealerships. Loss of value for new car sales to dealerships averages 8%.
5.
State level corruption. Ask your state senator or assemblyman if s/he voted to prevent direct sales of Teslas to consumers. Then ask if s/he received political brib, er, I mean "donations" from auto dealers (many of whom sell foreign made cars) earmarked for this anti-free enterprise, pro-restraint of trade law. Then ask if he/she believes it might be more efficient to simply provide state welfare money in order to support wealthy auto dealers, rather than have them take money from consumers without adding significant value. Then ask if your vote will count in the next election.
6.
Simplicity of design (reliability). Once you own a Tesla, ICE cars seem like Rube Goldberg devices, with radiators, fuel pump, pistons, valves, cams, crank shaft, spark plugs, timing chains, transmission (itself a tortuously complex, expensive to repair contraption), and exhaust system (to name but a few soon to be vestigial parts).
7.
Less polluting than cars burning gas, even if fossil fuels are used in power generation.
8.
Spacious storage capacity.
9.
Safety. Did I mention that the Tesla Model S may be the safest production car ever made? If there were no other reasons to buy one, that alone would be sufficient for me.
