Crossroads: Sell P3D- and Invest in TSLA?

[jjrandorin]

(Moderator note: OP this is a thread about investing in tesla. I feel it belongs in the TESLA section not the model 3 section:
Tesla, Inc. (tesla, the investment community, tech and related. The only thing "model 3" about this is that is the income source you want to know if you should use.

Posting this to give you an opportunity to comment on why it should not be in that section, or to agree it should be moved.)

 

[Saturday]

Actually I got it. Sell your car and buy an Idris.

 

[Spacep0d]

(Moderator note: OP this is a thread about investing in tesla. I feel it belongs in the TESLA section not the model 3 section:
Tesla, Inc. (tesla, the investment community, tech and related. The only thing "model 3" about this is that is the income source you want to know if you should use.

Posting this to give you an opportunity to comment on why it should not be in that section, or to agree it should be moved.)

Sure, mod, be my guest! Thanks

 

[Spacep0d]

Actually I got it. Sell your car and buy an Idris.

Haha, already have a Kraken Privateer in fhe hangar.

 

[jjrandorin]

Sure, mod, be my guest! Thanks

(mod note: Moved, thanks. Left a redirect in Model 3 forum for 2 days so people commenting can find it).

 

[pharwood]

If you are serious about investing for the long term buy some Bitcoin along with the Tesla shares.

 

[SageBrush]

This could not be any simpler in my single view. You have another car and you work from home. You are questioning the purchase and what you are getting out of it.

Yeah ... with some small print:

1. Covid is not forever; it fact it can probably measured in a few more months
2. That other car is not his

 

[kbecks13]

If you are serious about investing for the long term buy some Bitcoin along with the Tesla shares.

Not to get too far off topic, but i really agree with this lol just look at the future market cap of either Bitcoin or Tesla and ask yourself which has more room to grow in the future. This is why i say that you have to define what is "too high" and not simply think that Tesla will keep growing because that future growth is already priced in to today's stock price.

Bitcoin has a current market cap of $335B compared to gold (a similar 'store of value' type asset) which is at $8-9T. If you think Bitcoin could potentially replace gold as the new digital store of value, then it has 25x room to grow. Try doing something similar with Tesla and you find an answer that says Tesla has already exceeded any other peers that you'd benchmark with (i.e other automakers, solar companies or battery companies).

 

[holmgang]

Go to a finical adviser or
better yet an investment bank. Run this by them.
Sorry, early happy hour, got to buzz off.

....an investment bank courting retail investors with 20k of capital, contemplating selling a car for more....

right

 

[Mr X]

Define "too high". Many people say Tesla will be bigger and bigger in 10 years, but i'm not sure how you arrive at a target valuation. They already have a market cap larger than the biggest automakers and solar companies combined, so i personally wouldn't invest at these levels even though there is definitely some short term pressure.

I will probably be wrong, but i personally can't rationally determine a target market cap for TSLA that isn't much lower than where we're at today so i don't invest even though i absolutely love the car.

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1333064243227213825

Tech Stocks’ return in 10 years. 2010-2020

$TSLA: +8,197%
$NVDA: +3,789%
$NFLX: +1,699%
$AMZN: +1,700%
$ADBE: +1,561%
$APL: +934%
$MSFT: +749%
$GOOG: +505%

Tesla is just getting started. Now imagine the next 10 years.

 

[holmgang]

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1333064243227213825

Tech Stocks’ return in 10 years. 2010-2020



Tesla is just getting started. Now imagine the next 10 years.

"it's grown massively, even more so than other massively-grown stocks. that means it's just getting started and there's room for more".


inscrutable investment thesis.

 

[moa999]

^ Severe Winners bias there.
What about MySpace, Yahoo, Blackberry, Nokia, Lotus

Plus many others you probably haven't heard of.

 

[kbecks13]

Tech Stocks’ return in 10 years. 2010-2020

Tesla is just getting started. Now imagine the next 10 years.

This is the EXACT type of sentiment that make me run from Tesla, there is no actual discussion on valuation it's just "wow this a great company" with no regard for how much the current price already includes future growth and dreams.

So they're at the top of that list and by saying "imagine the next 10 years" it implies that they will continue on that trend - but what is the basis for that? How do you know today's price (and the massive % increase) doesn't already include the next 10 years assumptions with rose colored glasses that everything goes well?

I am clearly a value investor and i'm often wrong with these sorts of rapid growth/momentum stocks - just trying to explain why i personally don't want to touch Tesla at these prices even though i may miss some gains.

 

[SageBrush]

This is the EXACT type of sentiment that make me run from Tesla, there is no actual discussion on valuation

Why do you care how 'Mr X' values the company ? The only valuation that matters to you should be yours.

I'm a conservative investor so I decided to estimate the lower bound of gross profit as $20 per kWh battery.
I figure 500 GWh annual production within 5 years, so 500E6*20 gross profit
~ 500E6 active shares so $20 gross profit per share
Starting from P/E of 20 -> $400 share price

This is my moderate horizon floor. The ceiling is 5x higher, based on the entire battery production going to cars or retail battery storage.

 

[kbecks13]

Why do you care how 'Mr X' values the company ? The only valuation that matters to you should be yours.

It's the "when you get stock tips from your shoe shiner its time to sell" type mentality. When i see people flocking to buy a stock without a ton of rationale and more for FOMO, it's not a good signal. Look at PLTR over the last week or so, it's turned into a casino.

 

[SageBrush]

It's the "when you get stock tips from your shoe shiner its time to sell" type mentality.

That will certainly lead to bubbles, but I suggest you consider investing based on longer horizon valuation estimates. At a minimum, it will help you live life rather than stare at the daily stock chart. And you are a lot more likely to like the result in a decade or so.

 

[Tron 3]

"All that you hear is opinion", mine is I wish I had kept the '99 Dodge van 3 more years and put the $60K into the stock. I would be able to buy outright and have lots left. < Hindsight.

A friend invested 120K a bit over a year ago when it was in the 300's, Yeah, do the math. I was wringing my hands thinking "it's awfully expensive." 4 months ago I cashed in a 35k life insurance policy and bought at 1,500 a share (I was thinking exactly the same thing - "It's awfully expensive.") I am at 90.48% return now.

Look man, I'm a retired blue-collar and not smart enough to play the market, but I have followed this company for the better part of a decade which is the only reason I invested.
My opinion of the company and its potential is positive. My advice is to research, and follow your heart.

 

[Relativityboy]

1. If you're not going to use your car you should sell it
2. Invest the money in something, but spread the risk out. Tesla has already mooned. It might moon again, but there will be a dip. Checkout M1 Finance and buy a pie that meets your investment criteria there.
3. Get an e-bike. A long range something from RadCity.

 

[Spacep0d]

How about this one?

• Keep the car.
• Buy FSD.
• Let the car go work and earn the money on Tesla Network.
• Rebuild the house with money earned by Tesla Network.
• Use the car when needed.

Sounds crazy? But it really could be an idea, if you believe it will come true!
So this is my intention. I feel, you at this moment just follow your believes.

I think, when you bought the M3 P3D, it was the right choice at that moment. And now you are hesitating already about the choice you made that moment, because you suddenly believe the stock is the better choice? Why didn't you invest into stocks 4 month ago?

That looks to me like you are not really in long term choices. How you want to be able to keep those stocks for 5 to 10 years? And are you ready for an unexpected situation (Pregnancy, earthquick, unemployment, black monday stock drop)? Do you have some savings aside? I suggest to talk to your loved one and make the choice together.

I am in my 50th, I own some TSLA stocks and I am quiet happy with it. But I own them for very long already. And it never was money of my basic need level. The money I bought stocks was the money I was ready to loose. And a completelly loss would not influence my life style and personal situation.

So my advice: Do invest in stocks, but only the part of money that will not hurt you if you loose it.

Oh no, I would never allow a car that I own to be used for FSD/Robotaxis, and it'll be a while yet before this is reality. I know it's coming though, and I appreciate your out-of-the-box thinking and feedback.

It is true when I bought the car that it was the right choice then, but this was before I knew my long-term g/f would buy her own, in part due to my influence. Originally I was asking her to share one Tesla AWD LR to save money but she refused as she wasn't even sold on Tesla (for her) yet. She saw and experienced mine, saw the Supercharging, the smooth ride, the acceleration, and compared prices. She also test-drove the Model Y and 3 and loved the 3. So that too changes the calculus of the whole scenario.

At this point, I'm faced with the idea that I could have that money working for me in stock (and some of it liquid) and I plan to hold my stocks a long time. I can't go back in time to buy cheaper shares, but I can buy more with more money. This coupled with the pandemic means I don't drive much, and the driving I do could be done in her car (errands, short trips).

I think this pandemic will have us locked down well into 2021, so getting a head start on more stock investment seems like a good idea to me while I work-from-home and 'wait it out'.

 

[Spacep0d]

Sounds to me like you bought too much car (money wise) and you are hoping that TSLA will fix things for you.
How much depreciation are you going to lose, as a percentage of your purchase cost ? How quickly do you think TSLA is going to make it up ?

Presuming TSLA appreciation of over 10% annually is wishful thinking. Not that it cannot happen, just that it is gambling to presume it will be so.

The car will be paid-off in a week. I don't think it's too much car. It was going to be a Tesla no matter what. The only real difference was between a LR AWD or P3D- and I chose the unicorn for a 6k difference (minus accel boost which I would have purchased on day one).

Originally I wanted to share a Tesla with my g/f during the pandemic but she wasn't interested in Tesla until I got my car. Now that she has one, the factors have changed considering how little I'm driving during the pandemic.

As for TSLA, I never put a number on it but obviously I think it's going to grow...a LOT...in my time horizon of 10 years. I listen to a lot of investment talk around TSLA and I know from my own understanding why Tesla will be wildly successful in the future. They're just getting started. I also predicted the major rise in valuation/stock when it was at $400 pre-split. I couldn't invest then for a few reasons but my prediction was true because I saw the obvious patterns of unmet demand and customer interest.