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This is looking like a pretty serious tulip bubble. Obviously people who got in early and get out in time will do fine, but people getting in NOW?!?! Nope.

It depends on your perspective. You can look at the same thing from multiple angles and get different views. People have been saying it's a bubble since the beginning. It has had it's skeptics, just like Tesla has had it skeptics since inception and continues to do so.

I treat it more like a tech company AND a store of value than a form of currency (although I do believe it will become a everyday form at some point in the future). That's my perspective. The tech behind bitcoin/blockchain will absolutely disrupt so many industries, especially the federal reserve and banks as we know it. It's in it's early stages despite it's gaining popularity and big rise in value. However, it will continue to rise in value because as more and more people realize how disruptive this is, they buy into the vision and start to believe in crypto's and thus buy into bitcoin no matter how small or big your buy-in. Which is why I bought in now.

Much like how as more and more people experience driving a Tesla vehicle, they realize how much more amazing it is compared to traditional gasoline cars. How important it is we transition to a more sustainable form of transport. Then more people buy Tesla cars/electric cars and it grows and grows. Bitcoin/Ether is at the same level with such companies like Uber, Airbnb, Tesla, etc. All major major disruptors in their industries.

Remember that the market cap currently is only about 194 (rounded up) billion vs Gold at about 8 trillion (rounded up). The S&P 500 Market Cap is at about 23 Trillion (rounded up). Despite it's big value per coin at the moment, it's still small much like how Tesla is still small today compared to the rest of the automotive industry. Don't underestimate Bitcoin.
 
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With recent highs giving me 20x returns (I put in July 2016, 1/2 in btc, 1/2 in ether), I've now sold 75%. Simple diversification. But the 25% still in will be for longer term (unless massive appreciation happens again). Now I would like to take this "play money" and invest across other riskier assets. Thoughts on where to explore?

Have you researched ZenCash? Something to check into perhaps.
 
I'm not saying that cryptocurrencies are not the future.

But people whose opinion I respect in the crypto side of the tech industry are deeply unimpressed by the use of blockchain in the particular Bitcoin implementation and have pointed out a long series of technical design flaws which will render it unscalable. Some of which are already coming to pass. Likewise, economists I respect have pointed out major fundamental economic design flaws which will render it unusable as currency.

Short conclusion: Bitcoin won't disrupt anything. Might be worth keeping an eye on other system designs in case a competent one shows up, though.

Doesn't mean you can't make money on it, obviously; you can make money on any bubble. I prefer to own something representing an interest in physical production capacity.
 
All, if you're truly interested in Crytpcurrencies, look at it from this angle. Blockchain-based coins vs Non-Blockchain based. Research what are the disadvantages and advantages. After all that, see if you have come to the conclusion ...... IOTA. As of today, with all the cryptos out there, the only app we have to show for this truly disruptive technology is ..... breeding some kittens on Ethereum. Sad.
 
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breeding some kittens on Ethereum

LOL, I have been watching that unfold on Reddit. I think it's actually been a good network stressor and will be interesting to see how long it lasts and if scaling fixes get moved forward.


After my earlier grumbling in this thread, I have started doing research into the current market again. I did figure out that my few mined LTC from 2014 ended up on a HDD wallet that most likely got formatted at some later date. Ah well.

So I ordered a Nano S and bought some ETH via Coinbase. I might try to buy my 2nd batch in a dip if the CryptoKitties thing plays out poorly.

After all that, see if you have come to the conclusion ...... IOTA.

IOTA does look interesting, but I am going to wait for the wallet fixes. There are too many ways to lose your stuff right now (compromised seed generators, accidentally reusing addresses, etc) and I don't think I am smart enough to keep on top of that at this point.
 
Shame on me, I didn't do my homework on Bitcoins...
bitcoin is so reminiscent of the ponzi schemes that flashed through my college dorms 50 years ago.
They woudn't let me play because I wanted to put my name on the 2nd line. said i was "cheating" the system.
They also used marked cards at blackjack and poker, but thats a different story, and subsequently flunked out
 
BTC markets exchanges are failing or just halting trades. BTC price is all over the place with exchanges showing the price between 15,000 and 20,000 at varying times today on varying exchanges.

Any stable price history shows it more around the 15,000 to 17,000 range but there are way too many unconfirmed transactions and way too much price variation to know what the heck will come out of this...

FWIW I got my 3 per byte fee transaction confirmed by a miner, and since then have put out a new 7 per byte fee that is unconfirmed. TX fees are through the roof right now so I don't have any faith that my most recent tx will complete any time soon.

As I write this a tx fee below 140 per is likely to leave you hanging for several days at the least. 250 per would be a reasonably slow transaction, 280 per would be normal/fast, 300+ would pretty much guarantee first block.

If you take a 258 byte tx, a $16,000 BTC, then each 1 sat per byte fee = $0.04128. Making some example fees

* 7 x $0.04128 = $0.29
* 21 x $0.04128 = $0.87
* 42 x $0.04128 = $1.73
* 72 x $0.04128 = $2.97
* 140 x $0.04128 = $5.78
* 250 x $0.04128 = $10.32
* 280 x $0.04128 = $11.56
* 300 x $0.04128 = $12.38

Not exactly the cheapest way to send money.

If tx fees go back down this weekend and BTC is still north of 15,000 USD, I'll put in another transaction. No idea what tx fee I'll consider reasonable by then...
 
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Wow, Looks like Reddit is crashed, most likely over this.

The futures trading opens Dec 10th, so I am guessing this is all a crazy run up to that.

I am expecting a (fairly significant) correction once the futures markets are open. So I am not holding any BTC right now.
 
I am expecting a (fairly significant) correction once the futures markets are open. So I am not holding any BTC right now.
Same here. The hype around the opening of futures only seems to have pushed BTC higher. Regardless of whether or not BTC has a future, I believe it's going to come crashing down within weeks or months, simply because it's gone up too quickly.
 
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I have been watching this closely for a couple of months now. There are days where it goes up 40% and down 20%, but last night into today was absolutely bonkers. Basically 50% increase in 30 hours and a pull back of 30% in like an hour and recovered about half of that so far. I have a somewhat small chunk of money and im planning to exit in the next few weeks. The issue is that you can only sell about $15k a week worth on Coindesk without giving them a ton of personal information. At that point, its just a request for an increase which has to be approved. If I wasnt in a couple of months ago I wouldnt be in it today and I hope to be out in less then a month. Dont put anymore in that you would want to light a cigar with. Anyway, not an advice.

Best place to track the prices that I have found:

BitMEX | Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange

I would not trade on that site because its is even more bonkers, you can leverage up to 100x.

Does anyone have an idea of what is going to happen when you can buy futures contracts starting this Sunday? I get the feeling everyone thinks will be positive, but I think it could have a very negative impact on current prices. At least in the short term.

Edit: Oh, and good luck trying to sell when the price starts dropping like a stone. Sites like coindesk are just inaccessible. Its actually saves you money because it can have such big moves in just a few hours.
 
so is gold ponzi?

Econ 101 question what is money?
answer money is what money does.

as an engineer that seemed tautological, (ie, survival of the fittest, is that the fittest survive)

currency has a purpose, it does not need to fulfill anything but its purpose.
 
I think it depends on your perspective. I
I have been watching this closely for a couple of months now. There are days where it goes up 40% and down 20%, but last night into today was absolutely bonkers. Basically 50% increase in 30 hours and a pull back of 30% in like an hour and recovered about half of that so far. I have a somewhat small chunk of money and im planning to exit in the next few weeks. The issue is that you can only sell about $15k a week worth on Coindesk without giving them a ton of personal information. At that point, its just a request for an increase which has to be approved. If I wasnt in a couple of months ago I wouldnt be in it today and I hope to be out in less then a month. Dont put anymore in that you would want to light a cigar with. Anyway, not an advice.

Best place to track the prices that I have found:

BitMEX | Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange

I would not trade on that site because its is even more bonkers, you can leverage up to 100x.

Does anyone have an idea of what is going to happen when you can buy futures contracts starting this Sunday? I get the feeling everyone thinks will be positive, but I think it could have a very negative impact on current prices. At least in the short term.

Edit: Oh, and good luck trying to sell when the price starts dropping like a stone. Sites like coindesk are just inaccessible. Its actually saves you money because it can have such big moves in just a few hours.

I don't think the CBOE futures will have much impact. The CME futures the following week are more likely to have an impact in my opinion.

As far as what's going to happen, your guess is as good as mine. I've seen theories both positive and negative for the price that seem plausible. I've also seen speculation that the futures will help stabilize the price. So really, no one knows.