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Current cost of battery pack replacement?

Discussion in 'Model 3: Battery & Charging' started by Electron7, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. Electron7

    Electron7 New Member

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    Hi!,

    I am not currently an owner of a Tesla vehicle but I am looking into possibly buying one one day.
    I have been watching a lot of videos on YouTube regarding different aspects of ownership from the viewpoint of many owners and I was wondering one thing.

    Does anybody know or have information on what the life span and cost of replacement is for a Tesla battery pack.
    I have heard that there is an 8-year 100,000 mile warranty on it that Tesla offers but it isn't clear to me from the videos I've seen what the potential future replacement cost of the battery pack might be?

    Yesterday, I walked into the local Tesla store located in the Boca Town Center square mall here in Boca Raton, FL. and briefly spoke with a sales floor associate who informed me that the current replacement cost was $15,000 to replace the pack and that it was designed to last 20 years with the idea being that you would buy a new vehicle before you would need to replace your battery pack. He also said that this price was not likely to be reduced over time because as he put it 'it was a technology thing rather than a production thing'. Can anybody confirm this for me? What has been your experience?

    Thank you in advance for any information any of you can provide me with regarding this issue.
     
  2. Krash

    Krash Data Technician

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    #2 Krash, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
    Some new batteries are expected to last 500,000 miles. Future batteries are expected to go 1,000,000. Third party battery replacements run $10-25,000 with core exchange depending on capacity. I am surprised that a sales associate would quote $15,000. I am pretty sure that an out of warranty service center pack replacement would be more.

    It is an interesting side effect of having average battery life be longer than average car life, that when the cars are totaled the batteries are reused. Not always for cars as sometimes they get dismantled, but over time the replacement battery cost can only go down.

    This is part of the reason I bought a 75. I figured that the cost savings will buy a 100 pack or its successor 125ish pack when I am out of warranty after eight years of ownership.
     
  3. ZOMGVTEK

    ZOMGVTEK Member

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    The common number some people tossed around is 15K. The estimates put the cost to manufacture the LR pack in the M3 at around 13K, so 15K for out of warranty replacement sounds low. Nobody knows what the cost will be in the future, but its anticipated to be lower of course. This is largely meaningless speculation at this point, since the pack is most likely to last the life of the car for most people. Unless it outright fails, I wouldn't expect many people to pay for an out of warranty replacement even with huge degradation. With an 8 year warranty, the earliest one would expect to pay for a replacement would be 10+ years most likely. And by then, the value of the car would most likely be under 15K. So while you COULD pay to replace the battery, it would likely make a LOT more sense to buy a new car if you really needed the range. The new model would most likely be 2 generations or so newer and vastly superior.

    Unless you plan on crashing into stuff a lot and damaging the battery without insurance, I don't see out of warranty replacement costs being terribly important. Its uncommon for people to replace the pack in Leaf's out of warranty since the cost is double the value of the car. And those batteries are low capacity when new, as well as degrade quickly. The hope would be the degradation is low enough replacements are almost never going to happen outside of failures.
     
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  4. JulienW

    JulienW Active Member

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    The question MAY should be how much is is to replace the body and suspension AROUND the battery pack.:eek:
     
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  5. Knightshade

    Knightshade Well-Known Member

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    S/X cars came with an 8 year/unlimited mile warranty so barring things like salvage titles all of them ever made are still in warranty.

    The 3 is 8 years/120k miles for LR cars, 8 years/100k for SR... so I suspect 100% of those are also still in warranty.


    The 3 FWIW you can replace modules instead of the whole pack, and Elon Musk estimated that'd cost 5-7k

    Tesla Model 3 battery module replacements to cost $5k to $7k, says Elon Musk
     
  6. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    Tesla's guidance has consistently been that the cost of the pack is about a quarter of the cost of the car for most models.

    That doesn't mean they'd sell one to a consumer for that, but gives an idea for what's involved.

    The most likely source of an out of warranty replacement will be wrecked cars I'd think, and the cost will presumably continue to fall as the supply increases.
     
  7. COrocket

    COrocket Member

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    Do you usually keep your cars beyond 8 years? I haven’t seen anyone have to foot the bill for a battery replacement, since the first Model S debuted in 2012, so their 8 year/unlimited mile warranty should start to expire in 2020 for the very first ones. So we should know within the next few years.

    Elon has said recent battery packs should last around 300,000-500,000 miles on average. There are quite a few older Model S’s rolling around with over 100,000 miles. The way I see it, even in the worse case scenario with my battery failing right out of warranty at 120,001 miles and I replaced it for $15,000, it still wouldn’t break the economics of the car. I’ll save around $15,000 in gas vs driving a 20 MPG car 120,000 miles at $3/gallon. And if the battery does last 300,000-500,000 miles, this is still over 20 years of life from the car, at which point I’d probably be shopping for a new one anyway if car ownership is still a thing then.
     
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  8. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    Tesla's battery packs are effectively a RAID design. 70+ individual cells in parallel, each fused individually.

    If one cell shorts, the link pops, and the pack goes on, having lost ~1.5%.

    As long as you can replace the pack level bits like the contactors and BMS separately, you should never have to replace the pack for wear/degradation.
     
  9. ewoodrick

    ewoodrick Active Member

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    The reality of all the answers is, contrary to popular belief, it isn't an issue. You would have rebuilt, if not replaced an ICE a couple of times before the battery is expected EOL
     
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  10. MaryAnning3

    MaryAnning3 Supporting Member

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    I think the model 3 battery is composed of bricks. Each brick involves 46 cells in parallel, so that makes a 3.5 V, 230 ah battery, roughly. There are 96 of those bricks in series, if I remember correctly, which creates a voltage of about 340 volts*. The 96 are physically arranged into 4 modules, 2 of 23 bricks and 2 with 25 bricks.
    My feeling is that it is a pretty awesome battery design and the individual 2170 cells (each close to 3" long) are pretty state of the art (to state the obvious). I imagine if you take good care of it it will last a very long time. I think both the architecture and the individual cells are significantly superior to anything made previously.
     
  11. Rocky_H

    Rocky_H Active Member

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    You're asking about what the price of a piece of technology will be a decade into the future. I don't know how you can expect a very informative answer to that.

    I do plan to keep my car 20+ years, so I will probably be looking into a replacement pack someday, but the price will be such an unknown at that point, I'll just have to see how battery prices look in 10 or 15 years.
     
  12. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    The cost for a replacement Model 3 LR pack is $15k plus 4 hours of labor. But that is if your pack is physically damaged.

    Elon has said that you will be able to have the modules inside the pack replaced for $5-7k in the future when the degradation is too much and the pack is out of warranty.

    Elon Musk on Twitter

     

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