Current Delivery Times

[allegedskeptic]

and one march order

That March order is really a July order, since it was on hold until July. Let's not scare people into thinking there's an actual March order still unfulfilled

 

[CSTARZZ]

Houston we have a problem. For the first time ever, my delivery dates are missing.
Throughout the entire 10 weeks, the dates have been there. Now they are gone!

Maybe I called Tesla to many times, I’ve probably had at least 30 conversations with Tesla, about my vin and delivery date

 

[Mister_Greyman]

I feel attacked

Ahh, don't... I am right there with you refreshing away, twice when someone reports getting a VIN!

 

[CSTARZZ]

no!

It updated already, it moved my dates back further away, I am now seven days further away from getting my car than I was last Friday.

 

[Stephan Bogan]

Do you think that’s white Tesla remove my dates now from my profile?

Hard to tell because of limited data.

I have a general feel for this with almost 30 years in manufacturing / supply chain / logistics. From Electronics, to Aerospace to sister divisions in Auto and as an ERP/MRP systems consultant (including implementations and re-implementations).

I can make educated guesses on what I see happening with Tesla from my past experience, but Tesla manufacturing and their related Information Technology is somewhat of a black box.

From some posters data, including my own ... when the date range of start dates to end dates starts to shrink, and get's below 2 weeks a VIN is coming. We also see surprises out of the blue. And we know Tesla changes things up frequently as far as iterative design and manufacture.

EDDs missing can mean multiple things, I have theories but it'd be irresponsible to speculate on them with such little data.

I can say this, no matter what Tesla is doing - they have to be following some form / flavor of ERP/MRP / Master Production and Master Scheduling theory. As more data is available I can try to narrow down what style they are using but realistically and on a practical nature I feel the best thing for folks in the TMC Support Group is to chat, have fun, and not stress the volatility of EDDs.

 

[Hangover]

That March order is really a July order, since it was on hold until July. Let's not scare people into thinking there's an actual March order still unfulfilled

are you referring to @haferc order? his profile complete/hold release date says 3/30 in the tracker.

 

[jpy1980]

My EDD date just jumped up from 8/8-8/28 to 8/7-8/21 this morning. According to my distill.io plugin on Chrome, the changes always occur around 5:30am-6am PST. I hope this is a good sign!

 

[weebs11]

Those are called soft dates, they also move, nothing is set in stone at Tesla, until a Vin appears on your profile.

Well yeah, like I said, I'm sure they just automatically get a date that's 3-7 days before the date I see. It's meaningless.

 

[E30-4ME]

I got you - I was clarifying to @E30-4ME that it wasn't the J1772 adapter, which is all they would need to plug into from a chargepoint system. I think we just replied at the same exact time.

Thanks to you both - I'm clear now!

 

[allegedskeptic]

are you referring to @haferc order? his profile complete/hold release date says 3/30 in the tracker.

july 5. wanted to release it earlier but my sa said there was a chance i'd get the car before i got back to the states. didn't necessarily believe him but kept the hold regardless. alas.

Yes, they've mentioned in previous posts that their hold was released on July 5

 

[MBx4]

I feel like it would be better for all of us to get our delivery in california and drive back to east coast. That way we can enjoy a vacation, faster car delivery and also enjoying a long drive in new car.

Am in for that!!! lets do it? Would be so cool if we could together

 

[asierra02]

It updated already, it moved my dates back further away, I am now seven days further away from getting my car than I was last Friday.

i’m driving down when i get mine to buy you a drink. you deserve it!

 

[FatherTo1]

I feel like it would be better for all of us to get our delivery in california and drive back to east coast. That way we can enjoy a vacation, faster car delivery and also enjoying a long drive in new car.

I had the reverse idea. I should have selected an east coast service center in Q2, taken delivery, and drove it back to California. Tesla had just worked through the firmware holdup back then and it seemed east coast was getting flooded with deliveries while the rest of us in Tesla’s backyard were forced to wait it out.

Alas, demand is through the roof. Not a bad problem for a business to have.

 

[RowdyMY]

Just heard from my SA. Said both cars should arrive around the same time at the end of the month.

Maybe I missed it already - If you get them both available over the same, call it 3-day window, which will you take (and why)?

Also, if you're still taking bets, I always go for the underdog. Put me down for 5 on the LR - I'm good for it.

 

[Mpzona11]

Got in a test drive today in Rochester, NY and I’m officially hooked (not that I wasn’t before).

However this is making the wait even more unbearable after having another taste for the first time in a few years.

 

[Brad497]

In retrospect, I should have explored whether or not I could take delivery in California and then drive back to the Philly area. Seems like it could have shaved a few weeks off of my delivery, and what better way to enjoy a new Tesla than with a cross country road trip?

Only thing with that is you need the car registered whenever you pick it up at. I wanted to pick mine up in Chicago when it gets off the train but I can’t register it there

 

[CSTARZZ]

 

[allegedskeptic]

Same. I keep making up arbitrary dates for myself that have no basis in fact. I.e. "I bet I'll have the car by the time I have to go to that dentist appointment" or "I bet I'll have the car by my dog's next vet check-up". Then these dates come and go and I am just sad haha

 

[MMurrayGA]

careful we may be waiting so long we get model y 2.0 and then these accessories won't fit it....

I started to laugh at this until I realized it was true and got really sad...

 

[E30-4ME]

Econ/ stats person here. While yes this is a small sample size of people compared to 200k orders (expected) to be delivered this quarter - I look at all the data points and figure +\- 10 days (15-20 may be acceptable too) is enough to round out the standard deviation. Especially now that we have a second tracking sheet, when we get enough data if I’m still here Waiting I’ll run a regression model.

Fully agree, I think we can trend delivery timing +/- with the data. But do you think we have enough data to speculate on which variables drive differences in time between completed profile and VIN or delivery readiness? I feel like it's a pretty small sample for the number of variables involved.