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Current rates of atmospheric CO2 increase are not “natural”

Discussion in 'Australia & New Zealand' started by Vostok, Feb 25, 2019.

  1. Vostok

    Vostok Member

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    While not an ANZ specific topic, I just want to reference a post of mine in another TMC thread since the issue came up in this forum. It may be of interest to many.

    In the thread Australia government supports for EVs, I referenced research that the rate of atmospheric CO2 change is 50-100x faster than it has ever been over the past 800k years.

    Fo those interested, I was motivated to pull out the source CO2 data going back to 800k BC and analyse it myself.

    The results confirmed that this statement is indeed true - in recent years the rate of CO2 increase is around 50x faster that it has ever been over the past 800k years, with spikes above that. My results are posted in this TMC thread:
    Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

    What’s also interesting is that this acceleration started in the late 1700s, coincidental with the commencement of the industrial revolution. Prior to that the CO2 cycles up and down almost always lay in the range of -46 to +49 parts per billion per annum (ppb/pa). That sets the definition of “natural” variation, and anything outside that is demonstrably not “natural”. We are now seeing CO2 increase at annual rates of 3000 ppb/pa and higher.

    Be very, very concerned.
     
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  2. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    Only technology can save us ... our governments certainly can't.

    $20 solar panels and $500 powerwalls solves the problem.

    Of course, our governments could get us their faster by incentives and taxing carbon, but that would be sensible and unpopular.
     
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  3. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    Absolutely, everyone needs to install solar and power walls. They won't do it, and unfortunately we all die, no matter that I have 11 kw of solar and three powerwalls. Their line that they "can't afford it" while buying a new 60 inch TV set and 8 channel video recorder prove that Darwin was right. Or that God was right.
     
  4. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    The tragedy is that often it's cheaper to do it than not.
    Eg my father added a 5kW system to his roof, and it's cutting about $1000/yr off his power bills.
    The system cost $5000 to install (all AUD). If you amortise that over 25 years it's $200/yr.

    So the $5000 investment is returning $800/yr, which is a 16% return.

    In other words, every person (at least in Australia) with a house and normal power usage is wasting money if they don't get rooftop solar, even if they borrow the cost on finance, so long as the finance rate is < 16%.
     
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  5. JayTee

    JayTee Member

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    I had a 8kw Solar system installed last year and so far on track to save about $2500 per year giving a 4 year payback.
    Have looked into the powerwalls but at 10k and about a 10 year payback when the warranty/expected lifetime is only about 10 years it just dosent make sense from purely a financial standpoint to get batteries.

    Once they drop to about 6k over time or with a govt subsidy ill jump onboard.

    I do wish I went bigger on the Solar system though now that I have since purchased the Model S and am charging from home. I have a big roof and 3 phase power so couldve gone with a 15kw system so will probably add another 7kw system.
     
  6. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    Agreed, powerwall not necessary yet.
    The solar panels are easily worth it, and you can sell back your unused power which makes someone else save some coal on your behalf too.
     
  7. Dborn

    Dborn Confirmed

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    • Disagree x 1
  8. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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  9. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    Mandating cleaner technology is way better for the environment than taxing polluters. A massive fine can then apply, so poor performers shut down.
     
  10. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    My system is 14 months old, and has already recovered half that. No regard to finance costs though.
     
  11. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    Taxing/pricing carbon is better than regulating, because it touches every element of production perfectly in proportion to its carbon footprint.
    Regulating is good, but it’s coarser because there are only so many categories and subcategories you can legislate for.
    Carbon pricing can also be adjusted and finessed in real time, whereas regulation has to be revised.
    To make it palatable I think it’s best to make it revenue-neutral, and reduce other taxes by the exact amount. This causes behaviour change with no cost.
     
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  12. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    And you trust a politician to get it neutral and not see it as a way to spend more on stupidity?
    Think Gst, the tax to replace all taxes...other than fuel levy, luxury car tax....and more (chose those two as this is a car forum)
    But carbon tax already exists in the commercial building sector. Buildings have to get a beec certificate and nabers rating. The annual government charge is approx $3-4000. There is no requirment to make you building better. Its just a big bad tax that is passed on to the end consumer. It is a sub-category of a category, and isnt effective. The tax goes into general revenue.
     
  13. Blue heaven

    Blue heaven Fair Dinkum Tesla

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    I had the same consideration as you in some way, I looked at the Powerwall 2 being a 10 year pay back but I was keen to find a way to make it work, I have no right to tell anyone that electric cars and renewable energy is a better way forward unless I'm actually using that method, to further justify the outlay I considered the PW2 would still operate effectively after the warranty period and the grid failure back up provided added value. Despite WA Tesla energy's appalling communication skills and drawn out wait the PW2 has been a fantastic purchase, Even running everything from electricity including car charging and Spa heating I'm confident the payback period is 7 years, as grid power is sure to increase 2-3% every year for the foreseeable future the value is even better.
    In saying that keep in mind that despite Western Australia having extremely cheap solar per kw of installed capacity the power grid will not pay any feed in tariff if you go over 5kw, they'll happily take it though!
     
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  14. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    That speaks to my point. Regulation is always clumsy, because there are just too many things to regulate. It often penalises the wrong people, loopholes can be found, gets out of date, isn't technology-agnostic etc etc.

    A simple carbon price adds cost to every item or activity in the exact proportion to the carbon footprint of that item. Because the cost is spread over the entire economy it is gentle to any one part, and can be scaled very very slowly to prevent sudden impacts.

    For example, if carbon had a price:
    • the cost of buildings would change depending on their materials, down to the last nail or strip of carpet. At every level it would be cheaper (and more likely to happen) to use the less carbon-intensive alternative
    • an electric company could make more profit if they sold electricity generate by solar
    • people would get higher energy bills and be more inclined to insulate, add rooftop solar, use less power
    • the products of businesses that needed less carbon would gain a competitive advantage
    • plastic bags would be more expensive, re-usables would be a better proposition
    Basically in every aspect (literally every) we would be incentived to do what we should be doing, and penalised for what we shouldn't be doing. And the slope of the incentive can be calibrated precisely, and tilted more and more over time.

    And the beauty is that the net cost can be zero, if the revenue raised is put against budget items like defense or medicare, which we all pay for already. Obviously this is where a trustworthy government would come in handy, and I agree with you that those seem annoyingly rare, but it could be done.
     
  15. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    This is what gets my goat. By what right do they do this? How lame is the WA government not to have a law that says "You are welcome to sell electricity in our state, but if your customer produces electricity you must buy it all at a fair price."
    Done. Maybe I should run for premier? Would I need to move?
     
  16. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    I’m with you, there should be a mandated minimum price for micro generators (households), and a requirment to buy all power that the generator chooses to export. You can stay in Sydney and lead WA if we can have the NZ prime minister to lead australia. She can of course stay in NZ.
     
  17. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    We'd be lucky to have her.
    I'm not looking forward to this election. The libs have become a bunch of coal-loving rednecks, but Bill Shorten gives me the heebie jeebies.
    Ah, decisions decisions...
     
  18. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    Yes agree. Neither deserve to govern. If the population agree we will end up with a hung parliament, and then some wacko will end up effectively controlling the country.
     
  19. Blue heaven

    Blue heaven Fair Dinkum Tesla

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    As a matter of fact you could very well be predicting the NSW election outcome.
     

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