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Custom Orders for S/X show 3 month wait for delivery now...is a big change coming soon?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by ipconfig, Sep 8, 2017.

  1. ipconfig

    ipconfig New Member

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    Just looked at the custom order configurator for both Model S/X and it's now showing delivery estimates of November. Just last week it was showing Late September delivery, and earlier this week it was showing Late October delivery. Is Tesla really getting that many new orders all the sudden or are they delaying the schedule to reflect a production change? I'm not familiar with exactly what's happen with the past big changes (new packs, Dual-motor, AP2, etc...) so I don't know if a sudden increase in delivery wait time is normal before a big design change. Also, there was that recent discount on 100 kWh packs even though Tesla had no reason to stimulate new orders since they already had a queue well into the next quarter.
     
  2. vandacca

    vandacca ReActive Member

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    There may be two factors involved:
    (a) The regular production shift from North American deliveries to over-seas deliveries
    (b) The possibility of new hardware being implemented.
     
  3. jlund

    jlund Member

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    And a third new factor. Even if lines are separated completely at Fremont, tesla are in production hell with floor space, staff, and machinery being used for model 3 ramp up.
     
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  4. outie

    outie Active Member

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    This is a very typical situation @ Tesla, major hardware changes or not.

    For example, when I ordered last year in July, the estimated delivery was Late-Sept. It was pretty much all Late-Sept up until orders placed around end of August. They produce US-delivery cars toward the end of quarter as @vandacca indicated. So for custom US order, the wait time is typically 1 quarter or less (3 months).

    Of course major changes are always on the way. Good luck timing it.
     
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  5. boaterva

    boaterva Supporting Member

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    Yeah, I think it's the usual EOQ scheduling. At least those of us that snuck in at the end of Q3 hope so. :D
     
  6. Brando

    Brando Member

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    Yes, November follows October and seems you answered your own question - give a $5,000 discount on 100 kWh battery packs and someone will buy. Some call it elasticity in price/demand curve.
     
  7. eternal

    eternal Member

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    if you look at the inventory online, its drying up. Tesla's website itself has even less showing up on their site. More signs pointing to some type of update (i.e. 85kwh battery) or something else. Seems too soon given the 2 price changes they have made to decrease the price by 6500 in addition to AP2.5, 7 seater changes. But for all we know they are going for a huge Q4 to end the year.
     
  8. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    #8 vgrinshpun, Sep 10, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2017
    (a) is not given any more. Geographic batching to maximize quantity of cars built within a quarter to be delivered within the same quarter yields heavily back-loaded deliveries across all regions, with majority of all deliveries happening in the last month of a quarter. With a (planned) steep ramp up of Model 3 in Q4 Tesla is unlikely to continue this practice as it will be logistically difficult to deliver majority of Model X/S and Model 3 in December. Tesla is likely to move away from this extreme geographic batching and to an allocation of production capacity proportionate to the rate of the incoming orders.
     
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  9. avesraggiana

    avesraggiana Member

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    Is there a Model X ordering and delivery spreadsheet on Google Sheets as there is for the Model X? And if so, would someone be kind enough to post a link? Thanks.
     
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  10. Grassright

    Grassright Member

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    Is is a good time to order an MX now? Or should I wait for a few weeks? Had a feeeling something is coming...
     
  11. CarbonFree

    CarbonFree Member

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    #11 CarbonFree, Oct 7, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2017
    The keyfob shortage and phase out of the referral discount point to either a refresh or unexpectedly high sales. Last quarter's numbers were down for the S, year over year, however, but up for the X. There are also the massive showroom discounts to consider.

    They may want to retool the production line while Model 3 volumes are still small. At the very least I would expect the Intel MCU, possibly the 3's new vent system. There's a chance they will still switch to the newer battery chemistry (despite Elon's tweets).

    When will this happen? That's the tricky bit.
     
  12. avesraggiana

    avesraggiana Member

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    I’m wondering the same thing and I’m dithering. My Model X order finalises tomorrow. I’m going to tie myself in knots tonight wondering if I should cancel it, get my deposit back, and order later in the quarter.
     
  13. avesraggiana

    avesraggiana Member

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    I was actually thinking about cancelling my order before my deadline tomorrow. If I cancel after, I forfeit my $2500 deposit. Decisions, decisions, that have to be made by midnight tonight.
     
  14. MarkDFW

    MarkDFW Member

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    Honestly with Model3 production ramp happening, Tesla Semi announcement happening and more and more energy projects rolling out I can’t imagine any major changes on S/X anytime soon. I would think major changes would wait until middle of next year when it becomes actually possible to decide to buy a model 3. Until late next year anyone who decides to buy a tesla fresh will have a 1+ year wait for a Model 3 so will need to consider S or X. Once that wait period is down to a few months no need to radically change S or X.
     
  15. AdamHLG

    AdamHLG Member

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    My MX deposit forfeit and penalty deadline was yesterday. I didn't cancel or change a thing. Like I told my kids many years ago: "you get what you get and you don't get upset.". Guess what? Hardware is going to change. If not tomorrow, in a week. Or a month. Or 3 months.

    I'll keep this car 4 or 5 years. By then, FSD will finally enter beta, we will have Spotify in America, fans will rave about the browser speed, and Toshiba's “titanium niobium oxide” anode battery will give us 500 miles on a 10 minute charge.

    I'll worry about it then. Let them work on that stuff. I'm gonna love what I get today and not worry about what I don't yet have tomorrow.
     
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  16. DougH

    DougH Active Member

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    Says early Dec, seems like the normal wait time. And I cannot see Tesla making any changes to S or X with all the other stuff going on. Focus seems to be on 3.
     
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  17. avesraggiana

    avesraggiana Member

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    Good point! Enough of the hand wringing already. Did your expected delivery time change after your order was confirmed?
     
  18. CarbonFree

    CarbonFree Member

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    In now "December" (no "early") and that timeframe also holds for cars confirmed in mid-September.

    There's a chance a refresh was planned to mitigate loss of orders due to customers waiting on the sidelines. Remember, at one point Tesla flat out refused to give sales guidance for all of H2 2017, fearing weird Model 3 effects. Sales seem good now, so they might have pushed back the refresh. Or they're going to go ahead with some kind of battery change as Panasonic's S and X battery contract is expiring at the end of the year.

    Fundamentally, Tesla wants to keep the S and X as premium vehicles, and that isn't compatible with an obsolete MCU, smaller screen, out of date AC, no interior camera, less range than the M3, no wallet or smartphone Bluetooth proximity keys, etc.
     
  19. outie

    outie Active Member

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    What? Didn't you say there are major changes by the end of the year from your source?

     
  20. T3xrr

    T3xrr Member

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    I think you made a good choice. I too was on the fence and my vehicle just hit production. Since I'm keeping my car for a long time, I'll be happy and trade in eventually. Too many changes and waiting can really drive the fun out of owning one.
     

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