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Custom Orders for S/X show 3 month wait for delivery now...is a big change coming soon?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by ipconfig, Sep 8, 2017.

  1. ipconfig

    ipconfig New Member

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    Just looked at the custom order configurator for both Model S/X and it's now showing delivery estimates of November. Just last week it was showing Late September delivery, and earlier this week it was showing Late October delivery. Is Tesla really getting that many new orders all the sudden or are they delaying the schedule to reflect a production change? I'm not familiar with exactly what's happen with the past big changes (new packs, Dual-motor, AP2, etc...) so I don't know if a sudden increase in delivery wait time is normal before a big design change. Also, there was that recent discount on 100 kWh packs even though Tesla had no reason to stimulate new orders since they already had a queue well into the next quarter.
     
  2. vandacca

    vandacca ReActive Member

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    There may be two factors involved:
    (a) The regular production shift from North American deliveries to over-seas deliveries
    (b) The possibility of new hardware being implemented.
     
  3. jlund

    jlund Member

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    And a third new factor. Even if lines are separated completely at Fremont, tesla are in production hell with floor space, staff, and machinery being used for model 3 ramp up.
     
  4. outie

    outie Active Member

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    This is a very typical situation @ Tesla, major hardware changes or not.

    For example, when I ordered last year in July, the estimated delivery was Late-Sept. It was pretty much all Late-Sept up until orders placed around end of August. They produce US-delivery cars toward the end of quarter as @vandacca indicated. So for custom US order, the wait time is typically 1 quarter or less (3 months).

    Of course major changes are always on the way. Good luck timing it.
     
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  5. boaterva

    boaterva Supporting Member

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    Yeah, I think it's the usual EOQ scheduling. At least those of us that snuck in at the end of Q3 hope so. :D
     
  6. Brando

    Brando Member

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    Yes, November follows October and seems you answered your own question - give a $5,000 discount on 100 kWh battery packs and someone will buy. Some call it elasticity in price/demand curve.
     
  7. eternal

    eternal Member

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    if you look at the inventory online, its drying up. Tesla's website itself has even less showing up on their site. More signs pointing to some type of update (i.e. 85kwh battery) or something else. Seems too soon given the 2 price changes they have made to decrease the price by 6500 in addition to AP2.5, 7 seater changes. But for all we know they are going for a huge Q4 to end the year.
     
  8. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    #8 vgrinshpun, Sep 10, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2017
    (a) is not given any more. Geographic batching to maximize quantity of cars built within a quarter to be delivered within the same quarter yields heavily back-loaded deliveries across all regions, with majority of all deliveries happening in the last month of a quarter. With a (planned) steep ramp up of Model 3 in Q4 Tesla is unlikely to continue this practice as it will be logistically difficult to deliver majority of Model X/S and Model 3 in December. Tesla is likely to move away from this extreme geographic batching and to an allocation of production capacity proportionate to the rate of the incoming orders.
     
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