Customer Deposits Poll

[ValueAnalyst]

UPON POPULAR REQUEST!!! *

Ladieeeeesssssss aaaaannnnndddd gentlemen....

I present to you.... the mother of all polls... the poll that polls the other polls (it's true; think about it)

This is the day... we start... counting... ttthhheeeeeeeeee.....

$$$ BILLIONS $$$

*one person requested it.

 

[Starno]

Damn you like polls ...lol

 

[schonelucht]

Interesting poll. Just for reference from the latest quarterly report

As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, we held $686.1 million and $ 663.9 million, respectively, in customer deposits.

My guess : around $700M after increases to account for S/X and 3 backlog. 5000 semis each before/after reservation price increase, or $125M total. 600 Roadster founder's edition for $150M and 3000 regular Roadsters for $150M. So $1.125B for a $425M positive cash flow.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Interesting poll. Just for reference from the latest quarterly report

Yes - I should have included the latest figure. Thank you for posting that.

My guess : around $700M after increases to account for S/X and 3 backlog. 5000 semis each before/after reservation price increase, or $125M total. 600 Roadster founder's edition for $150M and 3000 regular Roadsters for $150M. So $1.125B for a $425M positive cash flow.

Thank you for sharing the components. I agree that S/X/3 backlog will increase in 4Q17, but I expect Founders to sell out for both Roadster and Semi in 4Q17 for different reasons: The demand/interest in Roadster seems to be surprisingly high, and the Year 1 value proposition of the Semi is significantly higher than the opportunity cost of $150k cash layout one to two years before competitors.

I expect Roadster and Semi reservations to continue to grow throughout 2018, but for December 31, I voted $1.0 Billion to $1.5 Billion, and expect closer to higher end of that range.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Is there any other company in the world with that many customer deposits? Any?


For products that will be delivered some time many months from now. Many being 6-30.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is there any other company in the world with that many customer deposits? Any?


For products that will be delivered some time many months from now. Many being 6-30.

I am not aware of any other consumer goods company in history with this level of customer deposits.

 

[schonelucht]

and the Year 1 value proposition of the Semi is significantly higher than the opportunity cost of $150k cash layout one to two years before competitors.

There will be just 1000 Founder Semis. At the scale of the companies we know are ordering Semi's, it won't make any competitive difference to have a few Founders or not. So my guess is they'll order a few regular ones, evaluate them and then decide to go all in (or not).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

There will be just 1000 Founder Semis. At the scale of the companies we know are ordering Semi's, it won't make any competitive difference to have a few Founders or not. So my guess is they'll order a few regular ones, evaluate them and then decide to go all in (or not).

The companies you referred to comprise less than 5% of the Class 8 market, which is highly fragmented. 90% of the market is comprised of small fleets of 6 trucks or less. $30,000+ in annual fuel/maintenance savings will appeal to these folks, who will not be issuing press releases.

 

[schonelucht]

90% of the market is comprised of small fleets of 6 trucks or less. $30,000+ in annual fuel/maintenance savings will appeal to these folks, who will not be issuing press releases.

They'll also not have the cash lying around to buy into a Founder's Semi.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

They'll also not have the cash lying around to buy into a Founder's Semi.

Likely true statement for the majority of potential buyers, but 1,000 out of 350,000 owner-operators?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Predicting $1.2B to $1.3B and hoping for $1.5B+

This may be the item that surprises bears.

 

[schonelucht]

Turns out the surprise is for the bulls.

 

[Mich]

Customer deposits 853,919

so 77% of this poll are wrong...

there are about 500 000 M3 reservation holders, some MS and MX beeing paid and billed. So not much left for Roadster and Semi... Any thoughts?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

so 77% of this poll are wrong...

there are about 500 000 M3 reservation holders, some MS and MX beeing paid and billed. So not much left for Roadster and Semi... Any thoughts?

1. The large deposits amounts are deterring potential buyers (versus Model 3's $1,000); and
2. People are calling bullshit on Elon's predictions for Semi/Roadster.

Two possible explanations, but there probably are more...

 

[schonelucht]

$853M in the end or an increase of $167M. I think it is safe to say that we didn't get a lot of Model 3 new net orders. That's ok, Tesla has enough already. But likely not a lot of semi reservations either beyond those that were in the news. That makes me suspect Tesla Semis' orders were not real commitments from those firms but rather grabbing the news headlines for some free publicity. For the roadster you are possibly right : just too expensive to have the orders lining up. I suspect many that put a cheque in to get a ride on reveal day requested a refund once the halo of that night wore off and they came to their senses of what it means to tie that amount of money up in a car you barely know about?

 

[BETA1019]

This should remind us of the bias we seem to have within this community forum.

 

[schonelucht]

So Semi deposits are a few thousands. On reason may be the risk associated with borrowing money to Tesla. To insure Tesla debt for 2year, you need to pay 9% upfront and 1% per year for a total of 11%. From a business point of view, reserving a Semi risk-free costs $2200.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

So Semi deposits are a few thousands. On reason may be the risk associated with borrowing money to Tesla. To insure Tesla debt for 2year, you need to pay 9% upfront and 1% per year for a total of 11%. From a business point of view, reserving a Semi risk-free costs $2200.

Cost of diesel will continue to rise in the coming months, which should lead to more Semi deposits, if Tesla can present a credible production plan.

As for overall Customer Deposits: moving in the direction the poll predicted, just three months behind.

 

[schonelucht]

Not really, most of the gains in the customer deposit are one-offs due to reclassification of prepaid plans, more cars in transit and a large number of Model 3 invites converted to not-yet delivered orders instead of being an indication of higher commited demand.

I am expecting an increase next quarter now that the M3 road show is on in China but nothing significant for semi or roadsters.