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CVPR 2020 Workshop on "Scalability in Autonomous Driving" LIVE DISCUSSION

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Yes, and you take the Waymo approach as the gospel, what of it? I believe I've stated it pretty clearly, I believe in the Tesla approach to FSD, that is why I put my money in Tesla products.
Waymo is not an authority to me because I do not see me being able to use their product for the next 10 years. Someone, somewhere at some specific time and route can benefit from Waymo, but that's not a solution that provides value to me.
And I've seen more real progress on Autopilot (not articles/videos) then I've experienced with ALL other "FSD" claiming companies combined.

Yes, Karpathy is an authority to me on FSD.

Waymo has shown real FSD that Tesla has not shown yet. That is why I hold Waymo has an authority. But no, I don't take their approach as gospel. I try to listen to all approaches. I have great respect for Karpathy. But I don't ignore other experts either.

Your post clearly shows your bias. You reject any authority that you disagree with and you only accept authority that you agree with. Karpathy is not the only authority on FSD! You can think that Waymo is not useful to you because you can't use a Waymo car yet and that is fair, but they are an authority on FSD nonetheless.

Do people who work with hd maps even disagree that they require maintenance and might be cost prohibitive in the long term? I haven’t seen anyone contradict what Karpathy is predicting (no one is saying hd map construction and maintenance is cheap).

No, they don't disagree that they require maintenance. Don't be silly. Nobody is arguing that HD maps are free and require no maintenance. And like I said, maybe HD maps are too costly for Tesla. That could very well be true. The question is whether the cost and maintenance is an acceptable bargain for the benefits. Clearly, there are a lot of FSD company who feel the cost of HD maps is worth it. And if HD maps are a total dead-end and too costly, why does every company use them in their FSD?
 
@mspisars Yes, Tesla has made a ton of progress with AP. I love the progress that I've seen on my AP. But all that progress has been adding driver assist features. Waymo has literally built robotaxis that don't require a human driver in some locations. You can't compare the two. It's apples and oranges.
 
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This is the only “direct” answer (Albeit wishy-washy) I can find to the HD maps question, which is currently tied to Lidar. It seems the people working in the hd maps and Lidar space aren’t currently concerned about costs. They’re more focused on making fsd work first. Karpathy is saying that it’s likely that the hd maps approach is cost prohibitive in the long term, especially for more general fsd. I don’t think the people working with hd maps would disagree with that:

 
Karpathy is not the only authority on FSD! You can think that Waymo is not useful to you because you can't use a Waymo car yet and that is fair, but they are an authority on FSD nonetheless.
LOL, no Karpathy is not the only authority on FSD.
Waymo was an authority to me on FSD about for a good ~7 years, then they lost all respect and authority by completely failing to see the changing landscape and unable to adapt.

As for HD maps, no one, not your pet Waymo, or anyone else has come out and said, here are the costs of HD maps and here is how HD maps can be made scalable and manageable! NOT ONE OF THEM!
To me it sound like the Garmin/TomTom days where they are looking for a revenue stream down the road, what better way to get the revenue then to force your users to have to subscribe to a monthly/daily HD map updates?

What a scam!
 
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@mspisars Yes, Tesla has made a ton of progress with AP. I love the progress that I've seen on my AP. But all that progress has been adding driver assist features. Waymo has literally built robotaxis that don't require a human driver in some locations. You can't compare the two. It's apples and oranges.
You really don't hear what you don't want to hear.
You said you listened to the Karpathy talk from Monday.
He said (on the old ~8hr long video)
[~7:13:00 timestamp] The Correct Way - Karpathy says that the iterative approach to FSD is the "correct way" - small piece of functionality released and validated in the real world.
  • The active frontier is too big to try to implement in a big bang approach - or as Karpathy says "can't just in a binary fashion develop it and ship it"
I fully expect to see this practice continue.
 
It seems the people working in the hd maps and Lidar space aren’t currently concerned about costs. They’re more focused on making fsd work first.
But we do not live in some strange utopia, the costs are still being tracked and Google/Waymo will price the product based on the costs that they are trying to recover over time.

If it makes it cost prohibitive for 99.99% of the population, that REALLY sucks.
And Karpathy was more direct in the video, he did not say he thinks it could be cost prohibitive for generalized FSD, he said it would be cost prohibitive and a nightmare to manage for generalized FSD.
 
This is the only “direct” answer (Albeit wishy-washy) I can find to the HD maps question, which is currently tied to Lidar. It seems the people working in the hd maps and Lidar space aren’t currently concerned about costs. They’re more focused on making fsd work first. Karpathy is saying that it’s likely that the hd maps approach is cost prohibitive in the long term, especially for more general fsd. I don’t think the people working with hd maps would disagree with that:


Thanks for sharing. Like I said. Nobody is saying that HD maps are free or even cheap. The question is whether the cost is worth it. Karpathy says the cost is not worth it. But other companies obviously see value in using HD maps or they would not use them anymore.
 
You really don't hear what you don't want to hear.
You said you listened to the Karpathy talk from Monday.
He said (on the old ~8hr long video)
[~7:13:00 timestamp] The Correct Way - Karpathy says that the iterative approach to FSD is the "correct way" - small piece of functionality released and validated in the real world.
  • The active frontier is too big to try to implement in a big bang approach - or as Karpathy says "can't just in a binary fashion develop it and ship it"
I fully expect to see this practice continue.

Yes, I listened to the whole 8 hr workshop. I started this thread!

Yes, I am well aware of Tesla's approach to release FSD features piece by piece and Karpathy believes this is the best approach. Like I said, my model 3 has received new features piece by piece. But like I said, those features are L2 so far.

Waymo does not release FSD features piece by piece because they already have "feature complete"!

It's two different approaches:

Tesla started with L2 and releases features piece by piece and validates as they go. Tesla believes that this approach will get them to FSD when they finish all the pieces. It works great for Tesla's business model of selling cars.

Waymo already built "feature complete" FSD and is testing and validating to make it better.
 
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Yet Waymo has no functioning business model for their solution.
And we've covered this before, Waymo does not have "feature complete" FSD, unless you are changing the definition we agreed to in this thread.

Of course, Waymo has "feature complete" FSD. They have robotaxis that can handle all driving tasks, parking lots, highway, intersections, traffic lights, stop signs, even pulling over for emergency vehicles, yielding for pedestrians, etc. What feature do you think they are missing?
 
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Of course, Waymo has "feature complete" FSD. They have robotaxis that can handle all driving tasks, parking lots, highway, intersections, traffic lights, stop signs, even pulling over for emergency vehicles, yielding for pedestrians, etc. What feature do you think they are missing?
Wow, that did not take long at all...
What happened to this guy?
Yes, that is the same standard that I hold everybody to.

You seem to be completely forget/ignore your previous "agreements" really really fast.
 
Wow, that did not take long at all...
What happened to this guy?

You seem to be completely forget/ignore your previous "agreements" really really fast.

You are incredible. You are so dense. You are confusing L5 with "feature complete". They are different things.

And here is my quote:

When you say "solved FSD", I consider that to mean L5. So yes, if someone says that they have "solved FSD", I will hold them to the standard of L5, ie FSD that works everywhere.

I said if someone claims to have "solved FSD", I will hold them to L5. That was the "agreement". So, I was talking about L5, not "feature complete".

And as I have explained before, Waymo has L4, not L5.
 
Tesla must be using some voodoo magic to achieve the Birdseye view predictions shown above. I don't even understand where they are sourcing the data labels for the Birdseye view. If you look closely at the animation, you can see that the predictor can differentiate between drive in ramps vs curbs (see the red line on the right fade as it approaches a drive in ramp).

Seems possible to differentiate curbs vs ramps if they're doing per-pixel-depth using Pseudo-Lidar to generate this data.
 
Tesla must be using some voodoo magic to achieve the Birdseye view predictions shown above. I don't even understand where they are sourcing the data labels for the Birdseye view. If you look closely at the animation, you can see that the predictor can differentiate between drive in ramps vs curbs (see the red line on the right fade as it approaches a drive in ramp).
It's probably part of the Tesla secret sauce:
Q: How do you get Ground Truth for these networks, for example for curbs?
AK: Clean ground truth at scale is definitely the hard part :) , but I won't go into full detail here.
Tesla has been manually labeling curbs even before the birds-eye-view networks, e.g., for smart summon. I would guess Tesla is currently still manually labeling curbs (and not-a-curb for ramps), but with 3D labeling, it's much more efficient and accurate to have tooling reconstruct the 3D scene from video and telemetry.

For example, instead of drawing curb lines on every single video frame, the labeler can click a start point on the curb in the first frame and jump to the 36th frame of a 1 second clip to click the end point, and the labeling tool will generate a 3D line based on how the car moved that then the labeler can verify the curb is correctly positioned for all camera views (main, narrow, fisheye, pillar x2, repeater x2, backup) for the duration of the video. So while the process is still manual, the cost of generating this supervised training data has been reduced.

Tesla is probably also improving its tooling to incorporate pseudo-lidar as part of labeling. E.g., the manual clicks for drawing the lines could "snap" to detected edges or even be suggested for the labeler to confirm thus increasing efficiency and accuracy even more. Karpathy has mentioned multiple times that high quality training data is very important.
 
Can they stop for School Buses on multi lane roads? Yielding to other cars? Transport people with wheelchairs or mobility scooters? If the mapping and/or GPS goes down can it still find it's way? Can it clean off the dead bugs covering the cameras or sensors?
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It’s not super clear what is the boundary between normal maps and HD maps, but HD maps have higher detail. Normally HD maps are used to augment perception sensors, ie the car can use the map to see more/better than the perception sensors can see. To be able to this information it is often required to localize oneself in the map using a localization algorithm. Google have very high definition HD Maps made using Lidar pointclouds, once they localized themselves in these driving becomes very straight forward unless you hit an edge case. Elon Musk claims that this can make you stuck in a local optimum during development phase and that as humans can learn to drive without HD maps computers should be able to learn this also.

Humans learn to drive without pinging radio pulses from their nose so why has Tesla been stuck in the local optimum of relying on a crappy radar, mainly to produce phantom braking events, for the last 4 years?

Karpathy stated in Apr. 2019 that it's belatedly being used as a ground truth input to train vision NNs to accurately estimate depth to vehicles ahead, but even then this is still a dangerous crutch, since when moving at highway speed it cannot train NNs to recognise stationary obstacles which are essentially invisible to it.

This foreseeably leads [ given the known vagaries of human nature ] to the classic Tesla phenomenon of AP tilting at full cruising speed into large unrecognised stationary objects, the most recent example being a M3 ploughing into the roof of an overturned truck on a motorway in Taiwan.

In which case vision is presumably reporting "huge sudden discontinuity of motorway road surface dead ahead (i.e. end of drivable space)", radar says "fuggeddaboudit" and maps are apparently not consulted but (even non-HD maps) would return "we really should be seeing more motorway around here" -- nevertheless, the resulting decision from these conflicting inputs is in fact "föök it, full steam ahead, the hyperalert human will catch any glitch without even a warning tone, or, if not, that *sugar*'s probably insured!"

At this juncture I'd prefer the local optimum of sparing the life/limbs of any less than totally attentive human driver, at minimum by bleating a tone to indicate there is some weirdness ahead or better yet by applying full emergency braking.

Why is that so difficult for Tesla?

Why does map+vision not override the known unreliable radar?

If an earthquake in California opens a 100 foot gap in a highway flyover, would all the Teslas on AP by default just cram into the chasm?

If a 40 foot container falls off the back of a truck, perpendicular across a two lane highway, blocking it completely but just so happens to have a graphic painted on the side depicting a wide open road stretching off into an idyllic countryside and the lane lines perfectly match up
(the Roadrunner painting-a-tunnel-on-cliff scenario) -- how does AP/FSD @80mph deal with this? At the moment it certainly looks like full speed collision is what will happen.

At an individual level being stuck in a local optimum is preferable to being plastered over a pre-collapsed crash-attenuator @70mph after AP follows a fake line across a gore area (case of Walter Huang in CA), which HD maps would make impossible.
 
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My point was not that the idea was "new" but that we have a person deeply involved in this business saying that HD maps as of Monday, June 15th, 2020 are not scalable and are cost prohibitive for FSD.

It is not that someone 10 years ago said it so it must be true, it is someone who is daily trying to figure out how to solve this problem saying that this option is not going to work.

Tell that to mobileye, look like they werent given the memo and messed around and did the impossible. Large world scale crowdsourced HD maps. Quick send them an email to stop before they tear a fabric in the space time continuum.

Didnt they see Andrej talks?

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