Cyber truck will be the best selling vehicle ever

[SSedan]

If I'm allowed I will disagree with you on, well, pretty much everything. the million mile vehicle is not a fantasy. That happens all the time with large delivery vehicles Mercedes has emblems for cars that go a million miles. I think people will keep them once they get used to it. I'm at a quarter million miles now with the first generation model s. okay, maybe not first generation it is an AP1 vehicle. But still I'm at a quarter million miles on the original battery now! The newer technology of batteries is much better. I do expect these vehicles will last a million miles. Those small part replacements are nothing. Remember, airplanes do it all the time. most of the airplanes flying today are 50 years old! if you replace all the wearable parts, things can last a really long time when they're made of aluminum or, in this case, stainless steel.

I have owned several ICE between 200-300k here in Wisconsin where they had to deal with salt. Doing repairs myself I made it work. Neighbor works in agromomy puts on 60k plus a year driving all over to various farms he puts 300k on his domestic ICE trucks pulling a 2 4-wheeler trailer a lot of the time.
Contrary to what the koolaid drinkers here believe some folk do see ICE through to 500k+.
15 Cars With The Highest Mileage Ever Recorded

Someone will take a CT to a million miles but to pretend it will be any significant number of them is delusion.

The above article was just a quick search engine result.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

How are you going to “do the job” when your range is cut by 80% in the winter because you’re towing something?

You don't have the slightest idea what the new 4680 cells are capable of. Nobody does yet, so let's wait and see. Where are you getting an 80% cut in range? If that is somehow extrapolated from some other vehicle's numbers it is a useless comparison. Different model, different drivetrain, different cell technology, etc. etc.

Let's stop fear mongering and just wait and see what the numbers bear out. If you're right Cybertruck will see luke warm sales. If I am right it could be the best selling vehicle of all time.

We'll know in a little over a year.

Dan

 

[ThomasD]

So the cybertruck will have a one million mile battery. Will it also have a one million mile warranty? If tesla does warranty it for 1 million miles how many years should the warranty be? Hopefully more than 8

 

[alexgr]

The Ford F150 is currently the best selling vehicle and the Tesla cyber truck will walk the same path.

I don't know why CT is often compared to F-150. The claimed CT payload is 3500 lbs that is way more than what F-150 is capable of . It is in the F250/350 superduty range. If Tesla is truly capable to deliver on its promise of 50k for dual motor 3500 lbs payload and 300+ miles (without payload of course), then the CT will be a hit beyond the F-150 customer base.

That said, panel gaps are going to be just a terrible problem, no way CR will recommend CT.

 

[glide]

You don't have the slightest idea what the new 4680 cells are capable of. Nobody does yet, so let's wait and see. Where are you getting an 80% cut in range? If that is somehow extrapolated from some other vehicle's numbers it is a useless comparison. Different model, different drivetrain, different cell technology, etc. etc.

Let's stop fear mongering and just wait and see what the numbers bear out. If you're right Cybertruck will see luke warm sales. If I am right it could be the best selling vehicle of all time.

We'll know in a little over a year.

Dan

Nor do you. So stop making outrageous claims. Based on what we know today, what I said absolutely holds true. You have no evidence to the contrary.

 

[bruce4000]

Report from Fremont Police Dept that they saved $4k in a year on fuel costs and maint with a model S.Cyber truck will become the default police vehicle around the word. Fast, off road capable, lockable storage for weapons, more armored than standard car.

 

[ThomasD]

What works for one police department may not work for another. Is Fremont replacing their patrol cars with Teslas ? My calculations must be wrong. I come up with the Tesla being over 20,000 more to operate than the Explorer. In order for rural police departments, highway patrol and Sheriff departments to purchase Teslas the price would have to come down while range goes up. ICE manufactures give discounts to fleets, Will Tesla knock off 10 grand a car to fleet buyers A better comparison for the Explorer would be the Model Y You are comparing a 2014 Models to a newer Explorer. That Tesla will be out of warranty in 2 years.

 

[henderrj]

What works for one police department may not work for another. Is Fremont replacing their patrol cars with Teslas ? My calculations must be wrong. I come up with the Tesla being over 20,000 more to operate than the Explorer. In order for rural police departments, highway patrol and Sheriff departments to purchase Teslas the price would have to come down while range goes up. ICE manufactures give discounts to fleets, Will Tesla knock off 10 grand a car to fleet buyers A better comparison for the Explorer would be the Model Y You are comparing a 2014 Models to a newer Explorer. That Tesla will be out of warranty in 2 years.

I think you may have missed a point. The cybertruck will actually cost less than the explorers. And it will be a more capable vehicle. it should be interesting to see what happens over the next few years.

 

[P3dStealth]

Report from Fremont Police Dept that they saved $4k in a year on fuel costs and maint with a model S.Cyber truck will become the default police vehicle around the word. Fast, off road capable, lockable storage for weapons, more armored than standard car.

It's not all it seems. The average annual repair cost was $4865 for the Tesla, the cost of the used model S (2014) was $61,478 and it needed $6,774 in modifications above standard build cost. A new ford is $40,500 and it comes with a warranty that is actually honored (if you have a tesla you know why I said that). They used 16 months of data from the Tesla vs 58 months of the ford and every other vehicle. It literally says that. They calculated average vehicle maintenance over the whole fleet of other vehicles. It includes f150, chevy caprice and tahoe.

So much more to consider. If you jump a curb in a model S that battery is 15k. If you damage the body all repairs are significantly more than a ford.

I'm not saying it can't be done. I am saying there is more to consider. Cost wise I am skeptical they save any money in the end. Even saving 4k every 16 months in fuel they would not make up the additional cost of the vehicle new over it's 58 month service life.

This is also the same police department that became famous for running out of battery durring a pursuit. Everyone forgot about that real quick. The amount of time it takes to charge likely means they can't run continuously and will need more cars.

Fremont police Tesla runs low on juice during high-speed chase – The Mercury News

 

[alexgr]

It's not all it seems. A new ford is $40,500

I guess that any police Ford vehicle should be a 3.0L 400 hp V6 Ecoboost version, which starts at $53,495. This is more than a faster dual motor Model Y. The warranty on Explorer is 3/36, and on Model Y it is 4/50.

I read a lot of negative things about Tesla warranties, but most of them about relatively minor issues and when something really serious happens (a motor failure, a battery failure) Tesla does not seem to be any worse than other manufacturers. Also, Ford has a really troublesome brand name after a not so famous anti-semite.

 

[glide]

I think you may have missed a point. The cybertruck will actually cost less than the explorers. And it will be a more capable vehicle. it should be interesting to see what happens over the next few years.

Oh really? You know what the fleet pricing on an explorer is for every department in the country? They aren’t paying MSRP you know.

 

[P3dStealth]

I guess that any police Ford vehicle should be a 3.0L 400 hp V6 Ecoboost version, which starts at $53,495. This is more than a faster dual motor Model Y. The warranty on Explorer is 3/36, and on Model Y it is 4/50.

I read a lot of negative things about Tesla warranties, but most of them about relatively minor issues and when something really serious happens (a motor failure, a battery failure) Tesla does not seem to be any worse than other manufacturers. Also, Ford has a really troublesome brand name after a not so famous anti-semite.

The report says exactly what they pay. I didn't make that number up. I read the report. I didn't make any of the numbers up it's from the report. Ford is $40,500. New.

Also every ford police interceptor comes with 5yr 100,000 miles warranty.

 

[alexgr]

The report says exactly what they pay. I didn't make that number up. I read the report. I didn't make any of the numbers up it's from the report. Ford is $40,500. New.

Also every ford police interceptor comes with 5yr 100,000 miles warranty.

Thanks. I've actually found a Ford Explorer price list for police departments (in Nevada).
https://purchasing.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/purchasingnvgov/content/Contracts/Vehicles/1-2pjwford(1).pdf
The base price is about $38k depending on the department. It comes with a 3.3L Hybrid engine and has a looooong list of options.
However, the stated warranty was 3/36 not 5/100.

One interesting option is ballistic armor for the doors for several grands. I wonder if CT will qualify for level II or even level III protection. Anyway CT has some ballistic protection included in the price, and if we go with the basic version that price is $40k.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

I drive my cars to about 250,000 miles - about to die hard (from major malfunction, pervasive rust, or spontaneous combustion).
Ergo a million-mile vehicle will last me about 4 ICE vehicles' worth. Even at 2-3, given that I now work from home and have passed half a century, I'm likely to not drive long & hard much more (no commuting, eventual retirement). If I do end up putting real miles on it, they'll likely lean toward low-impact highway use. Give me a really durable vehicle, and yeah a million-mile Cybertruck will probably outlast me.

 

[CyberGus]

... yeah a million-mile Cybertruck will probably outlast me.

Put me in your will

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Passing it on to the kids is another reason to get a million-mile vehicle even if I won't drive it that far.

BTW: a theory on the 1M-mi range is less anxiety about enrolling it in the Robotaxi service. I can make the thing pay for itself and still have it outlast me.

 

[ThomasD]

I hope that companies that work trucks hard day in and day out and also tow heavy loads purchase the cybertruck and work it hard. Then compare the operating costs for the cybertrucks to their ICE trucks. Since the 500 mile cybertruck will weigh close to a 3/4 to one ton pickup The 3 year operating cost of this company truck is just over 8.000 dollars Hopefully the cybertruck will be cheaper to operate
This 2017 GMC Sierra 3500 Diesel Towed for 22,000 of Its 24,750 Miles: How Has It Held Up? | PickupTrucks.com

 

[SO16]

Let’s just say that the CT will also attract buyers who never wanted a pickup. I am one. No worrying about dents, scratches or body rust would be great. Tri on order and been looking at airstreams.

But I can’t say it would be the last. Tesla has a habit of really improving their vehicles. I’m trying real hard to not upgrade from my Model S to plaid.

 

[Blup85]

Just need to add, One big reason Agencies won't buy a Tesla for fleet is perception. Tesla is locked in to a "luxury" brand which good or bad doesn't translate to the public as a wise expenditure, even though the MS or CT wildly outperforms the crap fleet managers buy and would actually save the department money over its lifespan in the department. I know, because I've tried to persuade them. Facts don't matter... it's going to be a slow crawl. It's got to come from the top.

 

[RefreshedP]

Many interesting points. I believe the CT could be a good selling truck in time. One of the biggest factors or hurdles to overcome is brand biased in the truck community. For majority of owners, at least the ones I'm around, which most all buy trucks every 2 or so years. Tend to stick to one brand. Your either a Ford guy, Chevy guy or ram guy. It doesn't matter what motor, what trans, Interior features it comes with, they will stick with there own brand. None of them I have talked to have any interest in the CT.