Cyber truck will be the best selling vehicle ever

[SO16]

Many interesting points. I believe the CT could be a good selling truck in time. One of the biggest factors or hurdles to overcome is brand biased in the truck community. For majority of owners, at least the ones I'm around, which most all buy trucks every 2 or so years. Tend to stick to one brand. Your either a Ford guy, Chevy guy or ram guy. It doesn't matter what motor, what trans, Interior features it comes with, they will stick with there own brand. None of them I have talked to have any interest in the CT.

....until you pull up in your Cybertruck next to their “princess wagon” and they see first hand how much better the CT is.

Before the iPhone came out, people thought they just wanted a better physical keyboard on their phones. The CT will be a case of people realizing how good it is...in time. Already over 700k reservations for it.

Based on the Nikola Badger refund amount, I think there were like only 27k reservations for that.

 

[RefreshedP]

....until you pull up in your Cybertruck next to their “princess wagon” and they see first hand how much better the CT is.

Before the iPhone came out, people thought they just wanted a better physical keyboard on their phones. The CT will be a case of people realizing how good it is...in time. Already over 700k reservations for it.

Based on the Nikola Badger refund amount, I think there were like only 27k reservations for that.

If the reservation fee was say 2500 or 5000. We would have a little better realization of actual demand.

 

[SO16]

If the reservation fee was say 2500 or 5000. We would have a little better realization of actual demand.

Yes, yes. Ive heard this “viewpoint” before.

But there’s obviously some interest. Most people wouldn’t put down $100 just for the “giggles”.

 

[XLR82XS]

Let's see it can surpass 21,529,464. [VW Beetle]

 

[SO16]

Let's see it can surpass 21,529,464. [VW Beetle]

....started in 1938. Would be nice. Not sure about you but I doubt I’ll be around in 82 years to find out.

 

[ThomasD]

I wonder if Tesla could beat F150 sales. They may take some sales away from the F150. But I wonder if they could overtake them
Can the Cybertruck do it.
Over the past three years, Ford averaged about 900,000 F-150’s sold per year. If you divide that by 365, it sells 2,486 F-150 trucks per day, every day. That translates to 103 F-150 pickups per hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Ford has sold 1.7 trucks per minute, every minute of the day, for the past three years.

 

[CyberGus]

I'm sure Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make, but it will be some time before their production capacity can match the F-150 or other popular ICE trucks.

 

[mark95476]

This is going to be very interesting to watch.

CyberTruck is going to take market share away from all of the incumbents. I think it's just a matter of how fast. Ford has their own electric F150 which will cannibalize their gasser sales. However, I think Ford has a significant problem since the recent Battery Day revealed Tesla's new 4680 cells for both energy and structure.

I wonder if Tesla could beat F150 sales. They may take some sales away from the F150. But I wonder if they could overtake them
Can the Cybertruck do it.
Over the past three years, Ford averaged about 900,000 F-150’s sold per year. If you divide that by 365, it sells 2,486 F-150 trucks per day, every day. That translates to 103 F-150 pickups per hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Ford has sold 1.7 trucks per minute, every minute of the day, for the past three years.

 

[firsttruck]

Many interesting points. I believe the CT could be a good selling truck in time. One of the biggest factors or hurdles to overcome is brand biased in the truck community. For majority of owners, at least the ones I'm around, which most all buy trucks every 2 or so years. Tend to stick to one brand. Your either a Ford guy, Chevy guy or ram guy. It doesn't matter what motor, what trans, Interior features it comes with, they will stick with there own brand. None of them I have talked to have any interest in the CT.

Yes, a survey today would find very strong brand loyalty today. But right now it is all theoretical to these legacy truck buyers. It is at least 1.5-2.5 years before most will even see a Cybertruck in person. Once their neighbor's Cybertruck blows past them, and out pulls them, Cybertruck owning neighbor out spends them on toys (Cybertruck saves so much money on fuel that Cybertruck owners can buy more other TOYS), many traditional truck buyers will change their tune. Before a market disruption most people can not visualize how the new product is significantly better for them. Also because of the current Cybertruck order backlog, most traditional truck buyers have not reserved a Cybertruck yet and so they will not even get a chance to receive a Cybertruck before 2023-2025. There will be many more charging stations installed over the next 2.0-2.5 years so another obstacle that many perceive today will be gone by 2023-2025 when most non-Tesla owners will even get a chance to get a Cybertruck.

 

[sleepy3p]

I agree that people do not see the true value of the CT. You are absolutely right on your time frame of 2023-2025 before nonreservations holder will be able to buy a CT. Tesla reported over 600k preorders (they stopped counting months ago) and it doesn't include the standard range CT. The tera factory estimates 200k truck to be built in a year. Orders will go up the moment the truck gets released and I'm afraid it might be 5 years after before we see a standard range model for sale.

I have 2 CT on preorder with FSD at $8,000. For sure the FSD price will go up and the early demand for the CT will be insane. Expect a huge markup from resellers.

Yes, a survey today would find very strong brand loyalty today. But right now it is all theoretical to these legacy truck buyers. It is at least 1.5-2.5 years before most will even see a Cybertruck in person. Once their neighbor's Cybertruck blows past them, and out pulls them, Cybertruck owning neighbor out spends them on toys (Cybertruck saves so much money on fuel that Cybertruck owners can buy more other TOYS), many traditional truck buyers will change their tune. Before a market disruption most people can not visualize how the new product is significantly better for them. Also because of the current Cybertruck order backlog, most traditional truck buyers have not reserved a Cybertruck yet and so they will not even get chance to receive a Cybertruck before 2023-2025. There will be many more charging stations installed over the next 2.0-2.5 years so another obstacle that many perceive today will be gone by 2023-2024 when most non-Tesla owners will even get a chance to buy a Cybertruck.

 

[sleepy3p]

Brand bias is a huge for car enthusiast and larger for jeep and truck owners. If you look at tesla performance owners, you can see that a lot of previous sports cars including highly desirable models such as the Corvette and BMW M3. Most tesla performance owners will tell after owning a tesla, they can never go back to a ice car. Overall, It's a much better car!

It's amazing to me how many people have not test driven a Tesla and I believe that's why there is no interest. One drive and it'll blow your mind.

Many interesting points. I believe the CT could be a good selling truck in time. One of the biggest factors or hurdles to overcome is brand biased in the truck community. For majority of owners, at least the ones I'm around, which most all buy trucks every 2 or so years. Tend to stick to one brand. Your either a Ford guy, Chevy guy or ram guy. It doesn't matter what motor, what trans, Interior features it comes with, they will stick with there own brand. None of them I have talked to have any interest in the CT.

 

[henderrj]

I'm sure Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make, but it will be some time before their production capacity can match the F-150 or other popular ICE trucks.

I'm not so sure. They are building a dedicated factory for the cybertruck. They've already made near a half million model 3s, how long will it take them to reach that volume with the truck? Batteries will be the bigger bottleneck.

 

[Fred42]

Yes, yes. Ive heard this “viewpoint” before.

But there’s obviously some interest. Most people wouldn’t put down $100 just for the “giggles”.

A lot of people would put down $100 for the giggles, along with a little interest in the truck.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm sure Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make, but it will be some time before their production capacity can match the F-150 or other popular ICE trucks.

Personally, I give it 4 years. By the end of 2024 I think Cybertruck sales will pass F-150 sales.

Dan

 

[SO16]

A lot of people would put down $100 for the giggles, along with a little interest in the truck.

What’s “a lot”?

10%?

50%?

 

[sleepy3p]

Ford sells 900k f150 a year. Tesla needs another 3 terafactorys to be able to meet that capacity. So a factory in Asia, Africa, and South America. It might be 2 years before they finally get everything dialed in and another 2-4 years for those additional 3 terafactorys.

Personally, I give it 4 years. By the end of 2024 I think Cybertruck sales will pass F-150 sales.

Dan

 

[cusetownusa]

Wow, didn’t realize how many f150 were sold every year. Is that 900k number just for the US or global sales?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Ford sells 900k f150 a year. Tesla needs another 3 terafactorys to be able to meet that capacity. So a factory in Asia, Africa, and South America. It might be 2 years before they finally get everything dialed in and another 2-4 years for those additional 3 terafactorys.

...and yet we have no idea what the efficiency and productivity of a Tesla factory will look like in four years. With their pace of innovation,, it will certainly be leaps and bounds better than it is now.

Dan

 

[mark95476]

Agreed. GigaNevada was already one of the biggest manufacturing facilities in the world. It's not 100% built-out, either.

All of the newer factories (Shanghai, Berlin, Austin) are or will be a lot larger.

...and yet we have no idea what the efficiency and productivity of a Tesla factory will look like in four years. With their pace of innovation,, it will certainly be leaps and bounds better than it is now.

 

[Ulmo]

I think as you do, that Cybertruck conceptually fills a good market segment. However, I have a warning. Cybertruck has dragged its feet being released, I suppose being held up by factory space and development teams being unavailable. Well, now that it's coming, I want to remind social media people of the proper network effect, not poisoning the network effect.

It is this:

DON'T advertise the Tesla Cybertruck: If it is good enough, it should sell itself.

Tesla snobs: DO NOT BUY the Cybertruck. I know you want one, but you will not help the cause of electric vehicles if a bunch of ex-Prius owners buy Cybertrucks, because, let's face it, you are not admired by pickup owners, and pickup drivers will forever think of Cybertruck as "disgusting", and the DNA of feature requests will enforce that, unless you keep your rotten mittens off, at least for a while (I say a few years).

DO NOT buy a Cybertruck unless you actually KNOW you will carry cargo with it that a Model Y cannot fit.

If you are a snob, just wait for your Cybertruck. DO NOT be "first". If Tesla Cybertrucks are successful, and are selling in the millions, you can sneak a buy of one in there when everyone else already has one, and you will be absorbed into the masses of people with them. If Tesla snob weenies are the only people who buy Cybertrucks, then they will be tainted, and they will not sell after the snobs have gotten theirs.

And yes, snobs are not enough to change the market to electric vehicles. Not by a long shot. Being a snob is not a virtue.

This strategy needs to be adjusted as needed, but likely it does not need any type of adjustment. Here is my metric: I think the proper time to wait for the non-snobs to find out about the CyberTruck before the snobs are allowed to purchase one is about two years after the factory can fill every order. If by two years after the factory can fill every order for the cybertruck Tesla still needs people buying it, then for whatever reason, the real pickup owners will have not learned of it, and any last-ditch effort to get it into people's hands can allow the snobs to go ahead and purchase Cybertrucks then.

So, the rule of thumb is if you are a snob, wait two years before buying a Cybertruck (from the date of massive shipments, which is a few years of S curve into production, so maybe 4 years?).

Alternatively, if you are a snob but you are also a good actor, then you can pull off cargo without being cult. You can put on man clothes, make sure you don't look anything like Tim Cook, act like you have a family, put a bunch of stuff in your bed (of your CyberTruck, which means the back cargo part in case you did not know that), and copy the other men. They might look at you funny, so you have to be a really good actor and know a few things about shop class.