Cyber truck will be the best selling vehicle ever

[keeney]

Pickup trucks usage stats do not completely reflect how buyers think emotionally. True, most people use their pickups as daily drivers most of the time. But they do occasionally use the truck for hauling stuff or towing stuff. Or they think they might someday.

And they want that capability ready and available. They don't want to rent a truck to pickup some mulch or buy some furniture, or help their kid move into their first apartment, or tow their travel trailer on vacation twice a year, or haul their motorized toys to the cabin on the weekends. They want to own the capability for the convenience and so as to feel self sufficient. Nobody enjoys renting a truck or depend on borrowing from others. Look at how they advertise pickups - they always show them getting stuff done AND facilitating recreational activities involving hauling or towing stuff. They never show people driving to the office every day in a pickup.

The CyberTruck may or may not get over that threshold emotionally. In my opinion, if it had a more conventional pickup truck bed that would help a lot. And its not just about the side sails. With those slots and the hatch in the bed, it just doesn't feel like the right vehicle to dump a load of of rotting yard compost into. Or even take home a yard of clean black dirt. Or haul demolition debris from ripping out an old concrete sidewalk. Maybe with a poly bed liner added in might help.

 

[henderrj]

I think as you do, that Cybertruck conceptually fills a good market segment. However, I have a warning. Cybertruck has dragged its feet being released, I suppose being held up by factory space and development teams being unavailable. Well, now that it's coming, I want to remind social media people of the proper network effect, not poisoning the network effect.

It is this:

DON'T advertise the Tesla Cybertruck: If it is good enough, it should sell itself.

Tesla snobs: DO NOT BUY the Cybertruck. I know you want one, but you will not help the cause of electric vehicles if a bunch of ex-Prius owners buy Cybertrucks, because, let's face it, you are not admired by pickup owners, and pickup drivers will forever think of Cybertruck as "disgusting", and the DNA of feature requests will enforce that, unless you keep your rotten mittens off, at least for a while (I say a few years).

DO NOT buy a Cybertruck unless you actually KNOW you will carry cargo with it that a Model Y cannot fit.

If you are a snob, just wait for your Cybertruck. DO NOT be "first". If Tesla Cybertrucks are successful, and are selling in the millions, you can sneak a buy of one in there when everyone else already has one, and you will be absorbed into the masses of people with them. If Tesla snob weenies are the only people who buy Cybertrucks, then they will be tainted, and they will not sell after the snobs have gotten theirs.

And yes, snobs are not enough to change the market to electric vehicles. Not by a long shot. Being a snob is not a virtue.

This strategy needs to be adjusted as needed, but likely it does not need any type of adjustment. Here is my metric: I think the proper time to wait for the non-snobs to find out about the CyberTruck before the snobs are allowed to purchase one is about two years after the factory can fill every order. If by two years after the factory can fill every order for the cybertruck Tesla still needs people buying it, then for whatever reason, the real pickup owners will have not learned of it, and any last-ditch effort to get it into people's hands can allow the snobs to go ahead and purchase Cybertrucks then.

So, the rule of thumb is if you are a snob, wait two years before buying a Cybertruck (from the date of massive shipments, which is a few years of S curve into production, so maybe 4 years?).

Alternatively, if you are a snob but you are also a good actor, then you can pull off cargo without being cult. You can put on man clothes, make sure you don't look anything like Tim Cook, act like you have a family, put a bunch of stuff in your bed (of your CyberTruck, which means the back cargo part in case you did not know that), and copy the other men. They might look at you funny, so you have to be a really good actor and know a few things about shop class.

hey, thank you so much for your input but, wow, I couldn't disagree more completely. I'm not sure where you get the idea of people not buying simply because somebody else buys something. Especially something that will sell in as much volume as that. no, having more cyber trucks on the road will cause more sales. It always works.

I also think it's ridiculous to tell somebody don't buy something that you want just because you want it. The best thing is for everybody to buy as many as they can and want.

I don't even understand the idea, from a psychological standpoint. I don't see anything in it that makes any sense. The cybertruck is so visually arresting that anyone who sees one, is going to wonder about it. Besides, is there even a chance of another truck being more quintessentially plebeian? most people are going to have to be convinced to buy it, not convinced to stay away from it. Even if they get angry and hate it because it's not gas guzzling and throwing black smoke everywhere, they're still going to wonder. More cyber trucks on the road means more cybertruck sales.

Besides, it's going to be at least two years before Tesla even works through the pre-order list. And that's once they get manufacturing going! What's the point in anybody waiting? There'll be plenty of new interest once manufacturing catches up to demand.

Still, who knows, maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about.

 

[CyberGus]

I think as you do, that Cybertruck conceptually fills a good market segment. However, I have a warning. Cybertruck has dragged its feet being released, I suppose being held up by factory space and development teams being unavailable. Well, now that it's coming, I want to remind social media people of the proper network effect, not poisoning the network effect.

It is this:

DON'T advertise the Tesla Cybertruck: If it is good enough, it should sell itself.

Tesla snobs: DO NOT BUY the Cybertruck. I know you want one, but you will not help the cause of electric vehicles if a bunch of ex-Prius owners buy Cybertrucks, because, let's face it, you are not admired by pickup owners, and pickup drivers will forever think of Cybertruck as "disgusting", and the DNA of feature requests will enforce that, unless you keep your rotten mittens off, at least for a while (I say a few years).

DO NOT buy a Cybertruck unless you actually KNOW you will carry cargo with it that a Model Y cannot fit.

If you are a snob, just wait for your Cybertruck. DO NOT be "first". If Tesla Cybertrucks are successful, and are selling in the millions, you can sneak a buy of one in there when everyone else already has one, and you will be absorbed into the masses of people with them. If Tesla snob weenies are the only people who buy Cybertrucks, then they will be tainted, and they will not sell after the snobs have gotten theirs.

And yes, snobs are not enough to change the market to electric vehicles. Not by a long shot. Being a snob is not a virtue.

This strategy needs to be adjusted as needed, but likely it does not need any type of adjustment. Here is my metric: I think the proper time to wait for the non-snobs to find out about the CyberTruck before the snobs are allowed to purchase one is about two years after the factory can fill every order. If by two years after the factory can fill every order for the cybertruck Tesla still needs people buying it, then for whatever reason, the real pickup owners will have not learned of it, and any last-ditch effort to get it into people's hands can allow the snobs to go ahead and purchase Cybertrucks then.

So, the rule of thumb is if you are a snob, wait two years before buying a Cybertruck (from the date of massive shipments, which is a few years of S curve into production, so maybe 4 years?).

Alternatively, if you are a snob but you are also a good actor, then you can pull off cargo without being cult. You can put on man clothes, make sure you don't look anything like Tim Cook, act like you have a family, put a bunch of stuff in your bed (of your CyberTruck, which means the back cargo part in case you did not know that), and copy the other men. They might look at you funny, so you have to be a really good actor and know a few things about shop class.

 

[mark95476]

That post by Ulmo was complete gibberish. I'm glad someone parsed it and summarized it for us.

 

[ChrisOtt]

I’m still looking forward to the cybertruck, but I have a feeling some of the other entrants might have more of an ideal size.. the fisker render from yesterday caught my eye.

was also hoping for a December update to tide us over a few months...

 

[FHWizard]

I think the Cybertruck will grow on people once they're seen around on the roads and people start to understand both the physical (load capacity etc.) and tech advantages.
I don't know that it will be the best selling vehicle ever (or will hold that title very long) once cyber crossovers and vans are marketed with the same cost cutting steel angular design and durability.
Style is subjective and constantly fluid but out and out value can bend opinions very quickly.
Once people see the benefit of no paint, durability and greatly reduced maintenance intervals and costs, I think the cybertruck will go down in history as the vehicle that primed the pump so to speak especially if L5 autonomy is achieved.
There will still be supercar aficionados who can afford the fine art specimens from Bugatti et al, but a $25K EV that drives itself is where I see the industry moving to within the next decade.

 

[David.85D]

Maybe Telsa will build 100 preproduction trucks and send them out to farmers, ranchers. contractors and heavy equipment owners and operators. See what these trucks are capable of. Can these trucks be modified to suit users wants and needs? For instance how long can you run a welder without draining the battery so far down that you will have a hard time getting out from the middle of nowhere. Musk never said how long it would take to charge the ATV.

I know it’s been awhile but the welding application is pretty huge. A sizable welder might be pulling 6kW (say 200A at 30V). And in reality it’s intermittent load, not continuous.

If the long range has a 200 KWh battery, you could weld 8 hours straight and only consume 1/4 of the battery.

and that’s not a load that would stress the Tesla battery - they are delivering 15kW to 20kW each hour when you drive on the highway.

 

[glide]

I know it’s been awhile but the welding application is pretty huge. A sizable welder might be pulling 6kW (say 200A at 30V). And in reality it’s intermittent load, not continuous.

If the long range has a 200 KWh battery, you could weld 8 hours straight and only consume 1/4 of the battery.

and that’s not a load that would stress the Tesla battery - they are delivering 15kW to 20kW each hour when you drive on the highway.

You know Ford already has production vehicle that can do this without draining the fuel source the vehicle runs on, right?

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

CT design is very polarizing and some will hate it and some will love it. The CT will have major road presence and people will get used to its looks because there will be so many on the road for the years to come.

Just like the fugly Prius. Now we are used to seeing that ugly thing everywhere...

 

[TessP100D]

Just like the fugly Prius. Now we are used to seeing that ugly thing everywhere...

Very well said.

 

[csphili]

Just like the fugly Prius. Now we are used to seeing that ugly thing everywhere...

Very well said.

I'll be replacing my Prius with a Cybertruck. Is this an aesthetic upgrade? Downgrade? Lateral move?

Tell us what you think in the comments. Be sure to smash the "like" button and ring the bell for notifications!

 

[ShaneC]

Yea i dont know about all this, I think tesla fanboys will love it, but conventional truck owners wont see the appeal. All the accessories that normally fit their truck wont fit the CT. Like Roof racks for ladders and kayaks, or some toolchest drawers that go in the bed of the truck. I really dont think a truck that breaks all the molds like this will be best selling. Will it sell well? Yes? Best selling? Probably not

 

[David.85D]

Just like the fugly Prius. Now we are used to seeing that ugly thing everywhere...

The other part of it is the weird Prius design excluded a number of drivers that couldn’t adjust the seat/mirrors/ etc to deal with the major blind spots. It’s not just fugly. The weird design choices are limiting.

 

[Bridor]

I think the Prius is ugly, but I love the design of the Cybertruck. I do not like the looks of current trucks on the road. I think they are ugly and I have been waiting for something like the Cybertruck for so long.

Brent

 

[TessP100D]

Hey Bridor, I know you do not like Ford, and that’s fine. with the delays of the Ct to who knows really…what about Rivian?

 

[Bridor]

Rivian is so ugly with those strange headlights. Also, the supercharger network is by far the best one. I have used the Electrify America one and I had too many issues. I really, really love the design of the Cybertruck. I know it is not for everyone, but for me, it feels like something that could drive off of a futuristic movie set (I love sci-fi movies).

Brent

 

[alexgr]

If the outlook of the CT production will continue to be grim by the time of 4680 Model Y production ramp up, I may jump the wagon.

 

[Fred42]

If the outlook of the CT production will continue to be grim by the time of 4680 Model Y production ramp up, I may jump the wagon.

OK but the 4680's might be the hold-up for the CT, so the Y with 4680's might not be available first.

 

[PointHope]

Cybertruck is going to kill Ford.
Stupid POS Prius already killed Toyota in in 1997.
You have to pay someone to take ownership of a used POS Prius.
Tesla owned Toyota before Tesla even existed.
Toyota is total joke.

 

[PointHope]

Likely the Cybertruck will be a 2+ million mile rig, given the simplicity.
Cybertruck is going to eat Ford and Toyota.