Cyber truck will be the best selling vehicle ever

[CyberGus]

Agility is one of Tesla's strengths. They can ramp production significantly faster than the rest of the industry, and will have the best-selling EV truck in 2023 and beyond.

 

[Ogre]

I bet Tesla will make at least double the number of f150s in 23 vs fords 22-23 production numbers combined.

Model Y & Model 3 ramp up was ~15k cars in the first quarter and ~35k in the second quarter of production with each subsequent quarter being a bit higher. I’d expect the CT ramp to be similar, hitting “Volume Production” of ~70k trucks/ quarter in 3rd or 4th Q 2023.

 

[TessP100D]

Agility is one of Tesla's strengths. They can ramp production significantly faster than the rest of the industry, and will have the best-selling EV truck in 2023 and beyond.

Now who’s moving the goal posts?

can you imagine … a big white bear dragging the goal post on the field?

 

[MrWorldbeater]

I think 2021 has been a bizarre inflection point.

Usually when you have a paradigm shift, it is more subtle. This time around, it was quite clearly sometime during the spring or early summer of this year.

That was the moment all of the major auto makers heard a giant sucking sound coming out of their wallets. The Model 3 and the Model Y had hit their stride and were truly starting to just demolish the auto market.

Just a few years ago the CEO of Ford called EVs a science project for nerds. Now he says it’s the future of all cars (even though he suggests 50% of their business will still be ICE in 9 years).

Ford is entering the EV market because they are scared .

Thanks for the response. It makes a lot of sense.

 

[MrWorldbeater]

I was looking at the Rivian, that's a nice little truck they made.
I'm typically not an SUV/ truck guy, but it looks good. But they have a ton of issues going on with the company

 

[Ogre]

I was looking at the Rivian, that's a nice little truck they made.
I'm typically not an SUV/ truck guy, but it looks good. But they have a ton of issues going on with the company

I don’t know about a ton of issues, but they have one giant issue. They are a month past “Production Start” and still grinding out trucks at a rate of one per day. All but a handful of those vehicles are in the hands of employees or investors.

 

[MrWorldbeater]

I don’t know about a ton of issues, but they have one giant issue. They are a month past “Production Start” and still grinding out trucks at a rate of one per day. All but a handful of those vehicles are in the hands of employees or investors.

Aren't they being sued by Tesla ?

 

[Ogre]

Aren't they being sued by Tesla ?

Sure. But that might cost them a few million dollars. A minor nuisance compared to being a truck company that can’t make trucks.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

They are a month past “Production Start” and still grinding out trucks at a rate of one per day.

That's what Musk was referring to as "CT could cost a million dollars each". Rivian is apparently spending upwards of a million dollars, after capital investments, to produce one truck.

($1,000,000 per day is 25 $40,000 builds. Tesla makes ~600 cars per day.)

 

[Ogre]

That's what Musk was referring to as "CT could cost a million dollars each". Rivian is apparently spending upwards of a million dollars, after capital investments, to produce one truck.

($1,000,000 per day is 25 $40,000 builds. Tesla makes ~600 cars per day.)

Just imagine if their IPO was a job interview.

Interviewer: “Hello Mr Rivian, I see here you are a truck manufacturer. What do you consider your strengths?”
Rivian: “I look good on camera, I‘m nominated for truck of the year, one of my trucks went all over South America!”
I: “Oh, that’s impressive, and what does your production volume look like?”
R: “98 trucks”
I: “Is that… per hour?”
R: “Umm… not exactly”
I: “Per day?”
R: “Did I mention the vloggers just love our truck, best truck they’ve ever driven!”
I: “Are you saying it’s less than 98 trucks per day then?”
R: “Maybe a bit less than 98 per day.”
I: “So weekly volume, how many trucks did you make this week Mr Rivian?”
R: “Well it was a little lower this week due to a small fire.”
I: “What is your peak weekly production then?”
R: “Seven”

 

[CyberGus]

I'm a right-brained technical guy. I hated my English lessons in primary school, analyzing pointless poetry, writing book reports, yuk! Until, that is, one teacher explained it this way: your greatest ideas will remain unrealized if you cannot articulate them.

Right now, Rivan has the best truck in the world that no one can build in quantity. I fear their dreams will be unrealized if they cannot solve this problem.

 

[MrWorldbeater]

I'm a right-brained technical guy. I hated my English lessons in primary school, analyzing pointless poetry, writing book reports, yuk! Until, that is, one teacher explained it this way: your greatest ideas will remain unrealized if you cannot articulate them.

Right now, Rivan has the best truck in the world that no one can build in quantity. I fear their dreams will be unrealized if they cannot solve this problem.

I like #s but I'm far from right-brained, if they have the best truck in the world, will someone just buy the company? Do the #s work out? Is it worth it?

 

[Ogre]

I like #s but I'm far from right-brained, if they have the best truck in the world, will someone just buy the company? Do the #s work out? Is it worth it?

They have the only electric truck in the world.

Therefore they have the best electric truck on the market.

I think the Cybertruck will be better in most ways but it’s a year out. The F150 might be competitive but likely six months out.

I doubt anyone is going to buy them because frankly what is the point of buying a company that has a truck design they can’t even build? Particularly not when they want $80b for it.

 

[NY_Rob]

Rivian needs to stop hosting wine and cheese parties in Venice and trying to look cute/say the right treehugger things... they need to put some work gloves on and build some F'ing vehicles. Yes, it's a great truck (it truly is)... the 7am shift just started.... put down the coffee and get to work!!

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Nobody (over-generalizing) is going to buy a company that can’t build its own product.

Most overlook Musk’s recurring comment: building a prototype is easy, building a factory to build lots of that product is hard.
Rivian is discovering building prototypes is easy, building lots of them at orders of magnitude cheaper than ~$1M/each is hard.

Rivian is making prototypes, not products.

 

[NY_Rob]

Rivian is making prototypes, not products.

From what we've seen so far... there is no "assembly line" even setup no less manned or running. The current vehicles produced by Rivian are 100% assembled by hand in a one vehicle at a time bay/pen. Kind of like how they build the super/mega $500k+ sports cars. That's why the media journalists that recently got a factory tour were forbidden to take photos of the "assembly line" and there was no discussion of or about that topic.

 

[TessP100D]

I was looking at the Rivian, that's a nice little truck they made.
I'm typically not an SUV/ truck guy, but it looks good. But they have a ton of issues going on with the company

What kind of issues?

 

[TessP100D]

Sure. But that might cost them a few million dollars. A minor nuisance compared to being a truck company that can’t make trucks.

Can’t make trucks????? You mean like Tesla?

 

[TessP100D]

Just imagine if their IPO was a job interview.

Interviewer: “Hello Mr Rivian, I see here you are a truck manufacturer. What do you consider your strengths?”
Rivian: “I look good on camera, I‘m nominated for truck of the year, one of my trucks went all over South America!”
I: “Oh, that’s impressive, and what does your production volume look like?”
R: “98 trucks”
I: “Is that… per hour?”
R: “Umm… not exactly”
I: “Per day?”
R: “Did I mention the vloggers just love our truck, best truck they’ve ever driven!”
I: “Are you saying it’s less than 98 trucks per day then?”
R: “Maybe a bit less than 98 per day.”
I: “So weekly volume, how many trucks did you make this week Mr Rivian?”
R: “Well it was a little lower this week due to a small fire.”
I: “What is your peak weekly production then?”
R: “Seven”

This is funny and true. All true. Well said.

 

[TessP100D]

I'm a right-brained technical guy. I hated my English lessons in primary school, analyzing pointless poetry, writing book reports, yuk! Until, that is, one teacher explained it this way: your greatest ideas will remain unrealized if you cannot articulate them.

Right now, Rivan has the best truck in the world that no one can build in quantity. I fear their dreams will be unrealized if they cannot solve this problem.

Well said Mr Bear. I’m guessing it’s nervous time over at Rivain. Money draining out faster than coming in.