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CyberTruck Image Leaked
- Thread starter hridge2020
- Start date
strider
Active Member
I think it is 4680 delays that are pushing CT. Tesla has no hope of meeting the price and performance claims without 4680s. I think Elon thought they were much closer to mass production of the 4680s than they were. As others have said, they will keep cranking out Ys while transitioning those to 4680s in order to prove out the tech, get an accurate handle on production costs, and then fire up CT.
As @Alset Srotom noted, that is 70k more than Tesla. Ford will crank out Lightning's as fast as they can get batteries. That is the only thing that could tip this in Elon's favor - vertically integrating battery production was genius. Everyone else is dependent on 3rd party suppliers (Technically Tesla is as well since Panasonic still makes the batteries, but under Tesla's roof with dedicated equipment and personnel).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There seems to be 2 issues with the CT roll out (at least to me):
- they can't hit their stated price goals (or even close to it) as of now. Some of it may have to do with adding more tech to it, but overall, they seem to struggle getting the cost to where they want it to be.
- creating a whole new production line for a radically different (and I'm not talking about the shape) truck is going to take a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if it took a year (caveat: I know nothing about production).
So, seems to me that we'll be happy if they can get a truck out by mid 2023, but it may very well be 2024.
- they can't hit their stated price goals (or even close to it) as of now. Some of it may have to do with adding more tech to it, but overall, they seem to struggle getting the cost to where they want it to be.
- creating a whole new production line for a radically different (and I'm not talking about the shape) truck is going to take a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if it took a year (caveat: I know nothing about production).
So, seems to me that we'll be happy if they can get a truck out by mid 2023, but it may very well be 2024.
So...I am considered an expert in manufacturing processes. Specifically, automotive. Building the line for a vehicle such as CT would not be difficult at all. Manufacturing is all about compartmentalization, where each build station is only responsible for a few components that take seconds to install.
The real tell here is that we still don't even have a production ready prototype. The design & specs have to be finalized in order to define the bill of material of the vehicle and establish suppliers from the required raw material on up to the finished component.
This vehicle was unveiled in 2019. There should have been a final design & spec established no more than 3 mo's after that. Another 6 mo's and you should be doing bay builds (builds of multiple units in single bays prior to the line being fully established). This should be followed by another 6 mo's of testing to hash out any issues with new components. The production line should be developed as components are validated.
This is a classic case of wanting to announce a product without any intention of releasing it in the near future to build hype. If we see deliveries in 2023 I will be shocked.
I'm just glad that there are others coming to the scene and lighting the fire under everyone. Imagine if no R1T, F150 lighting, Hummer EV, Chevy, Ram, Tundra... CT would be a 2049 vehicle... Trucks are such a big market, there's no way that any of them aren't moving fast, I'm sure there are many constraints that us internet keyboard warriors don't see. We just want it and want it now!! 
I am guessing 25% of those reservation holders actually wind up buying.
1. There are reports of folks having multiple reservations, one for each configuration leading to inflated numbers.
2. The reservation is only a $100 and refundable, leading to casual reservations. People just reserve it and decide later. If they made it $1000 or more non-refundable then I would have more faith in the reservation count.
3. When the CT was revealed it was the only EV pickup truck. Since then we have Rivian, Ford and now GM. Dodge is up next and Toyota is showing Tacoma prototypes.
4. Most expect the pricing to go up quite a bit. There is no way Tesla is releasing a dual motor full size pickup truck with 300+ miles of range for $49,900, or a single motor for $39,990, which is $5k less than an SR+. If they do I will buy it when they call my number, even if I don't like the way it looks.
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I have owned a couple Tacomas, great trucks. Toyota also enjoys some instant credibility when it comes to reliability. They would sell a ton of these.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla isn't going to rush a product to market because of the "competition". They have too much demand for existing, already profitable products. As a customer I don't like the Cybertruck delay but for the company it probably makes the most sense. It will come out when Tesla thinks it's the right time for the product, which means they have optimized it as much as they think they can and have figured out how to make it profitably.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I still love my 2011 Taco, an EV version would be great. Don't know if I'd get one though because of the lack of fast charge stations, (no Supercharger network), and it won't be stainless steel.
It would work for me since I don't go on adventures. I would just charge it at home like our Tesla. Fast charging stations will become more commonplace over the next few years.
Atomadam
Member
This is so ironic.I'm just glad that there are others coming to the scene and lighting the fire under everyone. Imagine if no R1T, F150 lighting, Hummer EV, Chevy, Ram, Tundra... CT would be a 2049 vehicle... Trucks are such a big market, there's no way that any of them aren't moving fast, I'm sure there are many constraints that us internet keyboard warriors don't see. We just want it and want it now!!
It’s unlikely anyone other than Rivian and Bollinger would be focused on trucks right now if the Cybertruck hadn’t been announced.
I wonder if Ford and Chevy are going to take it easy for a bit knowing the Cybertruck is on hold.
I doubt it. It seems like demand is higher than anticipated so they are investing heavily to ramp battery production as fast as they can. I think the traditional automakers could crank out these trucks pretty quick if they had batteries. Silverados/Sierras and F150s are their cash cows so they are must wins for both GM and Ford. They also have to be smart about it. They have to manage the pace of transition from ICE to EV and not alienate their existing customer base.
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True, but I think both companies are going to struggle to release trucks which are remotely affordable and profitable. There isn’t a ton of incentive to release 1000s of trucks when you are making a fraction of what they’d make selling them ICE or hybrid.I doubt it. It seems like demand is higher than anticipated so they are investing heavily to ramp battery production as fast as they can. I think the traditional automakers could crank out these trucks pretty quick if they had batteries. Silverados/Sierras and F150s are their cash cows so they are must wins for both GM and Ford. They also have to be smart about it. They have to manage the pace of transition from ICE to EV and not alienate their existing customer base.
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Yeah, this is the tough part of having to transition the business. $100k Hummers and Silverados for a while or low supply of the more affordable models.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Bollinger gave up on their B1 and B2 trucks recently, deciding instead to work on rolling chassis for larger commercial delivery trucks.
No, longer. There is a ton of time and work from conception to unveil. 36-48 mo's is typical including all of the prelim work. Designing the vehicle and doing the initial spec is the most time consuming.
Point is you typically do not unveil until you have your ducks in a row. For example, we just discontinued a model, canceling orders for 10's of millions of dollars due to the complexity of the vehicle. We have a standardized vehicle that has been in development for 4 years, and even though we have completed pre-series builds & validation of the units the last 18 mo's, we have not unveiled the product or started any preorder process. From the time we canceled orders for the previous model to full production of the new model will be less than 4 mo's. Our customers will essentially feel no impact from the change over. Completing their units with the current supply chain? That will all depend on how they spec their unit.
This is how an actual OEM does business.
