CyberTruck Image Leaked

[Zorg]

I doubt it. It seems like demand is higher than anticipated so they are investing heavily to ramp battery production as fast as they can. I think the traditional automakers could crank out these trucks pretty quick if they had batteries. Silverados/Sierras and F150s are their cash cows so they are must wins for both GM and Ford. They also have to be smart about it. They have to manage the pace of transition from ICE to EV and not alienate their existing customer base.

What GM's $7 Billion Investment Means for the 2024 Chevrolet Silverado EV

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www.torquenews.com

That'll be the interesting part. When there is a shift in tech, the price/value of the old one erodes quickly as the new one catches on. That has to be part of the OEM strategy and why they price the new EV high enough to keep people interested in the ICE trucks. Should Elon ever deliver a competitive truck at $50k-55k, that'll depress the ICE truck market quickly.

 

[raptor5244]

That'll be the interesting part. When there is a shift in tech, the price/value of the old one erodes quickly as the new one catches on. That has to be part of the OEM strategy and why they price the new EV high enough to keep people interested in the ICE trucks. Should Elon ever deliver a competitive truck at $50k-55k, that'll depress the ICE truck market quickly.

Yep. When it comes to trucks I think for the non EV enthusiast fuel savings would be the main incentive to make the shift. So if the EV prices are too high to offset their lower operating cost that will greatly slow the transition.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Yeah. But when the Cybertruck launched, it was one of the few electric trucks out there with plans in motion. Ford and GM didn’t announce anything until Tesla got into the truck game.

i can guarantee you that Ford was already working on the lightning when the CT was unveiled... you don't go from zero to production in 2 yrs

 

[ohmman]

i can guarantee you that Ford was already working on the lightning when the CT was unveiled... you don't go from zero to production in 2 yrs

Ford announced their intention to build an electric pickup at the Detroit Auto Show in January of 2019. They had test mules on F-150 chassis in July of 2019. (Source: Ford F-150 Lightning (electric pickup) - Wikipedia)

Cybertruck was announced November 21, 2019.

I would say it's correct that they were both being developed in conjunction, and not one as a result of the other.

 

[Ogre]

i can guarantee you that Ford was already working on the lightning when the CT was unveiled... you don't go from zero to production in 2 yrs

It’s speculation one way or the other. It’s likely they had designs for a truck. When they would have released it and whether the pricing would look like it does now is pure speculation. Seems to me the timing on their launch (both GM and Ford) was timed coincidentally after the Cybertruck announcement. Maybe it’s just natural evolution of the product line. Who knows.

Incidentally, while Tesla’s long silence on Cybertruck launch has been immensely frustrating to us. Imagine how much more difficult it would be for Ford and GM.

 

[Zorg]

In many ways, the noise about the CT was gravy for Ford and GM. They were busy developing their products while Tesla was banging the EV truck drum.

 

[Ogre]

My feeling is Ford and GM both had products sitting on a workbench which were mostly done but not profitable enough to push out the door.

Cybertruck was announced and got lots of traction so they accelerated their timelines.

Speculation no doubt.

Ford and GM have been making noise about having lots of EVs in the pipeline for years and they have largely not materialized. Saying “We’ll have 20 EVs out by 2022” is easy. Actually shipping them is a different thing entirely.

 

[NY_Rob]

Saying “We’ll have 20 EVs out by 2022” is easy. Actually shipping them is a different thing entirely.

Yeah, many of us on the Bolt forum called BS on that outlandish statement the day it was made. In a way, GM was fortunate the global pandemic gave them an easy out from having to deliver on that promise.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, many of us on the Bolt forum called BS on that outlandish statement the day it was made. In a way, GM was fortunate the global pandemic gave them an easy out from having to deliver on that promise.

Speaking of the Bolt, it sounds like GM is just going to quietly sunset it.

Chevy had the 3 best EV names and they’ve managed to irrevocably taint the reputation of all 3 brands.

* Volt - A solid hybrid but more or less left to rot on the vine after it’s first couple years
* Bolt - A solid EV but more or less left to rot on the vine after it’s first couple years
* Spark - An ICE vehicle… a great little car but it’s hard to upgrade a low end brand.

 

[raptor5244]

My feeling is Ford and GM both had products sitting on a workbench which were mostly done but not profitable enough to push out the door.

Cybertruck was announced and got lots of traction so they accelerated their timelines.

Speculation no doubt.

Ford and GM have been making noise about having lots of EVs in the pipeline for years and they have largely not materialized. Saying “We’ll have 20 EVs out by 2022” is easy. Actually shipping them is a different thing entirely.

It should be relatively easy for Ford, GM and Dodge for that matter to crank out a well put together EV pickup. I think the expectation is that the chassis, suspension, interior and overall fit and finish should be pretty good sine they have a lot of experience building pickup trucks. I think what everyone is waiting to see is how they well they execute on the EV powertrain and associated software UI and control systems. I also think everyone is waiting to see if their batteries start blowing up.

 

[raptor5244]

Speaking of the Bolt, it sounds like GM is just going to quietly sunset it.

Chevy had the 3 best EV names and they’ve managed to irrevocably taint the reputation of all 3 brands.

* Volt - A solid hybrid but more or less left to rot on the vine after it’s first couple years
* Bolt - A solid EV but more or less left to rot on the vine after it’s first couple years
* Spark - An ICE vehicle… a great little car but it’s hard to upgrade a low end brand.

Yep, this the result when you just dabble in the EV business and do not want to risk cannibalizing your existing ICE based business. I think the products they are releasing now are the real deal. You can see lot of engineering effort has gone into their Ultium architecture as well as the Ultifi software platform. GM has had to start staffing software developers as they try to migrate to a platform based solution. One smart move I see is that they are making the platform developer friendly.

Looks pretty good but time will tell if they can actually execute. Furthermore, I know many of us can't stand the traditional dealership buying experience but I think it will drive a lot of sales for the folks that prefer it. For some, there is a level of excitement that you get from seeing all the vehicles in a showroom and going for test drives vs. visiting a small Tesla store in a strip mall or buying based on pictures online.

 

[Ogre]

It should be relatively easy for Ford, GM and Dodge for that matter to crank out a well put together EV pickup. I think the expectation is that the chassis, suspension, interior and overall fit and finish should be pretty good sine they have a lot of experience building pickup trucks. I think what everyone is waiting to see is how they well they execute on the EV powertrain and associated software UI and control systems. I also think everyone is waiting to see if their batteries start blowing up.

Yep, this the result when you just dabble in the EV business and do not want to risk cannibalizing your existing ICE based business. I think the products they are releasing now are the real deal. You can see lot of engineering effort has gone into their Ultium architecture as well as the Ultifi software platform. GM has had to start staffing software developers as they try to migrate to a platform based solution. One smart move I see is that they are making the platform developer friendly.

Looks pretty good but time will tell if they can actually execute. Furthermore, I know many of us can't stand the traditional dealership buying experience but I think it will drive a lot of sales for the folks that prefer it. For some, there is a level of excitement that you get from seeing all the vehicles in a showroom and going for test drives vs. visiting a small Tesla store in a strip mall or buying based on pictures online.

View attachment 761520

If the Hummer and the Silverado are any indication Tesla doesn’t have a lot to worry about from GM. Their Ultium pack for the Hummer is about 18” thick and weighs 3500 pounds… not a lot of room left for the actual vehicle in that. Silverado cargo cap at 1200 pounds is pretty weak for a truck also.

Fords F150 Lightning is a lot more interesting.

 

[Ogre]

Addendum.

We’re 15 years into this new paradigm.

Phrases like “It should be relatively easy for Ford, GM and Dodge…” no longer cut it. No more free passes for slow-to-adapt legacy auto.

 

[raptor5244]

Addendum.

We’re 15 years into this new paradigm.

Phrases like “It should be relatively easy for Ford, GM and Dodge…” no longer cut it. No more free passes for slow-to-adapt legacy auto.

I hear you but do you think they were really trying? What is the incentive for them to shift to an EV platform? From a business perspective it didn't make much sense. Until recently, the battery technology hasn't been compelling enough for customers to make the switch. Lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety, etc.

The auto industry needed a Tesla to innovate and disrupt the market enough to force some change. Add in government mandates and here we go, an EV revolution on the horizon. The interesting thing is how many new companies want to get into the EV game. For some reason it seems like if you simply swap the ICE powertrain for that of an EV all of a sudden anyone can build a car?

In the long run I think Toyota will wind up being one of the most successful. They have ICE, Hybrid and soon BEV across so many models to meet many customers needs during the transition. Cars, trucks, SUVs, luxury models, economy, etc. They are a trusted brand and are making the necessary investments.

Toyota’s electric vehicle plans are getting bigger and more expensive

Lexus will become an EV-only brand by 2035.

www.theverge.com

Toyota’s new electric SUV has a solar roof and a steering yoke like Tesla

Toyota released new details about its upcoming EV.

www.theverge.com

 

[Ogre]

I hear you but do you think they were really trying? What is the incentive for them to shift to an EV platform? From a business perspective it didn't make much sense. Until recently, the battery technology hasn't been compelling enough for customers to make the switch. Lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety, etc.

You mentioned GM, Ram, and Ford. Over the past 4 years all of those brands have had declining sales every single year. Last year they all lost even more share as Tesla rolled over the lucrative mid-high end of the auto market. Tesla’s sales surpassed BMW‘s… not BMWs EV sales, their total sales.

GM shipped 26 EVs last quarter and Ford launched their Mustang and in spite of massive interest was only able to ship 27,000 of them. If Ford was only able to ship 27,000 Mach Es, what gives you confidence they will be able to ship 10s of thousands of the F-150 Lightning when they use more than twice the batteries?

It doesn’t matter if they were trying or not the results speak for themselves.

It is going to take them 5 years to get the infrastructure and supply chain in place to support the transition to EVs. In that time, Tesla is going to keep taking market share that whole time. GM is talking about having 30 GM capacity online in 3 years. Tesla very nearly has that now and is talking about triple that by end of the year.

The auto industry needed a Tesla to innovate and disrupt the market enough to force some change. Add in government mandates and here we go, an EV revolution on the horizon. The interesting thing is how many new companies want to get into the EV game. For some reason it seems like if you simply swap the ICE powertrain for that of an EV all of a sudden anyone can build a car?

Sort of like the cell phone industry needed Apple and Android to innovate and disrupt and force change?

GM is bragging about passing Tesla even as their stated 3-5 year goals (which they’ve consistently missed) barely equal Tesla’s current shipping numbers.

I’m not suggesting they will fail or Tesla will roll over them. But your suggestion that it will be “easy” is ludicrous. They are in for the fight of their lives at this point.

 

[Zorg]

If Tesla keeps growing at 50%, that's 1.4M cars in 2022 and over 2M in 2023. They will probably maintain high gross margins in 2022 since cars are so scarce. They gonna be throwing off tons of cash that they will plow back into new factories. They will be hard to catch.

 

[raptor5244]

You mentioned GM, Ram, and Ford. Over the past 4 years all of those brands have had declining sales every single year. Last year they all lost even more share as Tesla rolled over the lucrative mid-high end of the auto market. Tesla’s sales surpassed BMW‘s… not BMWs EV sales, their total sales.

GM shipped 26 EVs last quarter and Ford launched their Mustang and in spite of massive interest was only able to ship 27,000 of them. If Ford was only able to ship 27,000 Mach Es, what gives you confidence they will be able to ship 10s of thousands of the F-150 Lightning when they use more than twice the batteries?

It doesn’t matter if they were trying or not the results speak for themselves.

It is going to take them 5 years to get the infrastructure and supply chain in place to support the transition to EVs. In that time, Tesla is going to keep taking market share that whole time. GM is talking about having 30 GM capacity online in 3 years. Tesla very nearly has that now and is talking about triple that by end of the year.



Sort of like the cell phone industry needed Apple and Android to innovate and disrupt and force change?

GM is bragging about passing Tesla even as their stated 3-5 year goals (which they’ve consistently missed) barely equal Tesla’s current shipping numbers.

I’m not suggesting they will fail or Tesla will roll over them. But your suggestion that it will be “easy” is ludicrous. They are in for the fight of their lives at this point.

You’re right, I shouldn’t say it will be easy but I think they will be successful. What I am saying is that the traditional automakers have already figured out how to design and manufacture vehicles at scale. Many of their processes that they are already efficient at remain the same. Engineering, dealer network, marketing, much of the supply chain relationships. Now they basically need to do the same thing but with a different powertrain so they are not starting from scratch.

The other thing to consider is that not everyone desires a Tesla. Don’t get me wrong, I love my Tesla but if there were more EV options available I wouldn’t limit myself. For example, the new Cadillac Lyriq EV interior and exterior looks a lot nicer to me than a Model Y. If it drives like a Cadillac I would probably prefer it over the Y for the same money. I also consider myself an enthusiast so if Dodge released their “emusclecar” they have planned with more aggressive styling, magnetic ride suspension, sporty interior with recaro seats and ridiculous Dodge power then I would be interested. Then if Toyota had an EV Tacoma or when GM releases a $60k Silverado Trail Boss EV I definitely would pick those over the Cybertruck.

I agree that Tesla will enjoy continued growth with the Model 3 and Y but we really need others to do well. I really don’t want the auto industry to wind up like the cell phone industry where we are all driving an Android or Apple and they all look and drive the same.

Speaking of Apple, what do you think of the Apple car?

Apple Car: Apple's Now-Canceled Car Project: What We Know

Hundreds of Apple employees were working on developing an Apple-branded car aimed at consumers, but the project has ended.

www.macrumors.com

 

[raptor5244]

If Tesla keeps growing at 50%, that's 1.4M cars in 2022 and over 2M in 2023. They will probably maintain high gross margins in 2022 since cars are so scarce. They gonna be throwing off tons of cash that they will plow back into new factories. They will be hard to catch.

I agree they are well positioned but I think the market is too big for Tesla alone. There is also no reason that the rest of the market will not be able to deliver compelling EVs. They just needed a company like Tesla to force them to do so. Either way it will be fun to watch it all unfold.

 

[AndreP]

Tesla is putting out great numbers already but 97% of 2021 production was Model 3s and Ys, which share the same platform and a swath of parts. And it seems that ratio is unlikely to change drastically in the foreseeable future.

There is tons of room for competition and we need it, I’m definitely excited for the future of cars

 

[Zorg]

We need competition for sure. That would put pressure on Tesla to lower their prices and improve their customer service. A win for all consumers.