CyberTruck Image Leaked

[Ogre]

It's obvious that an AI engineer working on the bot isn't going to work on the CT rollout. However, at a macro level my statement was correct. It just seems that Tesla is spreading itself thin, working on a new bot when they haven't released CT, the Semi or the roadster that were announced years ago. Every company has finite resources and it appears that Tesla is investing resources in a new far fetched bot, when they can't even deliver on their backlog. It's as if Elon has product ADD.

Elon and the engineering team working on Optimus aren’t going to be able to fix the supply shortages which are at the heart of this.

The software and robotics engineers that are working on Optimus, many of whom were hired specifically to work on Optimus and have no automotive expertise.

I think fundamentally, Elon trusts the team running his automotive and battery teams enough where they can work independent of him chasing most of these issues.

 

[JRP3]

It's obvious that an AI engineer working on the bot isn't going to work on the CT rollout. However, at a macro level my statement was correct. It just seems that Tesla is spreading itself thin, working on a new bot when they haven't released CT, the Semi or the roadster that were announced years ago. Every company has finite resources and it appears that Tesla is investing resources in a new far fetched bot, when they can't even deliver on their backlog. It's as if Elon has product ADD.

Elon definitely has many ideas, which is why Tesla is so successful. He's also ambitious and optimistic, again leading to the success of the company. The downside is Tesla is almost always late with products. You can't have ground breaking products in new market segments while also having perfect productions ramps. However there is still no crossover between the bot and Cybertruck production. They've obviously put the Roadster on hold because it's a niche product which isn't even necessary, especially when their existing products are seeing even more demand than they expected. Elon recently spoke about the hold up from external suppliers as being the main problem with ramping production.

 

[RVAC]

Musk said flat out on the earnings call that any new model they produce is at the expense of existing volume. Doesn’t make any sense at all to release a $25k car when they can’t meet demand for their $45k car.

Once they’ve got wait lists down to something like 2 weeks instead of 6 months, and have the Cybertruck out, then they can start worrying about low end cars.

No point in pushing out a cheap car when they can’t keep up with demand for their current lineup.

Thing is you have to start design & engineering of the compact now if you want it to be ready sometime in say 2024, and that is quite an optimistic timeline already.

Cybertruck hopefully in 2023 isn't confidence inspiring either.

I'm curious how something with an exoskeleton can pass crash safety specs or have crumple zones. I'm curious how much headroom those poor back seat passengers will have with such a steep downslope. Or, depending on the seating position, will the driver smash his head on the cyberwindshield? I'm curious how having such tough glass will hinder rescue or cause unforseen complications. There's a reason why only the front glass is made so strong in cars. I'm hoping that a whole bar of LED headlights won't blind everyone in front of them. I'm curious how functional the high sides on a truck will be. Like was mentioned, I'm curious how men who work and play hard with trucks (with say, thick gloves, thick calloused hands, etc) will deal with such dainty buttons and touch screens or that ridiculous yoke steering wheel. Seems like a mismatch and that it's a posed to be a toy for EV evangelist instead of a work truck for workers.

Fair enough. I think it is safe to say the folks at Tesla know a thing or two about crash safety and crumple zones but it will certainly be interesting to see the crash test videos. From all the ride videos posted both rear headroom and driver seating position did not seem an issue, I doubt they only had people 5'8" and under riding in it. Lightbars aren't exactly unique to the Cybertruck. Bed side access I discussed in a previous post, never got a reply as to why it is so crucial. I agree that putting the tougher glass on the windows is quite pointless, as is the yoke (hopefully a normal steering wheel option will be offered). Not sure what you're referring to specifically but it's Tesla, buttons instead of touch screen controls for the interior won't ever be happening.

I'm curious how much those ridiculous offroading tires will destroy range. ...and finally, like I said before, I'm curious if even 500 miles will be enough. You'll lose 1/3 of that at highway speeds, 1/3 due to any weather/environmental/mud tires, etc, and whatever range is left will be cut in half when towing. Seems like effectively, when used for truck things, you might get 150 miles. Yes, that's technically enough to get from SC to SC, but, that's a drag. How will current SC setups accommodate CTs that are towing?

All concerns. Not insurmountable. Not saying it's certain. ...but I am waiting to be convinced.

I won't address these as they apply to any EV truck, they are not CT specific.

 

[JRP3]

I won't address these as they apply to any EV truck, they are not CT specific.

In fact they apply to every vehicle, it's just that with large fuel tanks and fast refueling stations everywhere it's not as much of an issue for ICE vehicles. As charge speeds increase and Supercharging locations increase it will be less of an issue. Also few people actually tow anything of size for long distances, those people shouldn't get an EV truck, yet.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Thing is you have to start design & engineering of the compact now if you want it to be ready sometime in say 2024, and that is quite an optimistic timeline already.

Cybertruck hopefully in 2023 isn't confidence inspiring either.

thank you.

if they would unveil a Model 2 *now* ... it wouldn't be until 2yrs from now before they start delivering them in volume. if they unveil one in '23 or '24 ... '25 and '26 will be the soonest to market. And at that point you will see A LOT more competition in the EV market across all segments than today.

and yes - trucks have a better margin than subcompacts and the Model Y has a better margin than other comparable sized cars... but at the same time: the Model Y is a nearly $60k vehicle and the CT was "promised" starting at $40k. So either the CT will cost substantially more ($70k is my guess) or the margins ain't that great.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

So long as Tesla has massively more orders than they can fill, they'll raise the price. Supply and demand. Not just as "greed", but as a necessary point of economic friction providing better results than simply choking on supply chain limits without other benefit.

 

[Zorg]

Elon and the engineering team working on Optimus aren’t going to be able to fix the supply shortages which are at the heart of this.

The software and robotics engineers that are working on Optimus, many of whom were hired specifically to work on Optimus and have no automotive expertise.

I think fundamentally, Elon trusts the team running his automotive and battery teams enough where they can work independent of him chasing most of these issues.

Time will tell. Maybe the bot is a stroke of genius and will change the world as we know it. Anything is possible.

 

[Ogre]

Thing is you have to start design & engineering of the compact now if you want it to be ready sometime in say 2024, and that is quite an optimistic timeline already.

Cybertruck hopefully in 2023 isn't confidence inspiring either.

if they would unveil a Model 2 *now* ... it wouldn't be until 2yrs from now before they start delivering them in volume. if they unveil one in '23 or '24 ... '25 and '26 will be the soonest to market. And at that point you will see A LOT more competition in the EV market across all segments than today.

My assumption is the $25k car will be a variant/ close cousin of the Model 3. It will not need extensive engineering or new equipment the way the Cybertruck does and will be able to come online quickly, similar to the way the Model Y did. They don’t need to unveil their new inexpensive car 2 years prior to launch. In fact there is no reason for them to since they know demand will exist and the Cybertruck has shown managing a giant wait list over multiple years is a pain. I suspect they will unveil it and roll it out 6-12 months after.

The Cybertruck “Hopefully“ coming in 2023 is concerning and personally I’m in wait and see mode. Just watching the Model Y ramp.

One thing which a lot of people missed is Musk said specifically that engineering and prep work for their other models is happening, they are just not entering production. So we should see some more progress on the Cybertruck in the mean time.

 

[henderrj]

Perhaps it's just me, but when I heard Elon say that there would be no new product development, I thought he meant entirely new products. Like the model 2, or whatever we're calling it. I took it that the Cybertruck and roadster were not a part of that statement. The roadster not likely to come out this year, probably not even next, but the Cyber track could. That's assuming my understanding is even close to correct.

 

[Ogre]

This is what Musk said during the product roadmap portion of the call:

We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars? So in terms of priority of products, I think the -- I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.

Emphasis mine. The impression that they are sitting on their hands with regards to these vehicles while waiting for the Model Y ramp to finish is incorrect. They are working on finalizing and getting the tooling ready to bring the Cybertruck online once they have Model Y production sorted and supply chain issues under control. Not just doing some work, they are planning on being ready to bring them to production.

He also said it is most likely that is what will happen. Seems pretty clear they are planning on launching these products in 2023, but want to avoid another big disappointment so are being careful about setting expectations.

 

[ohmman]

He also said it is most likely that is what will happen.

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely?

 

[Ogre]

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely?

Yeah.

New deadline is ”Eventually”.

I’m not holding my breath for any particular time myself either at this point.

Maybe a better estimate is 8k Ton gigapress installation + 6-12 months.

 

[RVAC]

thank you.

if they would unveil a Model 2 *now* ... it wouldn't be until 2yrs from now before they start delivering them in volume. if they unveil one in '23 or '24 ... '25 and '26 will be the soonest to market. And at that point you will see A LOT more competition in the EV market across all segments than today.

and yes - trucks have a better margin than subcompacts and the Model Y has a better margin than other comparable sized cars... but at the same time: the Model Y is a nearly $60k vehicle and the CT was "promised" starting at $40k. So either the CT will cost substantially more ($70k is my guess) or the margins ain't that great.

I wouldn't necessarily want them to unveil the compact this year but when he was asked I was expecting to hear that they had started work on it. Then again for that to have happened the design & engineering on the CT would have had to be wrapped up, but for whatever reason that is clearly not the case despite it being just over 2 years since the unveil.

Yeah that $40k base version won't happen. That said what the Cybertruck allows you to do, unlike a compact, is start from high priced trims and eventually work your way down.

My assumption is the $25k car will be a variant/ close cousin of the Model 3. It will not need extensive engineering or new equipment the way the Cybertruck does and will be able to come online quickly, similar to the way the Model Y did. They don’t need to unveil their new inexpensive car 2 years prior to launch. In fact there is no reason for them to since they know demand will exist and the Cybertruck has shown managing a giant wait list over multiple years is a pain. I suspect they will unveil it and roll it out 6-12 months after.

This is probably something @Alset Srotom can comment on given it appears he works in the field. Even by picking from the parts bin I doubt it is feasible in less than 24 months, keep in mind they also have to build a factory for it. My impression from the call is that Elon is betting big on robotaxi's happening by then, hence the compact not being all that important. Not exactly confidence inspiring given his track record on FSD predictions.

He also said it is most likely that is what will happen. Seems pretty clear they are planning on launching these products in 2023, but want to avoid another big disappointment so are being careful about setting expectations.

I don't know, Elon is not one who sandbags. When he uses the word hopefully and generically lumps it in with Semi & Roadster it gets me a little worried that we could be looking at Q4 2023 or Q1 2024 for deliveries.

 

[Alset Srotom]

I wouldn't necessarily want them to unveil the compact this year but when he was asked I was expecting to hear that they had started work on it. Then again for that to have happened the design & engineering on the CT would have had to be wrapped up, but for whatever reason that is clearly not the case despite it being just over 2 years since the unveil.

Yeah that $40k base version won't happen. That said what the Cybertruck allows you to do, unlike a compact, is start from high priced trims and eventually work your way down.



This is probably something @Alset Srotom can comment on given it appears he works in the field. Even by picking from the parts bin I doubt it is feasible in less than 24 months, keep in mind they also have to build a factory for it. My impression from the call is that Elon is betting big on robotaxi's happening by then, hence the compact not being all that important. Not exactly confidence inspiring given his track record on FSD predictions.



I don't know, Elon is not one who sandbags. When he uses the word hopefully and generically lumps it in with Semi & Roadster it gets me a little worried that we could be looking at Q4 2023 or Q1 2024 for deliveries.

The rumored Model 2 would have few standard components due primarily to the size difference. When a design shrinks it's not as easy as making the same parts, just smaller. Everything changes.

They could use current 3/Y line but the footprint of the line is increasing by ~30% and considering they are still using a tent at Freemont to house some processes, that's not happening.

 

[qdeathstar]

Truly a face only a mother could love. It cracks me up to think of grown ass men driving around in these things.

CANT WAIT

 

[Ogre]

Shouldn't it be hidden underneath the hood when it's at a resting position?

Nah, they leave it up like it’s flipping the planet the bird.

They call it “Resting Wiper Face”

 

[ToasterStrudel]

Truly a face only a mother could love. It cracks me up to think of grown ass men driving around in these things.

idk im 29 and that *sugar* looks fire (wish there was a way to eliminate the wiper. but i do love the flush look of the hood and ws

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Truly a face only a mother could love.

I’m betting she won’t. Keep telling m’lady I want something so ugly and hard to drive she won’t commandeer it.

 

[Doc Brown]

Cybertruck is streamlined for better aero/efficiency . . .

 

[Ogre]

There is no getting around it, this is not an attractive vehicle. The shape is weird, the wheels are ugly, the fender flares suck, the yoke steering wheel is not practical if you have to go hand over hand to turn and it is the same color as my kitchen sink. If it was the only EV pickup available at the price points they proposed then it would sell but I am not so sure anymore. There is compelling competition now. Once Ford and GM ramp up their battery production and get past the mega priced launch editions, 9/10 people in the market will go with a Silverado or F150 over this. Most just want a more practical pickup with decent range. Tesla should have just used their same design language that works well on a full size pickup and call it a day.

I still see no mention of a frunk on this thing which would be a huge oversight in the EV truck market. It will not be the first choice as a work truck either as it lacks all the accessories that truck owners/fleet customers typically need. This will be a niche vehicle for the Tesla fan base.

Maybe they should just make a normal truck.

But right now they would be crazy not to sell this vehicle which has hundreds of thousands of pre-orders.

If you see no mention of a frunk… I have to ask where have you looked for information on the Cybertruck?

Because 1 of the 6 or so blurbs that wasn‘t purged from the Cybertruck site mentions the frunk.